Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its performance, with a focus on new product launches and channel reforms. The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" fills a gap in the 200-300 RMB price range, which is one of the fastest-growing segments in the Anhui market. This product is expected to drive revenue growth [1][2] - The company reported a total revenue of 43.62 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.11 billion RMB, down 2.81% year-on-year. The third quarter saw a significant decline in revenue and profit due to macroeconomic pressures and the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival [2][3] - The company is undergoing positive changes in its operations, including capacity expansion and increased marketing investments. The focus on channel flatness and market penetration in Anhui is expected to strengthen its market position [5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.95 billion RMB, down 22.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.62 billion RMB, down 27.72% year-on-year. The decline reflects the overall pressure on the liquor industry this year [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin decreased by 5.90 percentage points to 71.91% in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased operating costs. The net profit margin also fell by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% [3] - The company’s cash flow remains stable, with a year-on-year increase in sales cash receipts by 1.78% and a decrease in operating cash flow by 8.32% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 60.51 billion RMB, 69.77 billion RMB, and 80.15 billion RMB, respectively. The net profit forecasts are 17.52 billion RMB, 20.20 billion RMB, and 23.21 billion RMB for the same years. The expected EPS for these years are 2.92 RMB, 3.37 RMB, and 3.87 RMB, respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][7] Core Views - The company is experiencing a challenging demand environment, leading to a proactive release of channel risks to secure long-term growth potential [3][5][7] - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts downward due to ongoing demand pressures, with expectations of modest growth in the coming years [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022: 5,135 million CNY - 2023: 5,962 million CNY - 2024E: 5,971 million CNY (0.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: 6,447 million CNY (8.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,988 million CNY (8.4% YoY growth) [1][8] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022: 1,550 million CNY - 2023: 1,721 million CNY - 2024E: 1,713 million CNY (-0.5% YoY) - 2025E: 1,883 million CNY (9.9% YoY) - 2026E: 2,079 million CNY (10.4% YoY) [1][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022: 2.58 CNY - 2023: 2.87 CNY - 2024E: 2.86 CNY - 2025E: 3.14 CNY - 2026E: 3.46 CNY [1][8] - **Profitability Ratios**: - EBIT Margin: Expected to decline from 39.6% in 2022 to 37.5% in 2024E, then recover slightly to 38.7% by 2026E [1] - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to decrease from 17.4% in 2022 to 16.3% in 2024E, with a slight recovery to 17.3% by 2026E [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 16.6 in 2022 to 12.4 by 2026E [1][8] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 2.88 in 2022 to 2.14 by 2026E [1][8] - EV/EBITDA: Expected to decrease from 12.6 in 2022 to 9.8 by 2026E [1][8] Market Trends - The company is facing a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.0% in revenue and 27.7% in net profit [3][5] - The company is actively adjusting its sales strategies and channel management to cope with the current market conditions, focusing on maintaining a healthy inventory and improving sales efficiency [6][7]

本公司于 2024 年 10 月 29 日收到黄绍刚先生办理股票质押展期的通知，具 体情况如下： 一、本次股份质押展期情况 重要内容提示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 黄绍刚先生持有安徽口子酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）股份 数量为 12,411,743 股，占公司总股本比例为 2.07%；本次质押展期 5,000,100 股 后，黄绍刚先生持有本公司股份累计质押数量为 5,000,100 股，占其持股数量比 例为 40.29%。 黄绍刚先生及其一致行动人持有本公司股份数量为 252,063,712 股，占本 公司总股本的 42.01%；本次质押展期 5,000,100 股后，黄绍刚先生及其一致行动 人持有本公司股份累计质押数量为 38,431,600 股，占其持股数量比例为 15.25%。 证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2024-047 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 关于股东股票质押展期的公告 黄绍刚先生于 2022 年 11 月 3 日将持有的本公司的股份 5,0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 49.92 CNY [4][6][13]. Core Insights - The company has entered an adjustment phase due to constrained consumer power, resulting in performance below expectations. However, profitability remains relatively high, and pre-sale indicators are healthy, suggesting potential for recovery [2][4][14]. - The report forecasts a decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 2.58 CNY, 2.70 CNY, and 2.83 CNY, down from previous estimates of 3.24 CNY, 3.53 CNY, and 3.77 CNY respectively [4][13]. - Despite the current adjustment period, the company is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer goods valuation and industry average comparisons, which supports the target price [4][13]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.195 billion CNY and a net profit of 362 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year declines of 22.04% and 27.02% respectively [14]. - The gross margin showed significant fluctuations, while the net margin remained high at 30.28%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 2.38 percentage points [14]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.45 billion CNY, down 8.6% from the previous year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [5][14]. Market Position - The company is currently facing challenges in both domestic and external markets, with revenue declines of 22% and 26% respectively in Q3 2024 [14]. - The company is undergoing channel and product reforms, which are expected to take time but may lead to performance recovery as the industry cycle improves [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 45 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.36 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.31 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.20 billion yuan, down 22.0%, and net profit was 360 million yuan, down 27.7% [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and nurturing terminal sales, adjusting its growth expectations in response to industry pressures and increased competition [1]. - The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" is expected to enhance market acceptance and contribute to sales growth, with a focus on improving channel management and relationships [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1%. However, revenue is expected to decline by 8.2% in 2024, followed by further declines in 2025 and 2026 [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.72 billion yuan in 2023, with a decline of 10.9% in 2024, and further declines in the following years [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.87 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.56 yuan in 2024, and further to 2.23 yuan in 2025 [9].

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料 2024 年 10 月 28 日 口子窖 (603589) ——24Q3 点评：收入业绩承压 现金流相对稳健 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 42.79 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 52.74/33.88 | | 市净率 | 2.6 | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | 3.51 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 25,594 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,322.20/10,685.89 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.93 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [5][12]. Core Views - The company is showing signs of a bottoming out in its fundamentals, with expectations for recovery momentum [2]. - The external macro environment presents challenges, particularly affecting the sales of mid-to-high-end liquor products [3]. - The company is focusing on strategic single product development while enhancing the promotion of series products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.311 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, a decline of 22.04% year-on-year, with a net profit of 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year [2]. Product Segmentation - High-end liquor revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 4.112 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.09%, accounting for 96.71% of total revenue [3]. - In Q3 2024, high-end liquor revenue was 1.139 billion yuan, down 22.7% year-on-year, while low-end liquor revenue increased by 44.47% to 91 million yuan [3]. Channel and Market Analysis - The company's direct sales and wholesale channels generated revenues of 135 million yuan and 4.117 billion yuan respectively, with direct sales up 48.01% and wholesale down 3.86% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Anhui province, where Q3 2024 revenue was 9.52 billion yuan, down 22.09% year-on-year [4]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 71.91%, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin decreased by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% compared to the same period last year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 1.739 billion yuan in 2024, 1.996 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.249 billion yuan in 2026 [5]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 15, 13, and 11 times for the respective years [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 48.62 CNY based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2024 [2][4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.36 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, and a net profit of 1.31 billion CNY, down 2.8% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.20 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 22.0%, while net profit fell by 27.7% to 360 million CNY [1]. - The revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.11 billion CNY, 49 million CNY, and 91 million CNY, showing year-on-year changes of -3.1%, -27.4%, and +44.5% respectively. In Q3, the revenue for these categories was 1.14 billion CNY, 13 million CNY, and 21 million CNY, with year-on-year changes of -22.7%, -55.3%, and +26.5% respectively [1]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 74.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 30.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.86 CNY, 3.17 CNY, and 3.54 CNY respectively, with a downward revision from previous estimates [2][7]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 6.006 billion CNY, with a slight growth of 0.7% year-on-year, followed by 6.565 billion CNY in 2025 and 7.277 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 9.3% and 10.8% respectively [3][7]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.716 billion CNY, with a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, followed by 1.903 billion CNY in 2025 and 2.126 billion CNY in 2026, indicating growth rates of 10.9% and 11.7% respectively [3][7].

财联社10月28日讯（记者 朱万平）"徽酒老三"口子窖（603589.SH）今年前三季度营收和净利润双降， 不及多数券商预期，也未达公司此前确定的营收增速目标指引。单看Q3，公司营收下滑超过两成，归 母净利润下滑近三成。此外，公司实控人之一刘安省在Q3减持套现超2亿元。 今日晚间，口子窖发布三季报，今年前三季度公司实现营收43.62亿元，同比下降1.89%；归母净利润 13.11亿元，同比下降2.81%。这一业绩增速未达到公司年初确定的目标指引。此前口子窖披露《2024年 度财务预算方案》称，今年口子窖预算营业收入70.35亿元，同比增长18%。 单看第三季度，今年Q3口子窖实现营业收入11.95亿元，同比下降22.04%，归母净利润3.62亿元，同比 下降27.72%。而口子窖Q3净利润不及多数券商预期。 据财联社记者统计，目前包括浙商证券、国信证券、招商证券、申万宏源、华创证券等在内，共9家券 商对口子窖Q3净利润作出预测，除申万宏源预计口子窖Q3净利润将下滑20%外，其余券商普遍预计Q3 净利润同比增幅在0%-6%。 分产品看，今年前三季度口子窖中高档白酒均出现销售下滑。其中，公司高档产品实现营收41. ...

证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2024-046 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十二 号——酒制造》的相关规定，现将公司 2024 年第三季度主要经营数据（未经审 计）公告如下： 一、公司 2024 年第三季度主要经营情况： 1、按产品档次分类情况： 注：上述表格合计数差异系四舍五入尾差所致。 2、按销售渠道分类情况： 单位：万元币种：人民币 产品名称 2024 年 1－9 月 销售收入 2023 年 1－9 月 销售收入 增减变动幅度（%） 高档白酒 411,191.93 424,292.00 -3.09 中档白酒 4,881.47 6,720.23 -27.36 低档白酒 9,089.13 6,291.25 44.47 合计 425,162.53 437,303.48 -2.78 单位：万元币种：人民币 渠道类型 2024 年 1－9 月 销售收入 2023 年 ...