华创证券则表示，近期跟踪到在10-11月在高基数背景下，渠道数据保持良性较快增长，动销延续Q3以 来逐月改善趋势，主要系一是今年Q3无经销商大会促销，渠道库存水平不算高；二是新品贡献，安井 受益小品牌退出，终端动销出现明显增长，部分产品出现断货；三是天气转冷旺季来临，催化速冻食品 需求。而考虑今年天气偏冷、且公司新品放量，当前销售情况向好，后续旺季春节存在进一步加速可 能。 智通财经APP获悉，安井食品(02648)盘中涨近7%，截至发稿，涨4.84%，报71.4港元，成交额4645.41万 港元。 财信证券发布研报称，从速冻板块上市公司三季报的表现来看，速冻食品行业需求端仍处于筑底企稳阶 段，但存量竞争下降价促销的效果逐步减弱，价格战随之趋缓，安井食品、三全食品等上市公司毛利率 逐步企稳。另外，随安井食品持续推进产品、渠道结构优化，以及经营提效，公司盈利能力迎来企稳改 善。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage & commercial sectors [9][56] Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with market sentiment improving, presenting a good opportunity for low-level positioning. Recent CPI recovery and consensus on destocking, along with the Double 11 shopping festival, have contributed to this trend. The Federal Reserve's dovish signals on November 21 have also created favorable conditions for the market [5][54] - Long-term prospects for leading liquor companies are promising due to their strong risk resistance and increasing market concentration, supported by domestic demand policies and recovering consumer sentiment. The industry is still in a destocking phase, with demand at a low point [5][54] - The consumer goods sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with the snack food segment remaining robust and soft drink leaders maintaining stability during the off-season. The dairy sector is approaching a supply-demand improvement point, while the restaurant industry is shifting from incremental to stock competition due to demand pressure [55] Summary by Sections Industry News - From January to October, white liquor production decreased by 11.5% [16] - The overall sentiment in the sector is improving, driven by the upcoming holiday season and promotional activities [5][54] Company News - Guizhou Moutai has initiated its annual meeting season for Moutai liquor [4] - Wuliangye is launching a new zodiac-themed product for the Year of the Horse [4] Key Company Feedback - The report highlights key companies with strong long-term investment value, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, as well as more flexible stocks like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shede Liquor [5][54][57] Core Data Trends - The cumulative production of white liquor in 2024 is projected at 4.145 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year, while industry revenue is expected to reach 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [32][33]

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Records Industry: Dairy Products - Liquid milk revenue has declined, with ambient yogurt significantly impacted by competition from tea beverages, but leading dairy companies have achieved slight growth in dairy drinks through product innovation and market expansion [1][2][3] - Solid dairy products show weak demand for cheese in the A-end, while B-end domestic alternatives are accelerating; milk powder demand is improving due to population growth [1][2] - The upstream raw milk supply is expected to reach a supply-demand balance by mid-2026, potentially leading to a rebound in milk prices, with large dairy companies benefiting from scale advantages [1][3] - Major dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu are expected to see a recovery in market share as their valuations are at a low point [3] Industry: Snack Foods - The snack food industry is experiencing slowed growth, with high raw material costs and intense competition; however, categories like konjac and bulk channels still show potential [4] - Recommended companies include Wei Long and Ximai Foods, which have advantages in multi-channel distribution and are positioned well in the konjac category [4] Industry: Seed Industry - The seed industry is anticipated to see a turnaround in the second half of 2026, with opportunities for investment in companies like Kangnong Seed, which has achieved growth through its flagship product [5] - The sales area for Kangnong's product is expected to exceed 10 million mu, indicating strong performance potential [5] Industry: Grain and Economic Crops - If grain prices rise in the second half of 2026, the industry may see improved conditions, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development showing significant earnings elasticity [6] - In the economic crop sector, companies involved in natural rubber and blueberry cultivation are highlighted for their growth potential [6] Industry: Agricultural Product Processing - The agricultural processing sector should focus on health-related investment opportunities, with companies like COFCO Sugar showing strong stock performance [7] - The tomato processing segment is showing signs of price stabilization, which could benefit companies like Guannong [7] Industry: Functional Food Ingredients - The functional food ingredients market is expected to grow significantly, driven by improvements in profitability and new product releases [8][9] Industry: Livestock and Poultry - The livestock industry is projected to bottom out and gradually recover, with recommendations for cost-leading companies like Wens Foodstuffs and DeKang Agriculture [10][12] - The pig market has seen price fluctuations, with expectations of continued pressure in early 2026 but potential recovery later in the year [11][12] Industry: Pet Food - The pet food sector has shown resilience, with domestic demand remaining strong and companies like Zhongchong and Guibao Pet Food achieving significant growth [15] Industry: Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is facing weak demand, but leading companies are gaining market share through innovation and new product development [16][20] - Companies like Hai Tian and Anjing Foods are highlighted for their strong performance despite industry challenges [21][22] Key Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies with strong growth potential in their respective sectors, such as Wei Long in snacks, Kangnong in seeds, and Anjing Foods in the restaurant supply chain [4][5][22]

Core Viewpoint - Anjuke Foods (02648) has shown a nearly 5% increase in stock price, attributed to its solid performance in the third quarter and positive market conditions for frozen food products [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Anjuke Foods reported a revenue of 11.371 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.66% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 949 million yuan [1] Market Trends - According to Zhongyin International, the company's main business revenue remained stable in Q3, with new channels performing well [1] - Huachuang Securities noted that channel data has shown healthy and rapid growth in October and November, despite high base comparisons [1] Growth Drivers - The company is driving growth through product innovation, adapting to channel changes and consumer demands [1] - Factors contributing to improved sales include the absence of a distributor conference promotion in Q3, low channel inventory levels, and the positive impact of new products [1] - The onset of colder weather is expected to boost demand for frozen food products, with potential for further acceleration during the upcoming Spring Festival [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Foods (603345) reported a steady performance in Q3, with revenue growth driven by product innovation and favorable channel dynamics, indicating potential for continued improvement in the upcoming quarters [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Anjiu Foods achieved a revenue of 11.371 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.66% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 949 million yuan [1] Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing robust growth in new channels, with Q3 showing a positive trend in sales performance [1] - Factors contributing to this growth include the absence of a promotional event in Q3, low channel inventory levels, and the successful introduction of new products [1] Seasonal Trends - The upcoming winter season is expected to boost demand for frozen food products, further enhancing sales performance [1] - The current favorable sales conditions, combined with the anticipated seasonal demand during the Spring Festival, suggest potential for accelerated growth [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the fiscal data for October shows a slight narrowing in the year-on-year growth rate of tax revenue, with consumption-related tax categories maintaining a positive contribution [2][6][7] - It is anticipated that incremental policies will be expected towards the end of this year and the beginning of next year to support economic growth [6][9] Macroeconomic Overview - In October, total public fiscal revenue reached 22,614 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with tax revenue at 20,700 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [6][7] - Non-tax revenue fell to 1,914 billion yuan, down 33.0% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline [6][7] - The domestic value-added tax contributed positively to the tax revenue growth, increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, which boosted the overall tax revenue growth by 3.0 percentage points [7] - Public fiscal expenditure in October was 17,761 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in spending [7][8] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Central government fund revenue was 342 billion yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year, while local government fund revenue was 3,414 billion yuan, down 20.4% year-on-year [8] - The income from state-owned land use rights fell by 27.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting local government fund revenue [8] - Government fund expenditure totaled 5,968 billion yuan, down 38.2% year-on-year, with local government fund expenditure declining by 40.4% [8] Economic Growth Support - The report notes that the fiscal expenditure and financing pace have been front-loaded this year, supporting economic performance, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [9] - The upcoming central economic work conference and the "Two Sessions" in the new year are expected to provide important guidance on fiscal and policy financial tools [9]

Summary of Key Points Group 1: Overall Industry Analysis - The report indicates a systemic recovery opportunity for the food and beverage industry in 2026 after a five-year adjustment period from 2021 to 2025, with key external indicators being the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a focus on cyclical attributes in the liquor and catering supply chain [4][19]. - The liquor sector is expected to see a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026, following a significant decline in sales and prices in Q3 2025, with a projected stabilization and recovery in prices as inventory clears and demand rebounds [4][7][19]. - The report emphasizes that if the fundamentals recover as anticipated, a dual boost in valuation and performance is expected by the end of 2026 and into 2027, marking a strategic allocation period for quality companies [4][7][19]. Group 2: Liquor Investment Strategy - The liquor sector has experienced a significant decline in sales, with Q3 2025 showing a 50% year-on-year drop compared to Q3 2023, and high-end liquor prices continuing to fall as the market seeks a balance between volume and price [4][7][8]. - Key recommended companies in the liquor sector include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye, with a focus on strategic positioning for quality firms as the market stabilizes [4][7][8]. - Historical performance analysis from 2012 to 2015 suggests that stock price turning points often precede fundamental turning points, indicating a potential recovery in Q3 2026 [4][7][23]. Group 3: Consumer Goods Investment Strategy - The report identifies systemic opportunities in the consumer goods sector, with CPI as a core observation indicator, predicting gradual improvement in food CPI due to structural demand changes and a shift from price competition to quality competition among companies [4][19]. - Recommended companies in the consumer goods sector include Yili Group, Qingdao Beer, Anjuke Food, and Tianwei Food, with a focus on firms that possess pricing power and are positioned for systematic recovery if CPI continues to improve [4][19]. - The report highlights that if CPI improves consistently, leading companies in various sub-sectors will also experience systematic recovery [4][19].

Core Insights - The food processing sector experienced a slight increase of 0.21% on November 17, with Huadong Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.0, down 0.11% [1] Stock Performance - Huadong Co., Ltd. (002840) closed at 11.85, up 4.68% with a trading volume of 557,400 shares and a turnover of 658 million yuan [1] - Other notable gainers included Jinzi Ham (002515) with a 3.05% increase, and Haixin Food (002702) with a 1.79% increase [1] - Conversely, stocks like Baba Food (605338) and Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215) saw declines of 3.48% and 2.53% respectively [2] Capital Flow - The food processing sector saw a net outflow of 32.6 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 3.6 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in stocks like Huadong Co., Ltd. and Haixin Food, while significant outflows were noted in stocks like Jinzi Ham and Qianwei Central Kitchen [3] Individual Stock Analysis - Huadong Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 36.5 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors showed a net outflow of 34.3 million yuan [3] - Haixin Food experienced a net inflow of 18.8 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 52.9 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Jinzi Ham saw a net inflow of 16.7 million yuan from institutional investors, with a smaller net inflow from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - Investment advice indicates a sector recovery catalyzed by recent CPI data, focusing on growth and supply-demand inflection points [5][16]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer goods growth, particularly in beverages, snacks, and food ingredients, while also highlighting structural opportunities in the baijiu sector [5][16]. - CPI data shows a positive trend with October CPI year-on-year at +0.2% and core CPI at +1.2%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [6][16]. - The baijiu industry is undergoing accelerated clearing, with expectations for improved sales and inventory adjustments leading into 2026 [7][16]. - Consumer goods are expected to benefit from stabilization and recovery, with a focus on low valuation and high dividend stocks [8][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended baijiu stocks include Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Gujing Distillery, and stable targets like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [5][16]. - Beverage growth is highlighted with recommendations for Eastroc Beverage and Nongfu Spring, alongside low valuation stocks like China Foods and Tingyi [5][16]. - Snack and food ingredient stocks recommended include Bailong Chuangyuan, Yankershop Food, and Three Squirrels [5][16]. - Beer recommendations include Yanjing Brewery and Tsingtao Brewery, while condiment stocks like Haitian Flavoring & Food are also suggested [5][16]. Baijiu Sector Insights - The baijiu sector is experiencing a significant adjustment, with industry destocking still in progress and a focus on promotional sales for 2026 [7][16]. - Recent sales data from JD.com shows a +18% year-on-year increase in liquor sales during the Double 11 shopping festival, indicating a positive market response [7][16]. Consumer Goods Outlook - Consumer goods are expected to see growth as the mainline, with structural differentiation evident in beverages, snacks, and health products [8][16]. - The report notes that companies with product innovation and channel expansion will have growth advantages, particularly in the context of recent service and non-food price recoveries [8][16].