公牛在精进主业的同时，也继续拓展新业务/新市场；? 维持买入评级，下调目标价18%至50.00 元，对 应20 倍2026 年P/E。 3Q25 依然承压； 3Q25 依然承压：根据公牛9M25 公告，1）营收/归母净利润分别同比下滑3.2%/8.7%至122.0/ 29.8 亿 元，其中3Q2 营收/归母净利润分别同比下滑4.4%/10.3%至40.3/ 9.2 亿元。2）9M25 毛利率同比下降 1.0ppt 至42.1%，销售费用率同比下降1.4 ppts 至7.0%，管理费用率同比增加0.9ppt 至4.7%，研发费用率 同比降低0.5ppt 至3.6%，财务收入占比降低0.1ppt 至-0.6%，归母净利率同比降低1.5ppts 至24.4%。3） 存货周转天数同比增加1 天至52 天，应收/应付账款周转天数分别同比增加1 /7 天至7/ 85 天，净营业周 期同比改善5 天至-26 天。 精进主业的同时，也继续拓展新业务/新市场：1）在行业下行的压力下，公牛在国内加大断路器、电动 工具等新品的研发和开拓，墙开则聚焦智能化策略持续迭代，而个人充电桩业务则从之前的主推线下转 变为全渠道发展。公牛也组建 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 47 CNY, reflecting a 20x PE for 2026 [3][6]. Core Views - The company's main business is under short-term pressure, but new business initiatives are accelerating, opening up long-term growth potential. The company is expected to leverage its strong channel and brand barriers to replicate success in new markets and overseas [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 15,695 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%. The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 16,837 million CNY and 17,614 million CNY, respectively, indicating a stagnation in growth for 2025 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted to be 40.24 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 6% compared to the previous year, followed by a slight recovery in 2026 and 2027 [3][5]. - The gross margin is expected to decline from 43.2% in 2023 to 41.2% by 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 24% [5][11]. Business Development Summary - The company is focusing on new business areas, including international expansion and renewable energy, which are showing promising growth. The international strategy aims for comprehensive product offerings in developed markets, while the renewable energy segment is expected to see significant growth in 2026 [9][10]. - The data center business is also experiencing rapid growth, with partnerships established with major clients like ByteDance and Tencent, indicating a strong market position [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 59.00 [7][8]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 2.60% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a total revenue of RMB 81.68 billion and a net profit of RMB 20.60 billion, down 8.00% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of RMB 42.46 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.37% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.24% [1][2]. - The traditional business is facing growth challenges due to the bottoming out of new home sales, while the company is actively cultivating new energy business and exploring incremental business opportunities [1][2]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 42.33%, a decrease of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in raw material prices and changes in product mix [3]. - The company is focusing on high-end branding and exploring international markets, with overseas revenue reaching RMB 1.4 billion in the first half of the year [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from electrical connection business was RMB 36.62 billion, down 5.37% year-on-year, while the smart electrical lighting business generated RMB 40.94 billion, down 2.78% year-on-year. The new energy business, however, saw a revenue increase of 33.52% year-on-year, reaching RMB 3.86 billion [2]. - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 25.22%, a decrease of 1.48 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Investment Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards by 5.43%, 8.78%, and 11.90% respectively, projecting net profits of RMB 42.71 billion, RMB 44.04 billion, and RMB 47.15 billion for those years. The corresponding EPS is expected to be RMB 2.36, RMB 2.43, and RMB 2.61 [5]. - The company is assigned a target price of RMB 59.00 based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025, indicating a clear long-term growth path despite short-term performance pressures [5].

Core Viewpoint - In a challenging business cycle, many companies are struggling with profit tightening and slowing growth, leading to a questioning of the quality of growth. However, some companies are managing to grow against the trend by rediscovering the importance of making the right strategic decisions [2][3]. Group 1: Opportunities in Value Blind Spots - Companies like Bosideng and Gongniu have shown remarkable growth despite market saturation, with Bosideng reporting a revenue increase of 11.6% to 25.9 billion and a net profit increase of 14.3% to 3.51 billion [4][5]. - Bosideng, once perceived as nearing market saturation, found new growth opportunities by shifting its focus back to its core competency in down jackets, which allowed it to redefine its market position [6][7]. - The concept of "value blind spots" is highlighted, where companies often overlook potential opportunities due to internal biases or traditional industry perspectives [9][11]. Group 2: The Need for a Central Axis in Value Consumption Era - The current competitive landscape is characterized by internal competition and price wars, leading to a misinterpretation of what constitutes true customer value [13]. - Customer value is defined as the perceived benefits that customers expect from a brand, which is dynamic and requires continuous strategic adaptation [13][30]. - The "Seven Laws" developed by Junzhi Consulting serve as a foundational framework for companies to navigate complex market conditions and create sustainable customer value [15][30]. Group 3: Strategic Implementation and Dynamic Adaptation - Junzhi Consulting emphasizes the importance of a dynamic strategy that adapts to changing market conditions, as demonstrated by Gongniu's successful launch of strategic products like the track socket [20][21]. - The "Dynamic Law" focuses on establishing a flexible system that can respond to rapid changes in the market, ensuring that companies can maintain a competitive edge [24][30]. - The "Force Law" highlights the importance of concentrating resources on the most promising opportunities, as seen in the case of Bai Xiang, which successfully pivoted to online sales to overcome market challenges [25][28]. Group 4: Long-term Value Creation and Collaboration - Successful companies are characterized by their commitment to long-term value, deep market understanding, and a collaborative approach with external resources [33][34]. - Junzhi Consulting positions itself as a partner in the strategic process, working alongside companies to co-create value rather than merely providing solutions [33][34]. - The ongoing evolution of Junzhi's organizational structure and talent pool aims to enhance its ability to support companies in achieving sustainable high-quality growth [34][35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 90.63 CNY for the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company reported stable revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 39.2 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue leveraging its traditional strengths while rapidly growing its emerging businesses, particularly in the fields of smart electrical appliances and new energy [1][2]. - The net profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points year-over-year in Q1, attributed to better cost control and an increase in other income [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 168.3 billion CNY, up 7.2% year-over-year, and a net profit of 42.7 billion CNY, up 10.4% year-over-year [1][3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.49 CNY, 3.70 CNY, and 3.90 CNY respectively [2][3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 179.7 billion CNY in 2025 to 206.9 billion CNY in 2027, with net profit increasing from 45.1 billion CNY to 50.4 billion CNY in the same period [3][9]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on product innovation in its electrical connection business, including the iteration of rail sockets and embedded sockets, and is accelerating its product exports [1]. - In the smart electrical lighting sector, the company aims to enhance its high-end product offerings through full-house Wi-Fi sockets and LED lighting focused on health [1]. - The new energy business is set to expedite the launch of its Tianji series products and strengthen its market position in personal charging piles [1].