Core Viewpoint - The company benefits from improved profitability in cross-border e-commerce, with strong profit performance and potential for further expansion of overseas factory advantages [1] Investment Highlights - The company raises its earnings forecast and maintains a "Buy" rating, adjusting the 2025-2026 earnings expectations to EPS of 0.49/0.57 yuan (previously 0.41/0.49 yuan), and introducing a 2027 earnings forecast of 0.77 yuan. The target price is raised to 9.84 yuan based on a 20x PE for 2025, reflecting the valuation premium from the company's diversified overseas factory layout [2] - The company reports a revenue of 2.043 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.31%. North American revenue reached 1.02 billion yuan, up 10.04%, with positive results in new customer development after ceasing cooperation with a major client. European revenue was 513 million yuan, growing 17.36% [2][3] - The company's proprietary brand, Mengbaihe, saw offline and online sales increase by 3.45% and 6.43% respectively, with improved losses in Shanghai Mengbaihe. Overseas online revenue surged by 64.46%, and excluding specific online businesses, the organic overseas e-commerce revenue grew over 70% [3] Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - The company achieved a net profit of 58.72 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 196.22%, with a non-recurring net profit of 58.22 million yuan, up 206.80%. The gross margin was 39.37%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points, while the management expense ratio decreased to 5.96% from 7.59% in 2022. Interest expenses also fell by 23.93% [3] Overseas Capacity Advantage - The company's global capacity layout has matured, enabling localized supply and a robust channel structure overseas. The operational status of factories in the U.S. is strong, with the West Coast factory under construction and sufficient production capacity in the U.S. The trade tensions have provided opportunities for the company to enhance its market share in the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lawsuit between Mengbaihe and Huazhu highlights the competitive dynamics between the mattress and hotel industries, with both sides seeking to capitalize on each other's markets [1][3][20]. Group 1: Legal Dispute - Mengbaihe Home Technology Co., Ltd. has filed a lawsuit against Huazhu Hotel Management Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries for trademark infringement [2]. - The case is set to be heard in the Shanghai Pudong New Area People's Court on February 13, 2025 [2]. - The ongoing competition between the two companies has been characterized as a "water under the bridge" rivalry, with both aiming to capture market share from each other [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The hotel industry is facing declining performance, with the average occupancy rate in 2024 at 58.8%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, and average room prices decreasing by 5.8% [4]. - Increased competition and a saturated market have forced hotels to lower prices and seek cost-cutting measures, leading them to consider producing their own bedding products [4][20]. Group 3: Market Strategies - Huazhu's decision to enter the mattress market is driven by the need to enhance profitability amid declining hotel revenues [3][4]. - Other hotel brands, like Atour, have successfully launched their own bedding lines, significantly boosting their revenue [8][10]. - Mengbaihe's strategy involves collaborating with hotels to promote its products, effectively turning hotel rooms into immersive showrooms for its bedding items [16][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Mengbaihe aims to open 2,000 "zero-pressure" hotels, although its current progress is limited, with only a few locations operational [17][19]. - The competition between mattress manufacturers and hotels is expected to intensify, as both sectors explore new revenue streams and customer engagement strategies [13][20].

广发证券股份有限公司关于 梦百合家居科技股份有限公司 | 保荐人名称 | 广发证券股份有限公司 | 上市公司简称 | 梦百合 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保荐代表人姓名 | 范丽琴 | 上市公司代码 | 603313 | | 保荐代表人姓名 | 毕兴明 | 报告年度 | 年度 2024 | 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意梦百合家居科技股份有限公司向特 定对象发行股票注册的批复》（证监许可[2023]1431 号），并经上海证券交易所 同意，梦百合家居科技股份有限公司（以下简称"梦百合"或"公司"）向特定 对象发行人民币普通股（A 股）股票 85,287,846 股，发行价为每股人民币 9.38 元，共计募集资金 799,999,995.48 元，坐扣承销和保荐费用 9,399,999.96 元（其 中：不含税金额为 8,867,924.49 元，税款为 532,075.47 元）后的募集资金为 790,599,995.52 元，已由广发证券股份有限公司（以下简称"广发证券"或"保 荐人"）于 2023 年 11 月 1 日汇入梦百合募集资金监管账户。另减除律师费、审 计及 ...

广发证券股份有限公司 关于梦百合家居科技股份有限公司 2021 年度向特定对象发行股票 之持续督导保荐总结报告书 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意梦百合家居科技股份有限公司向特 定对象发行股票注册的批复》（证监许可[2023]1431 号），并经上海证券交易所 同意，梦百合家居科技股份有限公司（以下简称"梦百合"或"公司"）向特定 对象发行人民币普通股（A 股）股票 85,287,846 股，发行价为每股人民币 9.38 元，共计募集资金 799,999,995.48 元，坐扣承销和保荐费用 9,399,999.96 元（其 中：不含税金额为 8,867,924.49 元，税款为 532,075.47 元）后的募集资金为 790,599,995.52 元，已由广发证券股份有限公司（以下简称"广发证券"或"保 荐人"）于 2023 年 11 月 1 日汇入梦百合募集资金监管账户。另减除律师费、审 计及验资费、信息披露费等其他发行费用 1,938,950.81 元（不含税）后，梦百合 本次募集资金净额为 789,193,120.18 元。 根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》《上海 证 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 7.8 CNY [5] Core Views - The company has shown a strong recovery in Q1 2025 with a revenue of 2.043 billion CNY, up 12.31% year-on-year, and a net profit of 59 million CNY, up 196.22% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1] - The company is enhancing its global market competitiveness and accelerating market expansion, with a steady revenue growth of 5.94% in 2024 despite a decline in profits due to increased e-commerce operational costs and credit impairment losses [1][9] - The overseas business has shown robust growth, particularly in Europe, where revenue reached 6.75 billion CNY, up 6.68% year-on-year, and the online business in overseas markets grew by 48.72% [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 39.37%, up 0.85 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 2.87%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - For 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 8.449 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.94%, but a net loss of 151 million CNY [9] Product Performance - Revenue from mattresses in 2024 was 4.42 billion CNY, up 10.95% year-on-year, while pillow revenue slightly decreased by 0.25% to 606 million CNY [2] - The company has maintained a leading position in the smart bed market, recognized as the top brand in China for smart bed sales [4] Market Expansion - The North American market has stabilized, with a reduced revenue decline of 12.20 percentage points compared to the previous year, and the company is focusing on optimizing its business structure [3] - The company has multiple production bases globally, including in Serbia, the USA, Thailand, and Spain, which enhances its resilience against trade tensions [3] Domestic Market Strategy - Domestic revenue reached 1.48 billion CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of 42.47%, and both online and offline channels have shown growth [4] - The company is enhancing brand building through a dual-channel strategy, focusing on both online and offline sales [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, driven by domestic consumption stimulus and the gradual recovery of retail channels [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic consumption stimulus is beginning to show effects, with a notable recovery in retail channels, while export conditions are experiencing marginal declines [1][3]. - The performance of leading companies in the home furnishing sector is improving, particularly in the context of national subsidies and strategic adjustments [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Furnishing - Domestic sales show signs of recovery with a year-on-year revenue change of -12.44% in Q4 2024 and +1.75% in Q1 2025, while net profit for the same periods changed from -54.11% to +7.07% [13]. - Export performance for the furniture sector saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of +5.8% for 2024 but a decline of -8.0% in Q1 2025, indicating a downward trend in export conditions [13]. - The report anticipates that the domestic market will continue to recover in the short term due to national subsidy policies, while the export market may face ongoing pressures [13]. 1.1 Domestic - Custom Home Furnishing - Retail channels are showing marginal improvements, while bulk channels remain under pressure, with leading companies like Oppein and Sophia experiencing reduced revenue declines in Q1 2025 compared to previous quarters [20]. - The profitability of leading companies is improving, with a focus on cost control and product development, while second and third-tier brands may struggle to maintain performance [26]. - Prepayment and cash flow indicators show improvements for some leading companies, suggesting a gradual recovery in demand [38]. 1.2 Domestic - Soft Home Furnishing - The soft home furnishing sector is under pressure due to real estate downturns and changing consumer spending patterns, but companies like Kuka and Mengbaihe are showing signs of recovery [39]. - Profit margins are improving in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, with notable changes in gross and net profit margins across leading companies [44]. - Prepayment figures for soft home furnishing companies are showing positive growth, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [46]. 1.3 Export Home Furnishing - The overall export climate is declining, with a significant drop in cumulative export value in Q1 2025, reflecting challenges in the international market [51][53]. - Despite the overall decline, leading companies are still managing to perform well, showcasing resilience and strategic advantages [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in North America has stabilized, while European operations continue to grow, with Q1 results exceeding expectations [1][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -151 million yuan [5][15]. - The company is expected to see a profit rebound, with projections for net profit in 2025 and 2026 at 307 million yuan and 464 million yuan respectively [15]. Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit of 58.72 million yuan, up 196.2% [5][7]. - Domestic and overseas sales for 2024 were 1.48 billion yuan and 6.75 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 6.7% [6]. - The company's self-owned brand revenue reached 1.13 billion yuan domestically, reflecting a 3.6% increase [6]. Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 36.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 39.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The gross margin for the company's self-owned brand in 2024 was 46.0%, down 0.7 percentage points [10]. Cost Structure - The company's expense ratio for 2024 was 35.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13]. - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased to 34.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a rebound in profits due to the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and domestic demand stimulation policies [14]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained, with 2027 revenue projected at 12.73 billion yuan [15]. - The company is expected to benefit from reduced reliance on major clients, with the top five clients accounting for 16.2% of revenue in 2024, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in North America has stabilized, while European operations continue to grow, with Q1 results exceeding expectations [1][5] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -151 million yuan [5][15] - The company is expected to see profit recovery, with projections for 2025-2027 indicating a gradual increase in revenue and net profit [15] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit of 58.72 million yuan, up 196.2% [5][15] - Domestic and overseas sales for 2024 were 1.48 billion yuan and 6.75 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 6.7% [6] - The company's self-owned brand achieved revenue of 1.13 billion yuan domestically, reflecting a 3.6% increase [6] Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 36.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 39.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The gross margin for the company's self-owned brand in 2024 was 46.0%, down 0.7 percentage points [10] Cost Structure - The company's expense ratio for 2024 was 35.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased to 34.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13] Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for profit elasticity due to the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and domestic demand stimulation [14] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained, with 2027 revenue projected at 12.73 billion yuan [15] - The company is expected to benefit from reduced reliance on major clients, with the top five clients accounting for 16.2% of revenue in 2024, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [14]

Group 1 - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight increase, closing at 11,851.20 points with a growth rate of 1.52% [1] - Several stocks in the renovation and building materials sector saw price increases, with Mengbaihe leading at 7.67 CNY per share, up 10.04% [1] - Gujia Home Furnishing and Filinger also showed significant gains, closing at 25.07 CNY per share (up 10.00%) and 7.14 CNY per share (up 5.93%) respectively [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities reported a recent easing of trade war sentiments, leading to a rally in the export sector [2] - The domestic political bureau meeting focused on implementing existing policies while preparing new monetary policy tools and promoting service consumption [2] - The real estate chain is nearing the end of its clearing phase, with a significant improvement in supply dynamics and stable demand expected through 2025 [2] - The report anticipates accelerated consumption in home appliances and furniture by Q4 2024 and Q3 2025, driven by trade-in subsidies [2] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued consumer leaders and expansion-oriented companies, while also considering infrastructure projects in central and western regions if external demand declines [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 5.9% to 8.449 billion yuan for 2024, but a significant decline in net profit of 242.0% to -151 million yuan, aligning with previous performance forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached 8.449 billion yuan, with a net profit decline to -151 million yuan, primarily due to a 390 million yuan credit impairment loss and increased marketing expenses for brand promotion [1] - The gross profit margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 36.9%, attributed to a shift in business structure with a higher proportion of lower-margin exports [3] - The operating expense ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 35.0%, driven by a rise in sales expenses due to enhanced marketing efforts for the company's own brand [3] Group 2: Market and Product Insights - The company achieved a 6.7% increase in overseas revenue to 6.75 billion yuan, with European revenue growing by 20.35% to 1.96 billion yuan, while North American revenue saw a slight decline of 1.14% to 4.33 billion yuan [2] - Domestic revenue increased by 3.55% to 1.482 billion yuan, with steady progress in online and offline channel development [2] - In terms of product performance, mattress revenue rose by 11.0% to 4.415 billion yuan, while sofa revenue increased by 1.2% to 1.155 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is expected to see improvements in revenue and profit by 2025, supported by a leading global production capacity and a focus on brand and channel development in the domestic market [1] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 271 million yuan, 375 million yuan, and 482 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47, 0.66, and 0.85 yuan [4] - The target price for the company is set at 8.93 yuan, based on a 19 times PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's strong global production capabilities and potential demand recovery [4]