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供给收缩与宏观催化共振,2025Q3猪价存在强支撑
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 10:00
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts are expected to provide strong support for pig prices in Q3 2025. The average selling price of pigs on July 4 was 15.37 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg and a 4.84% rise [12][13] - The central economic committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote high-quality development of the marine economy, which is expected to benefit the aquaculture sector [21][36] - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.14 percentage points during the week of June 27 to July 4, with the agricultural index rising by 2.55% compared to a 1.40% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [32][34] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily slaughter volume of pigs was 133,800 heads, a decrease of 7,300 heads from the previous week, indicating a seasonal decline in demand due to rising temperatures [12] - The supply side continues to contract due to previous over-culling and losses from piglets after the Spring Festival, which is expected to support prices [12] Price Trends - The average price of pigs increased to 15.35 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week rise of 0.63 yuan/kg. The price of piglets decreased to 31.33 yuan/kg, down by 0.27 yuan/kg [6][39] - The price of corn increased to 2,511 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices decreased to 2,926 yuan/ton, down by 27 yuan/ton [4][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the improving investment logic in the pig sector [27] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope are recommended due to domestic market benefits and strong overseas demand [27] Market Performance - The aquaculture sector led the market gains, with stocks like Guolian Aquatic Products rising by 12.22%, Shennong Technology by 7.31%, and Dongrui Co. by 6.92% during the week [32][35]
再提反“内卷式”竞争,调整优化生猪产能
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 09:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to combat "involutionary" competition and optimize pig production capacity, as highlighted in the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee [1][17] - The overall pig farming industry is currently profitable, with self-breeding and self-raising models showing increased profits [18][23] - The poultry sector is experiencing price declines, particularly in broiler chickens and chicken seedlings, indicating a potential for price recovery in the future [19][36] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The national average price for lean meat pigs is 14.82 CNY/kg, up 3.9% from last week, while the average wholesale price for pork is 20.58 CNY/kg, up 1.7% [21][22] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased to 90.05 kg, down 0.6% week-on-week [26] - The price of 15 kg piglets has decreased to 36.77 CNY/kg, down 1% from last week [29] Pig Farming - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is 119.72 CNY/head, an increase of 69.48 CNY/head from last week, while the profit for purchased piglets is -26.26 CNY/head, an increase of 105.45 CNY/head [23][24] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of recent policy changes on pig prices and inventory behavior [18] Poultry Farming - The average price for broiler chickens is 6.75 CNY/kg, down 3.7% from last week, and the average price for chicken products is 8.45 CNY/kg, down 1.2% [36] - The price for broiler chicks has dropped to 1.36 CNY/chick, down 20% from last week [31] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth opportunities for industry companies [19] Livestock Support - The report notes increased price volatility in agricultural products, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [19]
农林牧渔行业2025年中报前瞻:养殖盈利兑现,“后周期”景气上行,宠物食品龙头延续较快增长
Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Overweight" due to expected overall profit improvement in the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of pig farming is expected to improve, with a stable pig price and a significant increase in average profit per head for self-bred pigs [4]. - Poultry farming shows a mixed outlook, with white chicken prices bottoming out and yellow chicken profitability declining, while egg-laying chicks continue to experience high demand [4]. - The pet food sector is projected to maintain high growth, with leading companies showing strong online sales growth, despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs [4]. - Animal health is recovering, with increased demand for vaccines and improved sales of veterinary preparations [4]. - The seed industry faces challenges with declining corn prices and increased competition, leading to pressure on the performance of leading seed companies [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in H1 2025 is expected to be 14.80 CNY/kg, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, while the average profit for self-bred pigs is projected at 69.04 CNY/head, recovering from a loss of 24.82 CNY/head in H1 2024 [4]. Poultry Farming - White chicken prices are under pressure due to oversupply, with the average price for commodity broiler chicks at 2.4 CNY/bird, down 21% year-on-year. Yellow chicken prices are also declining, with the average price for Qingjiao chicken at 8.9 CNY/kg, down 19% year-on-year [4]. Pet Food - The domestic pet food market is experiencing a growth rate of 17% in online GMV for the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% in the same period of 2024. Leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. show growth rates of 51% and 26%, respectively [4]. Animal Health - The demand for veterinary vaccines has increased, with a 15.8% year-on-year rise in vaccine approvals in the first five months of 2025. Prices for veterinary preparations like Tylosin and Tiamulin have increased by 39.8% and 9.3%, respectively [4]. Seed Industry - The corn seed market is under pressure due to falling corn prices and high competition, leading to a decline in seed prices and performance expectations for leading seed companies [4].
巨星农牧(603477) - 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司关于股份回购进展公告
2025-07-01 09:33
| 证券代码:603477 | 证券简称:巨星农牧 | 公告编号:2025-061 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:113648 | 债券简称:巨星转债 | | 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 回购方案首次披露日 | 2025/4/24 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购方案实施期限 | 2025 年 4 23 日~2026 年 月 22 | 月 | 4 日 | | 预计回购金额 | 5,000万元~10,000万元 | | | | 回购用途 | □减少注册资本 √用于员工持股计划或股权激励 | | | | | □用于转换公司可转债 | | | | | □为维护公司价值及股东权益 | | | | 累计已回购股数 | 1,974,700股 | | | | 累计已回购股数占总股本比例 | 0.39% | | | | 累计已回购金额 | 40,816,475元 | | | | 实际回购价格区间 | 20 ...
巨星农牧(603477) - 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司可转债转股结果暨股份变动公告
2025-07-01 09:33
| 债券代码:113648 | | --- | | 证券代码:603477 | 债券代码:113648 债券简称:巨星转债 证券代码:603477 证券简称:巨星农牧 公告编号:2025-060 (二)可转债上市情况 经上海证券交易所自律监管决定书[2022]128号文同意,公司可转换公司债 券已于2022年5月17日起在上海证券交易所挂牌交易,债券简称"巨星转债", 债券代码"113648"。 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 可转债转股结果暨股份变动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: ● 累计转股情况:截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司(以 下简称"公司"、"本公司")可转债"巨星转债"累计转股金额为 100,261,000 元,累计因转股形成的股份数量 3,976,890 股,占可转债转股前公司已发行股份 总额的 0.7858%。 ● 未转股可转债情况:截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,尚未转股的"巨星转债" 金额为 899,739,000 元,占可转债发行总量的 ...
行业周报:2025Q2猪企利润或仍同比高增,供给收缩宏观催化共振积极配置-20250629
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 13:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply contraction has reached a point where the average price of live pigs is expected to rise, with the national average price at 14.74 yuan/kg as of June 29, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.45 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 3.17% [4][13] - The profit of pig farming enterprises is expected to maintain high growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by increased output, heavier average weights, and reduced costs [5][23] - The investment logic for the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive allocation strategy [6][30] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In Q2 2025, the average price of live pigs is projected at 14.55 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 11.22%, while the cost of pig farming has decreased to 13.38 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decline of 2.92% [5][23] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.99 kg/head, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, with a projected year-on-year increase of 34.07% in the total output of 12 major listed pig companies [5][23] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index underperformed the broader market by 1.11 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and the agricultural index increasing by 0.80% [34][36] - The aquaculture sector led the gains, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Biological Shares (+9.83%) and Spring Snow Food (+9.82%) [34][38] Price Tracking - As of June 27, 2025, the national average price for live pigs was 14.72 yuan/kg, up 0.50 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price for piglets was 31.6 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan/kg [41][44] - The feed price ratio for pigs was recorded at 4.38:1, indicating the profitability dynamics in the sector [41] Recommendations - The report recommends actively allocating investments in leading pig companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as well as in the feed sector benefiting from strong overseas demand [6][30]
巨星农牧: 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券受托管理事务报告(2024年度)
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-26 16:06
股票简称:巨星农牧 股票代码:603477 转债简称:巨星转债 转债代码:113648 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券 受托管理事务报告 (2024 年度) 债券受托管理人 二〇二五年六月 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》 (以下简称"《管理办法》")、 《乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司与华西证券股份有限公司关于公开发行可 转换公 司债券之受托管理协议》(以下简称"《受托管理协议》")、《乐山巨星农牧 股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券募集说明书》 (以下简称"《募集说明书》") 等规定和约定,以及乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司(以下简称"巨星农牧" "公司" 或"发行人")提供的资料或说明、《乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 2024 年年度 报告》等公开信息披露文件、第三方中介机构出具的专业意见等,由本次向不特 定对象发行可转换公司债券受托管理人华西证券股份有限公司(以下简称"华西 证券")编制。华西证券对本报告中所包含的从上述文件中引述内容和信息未进 行独立验证,也不就该等引述内容和信息的真实性、准确性和完整性做出任何保 证或承担任何责任。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行 ...
巨星农牧(603477) - 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券受托管理事务报告(2024年度)
2025-06-26 08:02
股票简称:巨星农牧 股票代码:603477 转债简称:巨星转债 转债代码:113648 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券 受托管理事务报告 (2024 年度) 债券受托管理人 | | 重要声明 1 | | --- | --- | | 目 | 录 2 | | 第一节 | 本次债券概况 3 | | 第二节 | 受托管理人履行职责情况 13 | | 第三节 | 发行人年度经营与财务状况 14 | | 第四节 | 发行人募集资金使用情况 17 | | 第五节 | 本次债券担保人情况 20 | | 第六节 | 债券持有人会议召开情况 21 | | 第七节 | 本次债券付息情况 22 | | 第八节 | 本次债券跟踪评级情况 23 | | 第九节 | 债券持有人权益有重大影响的其他事项 24 | 第一节 本次债券概况 一、核准文件及核准规模 二〇二五年六月 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》(以下简称"《管理办法》")、 《乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司与华西证券股份有限公司关于公开发行可转换公 司债券之受托管理协议》(以下简称"《受托管理协议》")、《乐山巨星农牧 股份有限公司公开发行 ...
巨星农牧: 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式首次回购公司股份的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-23 17:26
证券代码:603477 证券简称:巨星农牧 公告编号:2025-059 债券代码:113648 债券简称:巨星转债 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 关于以集中竞价交易方式首次回购公司股份的公告 一、 回购股份的基本情况 公司于 2025 年 4 月 23 日召开第四届董事会第二十五次会议,审议通过了《关 于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案的议案》。公司本次拟使用不低于人民币 易方式回购公司股份,用于实施员工持股计划或股权激励。本次回购期限为自公 司董事会审议通过回购股份方案之日起 12 个月内。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,公 司总资产为人民币 87.64 亿元,归属于上市公司股东的净资产为人民币 33.01 亿 元。本次回购资金总额的上限人民币 10,000 万元,占公司总资产、归属于上市公 司股东的净资产的比重分别为 1.14%、3.03%。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 4 月 编号:2025-033)。 二、 回购股份的进展情况 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号——回购股份》等相关规定,现将公司回购股份的进展情况公告如下: 计回购公司股份 985,000 ...
巨星农牧(603477) - 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式首次回购公司股份的公告
2025-06-23 10:16
元。本次回购资金总额的上限人民币 10,000 万元,占公司总资产、归属于上市公 司股东的净资产的比重分别为 1.14%、3.03%。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 4 月 24 日在上海证券交易所网站(www.sse.com.cn)及指定媒体上披露的公告(公告 编号:2025-033)。 二、回购股份的进展情况 | 证券代码:603477 | 证券简称:巨星农牧 | 公告编号:2025-059 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:113648 | 债券简称:巨星转债 | | 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 关于以集中竞价交易方式首次回购公司股份的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: | 回购方案首次披露日 | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | | 回购方案实施期限 | 2025 年 4 月 23 日~2026 年 4 月 22 日 | | 预计回购金额 | 5,000万元~10,000万元 | | 回购用途 | □减少注册资本 √用于员工持股计划或股权激励 ...