（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，安井食品(02648.HK)盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.12%，报76港元，成交额5800.53万港 元。 ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，餐饮等服务业对CPI回升较敏感、有望率先受益，同时餐供行业竞争触底， 格局或逐步优化。该行认为龙头回收促销对行业格局改善的信号意义积极，供需改善预期下关注板块复 苏机会。 安井食品（603345）(02648)盘中涨超6%，截至发稿，涨5.12%，报76港元，成交额5800.53万港元。 消息面上，1月8日，安井食品在投资者互动平台回答投资者提问称，公司会根据市场动销状况、原材料 成本变化及行业竞争态势等综合因素定价并灵活调整。近期有对部分产品的促销政策进行适度回收。 ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，餐饮等服务业对CPI回升较敏感、有望率先受益，同时餐供行业竞争触底， 格局或逐步优化。该行认为龙头回收促销对行业格局改善的信号意义积极，供需改善预期下关注板块复 苏机会。 智通财经APP获悉，安井食品(02648)盘中涨超6%，截至发稿，涨5.12%，报76港元，成交额5800.53万 港元。 消息面上，1月8日，安井食品在投资者互动平台回答投资者提问称，公司会根据市场动销状况、原材料 成本变化及行业竞争态势等综合因素定价并灵活调整。近期有对部分产品的促销政策进行适度回收。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Anjuke Foods has seen a stock price increase of 5.32%, reaching 89.15 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 29.713 billion yuan as of January 19 [1] - Anjuke Foods, established on December 24, 2001, and listed on February 22, 2017, specializes in the research, production, and sales of frozen foods, including products like fish tofu, fish balls, and various frozen dishes [1] - The company's revenue composition includes 49.43% from frozen prepared foods, 31.77% from frozen dishes, 16.32% from frozen noodle and rice products, and 2.38% from agricultural products and others [1] Group 2 - According to data, one fund under Jiashi Fund holds a significant position in Anjuke Foods, with Jiashi New Consumption Stock A reducing its holdings by 241,900 shares, now holding 1,204,900 shares, which accounts for 5.66% of the fund's net value [2] - Jiashi New Consumption Stock A has a total scale of 1.478 billion yuan and has experienced a loss of 0.08% this year, ranking 5111 out of 5579 in its category [2] - The fund manager of Jiashi New Consumption Stock A, Tan Li, has been in position for 8 years and 286 days, with the best fund return during this period being 146.21% [3]

消息面上，花旗发布研报指出，预测受到新产品及渠道优势驱动，安井食品2025年第四季核心业务销售 表现将改善，预期管理层将公布的2026年销售目标不会低于2025年的双位数增长。将安井食品2025至 2027年的净利润预测上调1%至14%，目标价从75.7港元上调至90港元，相当于2026年预测市盈率约18 倍，并维持"买入"评级。 高盛指出，展望2026年，管理层对今年1月表现更为乐观，基于基数较低、农历新年前补库存以及天气 条件更有利;预期主营业务收入在2026年将实现双位数增长。盈利方面，管理层强调近期原材料成本未 见重大变化，在规模经济效应、定价能力更具韧性及原材料价格稳定下，可望维持稳健的净利润率水 平。 安井食品（603345）(02684)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.9%，报74.4港元，成交额1921.34万港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Anjuke Foods (02684) is expected to see improved core business sales performance driven by new products and channel advantages, with management likely to announce a sales target for 2026 that will not be lower than double-digit growth compared to 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - Citigroup has raised its net profit forecast for Anjuke Foods for 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 14%, and increased the target price from 75.7 HKD to 90 HKD, which corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 18 times for 2026 [1] - Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the management's outlook for January 2026, citing a low base, inventory replenishment before the Lunar New Year, and favorable weather conditions, expecting double-digit growth in main business revenue for 2026 [1] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - Management emphasized that there have been no significant changes in raw material costs recently, and with economies of scale, resilient pricing power, and stable raw material prices, the company is expected to maintain a robust net profit margin [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Baijiu (Chinese liquor) and Soft Drinks - **Key Insights**: The Baijiu industry is nearing a bottom in terms of valuation, expectations, and holdings, with a potential turning point expected in Q3 2026. The soft drink market is showing strong performance from leading companies, with expectations for revenue growth above the industry average in 2026 [1][9]. Baijiu Industry Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The overall sentiment for Baijiu sales during the Spring Festival is cautious, with expectations of a year-on-year decline potentially reaching double digits. However, Moutai's significant price reduction may stimulate sales during low-frequency consumption scenarios [2][8]. - **Company Strategies**: - **Moutai**: Plans to stabilize overall product supply while adjusting the product mix to increase the availability of premium Moutai and 500ml Flying Moutai. This strategic shift is expected to have a profound impact on pricing and growth logic [4]. - **Luzhou Laojiao**: Focuses on maintaining stable apparent prices and ensuring stability in pricing, channels, and organizational structure to provide growth momentum during the recovery phase [5]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Moutai, Fenjiu, and local brands like Gujing Gongjiu are recommended for their market share logic, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are noted for their dividend security [1][8]. Soft Drink Market Insights - **Market Performance**: Leading companies in the soft drink sector are expected to maintain revenue growth above the industry average in 2026. Notable performers include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink, while Master Kong and Uni-President are seen as stable defensive investments [9][10]. - **Current Trends**: The market is experiencing significant competition, but leading companies are expected to leverage their channel and product advantages to maintain robust performance [9]. Tea Beverage Market - **Key Players**: Companies like Guming and Shanghai Auntie are rapidly expanding, with Guming planning to promote breakfast scenarios and Shanghai Auntie introducing coffee and health products. Both companies express confidence in same-store sales for 2026 [11]. Dairy Industry Insights - **Market Condition**: The dairy sector is currently experiencing weak demand but is expected to see a recovery in 2026. Companies like Yili, Mengniu, and New Dairy are recommended due to their stable fundamentals and growth potential [3][12][13]. Frozen Food Industry Insights - **Market Outlook**: The frozen food sector is showing positive prospects for 2026, with strong winter stocking and improved confidence among distributors. Companies like Anjijia, Qianwei Yangchun, and Sanquan Foods are optimistic about their outlook [14][15]. Seasonality and Consumer Behavior - **Consumer Trends**: The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to influence consumer behavior significantly, with increased stocking efforts noted across various sectors, including snacks and frozen foods. Companies are adjusting their strategies to meet this seasonal demand [17][18]. Recommendations for Investment - **Baijiu**: Focus on companies with strong market share logic and dividend security, such as Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [8]. - **Soft Drinks**: Invest in leading brands like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng, which are expected to outperform the market [9][10]. - **Dairy and Frozen Foods**: Look for opportunities in Yili, Mengniu, and Anjijia, which are positioned for growth in the recovering market [12][14]. Conclusion - The Baijiu industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for recovery in 2026, while the soft drink and dairy sectors are showing resilience and growth potential. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and strategic positioning to capitalize on upcoming market opportunities [6][9][12].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, consistent with previous ratings, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4] - The report highlights the cautious inventory management in the liquor market, particularly in Henan, with the upcoming Spring Festival sales performance still uncertain [17][19] - The demand for frozen food in Henan is showing signs of improvement as preparations for the Spring Festival begin, with increased confidence among distributors [22] - In Shanghai, the "锅圈" (Guoquan) stores are undergoing significant renovations, leading to a notable increase in daily sales post-renovation [25][27] Weekly Focus: Henan & Shanghai Market Tracking - **Henan Liquor Market**: Inventory levels are low, and major brands like Moutai are seeing stable pricing, with the Spring Festival sales performance yet to be observed [17][19] - **Henan Food Supply Market**: Distributors are beginning to stock up for the Spring Festival, with a slight uptick in demand noted [22] - **Shanghai Guoquan Store Renovations**: The store renovations have led to a significant increase in daily sales, with new product categories contributing to revenue growth [25][27] Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.1% in the week of January 12-16, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [29] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector stands at a PE-TTM of 21.2X, with the white liquor sector at 18.3X, indicating a relative valuation compared to the broader market [43][46] Recent Key Announcements & News - The report includes updates on major companies like Qianwei Culinary and Sanquan Foods, highlighting their strategic adjustments and product innovations aimed at enhancing competitiveness [23][24] - The report notes that the industry is moving away from price wars towards a focus on product innovation and quality assurance [24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Moutai, as well as consumer goods companies like Anjuke Foods and Tianwei Foods, indicating potential investment opportunities [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant supply industry is undergoing a structural transformation, shifting from "passive supporters" to "active drivers" as companies adapt to a more cautious capital expenditure environment and a less aggressive price competition landscape [1][2]. Supply Side - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, revealing opportunities for structural adjustment within the restaurant supply industry. The industry continues to grow driven by the expansion of the restaurant sector, increased chain rates, and high growth in food delivery services. However, the past few years of downturn in the downstream restaurant sector and supply surplus have accelerated industry consolidation. Leading companies are moving away from past extensive capacity expansion and distribution strategies towards efficient service for large clients and refined operations for smaller clients, focusing on quality growth through product innovation and customization [2]. Demand Side - Historical analysis shows that when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) transitions from negative to positive or enters an upward phase, market expectations for consumer recovery often lead to capital flowing into cyclical sectors like the restaurant supply chain. The CPI is expected to turn positive in October 2025, indicating a mild recovery in consumer demand, which creates a favorable macro environment for the restaurant supply sector. The performance of leading companies has shown improvement since Q3 2025, suggesting that while the industry has not entered a high-growth phase, it has passed its worst stage and is currently stabilizing, with potential for both performance and valuation recovery [3]. Valuation - The restaurant supply sector's valuation has fallen to historically low levels, and the sector remains underweight, providing a high margin of safety and emotional recovery potential. Key segments include: 1. Frozen baking: The industry is expected to maintain rapid growth with a CAGR of 22.1% from 2020 to 2025. Leading company Lihigh Foods (300973) is benefiting from new product launches and channel expansion, with significant growth potential in its frozen baking business and cream business due to domestic substitution acceleration [4]. 2. Frozen food: The price competition has significantly weakened, with leading company Anjui establishing a clear advantage over competitors in management, channels, and capacity. The company is expected to enjoy dual benefits from industry growth and market share increase due to a rich pipeline of new products in 2025 [4]. 3. Compound seasoning: The current penetration rate in China is only 25.4%, compared to over 50% in mature markets like Europe, the U.S., and Japan, indicating substantial growth potential. The long-term development of leading companies in Western-style compound seasoning, such as Baoli Foods (603170) and Chinese-style compound seasoning companies like Tianwei Foods (603317) and Richen Co. (603755) is promising [4]. Investment Recommendations - The sector is currently in a phase of low valuation and institutional holdings, with demand stabilizing and improving policy conditions. Capital expenditures have significantly decreased, and the competitive landscape is shifting from price wars to a more rational framework. Leading companies are actively pursuing new products and channels (membership supermarkets/new retail), mergers and acquisitions, and R&D initiatives, providing high certainty and elasticity. It is recommended to focus on large-cap stocks for allocation and small-cap stocks for elasticity, with particular attention to the performance improvements of Anjui Foods (603345), Lihigh Foods (300973), and Qianhe Flavor (603027), as well as the growth elasticity from new channels and category expansions of Tianwei Foods (603317), Guoquan (02517), and Qianwei Yangchu (001215) [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Anjuke Foods has shown a positive stock performance with a 10.95% increase year-to-date and significant trading activity, indicating investor interest and market confidence [1][3]. - As of January 15, Anjuke Foods' stock price reached 87.96 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 29.316 billion yuan and a trading volume of 68.64 million yuan [1]. - The company has experienced a net inflow of main funds amounting to 1.0703 million yuan, with large orders contributing significantly to both buying and selling activities [1]. Group 2 - Anjuke Foods, established on December 24, 2001, and listed on February 22, 2017, specializes in the research, production, and sales of frozen foods, including various types of fish products and ready-to-eat meals [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 49.43% from frozen prepared foods, 31.77% from frozen dishes, 16.32% from frozen noodle and rice products, and 2.38% from agricultural products and others [2]. - As of September 30, the number of shareholders increased to 63,200, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 43.98% [3]. Group 3 - Anjuke Foods has distributed a total of 3.219 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.521 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [4]. - As of September 30, 2025, the fourth largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 5.401 million shares, a decrease of 6.5391 million shares from the previous period [4].