2025 年 09 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 林昕宇 S0350522110005 | | | | linxy01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 赵兰亭 S0350524080004 | | | | zhaolt@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 孙馨竹 S0350124060027 | | | | sunxz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 外贸业务稳步增长，一体两翼持续推进 9 月 2 日，顾家家居发布公告，公司拟使用人民币 11.24 亿元投资建 设顾家家居印尼自建基地项目，项目计划于 2025 年三季度启动，总 体建设周期计划为 4 年，建设期内部分产线陆续投产，预计在全部 建成后的 3 年内达纲，达纲时预计实现年营业收入约 25.20 亿元。 中报业绩亮眼，2025H1 收入利润双位数增长。2025H1，公司实现 营业收入 98.01 亿元/同比增长 10.02%；实现归母净利润 10.21 亿元 /同比增长 13.89% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the challenges faced by the home furnishing industry, characterized by internal competition stagnation and external pressures leading to painful outcomes [1] - The term "going abroad" has become a popular phrase in the home furnishing industry, with the sentiment that "if you don't go abroad, you will be out" gaining traction [1] - The article discusses the adverse effects of globalization reversal, including tariff barriers and the challenges of adapting to local laws and cultural practices when entering foreign markets [1] Group 2 - The article identifies key strategies for breaking through the competitive landscape, particularly through high-end and brand-oriented approaches, exemplified by companies like Iola and Mussi [1] - Iola is noted as the only "double growth" company in the custom home furnishing sector, attributed to its successful high-end positioning and brand development [1] - Companies like Kuka Home and Golden Medal are highlighted as successful examples of navigating external competition effectively, with Kuka Home achieving significant overseas revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mousse Health Sleep Co., Ltd. is facing renewed allegations from distributors regarding profit exploitation and financial misconduct, with previous complaints surfacing in 2021 and 2023, raising concerns about the company's operational integrity and reliance on its distribution model [1][17][19]. Group 1: Distributor Complaints - Several distributors from Jiangsu and Chongqing have accused Mousse of requiring regular store renovations, imposing various fines categorized as "off-balance income," and manipulating profit figures [1][3][10]. - A distributor reported a loss exceeding 10 million yuan due to Mousse's practices, which include monopolizing store decoration contracts and enforcing strict compliance with renovation schedules [4][8]. - Complaints also highlight that Mousse forces distributors to purchase new products under threat of penalties, leading to financial strain on the distributors [8][10]. Group 2: Company Response - Mousse has denied the allegations, asserting that all claims are unfounded and that the company operates within legal and accounting standards, with its financial reports receiving unqualified opinions from auditing firms [1][17]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to treating distributors as strategic partners and aims for mutual growth [17]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Business Model - Mousse's revenue heavily relies on its distribution model, with 74.13% of its revenue in 2024 coming from distributors, amounting to approximately 4.15 billion yuan [1][21]. - The company reported a slight increase in total revenue from 5.58 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.60 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a 0.43% growth [21]. - The furniture manufacturing segment remains the primary revenue source, contributing 98.56% of total revenue, with mattress sales alone accounting for 47.81% [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - Mousse Health Sleep Co., Ltd. is facing serious allegations from its distributors regarding profit exploitation, mandatory store renovations, and potential financial misconduct, which the company has denied, claiming compliance with accounting standards [1][17]. Group 1: Distributor Complaints - Several distributors from Jiangsu and Chongqing have reported that Mousse coerces them into regular store renovations to extract profits and imposes various fines categorized as "off-balance income" [1][4]. - Distributors allege that Mousse compresses the sales cycle for new products, forcing them to purchase unsold inventory, which inflates the company's sales figures [11][6]. - A distributor reported losses exceeding 10 million yuan due to Mousse's practices, including mandatory procurement of store decorations exclusively from the company [6][11]. Group 2: Company Response - Mousse has publicly stated that the allegations from distributors are unfounded and that the company operates legally and in accordance with accounting principles, with all financial reports receiving "standard unqualified opinions" from auditing firms [1][17]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to treating distributors as strategic partners and aims for mutual growth [17]. Group 3: Historical Context - This is not the first instance of distributor complaints; in 2023, a collaboration with influencer Xinba led to significant dissatisfaction among distributors when a mattress priced at 20,000 yuan was sold for under 5,000 yuan during a live stream [17][18]. - In 2021, a former distributor publicly accused Mousse of IPO data fraud and tax evasion, which the company also denied, asserting compliance with tax laws [18]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Mousse's revenue heavily relies on its distribution model, with 74.13% of its revenue in 2024 coming from distributors, amounting to approximately 4.15 billion yuan [19][21]. - The company's total revenue for 2024 was approximately 5.60 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.43% compared to the previous year [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company has shown stable domestic sales and continued growth in foreign trade, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - The company's revenue for 1H2025 reached 9.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.02 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year [5]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of the company's retail transformation and its ability to withstand risks in foreign trade, particularly through its operations in Vietnam and the expansion of its OBM business in Southeast Asia [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, with cash flow from operating activities at 1.09 billion yuan, reflecting a 71.9% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - The revenue breakdown by product categories shows sofas, beds, integrated products, and custom products generating 5.67 billion, 1.69 billion, 1.16 billion, and 550 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.7%, 10.3%, -8.2%, and 12.6% [6]. Cost and Profitability - The overall gross margin for 1H2025 was 32.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 10.4% [6]. - The company's expense ratio for the period was 20.1%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [7]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its retail operations and digital capabilities, which are expected to drive growth in the second half of the year [8]. - The expansion of the company's manufacturing capacity in Vietnam is anticipated to significantly cover the demand in the U.S. market, enhancing its resilience against global trade policy fluctuations [8]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 have been slightly adjusted upwards to 19.78 billion yuan and 1.91 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a 3% and 4% increase [9]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is 2.33 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - Several soft furniture companies are exploring the hotel industry as a means to expand into downstream sectors amid an overall industry downturn [1][4]. Group 1: Company Initiatives - Left Home has opened its first hotel, "Left Home Happiness Hotel," in Shenzhen, featuring 156 rooms priced between 300-500 RMB, positioning itself in the mid-range hotel market [1]. - Dream Lily has launched its first hotel, "Dream Lily Zero Pressure Hotel," in Shanghai, with 119 rooms equipped with its signature zero-pressure smart beds, emphasizing a deep sleep concept [1][3]. - Both companies are transitioning from product manufacturers to lifestyle service providers, marking a significant shift in their business models [1][3]. Group 2: Business Strategy - Dream Lily aims to open 2,000 hotels, integrating hotel functions with product experience and sales, effectively turning each hotel into a showroom for its products [3]. - Left Home's hotel also allows guests to purchase furniture directly from their rooms, utilizing technology to collect user sleep data for product development [3][4]. - The core strategy for both companies remains focused on selling products, despite the hotel industry's emphasis on service operations [4]. Group 3: Industry Context - Historically, soft furniture companies like Dream Lily and Left Home have collaborated with hotel chains, indicating a trend of moving from suppliers to direct competitors in the hotel space [5]. - Dream Lily previously partnered with major hotel groups and has recently taken legal action against them, highlighting the competitive dynamics in the industry [6]. - The hotel business for both companies is still in its early stages, and it remains uncertain whether this will become a significant growth area for them [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Mousse Co., Ltd. regarding the repurchase and cancellation of shares has led to a significant drop in the public shareholding ratio, putting the company at risk of delisting. To address this, the company proposed a capital reserve plan to increase its share capital, aiming to restore compliance with listing requirements [2][3][4]. Share Repurchase and Compliance Issues - The company initially planned to repurchase shares for employee stock incentives but later changed the purpose to direct cancellation to boost investor confidence. This change led to a failure to meet the listing conditions due to the different timelines for cancellation [5][6]. - Following the cancellation of 4.266 million shares, the total share capital fell below 400 million shares, resulting in a public shareholding ratio of 19.11%, which is below the required 25% for listing [5][6]. Capital Increase Proposal - To resolve the compliance issue, the company proposed a plan to increase its share capital by 10% through a capital reserve distribution, which would raise the total share capital to 435 million shares, thus meeting the listing requirements [7]. - The board has approved this proposal, which will be submitted for shareholder approval on August 13, 2025 [7]. Financial Performance and Market Position - Mousse Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 5.603 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.43% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.36% to 767 million yuan [10][11]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 6.66% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 16.43% [10][11]. - The company is facing pressure from a significant upcoming share unlock event in December 2025, which could lead to increased selling pressure on the stock [9]. Strategic Initiatives - To counteract the declining performance, the company has outlined a strategy focusing on health sleep products, AI innovations, and international market expansion [10]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings with AI mattresses and expand its distribution channels, including new markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, as well as leveraging emerging e-commerce platforms [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in foreign trade, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [5] - The company is focusing on its core sofa category and expanding its custom business, with significant growth in retail sales for functional sofas and mattresses [6][9] - The company is implementing a "1+N+X" channel strategy to enhance its market presence and has established stable partnerships with key clients in the foreign trade sector [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 18.48 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.42 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% and 29.4% respectively [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.91 billion yuan and a net profit of 520 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.9% and 23.5% respectively [5] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 32.7%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.7%, down by 2.8 percentage points [8] Segment Performance - Revenue by product category in 2024: sofas (10.20 billion yuan, +9.1%), beds (3.25 billion yuan, -20.8%), integrated products (2.44 billion yuan, -19.5%), and custom products (990 million yuan, +12.7%) [6] - Domestic sales revenue was 9.36 billion yuan, down 14.4%, while foreign sales revenue was 8.37 billion yuan, up 11.3% [7] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to deepen its domestic "one body, two wings" strategy and global expansion in foreign trade, focusing on core categories like functional sofas and bedroom mattresses [9][10] - The company aims to enhance its marketing system and expand its manufacturing base globally, particularly in non-US markets [9]

Core Insights - Gujia Home achieved a revenue of 18.48 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.417 billion RMB in 2024, demonstrating resilience amid industry challenges through business transformation and efficiency improvements [1] - In Q1 2025, Gujia Home reported a revenue of 4.914 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.95%, and a net profit of 519 million RMB, up 23.53% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.38 RMB per share, totaling 1.134 billion RMB, which represents 80.06% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Management and Governance - Gujia Home has upgraded its governance structure by introducing professional managers, including a new chairman and four vice presidents with extensive operational experience [1][2] - The management team is characterized by a younger demographic, which enhances sensitivity to emerging consumer trends and market dynamics [2] - The company has improved its operational efficiency, with sales and management expense ratios decreasing to 15.21% and 2.39%, respectively [2] Retail Transformation - The company has successfully implemented a user-centric retail transformation, with membership exceeding 6 million and monthly active users growing by 84% [4] - Gujia Home has launched the first full-chain "AI Design Brain" in the home furnishing industry, enhancing its production capabilities [4] - The company is expanding its shopping center channels, achieving a natural traffic rate nearly ten times higher than traditional stores, with new stores achieving payback in as little as three months [5] Emerging Business Growth - Gujia Home's self-owned brand business is expanding internationally, with stores established in countries like India, Thailand, and Vietnam [5] - The company has developed a differentiated competitive edge in the market through its integrated product offerings and service capabilities [5] Market Outlook - Multiple institutions, including Huatai Securities and Guojin Securities, have expressed optimism about Gujia Home's performance in 2025, with several giving "buy" ratings [6] - The company remains committed to its strategic directions of being a user-oriented, digital, and whole-home enterprise, focusing on retail transformation and efficiency [6]

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