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华源证券:重视ROA企稳的消费板块 寻找价或量仍景气的细分赛道
智通财经网· 2025-12-24 13:01
Core Viewpoint - Different consumer sectors exhibit both differences and commonalities in recovery rhythms, with ROA being a leading indicator for operational recovery in consumer enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Recovery Rhythm Analysis - The recovery rhythm of various consumer sectors is influenced by industry supply and demand, as well as supply chain structures, with a focus on stock market competition as a mainstream phenomenon [2] - The stages of enterprise and channel adjustments are outlined, starting from oversupply to a new balance in supply and demand, with ROA serving as a key indicator throughout these stages [2] - Current recovery sequences indicate that soft drinks and snacks are leading, followed by food supply chains, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Emphasis on sectors where ROA stabilizes, indicating potential valuation recovery opportunities, with a preference for sectors that still show price or volume growth [3] - Price logic suggests that rising CPI may drive valuation recovery in traditional industries with high penetration rates, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, which are likely to attract incremental capital [3][4] - Recommended companies in the liquor sector include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while in dairy, focus on Yili and Mengniu [3] Group 3: Volume Logic - In the context of cost-effective consumption, companies with high supply chain efficiency are expected to gain volume, with specific recommendations for companies in the food supply chain and soft drinks [4] - Industries with low penetration rates may withstand economic cycles, with recommendations for low-alcohol beverages and functional foods that can enhance brand premium through specialization [4] - Companies benefiting from overseas market expansion include Angel Yeast and Bailong Chuangyuan [4]
扩内需:食品饮料行业投资机会
2025-12-24 12:57
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is experiencing systemic opportunities driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and increasing residents' income levels, which are expected to enhance consumption capabilities [1][2] - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with expectations of entering an EPS killing phase by 2025, while high-end liquor brands like Moutai and Lao Jiao are recommended for investment [1][4] - The dairy industry has completed supply-demand adjustments, with anticipated increases in demand for milk powder and liquid milk due to fertility and income policies, highlighting companies like Yili and New Dairy as potential recovery opportunities [1][5] - The snack food sector is benefiting from the "lipstick effect," new channels, and health trends, with recommendations for companies such as Salted Fish, Wei Long, Wan Chen Food, and Qiaqia Food [1][6] - The beverage sector is seeing a clear trend towards health, with non-traditional channels gaining market share, making high-growth companies like Dongpeng Beverage noteworthy [1][7] Key Insights and Arguments - The central economic work conference in 2026 will prioritize expanding domestic demand, which is expected to lead to a series of policies stimulating consumption, positively impacting the food and beverage industry [2] - The food and beverage sector has faced significant changes in volume, price, and channel structure over the past six years, with varying performances across sub-sectors [3] - The liquor sector is expected to see marginal improvements in 2026, driven by policies aimed at boosting business and government consumption [4] - The dairy sector is projected to enter a recovery phase, with increased demand anticipated due to supportive policies [5] - The snack food market is expected to gradually recover, supported by rising incomes and new retail channels [6] Additional Important Content - Cost fluctuations are a significant factor affecting the performance of consumer goods companies, with some agricultural product costs declining, providing investment opportunities [9] - The planting area for sunflower seeds is expected to recover, leading to a projected 10% decrease in the cost of sunflower seeds, which will positively impact Qiaqia Food's gross margin [10][11] - The konjac market is facing supply-demand imbalances, with high prices expected to ease in 2026, alleviating cost pressures for companies like Wei Long and Salted Fish [12] - The sugar molasses market is currently at low prices, providing strong support for Angel Yeast's profitability [13] - Innovative companies are leveraging product and channel innovations to drive growth, with notable examples including Nongfu Spring and Uni-President [14] - Efficient supply chain management is crucial for companies, with Dongpeng Beverage demonstrating strong performance in this area [15] Future Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2026 through strategic measures and product innovations [16] - Wan Chen is enhancing store quality and accelerating store openings, which is expected to improve profitability in the snack food sector [17][18] - Hai Tian Flavoring has implemented efficiency improvements under new management, resulting in revenue and profit growth exceeding industry averages [19] - The restaurant industry is expected to see a mild recovery, with companies like Yihai International and Tianhe Flavoring showing potential for improvement [20][21] - In the liquor sector, companies like Yanghe and Budweiser are expected to benefit from product and channel improvements, leading to potential breakthroughs in performance [22][23][25] - Gan Yuan Food is focusing on expanding e-commerce and high-end membership stores, with a stable development outlook [26][27] - Overall, companies in the food and beverage sector are expected to experience gradual recovery and growth, making them worthy of investor attention [28]
食品饮料2026年投资策略报告:曙光渐显,在分化中前行-20251224
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-12-24 12:13
Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery stage of consumer spending, highlighting that different sectors exhibit both commonalities and differences in their recovery rhythms, driven by supply-demand dynamics and industry structure [4][5] - ROA (Return on Assets) is identified as a leading indicator for the operational recovery of consumer companies, with a focus on analyzing various sub-sectors [4][13] Group 2: Sector Performance - The current recovery sequence indicates that soft drinks and snacks are leading, followed by the catering supply chain, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [5][25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's 1990s consumption differentiation, noting that sectors addressing consumer pain points and with low penetration rates are likely to succeed [5][6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors where ROA is stabilizing, indicating potential valuation recovery opportunities, particularly in traditional sectors like liquor, beer, and dairy [6][8] - It recommends identifying sub-sectors with either price or volume growth, with a preference for price-driven strategies [6][8] Group 4: Detailed Sector Analysis - The frozen food sector is showing signs of marginal improvement, with leading companies enhancing operational efficiency through product innovation and channel reforms [27][28] - The snack sector is experiencing high demand, driven by new channel developments, although competition is intensifying [33][35] - The beer industry is under pressure, with a focus on high-end products, but overall growth is slowing due to external economic factors [39][41] - The dairy sector is nearing the end of its adjustment phase, with expectations of improved performance as raw milk prices rise [41][42] - The liquor sector is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with performance risks gradually clearing as channels stabilize [43][48]
安井食品完成工商变更、备案并换发营业执照
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-24 11:07
格隆汇12月24日丨安井食品(02648.HK)公告,为落实《中华人民共和国公司法(2023年修订)》、中国证 监会《关于新公司法配套制度规则实施相关过渡期安排》的相关工作要求,公司已取消监事会,由公司 董事会审计委员会行使《公司法》规定的监事会职权。公司已于近日完成工商变更、备案登记手续,并 取得厦门市市场监督管理局换发的《营业执照》。 ...
安井食品(02648.HK)完成工商变更、备案并换发营业执照
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-24 10:50
格隆汇12月24日丨安井食品(02648.HK)公告,为落实《中华人民共和国公司法(2023年修订)》、中国证 监会《关于新公司法配套制度规则实施相关过渡期安排》的相关工作要求,公司已取消监事会,由公司 董事会审计委员会行使《公司法》规定的监事会职权。公司已于近日完成工商变更、备案登记手续,并 取得厦门市市场监督管理局换发的《营业执照》。 ...
安井食品(603345) - 安井食品关于完成工商变更、备案并换发营业执照的公告
2025-12-24 10:00
为落实《中华人民共和国公司法(2023 年修订)》、中国证监会《关于新 公司法配套制度规则实施相关过渡期安排》的相关工作要求,公司已取消监事 会,由公司董事会审计委员会行使《公司法》规定的监事会职权。 公司已于近日完成工商变更、备案登记手续,并取得厦门市市场监督管理 局换发的《营业执照》,相关信息如下: 证券代码:603345 证券简称:安井食品 公告编号:临 2025-078 安井食品集团股份有限公司 关于完成工商变更、备案并换发营业执照的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 安井食品集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")于 2025 年 8 月 1 日、 2025 年 11 月 10 日、2025 年 11 月 28 日分别召开第五届董事会第二十次会议、 第五届董事会第二十四次会议及 2025 年第一次临时股东会,审议通过了《关于 变更公司注册资本及修订<公司章程>的议案》《关于取消监事会及修订<公司 章程>的议案》。公司因在香港联合交易所有限公司主板上市并发行了 39,994,700 股 H 股股份,总股本 ...
研报掘金丨华西证券:安井食品龙头优势稳固,维持“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-24 06:14
格隆汇12月24日|华西证券研报指出,安井食品业绩已现拐点,景气度持续回升。公司作为速冻食品行 业龙头,依托多元化创新和渠道结构升级,成功穿越行业周期,展现出极强的增长与盈利恢复动能。公 司业绩已现拐点,经营持续修复,25Q3单季营收同比提升6.6%,归母净利润增速回正达到11.8%,毛利 率同比提升,盈利能力边际改善显著,叠加Q4旺季餐饮复苏、渠道补货顺畅及新品发力,业绩有望延 续好转态势。公司从"渠道驱动"转向"新品驱动"为主,形成锁鲜装、虾滑、烤肠为核心的大单品群,通 过核心单品迭代、品类结构优化突破行业内卷,提升盈利能力,同时冷冻烘焙、清真食品等战略新业务 蓄势待发。另外,公司在"BC兼顾,全渠发力"的渠道战略推动下,形成了以经销商为基本盘,特通、 商超、新零售及电商协同发展的全矩阵布局,有效分散风险并驱动增长。行业竞争趋缓,龙头优势稳 固,维持"买入"评级。 ...
安井食品20251222
2025-12-22 15:47
安井食品 20251222 安井食品四季度业绩超预期,截至 12 月 22 日仍保持 10%的增长率, 尽管去年同期基数较高。政府补助对公司整体影响不大,因全国多基地 运营增加获得补贴和税收返还的概率。 公司战略从渠道驱动转向产品驱动,今年推出多款新品,多数达到或超 出预期。海外市场方面,东南亚速冻食品市场增长迅速,但 CR5 占比低, 存在巨大机会,公司计划通过并购当地品牌拓展欧美市场。 公司近期申请河南工厂,以清真食品为目标,瞄准西北市场和东南亚市 场。已购买"安斋"商标,计划将其打造成专门的清真食品品牌,并将 在马来西亚、印尼等地申请清真认证。 速冻食品行业正从充分竞争转向垄断竞争,安井食品销售增长和利润表 现优于同行。公司面临的主要挑战是持续创新,今年从渠道驱动转向新 品驱动,并叠加渠道驱动,希望新品能成为爆品。 今年推出 35 至 40 款新品,如活鱼现杀嫩鱼丸、多多多烤肠、嵊州小笼 包等。烤肠板块增长超过 60%,虾滑类产品增速最高,预计营收超 10 亿。明年将加大研发投入和激励机制,提高新品命中率。 Q&A 请介绍一下公司近期的经营动态和市场表现。 今年四季度对我们来说是一个利润高基数和收入不低 ...
安井食品(603345) - 中信建投证券股份有限公司关于安井食品集团股份有限公司非公开发行股票部分募投项目增加实施主体的核查意见
2025-12-22 10:46
中信建投证券股份有限公司 关于安井食品集团股份有限公司 非公开发行股票部分募投项目增加实施主体的核查意见 中信建投证券股份有限公司(以下简称"中信建投证券"或"保荐人")作 为安井食品集团股份有限公司(以下简称"安井食品"或"公司")的保荐人, 根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》《上市公司募集资金监管规则》《上海证 券交易所股票上市规则》和《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号—— 规范运作》等有关规定,对安井食品本次非公开发行股票部分募投项目增加实施 主体的事项进行了审慎核查,核查情况如下: 截至 2025 年 12 月 15 日,"2022 年非公开发行股票"募集资金投资项目及 募集资金使用情况如下: 单位:万元 1 | 项目名称 | 投资总额 | 募集资金拟 | 募集资金累 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 投入金额 | 计投入金额 | | 广东安井年产 13.3 万吨速冻食品新建项目 | 71,600.00 | 55,600.00 | 57,244.39 | | 山东安井年产 万吨速冻食品新建项目 20 | 105,400.00 | 60,400.00 | ...
安井食品(603345) - 安井食品关于非公开发行股票部分募投项目增加实施主体的公告
2025-12-22 10:45
证券代码:603345 证券简称:安井食品 公告编号:临 2025-077 安井食品集团股份有限公司 关于非公开发行股票部分募投项目增加实施主体的公告 二、 募投项目基本情况 截至 2025 年 12 月 15 日,"2022 年非公开发行股票"募集资金投资项目及募 集资金使用情况如下: | 项目名称 | 投资总额 | 募集资金拟 | 募集资金累 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 投入金额 | 计投入金额 | | 广东安井年产 万吨速冻食品新建项目 13.3 | 71,600.00 | 55,600.00 | 57,244.39 | | 山东安井年产 万吨速冻食品新建项目 20 | 105,400.00 | 60,400.00 | 64,312.05 | | 河南三期年产 14 万吨速冻食品扩建项目 | 73,000.00 | 54,959.00 | 43,572.82 | | 泰州三期年产 万吨速冻食品扩建项目 10 | 52,000.00 | 52,000.00 | 27,030.67 | | 辽宁三期年产 14 万吨速冻食品扩建项目 | 72,800.00 | 1,87 ...