食品饮料/休闲食品 公 司 研 究 门店经营仍有压力，利润受益成本红利 绝味食品（603517.SH） 2024 年 09 月 02 日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：增持（维持） 张宇光（分析师） 陈钟山（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 chenzhongshan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040001 同店经营仍有压力，利润受益成本下降，维持"增持"评级 公司 2024H1 实现收入 33.4 亿元，同比下滑 9.7%，实现归母净利润 2.96 亿元， 同比增长 22.2%；其中 2024Q2 实现收入 16.4 亿元，同比下滑 12.3%，实现归母 净利润 1.31 亿元，同比增长 25.1%。我们维持公司 2024-2026 年盈利预测，预计 分别实现归母净利润 6.8、7.9、9.0 亿元，同比增长 98.3%、16.2%、13.4%，当 前股价对应 PE 分别为 11.4、9.8、8.6 倍，公司作为行业龙头，未来有望门店经 营逐步改善，美食生态圈企业平稳恢复，维持"增持"评级。 门店数量收缩，收入有所下降 公司 2 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.02 [table_Authors]訾猛(分析师) 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880513120002 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 姚世佳 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | 021-38676912 | | | | | | yaoshijia@gtjas.com | | | | | | S0880520070001 | | | | | ——2Q24 中报业绩点评 本报告导读： 业绩符合预期，中期分红超预期，预计 2024 年全年保持高分红，同步进行回购。 1H24 净关店，下调盈利预测，目前股价对应 2024 年 PE 14X，维持"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] ...

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证 2024 年 08 月 30 日 告 基本数据 2024-08-30 当前股价（元） 12.84 总市值（亿元） 80 总股本（百万股） 620 流通股本（百万股） 620 52 周价格范围（元） 12.08-37.95 日均成交额（百万元） 173.14 公 司 研 究 究 报 优化门店质量，成本下降盈利水平同比提升 —绝味食品（603517.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：廖望州 S1050523100001 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn 市场表现 (%) 绝味食品 沪深300 -80 -60 -40 -20 20 0 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《绝味食品（603517）：门店数 量稳定增长，成本下降盈利水平回 升》2024-05-02 2、《绝味食品（603517）：拟回购 超 2 亿元市值股份，彰显长期发展 信心》2024-02-22 3、《绝味食品（603517）：成本压 力缓解，盈利能力复苏》2023-10- 26 2024 年 08 月 30 日，绝味食品发布 ...

A股主板 603517 绝味食品 4 绝味食品股份有限公司 半年度报告 以特色美食 丰富美好生活 绝味食品股份有限公司 2024 年半年度报告 重要提示 一、本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实性、准确 性、完整性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 三、本半年度报告未经审计。 四、公司负责人戴文军、主管会计工作负责人王志华及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）章晓 勇声明：保证半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 五、董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 2024年8月30日公司第五届董事会第二十一次会议审议通过2024年半年度利润分配预案，拟 以截至2024年8月30日，公司最新总股本619,925,248股为基数（最终以权益分派股权登记日登记 的股份数为准），扣除公司回购专用证券账户中的股份13,923,312股，向全体股东每10股派发现 金股利人民币3.00元（含税），合计派发现金股利181,800,580.80元，上述分配预案尚需股东大会 审议批准。 六、前瞻性陈述的风险声明 □适用 ...

华 发 集 团 旗 下 个 业 财务数据与估值 表 1：公司业务拆分（单位：百万元） 本报告仅供华金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的客户使用。本公司不会因为任何机构或个人接收到本报告而视其为本 公司的当然客户。 网址： www.huajinsc.cn 投资建议：我们从基本面、情绪面、资金面三方面来分析： 一、盈利预测 数据来源：聚源、华金证券研究所 —基本面：Q3 以来公司积极开展营销活动，聘请新代言人，加上奥运会加持，我 们认为销售上或有体现；24 年公司对门店进行调整，门店优化后未来公司将迎来 高质量发展。 —资金面：公司分红率 3.4%处于行业中上水平，符合当下投资者对红利的偏好， 此外近日外资连续买入，估值有望提升。根据 wind 数据，截至 7 月 26 日，陆股通 持有公司股份 1349 万股，持股占比 2.17%，七月以来北上资金多日流入。 风险提示：宏观经济发生较大的波动；渠道拓展不及预期；行业竞争加剧；原材料 等成本快速上升；食品安全问题等 公司快报/休闲食品Ⅲ 资料来源：Wind，华金证券研究所 （2） 加盟商管理：公司加盟商管理与公司门店数量有关，我们预计 24-26 年加盟费均 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Juewei Food (603517 SH) despite short-term consumption pressures [4][105] Core Views - The optional food industry has entered a deceleration phase with most categories growing at single-digit rates except for nuts, meat, and aquatic products [2] - Juewei Food's long-term development logic remains positive, with adjustments made to net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 647/841/933 million yuan (down 23%/14%/19% respectively) [105] - The leisure braised food industry still has strong vitality, with the key being adaptation to channel changes [105] Industry Analysis Optional Food Market Trends - From 2012 to 2022, most optional food categories experienced a slowdown in growth, with only a few like chips and puffed snacks maintaining growth [2] - Instant noodles have shown resilience, with demand recovering to 98% of historical highs by 2022 due to product innovation and diversified marketing [188] - The jelly market faced a significant downturn after the "toxic gelatin" incident in 2014, but new brands like ZUO and Meidong have revitalized the category by targeting younger consumers [30][191] Japanese Market Insights - Japan's "chushoku" (mid-meal) market has grown steadily for 30 years, driven by aging populations and convenience-seeking behaviors [199] - Hotland, a leading Japanese takoyaki brand, has maintained sustainable same-store sales growth through data-driven strategies and IP collaborations [62][105] - Hotland's success is attributed to strong upstream control, exclusive cooking equipment, and multi-format expansion [220][222][225] Company Analysis Juewei Food's Positioning - Juewei Food's core products, such as duck necks and chicken feet, have strong market positions due to their unique attributes like bone-removal and addictive spiciness [169] - The company is actively adapting to channel changes, including online platforms like Douyin and snack retail chains [105][177] Hotland's Strategies and Implications - Hotland emphasizes data analysis for product development, marketing, and store expansion, leading to consistent same-store sales growth [62][220] - The company has diversified its product offerings and expanded into new formats like highball bars and frozen takoyaki for home consumption [225][93] - Hotland's IP collaborations, such as with "Demon Slayer," have significantly boosted brand visibility and sales [96] Financial Projections - Juewei Food's revenue is projected to grow from 6 623 million yuan in 2022 to 8 362 million yuan in 2026, with net profit increasing from 233 million yuan to 933 million yuan [142][105] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 40x in 2022 to 10x in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and market confidence [142][105]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its strong brand influence, high market recognition, and advantages in store count and production capacity [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 1.23, 1.42, and 1.60 yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12X, 10X, and 9X, which are lower than the industry average [4] - The company's revenue is projected to grow steadily, with 2024-2026 revenue estimated at 7.904, 8.514, and 9.097 billion yuan, respectively, with a CAGR of 8.85%, 7.71%, and 6.86% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 765.12, 877.83, and 993.93 million yuan for 2024-2026, with a CAGR of 14.73% and 13.23% [5] Industry Overview - The Chinese braised food market is expanding, with the market size expected to grow from 233 billion yuan in 2018 to 405.1 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining a steady growth rate of 9%-15% [3] - The industry is highly fragmented, with the top player, Juewei Food, holding a market share of only 5.39% in 2020, indicating significant room for growth for leading companies [3] Company Overview - The company has a stable and concentrated equity structure, with major shareholders including Shanghai Jucheng, Shanghai Huigong, Shanghai Chengguang, and Shanghai Fubo, holding 32.94%, 7.80%, 2.67%, and 2.44% of the shares, respectively [23] - The company has implemented equity incentive plans to motivate employees, with 847,800 stock options granted in 2022, covering 178 key employees, including 2 executives and 176 core staff [24] Business Strategy - The company follows a "land grab" strategy, rapidly expanding its store network, with the number of stores increasing from 1,000 in 2008 to 5,000 in 2013 [28] - The company is focusing on improving single-store revenue while maintaining steady store expansion, with the total number of stores reaching 15,950 in 2023, a net increase of 874 stores [80] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 344.31 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.63% [5] - The company's gross margin was 24.77% in 2023, down 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to rising raw material costs, but is expected to improve in 2024 [67] Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding into lower-tier cities, with about 60% of its stores located in first- and second-tier cities, leaving significant room for growth in third- and fourth-tier cities [31] - The company has established 22 production bases (including 3 under construction), each covering a radius of 300-500 kilometers, ensuring efficient supply chain management [118] Product and Brand Strategy - The company's main revenue comes from fresh food products, with poultry products accounting for 72.71% of fresh food revenue in 2023 [84] - The company is targeting the "Z generation" as its main customer base, launching various flavored products and collaborating with popular IPs to attract younger consumers [122] Competitive Landscape - The braised food industry is highly fragmented, with the top three companies holding only 3.66% of the market share in 2020, indicating significant room for consolidation [172] - The company's main competitors include Zhou Hei Ya and Huang Shang Huang in the leisure braised food segment, and Zi Yan Food in the meal braised food segment [162]

2024 年 7 月 18 日 要点 从可选属性出发，如何理解绝味？ 可选食品基本上在 10 年前已进入减速期：2012-2022 年期间，除了坚果、肉类 食品、水产可选食品销售额出现过加速成长外，大部分可选食品品类的规模年化 增速跌到双位数以下，但诸如薯片、膨化食品这类与消费升级、健康化关系不大 的品类仍能维持增长。 从需求看，可选食品各品类都有较好的立足点：果冻可被平替的品类较少，过往 消费者痛点主要集中在产品健康、小孩噎住等和市场教育有关的问题上；方便面 解决了"面食+速食"的需求；休闲卤味中，凤爪与鸭脖若剔除辣的成瘾性，我 们认为其核心立足点可能是在剔骨这一动作上，即让消费者能够花费一定精力处 理食物，以便更好地打发时间并延续饱腹感，该属性可替代的品类也存在，但作 为第二、第三大消费肉类，鸡副和鸭副在供应链上占有优势。 当前价：15.10 元 作者 分析师：叶倩瑜 执业证书编号：S0930517100003 021-52523657 yeqianyu@ebscn.com 分析师：杨哲 执业证书编号：S0930522080001 021-52523795 yangz@ebscn.com 分析师：李嘉祺 ...

2024 年 6 月 10 日 重视门店优化，看好公司私域化建设 要点 单店收入有待改善，重视门店优化。短期看消费仍有承压，单店收入仍有待改善， 公司上半年因经营调整，费用投放及经营节奏有所放缓，随着 6 月中下旬欧洲杯 开启，公司有望配合开展积极营销活动，进一步改善单店收入水平。从开店上看， 上半年仍然是主要的开店期，但公司不对全年开店任务进行考核，核心在于保障 单店收入的稳健提升，或仍会对经营不善的门店进行调整与关停。从加盟商的角 度上讲，尽管绝味门店投资回收期在疫情后有所延长，但在加盟业态中，绝味门 店的经营稳定性、盈利性仍然属于较优的选择，且公司亦在持续优化架构，调整 经营战略，中长期看仍然具备增长潜力。 卤味生命力旺盛，企业积极适应变化。当前市场较为担心休闲卤味的生命力，以 及头部公司的成长性，我们认为：1）从行业层面上讲，卤制品有着持续的需求， 只不过消费场景发生了转移，从品牌店转移到街边卤味或线上等渠道；2）因此 从公司层面讲，企业能否适应渠道流量变化，做出适宜调整成为关键，绝味主动 调整加盟商结构与加盟门店结构，周黑鸭开拓"热卤+鲜货"的二合一门店，同 时各个企业均开始强化线上及品牌建设，完善 ...