行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 26 日 关注关税政策变化、AI 眼镜新品催 化；家居和内需消费有望边际改善 看好 ——造纸轻工周报 2026/02/09-2026/02/23 本期投资提示： ⚫ 重点提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关研究 - 汇率大幅波动的风险；关税预期波动的风险 ⚫ 1）出口：关税政策变化，海外下游存补库预期，推荐 Alpha ...

申万宏源研究研报指出，公牛集团是民用电工领域标杆企业，传统核心品类护城河深厚，渠道改革红利 释放；产品、渠道及供应链竞争力持续夯实，传统主业有望稳健增长；出海加速开辟新增长点，智能照 明、新能源新业务快速放量。考虑地产及消费景气不及预期，预计电连接、墙开等传统业务销量承压， 因此下调公司2025-2026年归母净利润至39.55、42.24 亿元（前值为49.91/58.18 亿元），新增2027年归 母净利润46.20亿元，2025-2027 年归母净利润同比增速分别为-7.4%、+6.8%、+9.4%，当前市值对应的 PE 分别为20、19、17倍，考虑公司股价经历下调，当前市场地产链及消费情绪升温，公司作为具备长 坡厚雪竞争力深厚的白马标的，参考可比公司安克创新、绿联科技2026年PE均值为23倍，公司估值具 备性价比，且分红率较高，对于公牛集团仍维持"买入"评级。 ...

市公司 游戏 公司品 报告原因: 有新的信息需要补充 2026 年 02 月 24 日 市场数据· 收盘价 (元) 联系人 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com | 收盘价（元） 43.49 | | --- | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 78.14/40.80 | | 市净率 5.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 5.52 | | 78,311 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | | ┣证指数/深证成指 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 8.66 | | 资产负债率% | 26.34 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 1,808/1,801 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | - / - | -年内股价与大盛对比走势： 相关研究 证券分析师 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuvt@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场数据： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 收盘价（元） 43.49 | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 78.14/40.80 | | --- | --- | | 市净率 | 5.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.52 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 78,311 | | 上证指数/深证成指 4,117.41/14,291.57 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.66 | | 资产负债率% | 26.34 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,808/1,801 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 02-24 03-24 04-24 05-24 06-24 07-24 08-24 09-24 10-24 11-24 12-24 01-24 02-24 公牛集团 沪深 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the home furnishing and paper industries, with specific recommendations for companies with high dividend safety margins and growth potential [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, and companies like Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein are highlighted for their strong dividend safety margins [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in boxboard prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are recognized for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new business areas such as overseas expansion and smart lighting present growth opportunities [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support the demand side, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of industry consolidation since 2025, with mid-tier companies exiting the market and capital entering leading firms, enhancing industry concentration [6][16]. - Companies to watch include Gujia Home, Sophia, Oppein, Mousse, and Xilinmen, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [5][6]. Paper Industry - The report notes that boxboard prices are stable in the short term, with an anticipated improvement in the supply-demand structure that could enhance profitability in the mid-term. Companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for their strong positions [3][5]. - The report suggests monitoring the potential impact of anti-involution policies and demand changes, which could contribute to cyclical elasticity in the paper sector [7][8]. - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies with integrated supply chains and significant cost advantages, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][8]. Bull Group - The Bull Group is expected to see steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment. The company is also expanding into new areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy, which are anticipated to drive growth [10][11]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages in product, channel, and supply chain management, which are expected to support stable growth in 2026 [10][11]. Consumer Goods - The report indicates a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care growth stocks. Companies like Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou are noted for their potential in the market [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing and paper industries, indicating potential for valuation recovery and growth opportunities [3][5]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is at a valuation bottom, with real estate policies expected to catalyze upward valuation movements. Industry consolidation is accelerating, with a focus on companies with high dividend safety margins such as Gujia Home, Sophia, and Oppein [3][5]. - In the paper industry, short-term stability in corrugated box prices is noted, with an optimistic mid-term supply-demand balance expected to enhance industry profitability. Companies like Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted for exceeding performance expectations [3][5]. - Bull Group is positioned for steady recovery in its traditional business due to improving real estate and consumer sentiment, while new ventures in overseas markets, smart lighting, and renewable energy are opening growth avenues [3][5]. - Consumer sentiment is rebounding, with a focus on personal care growth stocks such as Baiya, Dengkang Dental, and Zhongshun Jierou [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The sector is experiencing a valuation bottom, with real estate policies likely to improve market sentiment and demand. The increase in second-hand housing transactions is expected to support home furnishing demand, leading to a long-term expansion of the industry [5][6]. - The ongoing consolidation in the industry is pushing mid-tier companies out, while capital from industrial players is entering leading home furnishing firms, enhancing market concentration [5][6]. Paper Industry - Short-term price stability in corrugated boxes is observed, with a potential mid-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics expected to boost profitability. The report emphasizes the importance of integrated supply chains and cost advantages in companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [7][9]. - The report suggests that the paper industry is nearing a bottom, with cost structures supporting price stability and potential for upward movement in demand [7][9]. Bull Group - The company is expected to benefit from improving real estate conditions and consumer sentiment, with traditional business lines poised for recovery. New business areas such as smart lighting and renewable energy are anticipated to contribute to growth [11][12]. Consumer Goods - The report highlights a rebound in consumer sentiment, with a focus on personal care companies that are expected to show growth potential. Companies like Baiya and Dengkang Dental are noted for their promising performance in 2026 [14][15]. Packaging Industry - The report discusses the performance of overseas packaging companies, with Ball Corporation and Amcor showing strong results. Ball's revenue for FY25 reached $13.2 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, while Amcor's revenue for FY26H1 was $11.2 billion, a 70% increase [15][16].

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 插线板行业龙头公牛集团，因一句常年沿用的广告语与同行对簿公堂，直指对方商业诋毁并索赔420万 元，这场企业纠纷火速掀动行业讨论。近日，这场争执迎来了新的进展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bull Group has been recognized for its brand strength and innovative products, winning three prestigious awards at the "2025 Light Award" ceremony, marking its transition from a strong player to a standard-setting leader in the lighting industry [1] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - Bull Group won the "2025 Home Lighting Brand Award TOP10," "2025 Health Lighting Brand Award TOP10," and "2025 Innovative Product Award" at the "2026 China Lighting Industry Brand Ceremony" [1] - The "Light Award" is considered an annual benchmark in the Chinese lighting and electrical industry, aimed at recognizing entities that drive industry progress and consumer trends [1] Group 2: Company Positioning - The awards signify that Bull Group has advanced from being an industry "strong player" to becoming a "leader" that defines standards in the lighting sector [1] - The company emphasizes its commitment to enhancing quality of life through professional strength and aims to contribute to the high-quality development of the Chinese lighting industry [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The home goods sector increased by 2.32% on January 29, with Marco Polo leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Marco Polo (001386) closed at 25.70, up 10.02%, with a trading volume of 290,000 shares and a transaction value of 717 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Bincao Lawn (6605099) at 43.05, up 9.99%, with a transaction value of 211 million yuan [1] - Home Link Technology (301193) at 23.52, up 7.40%, with a transaction value of 215 million yuan [1] - Oppein Home (603833) at 62.34, up 6.20%, with a transaction value of 413 million yuan [1] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The home goods sector saw a net inflow of 263 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 122 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant capital flow included: - Marco Polo with a net inflow of 239 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Bull Group (603195) with a net inflow of 41.50 million yuan [3] - Oppein Home (603833) with a net inflow of 23.39 million yuan [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Sector - **Key Insights**: The sector shows signs of consumption recovery despite a near-term property market downturn. Valuation remains attractive, approximately 1 standard deviation below 10-year averages, indicating that a consumption recovery is not yet priced in [2][21]. Consumer Staples - **Baijiu**: Anticipated demand support for mid-end baijiu due to easing alcohol bans and private consumption growth. Companies are expected to accelerate channel transformations for sustainable EPS growth [3][8]. - **Beer**: Premiumization continues through product diversification and in-home channel expansion, despite on-trade softness. CR Beer expects low-single-digit volume growth in 2025, with Heineken volumes projected to grow by 20% YoY [3][8]. - **Dairy**: Liquid milk sales are expected to recover modestly in 2026, driven by marketing and innovation, despite a weak 2025. Fresh milk shows resilience with double-digit growth [3][8]. - **Freshly-Made Beverages (FMB)**: Guming is expected to maintain steady SSSG in 2026 through category expansion and dine-in growth, despite the phase-out of delivery subsidies [3][8][19]. - **Condiments**: Sequentially improving demand is expected, with Haitian focusing on multi-product categories and Jonjee anticipating a cleaner 2026 after a weak 4Q25 [3][8]. Consumer Discretionary - **Home Appliances**: Companies like Midea and Haier expect higher overseas growth compared to domestic markets in 2026. Strategies include price hikes and operational efficiencies [4][10]. - **Jewelry**: Brands with unique designs may consolidate post-VAT reform. Laopu is expected to achieve strong sales growth due to increased focus on value-added services [4][10]. - **Restaurants**: Intense competition leads to divergent strategies, with some companies lowering prices while others upgrade offerings. DPC Dash is on track for expansion despite market uncertainties [4][10]. Stock Implications - **Most Preferred Stocks**: CR Beer, Guming, MIXUE, China Foods, YUM China, among others, are highlighted as preferred investments due to their growth potential [5]. - **Least Preferred Stocks**: Companies like Swellfun, Nongfu, and Gree are noted as less favorable due to various challenges [5]. Key Risks - Risks include demand recovery uncertainties, cost inflation or deflation, and changes in the competitive landscape. These factors could significantly impact the consumer sector's performance [21]. Additional Insights - **Pet Food**: The industry is shifting towards online sales, with over 85% of sales occurring digitally. Competition is intensifying, pushing brands towards innovation and product differentiation [13]. - **Snack Sector**: Rapid category diversification and channel restructuring are creating growth opportunities, particularly through snack discounters [9][12]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China consumer sector.