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安井食品:公司季报点评:需求相对平淡,利润率有所承压
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-30 00:38
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 11.077 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.84%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.65% to 1.047 billion yuan [6][8] - The report indicates that the company's gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.93%, a decrease of 2.04 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased expenses and a reduction in government subsidies [6][8] - The company is expected to have an EPS of 5.04 yuan in 2024, with a projected valuation range of 100.8 to 126 yuan based on a PE ratio of 20-25 times [8][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 3.533 billion yuan, up 4.63% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [6] - The revenue from the dish products segment increased by 24.12% year-on-year, while the revenue from the new retail channel surged by 95.93% [7][8] - The company experienced a net increase of 105 distributors, bringing the total to 2,069 [8] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.251 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 1.479 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [9][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 23.9% by 2026 [11][12] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 88.88 yuan on October 29, 2024, with a 52-week price range of 68.20 to 130.99 yuan [2] - The report notes a relative performance comparison with the market index, indicating a decline of 7.6% over the past month [4]
安井食品:2024Q3点评:经营承压,关注新品拓展
Soochow Securities· 2024-10-29 19:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.077 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.84%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.047 billion yuan, down 6.65% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, up 4.63% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [2] - The company continues to see strong performance in its fresh-lock packaging segment, with new products driving accelerated growth in prepared dishes [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue to reach 15.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.64% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.433 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 3.04% year-on-year [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 4.89 yuan per share for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 18.79 [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.93%, down 2.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.92%, down 4.53 percentage points year-on-year [4] Product Performance Summary - The revenue performance by product in Q3 2024 showed a mixed trend: frozen prepared foods increased by 24.12%, while frozen noodle and rice products decreased by 9.49% [3] - The company maintains a leading advantage in the frozen hot pot ingredient market, with a clear strategy focusing on rice, hot pot ingredients, and grilled sausages [5]
安井食品:2024年三季报点评:加大竞争力度,短期盈利波动
Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [4] - Target price remains at 113.37 RMB [4] - Current price is 91.79 RMB [4] Core Views - Revenue growth remains steady in Q3 2024, but profitability fluctuates due to increased equity payment expenses and intensified promotions [5] - The company maintains strong competitive advantages in the long term and is expected to outperform competitors [7] - Lock-fresh products continue to grow rapidly, and new categories, channels, and customers are being actively developed [7] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 11.08 billion RMB, up 7.84% YoY [7] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit: 1.05 billion RMB, down 6.65% YoY [7] - Q3 2024 revenue: 3.53 billion RMB, up 4.63% YoY [7] - Q3 2024 net profit: 244 million RMB, down 36.76% YoY [7] - Q3 2024 gross margin: 19.9%, down 2.0 pct YoY [7] Business Segments - Frozen prepared food revenue: -0.1% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - Dishes revenue: +24.1% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - Rice and noodle products revenue: -9.5% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] Channels - Distributor channel revenue: +3.2% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - Special direct sales channel revenue: -12.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - Supermarket channel revenue: +15.1% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - New retail channel revenue: +95.9% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] - E-commerce channel revenue: +0.4% YoY in Q3 2024 [7] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts adjusted to 5.06, 5.70, and 6.40 RMB, respectively [7] - 2024-2026 revenue growth expected at 8.5%, 11.1%, and 10.8% [12] - 2024-2026 net profit growth expected at 0.4%, 12.7%, and 12.3% [12] Valuation Metrics - 2024 PE ratio: 18.15x [12] - 2024 PB ratio: 1.95x [14] - 2024 PS ratio: 1.77x [14] Historical Performance - 52-week stock price range: 68.93-129.22 RMB [8] - 1-month stock price increase: 2% [11] - 3-month stock price increase: 25% [11] - 12-month stock price decrease: 24% [11]
安井食品:第三季度收入同比增长4.63%,盈利受到短期因素扰动
Guoxin Securities· 2024-10-29 13:38
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 4.63% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 11.077 billion yuan, a 7.84% increase year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.65% to 1.047 billion yuan [1][4] - The company is experiencing good growth in its dish products, with a 24% year-on-year increase in Q3 2024, while other product categories like rice and noodle products saw declines [1][4] - The company is expanding its new retail channel, achieving a 96% year-on-year revenue growth in this segment [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, a 4.63% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [1][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased to 19.9%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price declines [5] - The company expects improved sales performance in Q4 2024, driven by early stocking for the upcoming Spring Festival and the seasonal demand for hot pot products [5][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 15.192 billion, 16.393 billion, and 17.532 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.2%, 7.9%, and 7.0% [7][8] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 1.458 billion, 1.624 billion, and 1.751 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 1.4% in 2024, followed by increases of 11.4% and 7.8% in 2025 and 2026 [7][8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 4.97, 5.54, and 5.97 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.5, 16.6, and 15.4 [7][8]
安井食品:盈利能力阶段性承压,稳步经营期待需求好转
Huafu Securities· 2024-10-29 09:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 35.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.76% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability due to declining gross margins and rising expenses, with a gross margin of 19.93% in Q3 2024, down 2.04 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand following the Chinese New Year, supported by macroeconomic policies and improved consumer cash flow [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 110.77 billion yuan, up 7.84% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.47 billion yuan, down 6.65% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s revenue breakdown for Q3 2024 shows significant growth in the new retail channel, which increased by 95.93% year-on-year, while the traditional distribution channels experienced mixed results [2]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 14.62 billion yuan, 17.03 billion yuan, and 19.32 billion yuan for the respective years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18x for 2024, 16x for 2025, and 14x for 2026 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.98 yuan, 5.80 yuan, and 6.59 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5].
安井食品:虽受需求端扰动,主业仍有韧性
Ping An Securities· 2024-10-29 08:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Anjoy Food [2][7] Core Views - Despite demand-side disturbances, the main business of Anjoy Food shows resilience [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 11.077 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.84%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.65% to 1.047 billion yuan [3][4] - The company continues to focus on developing 3-5 strategic big products each year, optimizing product structure, and increasing the proportion of mid-to-high-end products [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [3][4] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 22.64%, up 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 9.59% [4] - The company’s revenue from frozen prepared foods, frozen dishes, and other product categories showed varied growth, with frozen prepared foods increasing by 13.88% [5] Sales Channel Performance - The new retail channel saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 41.95% year-on-year, while the direct sales channel experienced a decline of 14.53% [5][7] - The company’s revenue from the domestic market was primarily driven by the East China region, which generated 4.750 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.58% [7] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 1.499 billion yuan, 1.656 billion yuan, and 1.806 billion yuan respectively [7] - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.11 yuan, 5.64 yuan, and 6.16 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.0, 16.3, and 14.9 [7][10]
安井食品:24Q3收入符合预期,盈利能力阶段性承压
申万宏源· 2024-10-29 06:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.08 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.65% to 1.05 billion yuan [3] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, but the net profit dropped by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [3] - The report highlights a balanced development strategy focusing on "BC integration" and "three-pronged approach" for long-term growth [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 15.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0% [4] - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.46 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 1.1% compared to the previous year [4] - The earnings per share for 2024 is forecasted to be 4.98 yuan [4] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 22.8% [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected at 10.8% [4] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, revenue from frozen prepared foods was 1.79 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [3] - Revenue from dish products reached 1.13 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 24% year-on-year [3] - Revenue from rice and flour products was 530 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year due to intensified competition [3] Channel Performance - Revenue from distributors, supermarkets, special channels, e-commerce, and new retail in Q3 2024 showed varied performance, with supermarkets increasing by 15.1% year-on-year [3] - New retail revenue surged by 95.9% year-on-year, attributed to enhanced collaboration with Hema [3]
安井食品2024三季报点评:主业新品表现良好,适度竞争盈利阶段性承压
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2024-10-29 05:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's main products performed well in Q3 2024, with new retail channels showing strong growth, while special channels experienced a decline [2] - The decline in net profit in Q3 2024 is primarily attributed to a decrease in government subsidies and increased marketing and promotional expenses [2] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 7%, 11%, and 12% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit forecasts showing a slight decline in 2024 followed by recovery in subsequent years [3] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.08 billion yuan (+7.8%) and a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan (-6.7%) [1] - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 3.53 billion yuan (+4.6%), while net profit dropped to 240 million yuan (-36.8%) [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 22.6% (+0.6 percentage points), while the net margin was 9.6% (-1.5 percentage points) [2] Product Performance - Revenue from frozen prepared foods, frozen dishes, and frozen agricultural products showed varied growth, with frozen prepared foods increasing by 13.9% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue from frozen prepared foods decreased slightly by 0.1%, while frozen dishes increased by 24.1% [2] Channel Performance - Revenue from new retail channels grew significantly by 95.9% in Q3 2024, while special direct sales channels saw a decline of 12.4% [2] - Overall revenue from distributors increased by 9.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company has experienced a decline in net profit margins due to increased competition and higher expenses related to marketing and promotions [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 19.9% (-2.0 percentage points) [2] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.08 billion yuan, 16.71 billion yuan, and 18.66 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 1.41 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4% year-on-year, followed by a recovery of 15% in 2025 and 2026 [3]
安井食品:2024年三季报点评:盈利风险释放,务实收入优先
Huachuang Securities· 2024-10-29 04:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100 yuan, while the current price is 91.79 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.077 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.84%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.65% to 1.047 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.533 billion yuan, up 4.63% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 36.76% to 244 million yuan [1]. - The report highlights that despite weak demand and intensified competition, the company’s new products and dish products showed good growth, driving single-digit revenue growth in Q3 [1]. - The company is shifting its pricing strategy from "high quality, mid-high price" to "high quality, mid-price" to adapt to the competitive environment, which may lead to short-term profit margin declines but is expected to benefit long-term market positioning [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company’s revenue was 11.077 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.84%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.047 billion yuan, down 6.65% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.9%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional efforts for mid-to-low-end products and a higher proportion of low-margin new products [1]. - The report projects the company’s total revenue for 2024 to be 15.446 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.0%, and a net profit of 1.406 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4.9% [2]. Business Segment Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company’s frozen prepared products and rice and flour products saw declines of 0.1% and 9.5% year-on-year, respectively, indicating significant pressure on the main business due to external factors [1]. - The report notes that the company’s dish products, particularly from the "Little Chef" and "Frozen Products" brands, experienced substantial growth, contributing to the overall revenue increase [1]. - The company’s distribution channels showed varied performance, with new retail and e-commerce channels growing by 95.9% and 0.4% year-on-year, respectively, while traditional channels like special channels saw a decline of 12.4% [1].
安井食品24Q3点评:新品扎实亮眼,盈利短期扰动
Huaan Securities· 2024-10-29 04:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a solid performance in new products, although profitability experienced short-term disturbances [1] - Q3 revenue reached 3.53 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 240 million yuan, a decrease of 36.8% [1] - The company expects to benefit from seasonal demand in Q4 and the recovery of the restaurant chain, with new product iterations and strong channel capabilities anticipated to drive growth [1] Revenue Analysis - Q3 revenue breakdown by product categories showed frozen prepared foods and frozen dishes with revenue changes of -0.1% and +24.1% respectively, with standout performances from fresh-keeping packaging, grilled sausages, and crayfish [1] - Regional revenue growth in Q3 varied, with East China and South China showing positive growth of +0.9% and +11.8% respectively, while North China and Southwest China experienced declines of -5.4% and -4.8% [1] Profitability Metrics - Q3 gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 19.9%, primarily due to increased promotional activities and a higher proportion of lower-margin frozen dishes [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 fell by 4.5 percentage points to 6.9% [1] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 15.2 billion, 16.8 billion, and 18.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +8.0%, +10.6%, and +10.2% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.45 billion, 1.67 billion, and 1.90 billion yuan for the same period, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -2.0%, +15.0%, and +14.2% [2] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the forecasted years are 20.76, 18.58, and 16.15, indicating that the stock is trading at historical low valuation levels [2] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are projected to be 2.43, 2.00, and 1.89 for the next three years [2]