Investment Rating - The report rates multiple companies in the consumer staples sector as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - The consumer staples industry in January 2026 shows a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different segments [3][29]. - Among the eight key consumer industries tracked, four are experiencing positive growth (condiments, frozen food, soft drinks, and catering), while four are facing declines (high-end and above Baijiu, mass-market Baijiu, dairy products, and beer) [29]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (High-end and Above) - In January, the revenue for high-end Baijiu reached 47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.0%. The price pressure is significant, with expectations of over a 10% price drop throughout the year due to high inventory levels [11]. Baijiu (Mass-market and Below) - The mass-market Baijiu segment generated 22.9 billion yuan in January, down 3.0% year-on-year. Despite the decline, the segment shows resilience due to rigid demand and adaptability to consumption scenarios [13]. Beer - The beer industry reported revenues of 17 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year. The demand was affected by adverse weather and the delayed Spring Festival, leading to a cautious inventory approach by distributors [15]. Condiments - The condiment sector achieved revenues of 46.9 billion yuan in January, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The recovery in the catering channel and increased demand from small and medium-sized businesses are key drivers [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector's revenue was 43.5 billion yuan in January, down 3.3% year-on-year. The demand remains under pressure, but a potential recovery is anticipated in the coming months due to low base effects [19]. Frozen Food - The frozen food segment saw revenues of 14.99 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. The demand is supported by pre-Spring Festival stocking and favorable weather conditions [21]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry generated 96.2 billion yuan in January, with a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year. Increased promotional activities indicate heightened market competition [24]. Catering - The catering sector reported revenues of 16.2 billion yuan in January, up 2.5% year-on-year. The demand is gradually improving, particularly in small and medium-sized restaurants [26].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.56%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.44%, and the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 0.08% [1][17] - The liquor segment, particularly baijiu, showed a strong performance with a 3.86% increase, driven by positive sales dynamics for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai, which saw its batch price rise to 1700 yuan [2][11] - The overall performance of the consumer goods sector was weaker, with declines in most categories except for meat products, which increased by 0.52% [1][17] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector's performance from January 26 to January 30 showed a 1.56% increase, with specific categories like baijiu increasing by 3.86% and snacks decreasing by 6.07% [1][17] Weekly Perspective Update - The baijiu sector is gaining attention, with Guizhou Moutai's sales performing well. The sector's strong performance is attributed to favorable market conditions and improved sales dynamics [2][11] - The consumer goods sector, excluding meat products, showed a decline, with specific stocks like Li Ziyuan increasing by 16.0% while others like Hao Xiang Ni decreased significantly [2][12] Sector Investment Recommendations - For the baijiu sector, the report recommends focusing on leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, anticipating strong sales during the Spring Festival [3] - In the consumer goods sector, the report emphasizes the importance of the Spring Festival stocking season, recommending companies like East Peak, Wei Long, and New Dairy for potential growth [3][12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor and food sectors, particularly highlighting the potential for growth during the upcoming Spring Festival season [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of the Spring Festival peak season for liquor sales, with leading brands like Moutai showing significant improvements in sales and pricing, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and expectations [1][2]. - In the food sector, there is an anticipated boost in demand due to pre-holiday stocking, with specific focus on snack foods and beverages as key growth areas [1][2]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report indicates that the liquor market is entering a peak season, with Moutai leading the way in sales and price recovery, driven by increased demand and channel reforms [2]. - Other notable brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Ancient Well, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for short-term investment due to their strong performance and market positioning [1]. Food Sector - The food sector is expected to benefit from pre-holiday stocking, with companies like Anjuke and Qiaqia Foods positioned to capitalize on the festive demand [2][4]. - Anjuke is focusing on new product launches and expanding into overseas markets, while Qiaqia Foods is set to improve profitability in 2026 due to lower raw material costs [4][3]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies growth opportunities in the snack and beverage segments, with specific companies such as H&H International Holdings and Nongfu Spring highlighted for their potential [1][2]. - The emphasis is placed on the recovery of the restaurant and dairy sectors, with companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer expected to show positive performance [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The pre-prepared food industry, once seen as a "trillion-dollar blue ocean," is now facing significant public skepticism and declining consumer interest, leading companies like Anjijia to shift their strategic focus amid increasing competition and market challenges [3][12][16]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of "refusing pre-prepared food" has gained traction on social media, with consumers preferring freshly cooked meals over convenience, impacting the demand for pre-prepared food [4][13]. - Anjijia's pre-prepared food segment reported revenue of 3.643 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 9.19% year-on-year increase, but this growth is significantly slower compared to the 112.41% increase in 2021 [4][16]. - The overall market for pre-prepared food is experiencing a decline, with traditional frozen food categories like frozen prepared foods and frozen noodles showing minimal growth or decline [4][24]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment for pre-prepared food is intensifying, with over 13,000 new companies entering the market within the past year, leading to price wars and reduced profit margins [16][25]. - Anjijia's average selling price for frozen food products decreased from 20.7 yuan/kg in the first three quarters of 2023 to 17.9 yuan/kg in 2024, indicating a downward pricing trend [27]. - Major restaurant chains are increasingly adopting "freshly cooked" and "non-prepared" strategies to enhance their competitive edge, further challenging the pre-prepared food market [14][23]. Group 3: Company Strategy - Anjijia is diversifying its strategy by entering the frozen baking market, with plans to invest in a new baking project, reflecting a shift in focus from traditional frozen food to new product categories [34][36]. - The frozen baking market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 25%, with an expected market size of 23 billion yuan by 2025, presenting new opportunities for Anjijia [36]. - Despite the potential for growth in the frozen baking sector, Anjijia faces challenges related to consumer preferences for taste and freshness, which differ from traditional frozen food expectations [38].

Market Overview - On January 30, the food processing sector declined by 0.68%, with *ST Chuntian leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the food processing sector included: - Baba Foods (605338) with a closing price of 31.30, up 3.16% [1] - Chunxue Foods (605567) at 11.75, up 2.00% [1] - Weizhi Xiang (6805609) at 29.88, up 1.81% [1] - Major decliners included: - *ST Chuntian (600381) at 3.51, down 4.88% [2] - Gaisi Foods (920826) at 13.54, down 3.63% [2] - Tangchen Beijian (300146) at 12.17, down 2.48% [2] Capital Flow - The food processing sector experienced a net outflow of 57.72 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 46.55 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 104 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - Huadong Shares (002840) with a net outflow of 9.89 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Chunxue Foods (605567) saw a net inflow of 7.02 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Qianwei Yangchu (001215) had a net inflow of 6.95 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

格隆汇1月29日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年1月27日，安井食品(02648.HK)获Schroders PLC在场内以每股均价75.285港元增持14.05万股，涉 资约1057.75万港元。 | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 買入 / 費出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的日 相關法 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期 | 原因 | 股份數目 | | （請參関上述 * 註 | | | | | | | 份自分比 年) | | | | | | | (%) | | CS20260129E00113 | Schroders PLC 140,500(L | 1101(L) | | HKD 75.2850 | 2.487.000(L) 6.22(L)27/01/2026 | | 股份代號: | 02648 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 安井食品集團股份有限公司 - H股 | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | 29/12/2025 - 29/0 ...

Group 1 - The food processing sector increased by 1.22% on January 29, with Sanquan Foods leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] - Key stocks in the food processing sector showed significant price increases, with Sanquan Foods rising by 4.19% to a closing price of 11.93 [1] Group 2 - The food processing sector experienced a net inflow of 1.09 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 5457.21 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Anjuke Foods and Sanquan Foods had substantial net inflows from institutional investors, with Anjuke Foods receiving 57.76 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a negative trend, with significant outflows from stocks such as Sanquan Foods and Guangming Meat Industry [3]

Group 1: Company Overview - Anjiu Food Group Co., Ltd. is located in Xiamen, Fujian Province, and was established on December 24, 2001, with its listing date on February 22, 2017 [2] - The company primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of frozen food, including products such as fish tofu, fish balls, and various frozen dishes [2] - The revenue composition of Anjiu Food includes 49.43% from frozen prepared foods, 31.77% from frozen dishes, 16.32% from frozen noodle and rice products, and 2.38% from agricultural products and others [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Anjiu Food achieved an operating income of 11.371 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.66%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.35% to 949 million yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.219 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.521 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder and Market Activity - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Anjiu Food increased to 63,200, up by 78.56%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 43.98% to 4,641 shares [2] - On January 27, 2023, Anjiu Food's stock price fell by 1.98%, with a trading volume of 324 million yuan, and the net financing buy was -446,400 yuan [1] - The financing balance for Anjiu Food was 396 million yuan, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating market value, which is below the 30% percentile level over the past year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The restaurant industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with a shift towards efficiency in operations and a focus on customized meal supply [6][32] - The report identifies three potential development paths for the restaurant industry: high-quality and affordable offerings, automation and smart technology, and a focus on niche markets to meet diverse consumer needs [32][33] Summary by Sections Macro Perspective on Restaurant Trends - China's residents primarily rely on wage income, leading to a lower consumption tendency compared to developed countries [9][13] - The overall consumption inclination is affected by significant income inequality, with the top 1% of the population holding a substantial share of wealth [13][15] - The restaurant industry's revenue growth is expected to slow down significantly by 2025, with a notable decline in average spending per customer [15][17] Population Dynamics - China's total population has entered a phase of negative growth, with a significant concentration of young people in economically vibrant cities [18][20] - The labor force participation rate is declining, while the dependency ratio is increasing, indicating demographic challenges for the industry [20][23] Opportunities in the Restaurant Sector - The report draws parallels with Japan's consumption evolution, suggesting that China's restaurant industry can learn from Japan's experiences [31] - The three identified paths for growth include offering high-quality products at lower prices, leveraging automation, and focusing on specific consumer segments such as single-person households and the elderly [32][33] Restaurant Supply Chain Insights - The restaurant supply chain is complex, involving multiple stages from raw material procurement to end-user sales [33] - The market for restaurant supply chains is projected to grow, with an expected market size of 2.6 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year increase [35][36] Market Structure and Competition - The restaurant market is characterized by high closure rates and a fragmented landscape, with many small-scale chains dominating the market [37][38] - The supply side is marked by a lack of concentration, leading to weak bargaining power for suppliers [38] Labor Market Challenges - The restaurant industry faces rising labor costs and high turnover rates, with significant implications for operational efficiency [43][46] - The introduction of smart devices and semi-finished products is seen as a strategy to mitigate labor challenges and enhance efficiency [46][48]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's asset value has significant room for revaluation, with the stock market expected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, driven by the transition from old to new economic drivers and the increasing share of the tertiary industry [6] - The report highlights that the liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive for the stock market in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts in China and a narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US [7] - The report anticipates a turning point in corporate earnings and valuations in the A-share market, with a projected profit growth rate of around 12% in 2026 [8] Economic News - The report notes that retail sales in various sectors, including home appliances and tourism, have shown significant year-on-year growth, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The People's Bank of China has announced measures to enhance offshore RMB liquidity, which may positively impact market confidence and investment [2] - The report mentions that foreign direct investment in China has increased, particularly in high-tech industries, reflecting a positive trend in attracting foreign capital [2] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the ongoing transformation of China's manufacturing sector, with a shift towards high-value-added services and technology-driven industries, which is expected to enhance the profitability of Chinese assets [6] - The report highlights the expected growth in the lithium industry, driven by the demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% for lithium demand from 2024 to 2027 [21] - The report indicates that the rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, which may lead to price increases and improved profitability for related companies [17][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for 2026, including Torch Electronics, which is expected to benefit from improving industry conditions, and Guoli Electronics, which has a strong position in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [13] - Other recommended companies include Huace Navigation, which is poised to benefit from the Beidou satellite system, and Kingsoft Office, which is expected to see growth in its software business [13][14] - The report also highlights the potential of companies in the lithium and rare earth sectors, such as Zhongmin Resources and Jinyang Salt, due to the anticipated growth in demand for these materials [20][21]