Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][14]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 5.04% year-on-year increase in Q3 2024, despite a slight slowdown compared to previous quarters. The growth is attributed to the company's diversified business strategy, particularly in smart electrical appliances and new energy sectors [1][3]. - The company's gross margin decreased to 43.47% in Q3 2024, down by 1.18 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in raw material prices. The net profit margin also slightly declined to 24.30% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on innovation and development in three main business areas: electrical connections, smart electrical lighting, and new energy, which are expected to drive future growth despite challenges in the real estate sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.58%, and a net profit of 3.263 billion yuan, up 16.00% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.217 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.025 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.36% [1][2]. - The company’s sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for Q3 2024 were 9.19%, 4.31%, 3.60%, and -0.63%, respectively, indicating an increase in sales expenses due to higher marketing investments [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 4.333 billion, 4.901 billion, and 5.516 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.35, 3.79, and 4.27 yuan, and PE ratios of 21.77, 19.25, and 17.10 times [3][4]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong brand image in the electrical connection sector, focusing on product innovation to meet diverse consumer needs. The new energy business has also expanded its product lines and channels, contributing to sustained growth [1][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2024 despite a weak demand environment, which is commendable. Although gross margin was under pressure and expense ratios increased, other income sources helped maintain stable profitability. The company's comprehensive competitive strength and clear strategy suggest it can sustain steady operations in the long term. The projected revenue growth for 2024-2026 is expected to be +13%/+8%/+12% year-on-year, with corresponding valuations of 22X/20X/18X [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.603 billion, a year-on-year increase of +8.58%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.263 billion, up +16.00% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.839 billion, an increase of +8.26% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.217 billion, a year-on-year increase of +5.04%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.025 billion, up +3.36% year-on-year [6][7]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue growth was driven by its core businesses, with the new energy segment continuing to grow rapidly. The electrical connection segment is expected to see slight positive growth, while the smart electrical lighting segment is projected to grow in the single digits. The overall performance indicates that, apart from the new energy business, other segments are experiencing a slowdown [6][7]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising copper prices. The expense ratio increased by 2.6 percentage points, with sales expenses rising significantly due to accelerated channel development and flagship store construction. However, other income sources, including investment income and reduced credit impairment losses, contributed positively to net profit margins [6][7]. Future Outlook - Despite the revenue slowdown, the company is expected to maintain stable growth due to its strong operational capabilities and effective product innovation. The demand for core products remains steady, and the company is actively expanding into new product categories, which is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth in the future [6][7].

证券研究报告 | 2024年11月06日 公牛集团（603195.SH） 优于大市 2024 年三季报点评： 三季度收入增长稳健，经营彰显韧性 三季度收入利润稳健增长，经营彰显韧性。公司发布 2024 年三季报， 2024Q1-Q3 实现收入 126.0 亿/+8.6%，归母净利润 32.6 亿/+16.0%。扣非归 母净利润 28.4 亿/+8.3%；2024Q3 实现收入 42.2 亿/+5.0%，归母净利润 10.2 亿/+3.4%，扣非归母净利润 9.4 亿/-2.2%。Q3 由于受到外部消费环境与地产 压力影响，公司收入增速环比有所降速，盈利能力小幅下滑主要系与大宗原 材料价格波动有关。 短期地产压力传导至经营端，基石业务夯实，新业务快速成长。电连接业务 主要受消费大趋势与用电场景需求影响，预计增速稳健，转换器针对多样化 场景需求、海外市场差异化需求进行创新，产品结构持续升级，电动工具等 新扩充的产品线有望成为新增长点。智能电工照明业务致力于打造以无主灯 为核心的智能前装用电产品生态，其中墙开、LED 照明与房地产关联度较大， 预计增速有所放缓，智能无主灯公牛与沐光双品牌运作良好；新能源业务由 于基 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 公牛集团（603195）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 主业仍具韧性，新兴保持高增 目标价：86.8 元 当前价：74.09 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年三季报，公司实现营收 126.0 亿元，同比+8.6%；实现归母净 利润 32.6 亿元，同比+16%。拆分单季度来看，公司 24Q3 单季营收 42.2 亿元， 同比+5.0%；归母净利润 10.3 亿元，同比+3.4%；扣非归母净利润 9.4 亿元， 同比-2.2%。 评论： ❖ 主业环比降速，渠道稳健发展。在宏观环境承压及地产下行背景下，公司收入 业绩增长凸显极强经营韧性。具体分业务来看，电连接业务产品端由安全向时 尚转型，品类扩充推出电瓶车充电器、电动工具等新品为电连接业务稳健增长 带来增量贡献，渠道端精细化运营。智能电工照明业务中，墙开业务受地产竣 工压力影响显著；LED 业务中个性化灯具受地产和经济周期影响较大；公司 渠道端大力推动 4.0 旗舰店升级。新能源业务围绕光储充放进一步丰富产品矩 阵，渠道端线上根据久谦数据，公牛充电桩市占率由 1 月第二（17%）提升至 9 月第一（32%）；B 端大力推动国家 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 04 年 月 日 公牛集团（603195.SH） 传统业务逆势保持平稳，新业务扩张可期 公司发布 2024 年三季报：24Q3 公司实现收入 42.17 亿元（同比+5.0%）， 归母净利润 10.25 亿元（同比+3.4%），扣非归母净利润 9.36 亿元（同比 -2.2%），受消费弱势影响、收入增速小幅回落；原材料成本上升，但得益 于供应链能力提升、产品结构升级等动作，利润基本保持稳定。 优势产品保持稳定，细分新品增长靓丽。我们判断 24Q3 各板块增速环比 回落，转换器延续创新提价，我们判断 24Q3 公司转换器业务销量保持稳 定、均价小个位数提升，高颜值、科技感产品占比提升，预计轨道插、小 电舱等爆品延续亮眼增速；墙开份额延续逆势提升，我们判断 24Q3 墙开 收入增长高个位数左右，其中销量增速更快、均价小幅下行（主要系性价 比产品放量更显著）；LED 照明业务受行业影响，预计短期承压，其中无主 灯门店预计店效提升顺利；新产品如电动工具、无叶风扇灯 24Q3 预计实 现突破式增长。 自主品牌出海顺利，环境弱势下积极思变。我们判断新能 ...

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%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨公牛集团（603195.SH） [Table_Title] 公牛集团 2024Q3 点评： 增长彰显韧性，新业务稳步推进 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | 报告要点 | | | | | [Table_Summary] 2024Q1-Q3 实现营收 / 归母净利润 / 扣非净利润 2024Q3 实现营收 / 归母净利润 / 扣非净利润 42.17/10.25/9.36 | 126.03/32.63/28.39 亿元，同增 9%/16%/8% ； 亿元，同比 +5%/+3%/-2% 。 | | | ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.03 ——公牛集团 2024 年 Q3 业绩点评 主业彰显经营韧性，新兴业务维持高增 公牛集团(603195) 家用电器业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------|----------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟 ( 分析师 ) | 曲世强 ( 研究助理 ) | 谢丛睿 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38031654 | 021-38031025 | 021-38038437 | | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com | qushiqiang028674@gtjas.com | xie ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 87.68 CNY, corresponding to a 2024 PE valuation of 26X [11][15]. Core Views - The company reported a steady revenue growth in Q3 2024, achieving a total revenue of 12.6 billion CNY for the first three quarters, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.26 billion CNY, up 16.0% year-over-year [11]. - The traditional business segments are growing steadily, while new business areas are experiencing rapid growth. The company is focusing on product innovation and upgrading in the electrical connection business to meet diverse consumer demands [11][12]. - The company is actively expanding its new energy business, particularly in the "light-storage-charge-discharge" ecosystem, enhancing its product offerings in both the European and domestic markets [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 4.22 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 5.0%, with a net profit of 1.02 billion CNY, up 3.4% year-over-year [11]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-over-year due to rising raw material prices, while the net profit margin fell by 0.4 percentage points [12]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 3.9 billion CNY year-over-year, primarily due to increased cash payments for goods and services [12]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 3.37 CNY, 3.64 CNY, and 3.89 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [12][22].

2024 年 11 月 01 日 公司点评 买入/维持 公牛集团(603195) 目标价: 昨收盘:74.02 公牛集团：2024Q3 收入业绩稳健增长，期待国际化新增量 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...