走进口子窖位于淮北市杜集区的口子产业园，这里既有传承千年的古老工艺，又有充满现代化智能制造 的探索与创新。 自2016年开工建设，历经多轮技术改造与智能化升级，目前已成为国内领先的现代化优质白酒生产基 地。 这一系统的应用，解决了润粮蒸粮、装甑出甑等传统手工难题，还实现 "糟不落地"，保障产品品质与 安全。 基于工业机器人的智能酿造设备，为产能提升和企业长期发展奠定基础。 智慧工厂，引领数字化变革口子产业园以"智慧工厂"建设为重点，大力投入数字化建设。 智能酿造机器人、全自动控制系统、自动化包装生产线等先进设备极大提升了管理效能，在白酒行业数 字化领域处于领先地位。 从原料处理到成品入库，自动化生产线、自动化立体仓储、智能酿造系统等一系列智能体系，让生产流 程基本实现全自动化与智能化。 制曲车间：从传统到现代的蜕变园区内6栋制曲大楼，12万平米的面积已全面投产。 走进制曲车间，能看到传统工艺与现代技术的更替。 过去人工踩曲，如今机械化生产取而代之，工人劳动强度降低，生产效率大幅提升。 引入全自动控制系统后，成品曲入库培养管理更科学，原料利用率也显著提高。 智能化酿造车间：传承与创新并行园区内6栋智能化酿造厂房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The key indicator of a company's strength in the fiercely competitive liquor industry is the stock of base liquor, with Kuaizi Jiao ranking among the top three in the industry due to its impressive stock of 290,000 tons [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strength and Resources - Kuaizi Jiao has a base liquor stock of 290,000 tons, showcasing its robust strength and deep heritage in the liquor industry [1]. - The company has over 15,000 fermentation tanks, including 1,690 that are over a century old, which contribute to the unique micro-ecological environment necessary for producing high-quality liquor [2]. - The company’s production capacity for 65° original liquor is nearly 40,000 tons, with a storage capacity of 300,000 tons, providing excellent conditions for aging fine liquor [2]. Group 2: Strategic Development and Innovation - Kuaizi Jiao has developed a macro development pattern centered around the Kuaizi Liquor Culture Expo Park, Kuaizi Industrial Park, and Kuaizi Industry Park, emphasizing quality and cultural heritage [1]. - The Kuaizi Liquor Culture Expo Park is designed as a 4A-level industrial tourism site, allowing visitors to experience the charm of liquor culture and traditional craftsmanship [1]. - The Kuaizi Industrial Park, operational since 2010, features modern production lines that ensure stable product quality, while the Kuaizi Industry Park focuses on smart factory technology, enhancing production capacity and promoting harmony with nature [1][2]. Group 3: Market Position and Consumer Focus - In the current liquor market, consumers increasingly prioritize product quality and cost-effectiveness, which Kuaizi Jiao addresses through its leading base liquor stock and commitment to enhancing product quality [2]. - The unique flavor profile of Kuaizi Jiao's liquor has become richer over time, reflecting the company's dedication to both tradition and innovation [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5][13]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in performance in Q3 2024, with revenues and net profits showing year-on-year decreases of 22.04% and 27.72% respectively, attributed to weak demand in the liquor market [1][3]. - The company is focusing on product iterations and has seen a rebound in contract liabilities, indicating potential for future growth despite current challenges [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts downward for 2024-2026, reflecting a cautious outlook due to weak demand recovery [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 11.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.04% year-on-year, with net profits of 3.62 billion yuan, down 27.72% [1]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 5.90 percentage points to 71.91%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% [3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 59.5 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 16.8 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [3][4]. Market and Channel Insights - The company’s sales in the domestic market remain strong, with a notable increase in the number of distributors, which rose by 88 to a total of 1,008 [2]. - The revenue from the company's liquor business in Q3 2024 was 11.72 billion yuan, with high-end liquor accounting for 97.13% of this revenue [1][2]. - The company is leveraging new product launches to enhance its market position, particularly in the Hefei market [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.3X, 13.4X, and 12.0X respectively [3][4]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 59.5 billion yuan, with a slight decline from previous estimates [4][9]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was reported at 3.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.32% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 12.53 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.30 billion yuan by 2026 [7][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to face challenges in demand recovery, leading to a cautious outlook for the next few years [3][4]. - The anticipated growth in revenue and profits is contingent on the successful launch and market acceptance of new products [2][3].

公 司 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 白酒 | | | | | ＃ investSuggestion ＃ | ＃ investSuggestion | | ＃ dyCompany ＃ 口子窖 （ 603589 ） | | 增持 ( | Change 维持 ＃ | ） | 000009 ＃ title ＃ Q3 业绩短期承压，期待夯实省内基础 | | | | | ＃ cr ...

证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2024-048 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 关于股东进行股票质押式回购交易的公告 具体情况如下： 1 | 股东名称 | 是否为控 | 本次质押数 | 质押股份 | 是否 补充 | 质押起始日 | | 质押到期日 | | 质权人 | 占实际控制人 及一致行动人 | 占公司总 | 质押融资资 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股股东 | 量（股） | 类型 | | | | | | | | 股本比例 | 金用途 | | | | | | 质押 | | | | | | 合计持股比例 | | | | 刘安省 | 是 | 2,706,400 | 无限售 | 否 | 2024 年 | 11 | 2025 年 11 | | 海通证券股 | 1.07% | 0.45% | 个人原因 | | | | | 流通股 | | 月 6 日 | | 月 6 | 日 | 份有限公司 | | | | 二、实际控制人及一致行动人的股份质押情况 重要内容提示： ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 01 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 当前价：39.27 元 口 子 窖（603589）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 收入有所承压，静待需求改善 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024年三季报，前三季度实现收入 43.6亿元，同比-1.9%，归 母净利润 13.1亿元，同比-2.8%；其中单 Q3实现收入 12.0亿元，同比-22.0%， 归母净利润 3.6 亿元，同比-27.7%。 外部需求疲软，增长有所承压。1、24Q3 居民消费信心不足，中秋和国庆双节 期间，白酒商务和宴席消费同比均有所下滑，终端拿货积极性较差，行业需求 端显著承压，造成单 Q3 收入端出现下滑。2、分产品，单 Q3 高档白酒实现收 入 11.4亿，同比-22.7%，预计兼系列新品仍处在消费者培育和市场推广之中， 贡献增量相对有限，中档/低档白酒收入增速同比-55.3%/+26.5%。3、分区域， 24 单 Q3 省内收入 9.5 亿元，同比-22.1%，主要系外部消费环境低迷，徽酒竞 争较为激烈，叠加兼系列还处在培育期，省内增速阶段性承压； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced pressure on its Q3 performance, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 at 4.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.311 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year [1][4]. - Q3 revenue was 1.195 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 22.04%, and net profit for the quarter was 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, sales revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 4.112 billion, 49 million, and 91 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.1%, -27.4%, and +44.5% [2]. - In Q3 alone, high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor sales were 1.139 billion, 130 million, and 210 million yuan, showing year-on-year changes of -22.7%, -55.3%, and +26.5% [2]. Regional Sales - Revenue from sales in Anhui province and outside the province for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.555 billion and 696 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -1.65% and -8.14% respectively [2]. - In Q3, sales revenue in Anhui and outside the province was 952 million and 221 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -22.1% and -25.6% [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 71.91%, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to pressure on high-end product sales and increased competition [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 30.28%, down 2.38 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Cash receipts from sales in Q3 were 1.426 billion yuan, an increase of 1.78% year-on-year, indicating better cash flow performance compared to revenue [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 1.62 billion and 1.68 billion yuan, representing reductions of 24% and 32% from previous estimates [4]. - The report projects an EPS of 2.70, 2.80, and 2.97 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.89%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.311 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, with total revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, down 22.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year [1]. - The high-end and mid-range liquor segments faced pressure, with revenue for high-end liquor in Q3 2024 down 22.70% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its distribution channels, with direct sales channels showing growth while wholesale channels faced challenges [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross profit margin was 74.76%, and the net profit margin was 30.05%, showing stability compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the gross profit margin decreased to 71.91%, and the net profit margin was 30.28%, impacted by an increase in taxes and fees [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.756 billion, 1.889 billion, and 2.020 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 2.02%, 7.57%, and 6.94% [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 4.112 billion, 49 million, and 91 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.09%, -27.36%, and +44.47% [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 1.139 billion, 13 million, and 21 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.70%, -55.30%, and +26.54% [1]. Channel Performance - The company reported a decline in wholesale revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.80% in Q3 2024, while direct sales revenue increased by 19.70% [1]. - The number of distributors in the province increased by 2, while the number outside the province decreased by 1, indicating a dynamic adjustment of the distribution network [1]. Market Outlook - The company is projected to have a market capitalization of 23.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2024 [2][3]. - The report indicates a stable outlook for the company's profitability despite current challenges in the high-end liquor market [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.311 billion yuan, down 2.18% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, a significant drop of 22.04% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 27.72% to 362 million yuan [2]. - The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" has received positive feedback, and the company is actively expanding its market presence outside its home province [2]. - The company's gross margin decreased in Q3 2024 due to increased promotional efforts and discounts, with a gross margin of 71.91%, down 5.90 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The establishment of a marketing center has improved channel management, and the company is focusing on maintaining healthy channel development during the industry downturn [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.311 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.89% and 2.18% respectively [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, with a net profit of 362 million yuan, marking a year-on-year decrease of 22.04% and 27.72% respectively [2]. Product and Market Development - The new product "Jian 8" was launched in April 2024 and has been well-received, contributing to a revenue of 11.39 million yuan from high-end liquor in Q3 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 22.70% [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside its home province, with revenue from outside the province reaching 2.21 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decline of 25.59% [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 74.76%, while it dropped to 71.91% in Q3 2024, impacted by increased promotional activities [2]. - The company's net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30.05%, with a slight increase to 30.28% in Q3 2024, despite the overall decline in profitability [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a rebound in profitability as market conditions improve, with projected net profits of 1.650 billion yuan, 1.735 billion yuan, and 1.851 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 14 for 2024, indicating a stable valuation in the context of expected earnings growth [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its potential for growth driven by channel adjustments and the new product line "Jian Series" [2][5][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 11.95 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.04%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.62 billion, down 27.72% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][7] - The decline in high-end liquor sales is attributed to the high base effect from the launch of the "Jian Series" last year [7] - The company's channel reforms are ongoing, with the "Jian Series" showing leading channel profitability and potential to drive future growth [2][7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 71.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90 percentage points, mainly due to the high base effect from last year's "Jian Series" product launch [7] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 30.28%, down 2.38 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's sales revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 12.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%, with sales cash receipts of RMB 14.26 billion, up 1.78% year-on-year [7] Product and Regional Breakdown - In Q3 2024, high-end/mid-range/low-end liquor sales were RMB 11.39 billion, RMB 0.13 billion, and RMB 0.21 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.70%, -55.30%, and +26.54% [7] - Regional sales in Q3 2024 were RMB 9.52 billion in the domestic market and RMB 2.21 billion in the international market, with year-on-year decreases of 22.09% and 25.59%, respectively [7] - The number of domestic and international distributors increased by 4 and 53, respectively, reaching 500 and 508 by the end of Q3 2024 [7] Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be RMB 57.21 billion, RMB 57.44 billion, and RMB 58.74 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.05%, +0.42%, and +2.26%, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 16.35 billion, RMB 16.45 billion, and RMB 16.88 billion for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.03%, +0.64%, and +2.58%, respectively [7] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 16X, 16X, and 15X, respectively [7] Industry Context - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the liquor sector [5] - The report highlights the company's potential to benefit from the overall growth of the Anhui liquor market, with ongoing channel adjustments and the "Jian Series" expected to contribute to future growth [2][7]