Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Food's Q3 performance is stable, with significant growth in new products and channels, bolstered by the consolidation of Dingwei Thai [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company maintains steady growth in traditional businesses such as frozen prepared foods and frozen dishes [1] - Gross profit margin remains stable, while sales and management expense ratios have decreased [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The C-end fresh-lock packaging series is rapidly capturing market share, enhancing profitability and brand influence [1] - The supermarket channel benefits from product customization with traditional retailers like Walmart [1] - Significant growth in direct sales is attributed to long-term partnerships with various restaurant chains and upstream supply chain companies in the snack food sector [1] - Revenue from new retail and e-commerce channels is steadily increasing due to platform collaborations [1] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Rating - Based on comparable company valuation averages, the 6-month target price is set at 94.05 yuan, corresponding to a 19.7x PE for 2026 [1] - The investment rating is "Buy-A" [1]

今年九十月份以来餐饮渠道的整体表现如何？是否有具体数据可以佐证？ 以调味料和冻品为例，餐饮渠道在九十月份的表现有所复苏。具体来看，9 月 份调味料的增长约为 4%，冻品增长约为 8%。10 月份调味料增长约 7%，冻 品则在 8%到 10%之间。整体来看，这两个品类在九十月份相比去年同期都有 所增长。 十一月份的数据情况如何？ 虽然十一月份尚无财务报告，但根据库房出库数据，冻品出库量同比增长 13.3%，调味料增长 6.5%。总体来看，九月至十一月期间渠道端客户状况较 为健康，但与全年预期目标仍有差距。例如，1 至 11 月调味料的平均增幅仅为 4.9%，低于预期的 6-7%；冻品增幅也只有 9%左右，同样低于预期的 15%。 餐饮供应链渠道深度跟踪 20251209 摘要 九至十一月餐饮渠道复苏加速，主要受益于季节性节庆活动、品牌促销 以及直营模式的灵活性，但 1-11 月调味料和冻品平均增幅分别仅为 4.9%和 9%，低于全年预期。 2025 年前 11 月，安井销售额已达 10 亿多元，思念达成 8 亿左右，三 全增长仅 3%，湾仔增长 2%，央厨负增长 7%，知味香预计能完成年度 任务。安井通过新品类 ...

机构评级来看，近5日共有3家机构给予该股评级，预计目标价最高的是华泰证券，12月8日华泰证券发 布的研报预计公司目标价为113.04元。（数据宝） 12月9日安井食品大宗交易一览 | 成交量 | 成交金 | 成交价 | 相对当日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万 | 额 | 格 | 收盘折溢 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 股） | （万 | （元） | 价 | | | | | 元） | | （%） | | | | 20.00 | 1700.00 | 85.00 | 6.54 | 中国银河证券股份有限公司北京金融街 | 中信证券股份有限公司河北 | | | | | | 证券营业部 | 分公司 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 安井食品12月9日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量20.00万股，成交金额1700.00万元，大宗交易成交 价为85.00元，相对今日收盘价溢价6.54%。该笔交易的买方营业部为中国银河证券股份有限公司北京金 融街证券营业部，卖方营业部为中信证券股份有限公司河北分公司。 证券时报•数据 ...

| 反崇垫运信息 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( *) 买入营业部 | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | 025-12-09 | 安井食品 | 603345 | જેટ 1700 我開發動能發盤 | 20 | 去筒膏乳劈纹有限 | ко | 12月9日，安井食品大宗交易成交20万股，成交额1700万元，占当日总成交额的5.5%，成交价85元，较 市场收盘价79.78元溢价6.54%。 ...

Macro Analysis - In November 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the fading high base effect and sustained overseas demand [1] - Looking ahead, December's export growth may face high base effects, but optimism remains for next year's overseas demand due to global fiscal expansion and improved China-US trade relations [1] Real Estate Industry - As of December 7, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 720,000 units, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year; Beijing saw 37,000 units (-19%), Shanghai 95,000 units (-5%), and Shenzhen 25,000 units (-33%) [2] - In the secondary housing market, transactions in 10 cities reached 711,000 units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year; Beijing recorded 160,000 units (+1%), Shanghai 236,000 units (+8%), and Shenzhen 64,000 units (+9%) [2] Company Research - For Anjins Food (603345.SH), the forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.391 billion, 1.513 billion, and 1.672 billion yuan, translating to EPS of 4.17, 4.54, and 5.02 yuan, with current P/E ratios of 19, 18, and 16 times respectively [3] - The company's short-term operations are improving, with a gradual recovery in profitability expected as industry price competition eases; if the consumption environment improves next year, performance elasticity is anticipated [3] - New products and channel strategies are actively evolving, with expected positive outcomes in the future, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a positive trend in its operations for the fourth quarter, with a potential easing of price competition in the industry [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - The company has seen an improvement in downstream restaurant demand and a reduction in promotional efforts, leading to better order placements as the peak season approaches [1] - The company has shifted its growth strategy from channel-driven to product-driven, with significant contributions from new product launches, particularly in shrimp products [1] Group 2: New Product Development - The company emphasizes a product-driven approach, aiming to increase the proportion of C-end sales to 40%, with a focus on continuous innovation and the introduction of popular products [2] - Key products include high-margin vacuum-sealed packaging, which has seen nearly double-digit revenue growth, and the successful introduction of shrimp products into major retail systems [2] - The company is also expanding into new areas such as frozen baking and halal food, with plans to increase production capacity in these segments [2] Group 3: Channel Strategy - The company has adopted a customized approach for major retail partners, establishing collaborations with leading supermarket chains and improving operational efficiency through a tiered management system [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its operational precision in channel management while embracing changes in the retail landscape [3] Group 4: Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.391 billion, 1.513 billion, and 1.672 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 4.17, 4.54, and 5.02 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 19, 18, and 16 for the respective years, indicating a potential for recovery in profitability as industry competition eases [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that some essential consumer companies have shown accelerated financial reporting and signs of fundamental improvement in Q3 2025, with certain discretionary consumer sub-sectors recovering ahead of essential consumption [1] - The frozen food category within essential consumption is showing signs of revenue improvement, and the industry price war has eased, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery among major companies [1] - Anjins Foods, as a leading company in the frozen food industry, is driving growth through product innovation and structural adjustments, effectively embracing strategies such as customized offerings for large B2B supermarkets, which are expected to lead to continued operational improvement [1] Group 2 - The company's growth strategy is clearly defined, focusing on diversification through embracing new channels such as O2O instant retail, membership-based supermarkets, and bulk snack stores, while also exploring customized and differentiated products to tap into incremental growth opportunities [1] - The company is expanding its overseas revenue by targeting the Southeast Asian market, which has similar dietary cultures, vast space, and a fragmented landscape, thereby opening up broader growth potential [1] - The report assigns a "buy" rating for the company with a target price of 113.04 yuan, up from a previous value of 101.64 yuan, corresponding to a 22x PE for 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Moutai's wholesale prices has temporarily suppressed the performance of the sector, but potential policy-driven consumption catalysts in December are noteworthy. Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at relatively low historical levels, indicating clear bottom logic for quality assets like liquor. The focus on three main lines in the consumer goods sector presents structural opportunities, with recommendations to continue investing in liquor and consumer goods with specific logic. It is expected that the consumer goods sector will outperform liquor, with liquor demand stabilizing as the market awaits the Spring Festival [1][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - This week, the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3902.81 points, a weekly change of 0.37%. The food and beverage sector experienced a weekly decline of 1.90%, underperforming the market by 2.27 percentage points, ranking 30th among Shenwan's primary industry classifications [2][15]. - Among the various sub-sectors of food and beverage, the performance from highest to lowest was as follows: pre-processed foods (+1.51%), beer (+1.20%), soft drinks (+0.43%), meat products (-0.11%), health products (-0.17%), seasoning and fermented products (-0.32%), snacks (-0.73%), dairy products (-1.74%), liquor (-2.59%), and other alcoholic beverages (-3.06%) [2][15]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Clear signals of industry bottoming are evident, presenting opportunities for undervalued investments. Liquor demand is in a bottoming phase, with sales still under pressure but gradually recovering compared to Q3. Liquor companies are expected to continue the trend of performance clearing, actively alleviating market burdens. The liquor sector's valuation is at historical lows, providing strong bottom configuration value, while potential consumption policy catalysts are also noteworthy [3][16]. - For consumer goods, focus on three structural opportunities: 1) Improvement in the restaurant supply chain and supermarket customization, with a reduction in price wars and lighter channel inventory burdens as the traditional peak season approaches. 2) The health and functional product segment is experiencing high growth, with leading oat brands benefiting from the "oat+" health trend. 3) The price cycle is nearing a turning point, with expected improvements in upstream profitability as raw milk prices stabilize [3][16]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the liquor sector, the recent global distributor conference for Fenjiu emphasized the certainty of future growth, with expectations for the domestic economy to stabilize and recover, supported by policy and consumption revival. This is anticipated to lead to a dual leap in cultural value and market scale for liquor as a cyclical industry [4][17]. - The average milk price in major production areas was 3.02 yuan/kg in the last week of November, down 0.1 yuan/kg, indicating a continued bottoming of raw milk prices. The first batch of deep-processed products from Mengniu has passed testing and is expected to contribute to performance improvements in the dairy sector as production capacity increases [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks and sectors within the industry [4]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with Shanxi Fenjiu focusing on national expansion, youth engagement, and internationalization strategies for 2026. The company is optimizing inventory and enhancing market capacity, which is expected to support growth [2]. - In the beverage sector, companies like Nongfu Spring are planning to strengthen their water and tea product lines while introducing new products. The beer segment is diversifying with new flavors to cater to changing consumer preferences [3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in consumer staples, with companies like Three Squirrels expanding into a full-category strategy and Mengniu Dairy leading in deep processing innovations [7]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2026 marketing strategy focuses on nationalization, youth engagement, and precise consumer service. The company is targeting key markets and optimizing inventory to enhance growth potential [2]. - The white liquor industry is characterized by bottoming out in sales, clearing financial reports, and low expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for quality asset allocation [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer sector is witnessing the launch of new products like Jin Xing Beer’s winter flavor, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns towards home and outdoor settings [3]. - Nongfu Spring's strategy for 2026 includes strengthening its core water products and expanding its tea offerings, indicating a focus on product diversification and market penetration [3]. Consumer Staples - Three Squirrels is advancing its full-category strategy with the opening of flagship stores, emphasizing community engagement and a wide range of products [7]. - Mengniu Dairy is enhancing its product line with deep processing innovations, which are expected to drive demand and improve the utilization of raw milk [7]. - The frozen food sector is recovering, with companies like Anjuke benefiting from new product launches and channel optimizations, indicating a positive market response [7].

行 业 及 产 业 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 高端酒批价回落 关注需求承接 食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 06 日 相关研究 《茅台股东会传递务实信号 月度金股推荐 泸州老窖 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251124-20251128》 2025/11/30 《市场大幅调整 板块相对跑赢 ——食品 饮料行业周报 20251117-20251121》 2025/11/22 《黎明前夕，曙光将至——2026 年食品 ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 证 券 研 究 报 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(res ...