出品 | 创业最前线 作者 | 付艳翠 编辑 | 冯羽 美编 | 邢静 审核 | 颂文 最近，西贝与罗永浩那场为期120天的"预制菜之争"看似落下帷幕，但公众对预制菜的质疑与讨论远未平息。 曾经被资本热捧为"万亿蓝海"的预制菜赛道，如今却频频陷入舆论漩涡，甚至成了餐饮企业避之不及的敏感词。 随着"拒绝预制菜"成为社交平台上的新共识，越来越多食客宁愿多等十分钟、多花几块钱，也要选择明厨亮灶、现点现炒的餐厅。 在这股消费情绪转向的浪潮下，曾凭借预制菜业务实现高速增长的"冻品一哥"安井食品，也开始感受到寒意。 数据显示，安井食品的预制菜（即速冻菜肴）业务在2025年前三季度实现营收36.43亿元，同比增长9.19%，依然是公司各业务板块中营收增速最快的一 项。然而，相较于2021年高达112.41%的同比增速，该业务的增长势头已明显放缓。 与此同时，安井速冻主业的增长红利也在消退。2025年前三季度，速冻调制食品收入仅微增0.72%，而速冻面米制品营收则同比下降5.4%，显露出传统核 心品类的增长乏力。 当预制菜业务C端信任尚未重建、B端客户订单竞争不断加大，传统速冻业务面临增长瓶颈的双重压力，这家曾靠冷冻食品、火 ...

证券之星消息，1月30日食品加工板块较上一交易日下跌0.68%，*ST春天领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4117.95，下跌0.96%。深证成指报收于14205.89，下跌0.66%。食品加工板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600381 | *ST春天 | 3.51 | -4.88% | 1.52万 | 532.22万 | | 920826 | 盖世食品 | 13.54 | -3.63% | 5.84万 | 8054.52万 | | 300146 | 汤臣倍健 | 12.17 | -2.48% | 20.30万 | 2.48亿 | | 603345 | 安井食品 | 89.31 | -1.96% | 4.71万 | 4.22亿 | | 300791 | 仙乐健康 | 23.40 | -1.72% | 5.91万 | 1.39亿 | | 00 ...

格隆汇1月29日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年1月27日，安井食品(02648.HK)获Schroders PLC在场内以每股均价75.285港元增持14.05万股，涉 资约1057.75万港元。 | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 買入 / 費出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日 相關法 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期 | 原因 | 股份數目 | | （請參関上述 * 註 | | | | | | | 份自分比 年) | | | | | | | (%) | | CS20260129E00113 | Schroders PLC 140,500(L | 1101(L) | | HKD 75.2850 | 2.487.000(L) 6.22(L)27/01/2026 | | 股份代號: | 02648 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 安井食品集團股份有限公司 - H股 | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | 29/12/2025 - 29/0 ...

证券之星消息，1月29日食品加工板块较上一交易日上涨1.22%，三全食品领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4157.98，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于14300.08，下跌0.3%。食品加工板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002216 | 三年食品 | 11.93 | 4.19% | 15.94万 | | 1.87亿 | | 920429 | 康比特 | 16.29 | 3.56% | 2.99万 | 4816.29万 | | | 002330 | 得利斯 | 5.32 | 3.50% | 39.87万 | | 2.12亿 | | 920826 | 盖世食品 | 14.05 | 3.16% | 7.80万 | | 1.08亿 | | 603345 | 安井食品 | 91.10 | 2.71% | 5.98万 | | 5.39亿 | | 600073 | 光明肉业 | 6.69 | 2.45% | 23.19万 | | 1.54亿 | | 60353 ...

截至9月30日，安井食品股东户数6.32万，较上期增加78.56%；人均流通股4641股，较上期减少 43.98%。2025年1月-9月，安井食品实现营业收入113.71亿元，同比增长2.66%；归母净利润9.49亿元， 同比减少9.35%。 分红方面，安井食品A股上市后累计派现32.19亿元。近三年，累计派现25.21亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，安井食品十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股540.10万股，相比上期减少653.91万股。中庚价值先锋股票（012930）位居第八大流通股 东，持股430.55万股，相比上期减少11.35万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）退出十大流通股东之列。 1月27日，安井食品跌1.98%，成交额3.24亿元。两融数据显示，当日安井食品获融资买入额3054.28万 元，融资偿还3098.93万元，融资净买入-44.64万元。截至1月27日，安井食品融资融券余额合计4.04亿 元。 融资方面，安井食品当日融资买入3054.28万元。当前融资余额3.96亿元，占流通市值的1.54%，融资余 额低于近一年30%分位水平，处于低位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The restaurant industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with a shift towards efficiency in operations and a focus on customized meal supply [6][32] - The report identifies three potential development paths for the restaurant industry: high-quality and affordable offerings, automation and smart technology, and a focus on niche markets to meet diverse consumer needs [32][33] Summary by Sections Macro Perspective on Restaurant Trends - China's residents primarily rely on wage income, leading to a lower consumption tendency compared to developed countries [9][13] - The overall consumption inclination is affected by significant income inequality, with the top 1% of the population holding a substantial share of wealth [13][15] - The restaurant industry's revenue growth is expected to slow down significantly by 2025, with a notable decline in average spending per customer [15][17] Population Dynamics - China's total population has entered a phase of negative growth, with a significant concentration of young people in economically vibrant cities [18][20] - The labor force participation rate is declining, while the dependency ratio is increasing, indicating demographic challenges for the industry [20][23] Opportunities in the Restaurant Sector - The report draws parallels with Japan's consumption evolution, suggesting that China's restaurant industry can learn from Japan's experiences [31] - The three identified paths for growth include offering high-quality products at lower prices, leveraging automation, and focusing on specific consumer segments such as single-person households and the elderly [32][33] Restaurant Supply Chain Insights - The restaurant supply chain is complex, involving multiple stages from raw material procurement to end-user sales [33] - The market for restaurant supply chains is projected to grow, with an expected market size of 2.6 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year increase [35][36] Market Structure and Competition - The restaurant market is characterized by high closure rates and a fragmented landscape, with many small-scale chains dominating the market [37][38] - The supply side is marked by a lack of concentration, leading to weak bargaining power for suppliers [38] Labor Market Challenges - The restaurant industry faces rising labor costs and high turnover rates, with significant implications for operational efficiency [43][46] - The introduction of smart devices and semi-finished products is seen as a strategy to mitigate labor challenges and enhance efficiency [46][48]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's asset value has significant room for revaluation, with the stock market expected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, driven by the transition from old to new economic drivers and the increasing share of the tertiary industry [6] - The report highlights that the liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive for the stock market in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts in China and a narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US [7] - The report anticipates a turning point in corporate earnings and valuations in the A-share market, with a projected profit growth rate of around 12% in 2026 [8] Economic News - The report notes that retail sales in various sectors, including home appliances and tourism, have shown significant year-on-year growth, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The People's Bank of China has announced measures to enhance offshore RMB liquidity, which may positively impact market confidence and investment [2] - The report mentions that foreign direct investment in China has increased, particularly in high-tech industries, reflecting a positive trend in attracting foreign capital [2] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the ongoing transformation of China's manufacturing sector, with a shift towards high-value-added services and technology-driven industries, which is expected to enhance the profitability of Chinese assets [6] - The report highlights the expected growth in the lithium industry, driven by the demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% for lithium demand from 2024 to 2027 [21] - The report indicates that the rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, which may lead to price increases and improved profitability for related companies [17][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for 2026, including Torch Electronics, which is expected to benefit from improving industry conditions, and Guoli Electronics, which has a strong position in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [13] - Other recommended companies include Huace Navigation, which is poised to benefit from the Beidou satellite system, and Kingsoft Office, which is expected to see growth in its software business [13][14] - The report also highlights the potential of companies in the lithium and rare earth sectors, such as Zhongmin Resources and Jinyang Salt, due to the anticipated growth in demand for these materials [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][11]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][11][15]. - The report highlights a diversified performance across sub-sectors, with beverages outperforming food and liquor categories [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a cumulative decline of 1.37% this week, with A-shares down 1.57% and H-shares up 1.21% [1]. - Key performers included companies like Hao Xiang Ni and Wei Zhi Xiang, with significant weekly gains [1]. 2. Sub-sector Insights - **Liquor**: - Moutai's price remains stable with an upward trend, and the focus is on sales momentum during the Spring Festival. Recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [2][11]. - **Beverages**: - The dairy segment is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a focus on leading companies like Yili. Recommendations include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage [2][15]. - **Snacks**: - The report emphasizes strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly in konjac products, with companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong innovation [2][13]. - **Catering Supply Chain**: - The sector is entering a peak season for inventory and sales, with new standards for prepared dishes being solicited for public opinion [2][14]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on four main lines for investment: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven companies, and potential recovery in the liquor sector [3][11]. - Recommended stocks include Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Weidong, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have shown resilience and growth potential [17][19]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Key companies are projected to maintain strong earnings growth, with Moutai expected to achieve a stable performance and Yili showing significant recovery potential [4][15][19]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, particularly on premium brands like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also highlighting the potential of other brands such as Wuliangye and Jinjing Wine [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, but a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in Q3 [2][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the liquor sector by the end of 2026 and into 2027, driven by improved fundamentals and valuation [2][7]. - The consumer goods sector is showing structural improvements, with competition shifting from price to quality, leading to a gradual balance in supply and demand [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.41% last week, with liquor down 2.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.25 percentage points [6]. - Notable stock performances included a 19.59% increase for Haoxiangni and a 14.32% rise for Wancheng Group [6]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report highlights the price stability of Moutai, with a current price of 1560 RMB per bottle, up 20 RMB from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in pricing [8][27]. - The report notes that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks significantly, and anticipates a potential increase in sales volume as the Spring Festival approaches [8]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - The report mentions the upcoming IPO of Mingming Hen Mang, a leading snack retail chain, which is expected to catalyze the snack sector [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and digitalization in enhancing competitive advantages for companies like Mingming Hen Mang [10]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is currently at 19.27x, with a premium rate of 10%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 17.50x, indicating a zero premium [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]