Core Viewpoint - The "luwei" (marinated food) industry is undergoing significant differentiation and deep adjustments, with major players showing contrasting performance signals, highlighting the challenges of slowing growth, store reductions, and intensified competition [2][3]. Performance Divergence - ST Juewei (603517.SH) has announced an expected revenue of 5.3 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.09% to 15.29%, and anticipates its first annual loss since its listing, estimated between 160 million to 220 million yuan [3]. - In contrast, Huang Shang Huang (002695.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 70 million to 90 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 73.57% to 123.16% [4]. Store Count Reduction - Despite the increase in net profit for Huang Shang Huang and Zhou Hei Ya (1458.HK), both companies are reducing their store counts. Zhou Hei Ya reported a decrease of 167 stores, bringing the total to 2,864 by mid-2025 [5]. - Huang Shang Huang had 2,898 stores in June 2025, down from 3,660 at the end of 2024 [6]. Industry Challenges - The overall growth of the "luwei" industry is hindered by several factors, including high prices, changing consumer willingness, and competition from snacks and ready-to-eat meals [7]. - The industry is experiencing a slowdown, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.42% from 2018 to 2023, and a market size of approximately 318 billion yuan in 2023 [6]. Market Dynamics - The industry faces three main pain points: competition from alternative products, product homogeneity among top brands, and pricing issues where leading brands have an average product price exceeding 50 yuan per jin, leading to insufficient perceived value among consumers [7].

Core Viewpoint - The "luwei" (marinated food) industry is undergoing significant differentiation and deep adjustments, with major players showing contrasting performance signals amid a backdrop of slowing growth and intensified competition [3]. Performance Divergence - ST Juewei (603517.SH) has announced an expected revenue of 5.3 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.09% to 15.29%. This marks the company's first annual loss since its listing, with an anticipated loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan [5]. - In contrast, Huang Shang Huang (002695.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 70 million to 90 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 73.57% to 123.16% [6]. - Zhou Hei Ya (1458.HK) has not yet released its full-year earnings forecast, but its mid-2025 report indicates total revenue of 1.223 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9%, while net profit rose by 228% to 108 million yuan [7]. Store Count Reduction - Despite Zhou Hei Ya's profit increase and Huang Shang Huang's strong performance, both companies are reducing their store counts. Zhou Hei Ya closed 167 stores, bringing its total to 2,864 by mid-2025 [9]. - Huang Shang Huang reported a decrease in store count from 3,660 at the end of 2024 to 2,898 in June 2025 [10]. - ST Juewei has not disclosed its store count in recent reports, but it is estimated to have reduced over 4,000 stores in a year and a half, with approximately 10,713 stores remaining as of February 2026 [10]. Industry Challenges - The growth of the "luwei" industry is facing challenges due to a decline in consumer willingness, high prices, and competition from snacks and ready-to-eat meals. This has led to major companies closing inefficient stores and exploring transformation strategies [3][11]. - The overall market growth rate for the marinated food industry has slowed, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.42% from 2018 to 2023, and a market size of approximately 318 billion yuan in 2023 [10]. - Key pain points in the industry include competition from alternative products, product homogeneity among top brands, and pricing issues, with leading brands averaging over 50 yuan per kilogram, leading to a perceived lack of value among consumers [11].

Core Viewpoint - The "luwei" industry is undergoing significant differentiation and deep adjustments, with major players showing contrasting performance signals amid a backdrop of slowing growth and intensified competition [2] Performance Divergence - ST Juewei (603517.SH) has announced an expected revenue of 5.3 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.09% to 15.29%, and anticipates its first annual loss since its listing, estimating a loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan [3] - In contrast, Huangshanghuang (002695.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 70 million to 90 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 73.57% to 123.16% [4] Store Count Reduction - Despite the increase in net profit for Huangshanghuang and ST Juewei, both companies are reducing their store counts. Huangshanghuang had 2,898 stores in June 2025, down from 3,660 at the end of 2024 [6] - ST Juewei has seen a net reduction of over 4,000 stores in a year and a half, with approximately 10,713 stores remaining as of February 2026 [6] Industry Challenges - The overall "luwei" industry is facing challenges such as product homogenization, high prices, and changing consumer willingness, leading to the closure of inefficient stores and a search for transformation among leading companies [2][7] - The industry growth has slowed significantly, with a CAGR of 6.42% from 2018 to 2023, and the market size reaching approximately 318 billion yuan in 2023 [6] Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing threats from alternative products, including snacks and hot pot brands, which are encroaching on the "luwei" market [7] - There is a high degree of product overlap among the top 10 brands, with 80% of their offerings being similar, leading to concerns about pricing and consumer value perception [7]

Core Insights - The overall sentiment in the marinated food industry indicates a significant challenge due to high prices and low cost-performance ratio, compounded by declining consumer willingness and confidence [1] Industry Performance - The marinated food sector is experiencing severe differentiation and deep adjustments, with major players showing divergent performance signals [1] - ST Juewei (603517.SH) anticipates its first annual loss since its listing in 2025, projecting a revenue decline of 12.09% to 15.29%, with expected losses between 160 million to 220 million yuan [2] - In contrast, Huang Shang Huang (002695.SZ) forecasts a net profit increase of over 70% for 2025, attributed to low raw material prices and improved operational efficiency [2][3] Store Count Trends - Despite positive profit forecasts, both Huang Shang Huang and Zhou Hei Ya (1458.HK) are reducing their store counts, with Zhou Hei Ya closing inefficient stores, resulting in a decrease from 3031 to 2864 stores [4][5] - Huang Shang Huang's store count dropped from 3660 to 2898 over the past two years, while ST Juewei has not disclosed its store count, but it has reportedly closed over 4000 stores in a year and a half [5] Market Challenges - The marinated food industry faces significant challenges, including competition from snacks, prepared dishes, and hot pot brands, leading to a threat of substitution [6][7] - Product homogeneity is prevalent, with 80% of the top 10 brands offering overlapping products, and there are concerns regarding pricing, as leading brands have an average product price exceeding 50 yuan per jin, which diminishes perceived consumer value [7]

"鸭脖大王"绝味食品迎来上市以来的首次年度亏损。近日，ST绝味（603517）披露了2025年业绩预亏公告。预计营收为53亿元至55亿元，同比下降 12.09%至15.29%。 由于营收下降、生产产能未能充分释放，归母净利润也由盈转亏。公司预计2025年亏损1.6亿元至2.2亿元，上年为盈利2.27亿元，创下2017年上市以来首 亏纪录，也达十余年盈利新低。 2025年前三季度，ST绝味仍实现归母净利润2.8亿元，这意味着公司第四季度单季亏损额高达4.4亿元至5亿元。不过，公司全年扣非后的归母净利润预计 为0.7亿元至1亿元，主业还处盈利状态。 绝味鸭脖北京一门店。图源：网友晒图 对于业绩亏损，ST绝味在公告中明确提及两大核心拖累因素：营业外支出事项增加，以及权益法核算下投资亏损。其中，投资板块的持续失血成为关 键。 "卤味三巨头"的业绩表现分化逐渐加大。1月29日煌上煌发布年度业绩预告，2025年预计归母净利润为7000万元至9000万元，同比增长73.57%至 123.16%。 周黑鸭目前为止尚未发布全年业绩预告，但据其中期报告，到2025上半年周黑鸭实现总收入12.23亿元，净利润1.08亿元，同比增长 ...

但这只是表象。深究其里，主业的失速才是核心症结。2025年，绝味预计营收同比下降12%至15%，这 意味着其赖以生存的鸭脖卖不动了。 除了主业疲软，绝味引以为傲的"美食生态圈"投资也成了财务黑洞。过去几年，绝味大举投资了和府捞 面、书亦烧仙草、廖记棒棒鸡等餐饮品牌。然而，在消费寒冬下，这些被投企业不仅未能贡献利润，反 而成了拖累业绩的包袱。数据显示，绝味已连续三年录得投资净亏损，累计金额超3.7亿元。 同一赛道上，煌上煌和周黑鸭却在寒冬中交出了盈利的答卷。卤味江湖的格局正在发生剧变：曾经 的"一超多强"正演变为"冰火两重天"。 2026年的春节，对"鸭脖一哥"绝味食品来说，注定十分寒冷。 当"月入过万吃不起鸭脖"成为消费者的集体吐槽，当粗放扩张的后遗症集中爆发，绝味鸭脖的这场危 机，不仅是一家企业的滑铁卢，更是整个传统卤味行业转型阵痛的缩影。 1月22日，ST绝味（维权）发布业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润亏损1.6亿元至2.2亿元。这是公司自 2017年上市以来的首次年度亏损。 绝味的坠落，并非一夜之间，而是多重隐患的集中爆发。 与此同时，在过去的一年半里，绝味鸭脖的门店数量净减少了超过4000家。那个曾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the "three giants" in the marinated food industry shows a stark contrast, with Huangshanghuang and Zhouheiya experiencing profit growth, while Juewei Foods recorded its first annual loss since its listing [2][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Huangshanghuang expects a net profit of 70 million to 90 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 73.57% to 123.16% [4]. - Zhouheiya has not yet released its full-year forecast but reported a total revenue of 1.223 billion yuan and a net profit of 108 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 228.0% [4]. - In contrast, Juewei Foods anticipates a revenue of 5.3 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 12.09% to 15.29% year-on-year, and a net loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Store Count and Market Dynamics - Juewei Foods had the highest number of stores among the three giants, with 14,969 stores as of mid-2024, but has since seen a significant reduction, with only 10,713 stores remaining by January 2026, a decrease of over 4,000 stores [6]. - Zhouheiya and Huangshanghuang also closed stores, with Zhouheiya reducing its count to 2,864 stores by mid-2025, closing nearly 600 stores, and Huangshanghuang closing over 700 stores in the same period [6]. - Collectively, the three giants closed more than 5,300 stores within approximately six months [7].

与之相反的是绝味食品，近期绝味食品发布业绩预告称，2025年，其预计实现营业收入为53亿元至55亿 元，同比下降12.09%至15.29%；预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-1.60亿元至-2.20亿元，归属于上 市公司股东扣除非经常性损益的净利润为7000万元至1.0亿元。而2024年，其预计归属于上市公司股东 的净利润为2.27亿元，归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益的净利润为2.03亿元。这也是绝味食品自 2017年上市以来首次录得年度亏损。 针对业绩预亏原因，绝味食品指出，在整体经济趋稳的大背景下，消费行业仍面临结构性调整压力。 2025年，公司经营持续承压，营业收入有所下降，生产产能未充分释放，多方面因素综合影响导致利润 下降。另外，营业外支出事项增加以及权益法核算下投资亏损，进而对其业绩变动造成较大影响。 近期卤味上市公司相继发布年度业绩预告，其中"卤味三巨头"的业绩表现呈现两极分化：煌上煌 （002695）与周黑鸭利润增长，而门店最多的绝味食品却自上市以来首次录得年度亏损。 股价上三巨头亦表现欠佳，其中市值对比上市首日，仅煌上煌显示增长约32亿元，绝味、周黑鸭分别减 少约18亿元、119亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the "three giants" in the marinated food industry shows a stark contrast, with Huangshanghuang and Zhouheiya experiencing profit growth, while Juewei Foods recorded its first annual loss since its listing [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Huangshanghuang expects a net profit of 70 million to 90 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 73.57% to 123.16% [2]. - Zhouheiya has not yet released its full-year forecast, but its mid-year report indicates a total revenue of 1.223 billion yuan and a net profit of 108 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 228.0% [2]. - In contrast, Juewei Foods anticipates a revenue of 5.3 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 12.09% to 15.29% year-on-year, and a net loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Store Count and Market Dynamics - Juewei Foods had the highest number of stores among the three giants, with 14,969 stores as of mid-2024, but has since closed over 4,000 stores, reducing its count to 10,713 by January 2026 [4]. - Zhouheiya and Huangshanghuang have also been closing stores, with Zhouheiya reducing its count to 2,864 stores and Huangshanghuang closing over 700 stores in the first half of 2025 [4]. - Collectively, the three giants have closed more than 5,300 stores within approximately six months [4].

Core Viewpoint - The pickled food industry is facing a "growth bottleneck," impacting the performance of Juewei Foods (ST Juewei, 603517.SH), which is expected to report a net loss for the fiscal year 2025 [1][5]. Financial Performance - Juewei Foods forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -160 million to -220 million yuan for 2025, indicating a loss compared to the previous year [1][5]. - The company anticipates operating revenue of 5.3 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.09% to 15.29% [2][5]. - The revenue target set in 2022 for 2025 was 10.937 billion yuan, meaning the company will only achieve 48.46% to 50.29% of this goal [3][5]. Market Context - The overall economic environment is stabilizing, but the consumption sector is still under structural adjustment pressure, affecting Juewei's operations [6]. - The fast-food market in China is projected to reach a scale of 1.08 trillion yuan by 2025, which could be a key growth driver for the restaurant industry [4][10]. Strategic Initiatives - Juewei Foods is entering the fast-food sector with a new brand "Juewei Bao Bao," combining its pickled food heritage with hot pot fast food to provide a new growth path [4][9]. - Industry experts suggest that Juewei should focus on product health upgrades, private traffic operations, and digital supply chain transformation to adapt to consumer trends [3][9]. Regulatory Issues - Juewei Foods has faced regulatory scrutiny for alleged violations of information disclosure, resulting in a warning and a fine of 4 million yuan [11].