2026 年 01 月 08 日 新究品 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 panqyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 能眼镜首次纳入国补;关注 京东工业、伟易达 造纸轻工周报 2025/12/29-2026/01/03 朗投资提示: 【顾家家居】【慕思股份】【欧派家居】【索菲亚】 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》发 電票股示: 1） 注智能眼镜、智能家居; 2) 造纸: 新发《2026年造纸行业投资策略: 林浆纸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mengbaihe, is adjusting its overseas expansion strategy in response to a slowing global economy and fluctuations in the home furnishing market, focusing on building an e-commerce warehouse in the U.S. instead of expanding production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Adjustments - Mengbaihe plans to invest approximately 1.7 billion yuan in a new e-commerce warehouse project in the U.S. East, utilizing funds from previous projects that were not fully spent [1]. - The company will supplement the funding gap for the new warehouse project with its own or self-raised funds, as the total funding from previous projects is about 1.55 billion yuan [1]. - The expansion of the Arizona production base, originally planned to increase mattress production capacity, has been delayed from March 2024 to May 2027 [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. mattress market has seen a decline, with its size dropping from 10.8 billion USD in 2023 to 10.4 billion USD in 2024, influenced by economic slowdown, policy uncertainties, and inflation pressures [2]. - Mengbaihe's existing production capacity is deemed sufficient to meet current market demands, prompting the shift in investment focus to enhance risk resilience and improve capital efficiency [2]. Group 3: E-commerce Growth - Mengbaihe's overseas online business revenue surged from 263 million yuan in 2021 to 1.436 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 76.09% [3]. - The company aims to establish a self-controlled overseas warehouse to meet the growing demands of its online business, as the current rental-based warehouse network is insufficient for efficient operations [3][4]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The share of e-commerce in U.S. indoor furniture retail sales has increased significantly from 15% in 2019 to 34% in 2024, indicating a strong trend towards online sales [4]. - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by high inflation and interest rates, has led to fluctuations in furniture consumption, making it more prudent for companies to invest in enhancing online operational efficiency rather than blindly expanding production capacity [5].

一款在头部主播董宇辉直播间售卖的沙发，让顾家家居股份有限公司（603816.SH，以下简称"顾家家 居"）陷入舆论的"风口浪尖"。 近日，多家媒体报道，董宇辉团队近期在一场家居产品的专场直播中，创下单场3.56亿元销售额纪录， 其中，一款顾家家居的真皮沙发单品成交额就突破1亿元，但此后该款沙发却陷入"代工"质疑。 《中国经营报》记者日前致电顾家家居投资者关系相关负责人，对方表示公司后面会对外进行回复。而 顾家家居400客服工作人员此前向记者表示，在董宇辉直播间所售卖的顾家家居沙发，系其公司自制。 不仅如此，据报道，顾家家居相关负责人日前也对外表示："对于大家普遍关心的公司在董宇辉直播间 所售沙发均为公司自制。" 作为顾家家居旗下主要产品之一，沙发产品在顾家家居营收版图中占据重要位置，2024 年占其主营业 务收入的比例为57.56%。而在顾家家居此前近20亿元定增方案中，"功能铁架生产线扩建项目"就与沙发 产品息息相关，项目投资金额约为1.5亿元。 陷入"代工"争议 一边是亿元订单，一边却是"代工"争议，软体家居巨头顾家家居近期正遭遇"甜蜜的烦恼"。 公开信息显示，2025年12月10日，董宇辉团队在直播间创 ...

近3万套沙发谁来造？ 作者 | 孙梦圆 编辑丨于婞 来源 | 野马财经 一场创下销售纪录的直播，却把顾家家居(603816.SH)推入了舆论漩涡。 头图库 产业观察家洪仕宾表示，直播带货等渠道革新虽能快速提升销量和品牌曝光，但可能带来供应链短期承 压、利润率摊薄甚至库存风险，若过度投入可能影响基本盘的财务安全。企业需在确保财务健康的前提 下，以可控节奏探索新增长点，避免因追求规模而透支企业耐力。 截至12月30日收盘，顾家家居报收30.85元/股，总市值253.4亿元。 01 代工质疑 据"每日经济新闻"报道，产品爆单后不久，多家社交媒体平台便开始出现传言："据说现在这个订单已 经来到了广东。""3000多元买的真皮沙发，减去主播的费用、平台的费用、物流到家的费用，还要减去 品牌的费用(利润)，最后剩下来的金额才是能给到代工厂的代工价格，所以很多大厂都不敢接招"。 12月11日，抖音头部主播董宇辉在其"与辉同行"直播间举办的家居专场上，一款来自顾家家居的功能性 沙发单品成交额突破1亿元，成为当晚"销冠"，并助推整场直播总销售额突破3.56亿元。 以其中价格最低的2.8米三人位款计算，优惠后单价为3471.4元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gujia Home Furnishing Co., Ltd. has received approval for its private placement application, marking a significant capital deployment action following the entry of the "Midea System" [2][5] Group 1: Fundraising and Projects - The private placement involves a total of 19.97 billion yuan, focusing on six projects including smart upgrades of home product production lines and expansion of functional iron frame production lines [3][4] - The largest allocation of funds, amounting to 10 billion yuan, is designated for supplementing working capital, which constitutes over half of the total fundraising [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Objectives - The primary goals of the fundraising are to enhance business development, strengthen core competitiveness, consolidate the controlling position of the actual controller, and effectively respond to future challenges posed by U.S. tariff policies [2][3] - The projects are expected to improve market insight, product innovation, operational efficiency, and brand influence, providing sufficient financial reserves to navigate uncertainties in the global trade environment [3][4] Group 3: Management Changes and Market Performance - Following the change in control, Gujia Home Furnishing is undergoing significant management changes, with a trend towards "de-Gujia" as new executives from the Midea Group are appointed [6] - The company has shown signs of recovery in performance, with a reported revenue of 15.01 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the year, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.8% and 13.2% respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gujia Home Furnishing Co., Ltd. has received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for its A-share issuance, aiming to raise a total of 1.997 billion yuan, which will be fully subscribed by its controlling shareholder, Yingfeng Group, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future development [1][3] Group 1: Fundraising and Strategic Development - The funds raised will be primarily used for smart upgrades of home product production lines, expansion of functional iron frame production lines, R&D of smart home products, AI and retail digital transformation, brand digital enhancement, and replenishing working capital [1] - The strategic focus on smart manufacturing, product innovation, and digital transformation is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness and long-term profitability [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.012 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.539 billion yuan, up 13.24% year-on-year [2] - The net profit growth rate outpaced revenue growth, indicating continuous improvement in operational quality and efficiency [2] Group 3: Market Position and Product Innovation - As a leading player in the soft home furnishing sector, Gujia Home's retail transformation is showing initial success, supported by a solid global layout and internal efficiency improvements driving steady profitability [2] - The company has focused on user value and has advanced its "focus strategy" by emphasizing three strategic categories: functionality, mattresses, and customization, addressing real-life user needs with innovative products [2] - The launch of the new generation of functional sofas, such as the Yunshu, showcases the company's innovative capabilities through proprietary technology that resolves longstanding industry challenges [2]

（文/孙梅欣 编辑/张广凯） 即便作为较早就在海外进行布局的头部软体家居企业，"芝华士"沙发母公司敏华控股在最新的财年半年 报中，也开始呈现出营收压力。 敏华控股近期公布了2025/2026财年上半年业绩。根据财报显示，上半年期内（2025年4月初—9月末） 总营收82.41亿港元，同比去年同期下降2.7%，呈现下滑走势。公司毛利32.5亿港元，同比微降0.91%。 不过公司期内利润在营收同比下滑的情况下，仍然出现小幅增长，达到12.06亿港元，同比增幅约为 1%。 敏华控股坦言，期内面临全球经济增长承压、贸易保护主义升温及中国消费复苏放缓的多重夹击，这对 各行各业都形成压力。 值得注意的是，虽然敏华控股在海外市场的增长对内地的业绩下滑形成一定的对冲，但由于美国对越南 开征关税，使得公司从越南出口至美国商品的关税成本大幅攀升超过1000%，使得利润空间受到一定程 度的压缩。 从财报中看，敏华控股上半财年在内地市场营收下滑和门店减少，是拖累业绩的主要因素。 财报显示，上半财年内地市场营收同比下滑6%，降至47.4亿港元元，是各市场分布中降幅最大的区 域。同时，内地市场的营收也是公司的主力，在总营收的占比接近59 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating effective retail transformation and global expansion strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 15.012 billion yuan, net profit of 1.539 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1.389 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 8.77%, 13.24%, and 13.90% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.211 billion yuan, net profit of 518 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 489 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6.50%, 11.99%, and 11.48% respectively [1]. Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "one body, two wings, dual-core development" strategy, focusing on refined operations in the existing market, which is expected to show strong resilience in domestic sales for Q3 2025 [2]. - The company is enhancing its global layout by establishing production bases in Vietnam, Mexico, and the United States, with plans for a new base in Indonesia, thereby improving its global supply chain [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 31.4% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a decrease in expense ratios for sales, management, and financial costs, with rates of 13.8%, 1.4%, and 0.1% respectively, showing improvements of -0.2, -0.3, and -0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The overall net profit margin reached 9.9%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points [2]. Investment Outlook - As a leading player in the soft furniture industry, the company’s retail transformation and global expansion strategies are expected to create solid barriers to competition, with internal efficiency improvements driving steady profit growth [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.89 billion yuan, 2.10 billion yuan, and 2.30 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 13, 12, and 11 times [3]. - The company is assigned a target price of 38.41 yuan per share based on a 15 times PE ratio for 2026, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [3].

Core Insights - The domestic soft home furnishing industry shows a clear divergence in Q3 2025, with leading companies experiencing revenue and profit growth, while some others face revenue declines and profit losses. Group 1: Company Performance - Gujia Home achieved a revenue of 15.012 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.77%, and a net profit of 1.539 billion yuan, up 13.24% [1] - Mengbaihe reported a revenue of 6.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.29%, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, a significant increase of 205.18% [2] - Xilinmen's revenue reached 6.196 billion yuan, up 3.68%, with a net profit of 399 million yuan, an increase of 6.45% [2] - Mousse experienced a revenue decline to 3.761 billion yuan, down 3.01%, and a net profit of 467 million yuan, down 10.61% [2] - Qisheng Technology reported a revenue of 2.224 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.08%, but a net profit of 147 million yuan, down 2.74% [2] - Zhongyuan Home reported a revenue of 1.125 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.05%, and a net loss of 17.44 million yuan, a significant drop of 802.46% [2] Group 2: Business Operations - Gujia Home's cash flow from operating activities reached 1.855 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 18.97%, with cash received from sales totaling 14.905 billion yuan [1] - Mengbaihe's core product line, mattresses, generated a revenue of 3.606 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.02%, with a gross margin of 41.81%, up 4.5 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Xilinmen optimized its store count to over 5,300, improving single-store efficiency while expanding its distribution network in lower-tier markets [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit for the first three quarters reaching 15.01 billion and 1.54 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 8.8% and 13.2% [5][6] - Domestic sales are stabilizing and improving, while foreign trade shows resilience, with significant growth in mattress sales in Southeast Asia and other non-US markets [6][8] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 32.4%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 10.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and a net profit of 5.2 billion yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s operating expenses ratio for the first three quarters was 19.2%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [7] Growth Opportunities - The company is focusing on structural growth opportunities in the domestic market, particularly in functional and smart furniture, which are driving long-term performance [6][8] - The company is expanding its global footprint with production bases in Vietnam, Mexico, and the US, leading to rapid growth in non-US markets [6][8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly raises the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 2.04 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.54 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.48, 2.76, and 3.09 yuan [8][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12, 11, and 10 for the years 2025-2027, indicating that the company is currently undervalued [8][9]