南华期货丙烯产业周报 ——成本抬升，供应缩减 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月01日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响丙烯走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端成为短期主要扰动：成本端原油丙烷中长期来看依然会受到基本面及地缘的共同影响，但短期地缘 占据主导，周内美伊局势持续发酵，推动原油价格上涨，如果美国持续对伊朗进行威胁，风险溢价短期依然 会存在。 2）供应收缩带来供需差好转：本周供需差大幅回落，主要受到PDH检修的影响，近期金能、万华、巨正源等 陆续进入检修状态，PDH开工从76%大幅下行至60%，目前看金能、巨正源等预期都要检修到2月份，短期依 然提供支撑，但需关注丙烯价格上涨后下游的接受度。 3）情绪传染：近期盘面情绪同样占了很大的比例，上周下半周开始化工品的普涨以及本周周尾有色贵金属的 回调，都对盘面造成了比较大的影响。 我们认为，短期的上涨是成本+基本面+情绪共同作用下的结果，从理性的角度的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the surge in optical communication stocks amid a tight AI computing power supply forecast extending through 2026, driven by increased capital expenditures from major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft [1][2] - Optical communication concept stocks have seen significant gains, with Changfei Fiber (601869) up 7.27% to HKD 84.1, Huiju Technology (01729) up 6.07% to HKD 15.72, Hong Teng Precision (06088) up 4.68% to HKD 4.92, and Cambridge Technology (603083) up 1.52% to HKD 83.25 [1] - The demand for AI computing power is driving upgrades in the optical communication industry, with strong capital expenditure from overseas cloud providers and TSMC, indicating robust demand for AI infrastructure [2] Group 2 - Despite short-term supply shortages of high-speed optical chips and materials, upstream manufacturers are actively expanding production, and the penetration of silicon photonics solutions is expected to alleviate supply chain bottlenecks [2] - NPO technology, with its advantages of low power consumption, high bandwidth, and maintainability, is becoming a key transitional solution for scaling up, with leading companies already positioning themselves to drive the industry towards more efficient optical interconnection architectures [2] - There is optimism regarding the growth potential of domestic optical communication leading companies [2]

Group 1: Cambridge Technology - The report initiates coverage on Cambridge Technology, predicting a target price of 161 CNY and a buy rating, with expected net profits of 261 million, 1.772 billion, and 3.307 billion CNY for 2025-2027, respectively [3] - The company is a global leader in optical connectivity, broadband, and wireless solutions, actively investing in high-end optical modules to capitalize on the rapid development of AI [3][4] - The optical module market is expected to grow significantly, reaching approximately 13 billion USD by 2025 and 16 billion USD by 2026, driven by increased AI investments from North American cloud vendors [4] Group 2: Tianfu Communication - Tianfu Communication has lowered its profit forecast and target price while maintaining a buy rating, with a revised net profit estimate of 2.08 billion CNY for 2025 [5][40] - The company anticipates stable demand growth despite slightly lower-than-expected performance, benefiting from the acceleration of AI industry development and global data center construction [41] Group 3: Kingsoft Cloud - Kingsoft Cloud is in a new growth phase driven by AI, with projected revenues of 9.51 billion, 11.685 billion, and 14.338 billion CNY for 2025-2027, respectively, despite expected net losses [9][33] - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 31.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with AI revenue growing approximately 120% [10][34] - Kingsoft Cloud is heavily investing in AI infrastructure, with 80% of its recent fundraising allocated to support AI business expansion [11][35] Group 4: Kevin Education - Kevin Education is positioned to improve profitability through its AI education initiatives, with projected revenues of 420 million, 572 million, and 760 million CNY for 2025-2027 [12][15] - The company has partnered with leading AI firms to enhance its educational technology capabilities, tapping into a significant market potential in AI education [14]

Group 1 - Baidu Intelligent Cloud has set an ambitious AI-related revenue growth target of 200% by 2026, up from the previous target of 100%, aiming to become the leader in the AI cloud market [1] - According to IDC, the global AI cloud market is expected to exceed $400 billion by 2030, indicating significant growth potential in the sector [2] - In 2025, major Chinese cloud providers are projected to secure a total of 341 contracts related to large models, with a total bid amount of approximately 2.7 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - Baidu Intelligent Cloud has secured 109 projects with a total bid amount of about 900 million yuan, maintaining its position as the leader in both project count and bid amount for two consecutive years [2] - Citic Securities reports that the demand for AI computing power is expanding, leading to a positive outlook for the optical module industry and opportunities across the supply chain [2] - Citic Securities also notes that Amazon's recent 15% price increase for its AI computing service EC2 marks a break from the long-standing trend of decreasing cloud service prices, reflecting tight supply conditions [2] Group 3 - Citic Securities suggests monitoring cloud service providers for potential price increases and continues to recommend the AI computing sector and AI applications [3] - The AI computing sector is experiencing a period of adjustment, which Citic Securities views as an opportunity for investors [4] - Key Hong Kong stocks related to the AI computing sector include Changfei Optical Fiber, Cambridge Technology, Hongteng Precision, and Huiju Technology [5]

Macro Research - The report highlights a "double hit" moment for US dollar assets due to Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [3][4][22] - The US dollar's credit breakdown is re-emerging, with significant impacts on US stocks, bonds, and currencies, resulting in a strong performance of safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies face pressure [3][4][22] Strategy Research - In Q4 2025, active funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on increasing allocations to cyclical and financial value stocks, while reducing exposure to technology and healthcare sectors [7][26] - The report indicates a clear rotation in fund styles, with a notable shift towards large-cap cyclical and financial stocks, while growth and consumer sectors saw reductions in allocations [26][27] Fixed Income Research - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlements may tighten interbank liquidity, depending on whether the central bank will actively increase the supply of base currency [11][14] Industry Research: Photovoltaic Equipment - The report anticipates a new cycle for the photovoltaic equipment industry driven by SpaceX and Tesla's plans to deploy a combined 200GW of solar capacity, with key equipment manufacturers expected to benefit [15][16] - The demand for solar expansion is expected to rise due to the increasing need for low-orbit satellites and the commercialization of space computing, which will drive the demand for core equipment [15][16] Fund Allocation Insights - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to cyclical and financial sectors, particularly in upstream industries like metals and chemicals, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions [27][28] - The technology sector shows a marked divergence, with communication equipment receiving substantial increases due to AI infrastructure investments, while many tech segments faced reductions [27][28]

南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告 ——2月巴西降水量有望季节性回升 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月26日 本周重要气象提示——巴西 当前巴西中南部处于甘蔗分蘖期，此阶段需要持续的高温环境， 积温越高（有效积温需 5000~6500℃），茎秆伸长速度越快，若此时温度低于 20℃，伸长会大幅放缓；需水增加，持水量 65%~70%，适度湿润利于分蘖苗萌发，干旱会导致分蘖少、有效苗数不足。 巴西中南部当前处于26/27榨季甘蔗生长阶段，受拉尼娜影响，整体降水偏低，近期降水偏少，气温回 升，土壤湿度小幅改善，但仍处于历史低位水平。从预报看，预计1月末至2月上旬，巴西中南部降水量季节 性回升，预计土壤湿度将得到改善。 巴西中南部近期降水偏少，处于低位水平，对于新榨季的甘蔗生长造成一定影响，当前的土壤湿度小幅 改善，但仍处于历史低位水平，不利于甘蔗的拔节。预计随着1月末至2月上旬降雨量增加，土壤湿度改善将 有助于甘蔗伸长。 巴西产区地图预报：降水&土壤湿度 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 source：浩淞风 ...

盈利预测 投资要点 Q4 受汇兑损失短期承压，全年业绩整体预增2025 年度，公司高速光模块业务受益于人工智能和全球数 据中心建设提速带来的旺盛市场需求，通过嘉善新生产基地投产、马来西亚生产基地产能爬坡及国内外 基地规划扩产的持续性产能布局，订单规模与发货数量同比均大幅增长。随着高速率、高毛利光模块占 比显著提升，整体销售毛利率也进一步改善。其中Q4 香港上市融资款项主要以港元外汇形式留存，受 港元汇率跟随美元汇率同步下跌影响，汇兑净损益由盈转亏，预计2025 年度汇兑损失约为8,161 万元， 对Q4 业绩增长产生一定负面影响，但未改变业绩整体预增的趋势。 聚焦硅光技术，上游物料供应储备充足 剑桥科技发布2025 年度业绩预增公告：预计 2025 年实现归母净利润2.52 亿元至2.78 亿元，同比增长 51.19%至66.79%，实现扣非归母净利润2.49 亿元至2.75 亿元，同比增长64.62%至81.81%。 公司光模块产品布局完善，包括Retimed1.6T2×DR4/DR8、1.6T2×FR4、OSFPDR8 及Gearbox800GDR4 等型号，同时涵盖LPO/LRO 相关机种，且以硅光技术 ...

Group 1 - Cambridge Technology is a global leader in optical connectivity, broadband, and wireless solutions [1] - The rapid development of AI is expected to lead to an outperformance in the optical module business [1] - The company is actively expanding overseas production capacity and investing in supply chain manufacturers through H-share issuance [1] Group 2 - With a strong background in products, production capacity, North American teams, and supply chain partnerships, the optical module business is poised for further breakthroughs in overseas markets [1] - The average industry valuation suggests a 2026 PE of 32.13x, corresponding to a target price of 161 yuan, with a rating of "Buy" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impressive performance of fund manager Ren Jie, who achieved a 233% annual return in 2025, and his latest portfolio reveals new investments and adjustments in holdings [1][2] - Ren Jie's top ten holdings include new positions in Dongshan Precision, Jingwang Electronics, Industrial Fulian, and Cambridge Technology, while he increased stakes in Shengyi Technology, Huadian Shares, Xinyi Technology, Shenzhen South Circuit, and Tianfu Communication, and reduced his position in Zhongji Xuchuang [1][2] - The report indicates that Ren Jie remains optimistic about AI, focusing on global cloud computing investments, and notes the performance of various indices during the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] Group 2 - The AI industry is experiencing a significant leap due to the launch of new multimodal models by leading companies, showcasing unique advantages in model iteration efficiency and application capabilities [3] - The application ecosystem is transitioning from scale expansion to structural upgrades, with a focus on user segmentation, differentiated capabilities, and deeper service offerings in high-barrier verticals like healthcare and enterprise-level applications [4] - The global AI model industry is in a phase of continuous capability enhancement and expanding application scenarios, indicating strong sustainability and certainty in development [5]

Group 1 - The CPO concept stocks in the A-share market experienced a collective decline, with notable drops in companies such as Xinyisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang falling over 6% [1] - Other companies like Tianfu Communication and Hengtong Optics also saw significant declines, with drops exceeding 5% and 4% respectively [1] - The overall trend indicates a bearish sentiment in the CPO sector, impacting multiple stocks negatively [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance data shows Xinyisheng down by 6.65% with a total market value of 380.1 billion, and a year-to-date decline of 11.24% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang decreased by 6.12%, with a market capitalization of 647.8 billion and a year-to-date drop of 4.43% [2] - Tianfu Communication fell by 5.58%, holding a market value of 146.8 billion and a year-to-date decline of 6.99% [2]