走进口子窖位于淮北市杜集区的口子产业园，这里既有传承千年的古老工艺，又有充满现代化智能制造 的探索与创新。 自2016年开工建设，历经多轮技术改造与智能化升级，目前已成为国内领先的现代化优质白酒生产基 地。 这一系统的应用，解决了润粮蒸粮、装甑出甑等传统手工难题，还实现 "糟不落地"，保障产品品质与 安全。 基于工业机器人的智能酿造设备，为产能提升和企业长期发展奠定基础。 智慧工厂，引领数字化变革口子产业园以"智慧工厂"建设为重点，大力投入数字化建设。 智能酿造机器人、全自动控制系统、自动化包装生产线等先进设备极大提升了管理效能，在白酒行业数 字化领域处于领先地位。 从原料处理到成品入库，自动化生产线、自动化立体仓储、智能酿造系统等一系列智能体系，让生产流 程基本实现全自动化与智能化。 制曲车间：从传统到现代的蜕变园区内6栋制曲大楼，12万平米的面积已全面投产。 走进制曲车间，能看到传统工艺与现代技术的更替。 过去人工踩曲，如今机械化生产取而代之，工人劳动强度降低，生产效率大幅提升。 引入全自动控制系统后，成品曲入库培养管理更科学，原料利用率也显著提高。 智能化酿造车间：传承与创新并行园区内6栋智能化酿造厂房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The key indicator of a company's strength in the fiercely competitive liquor industry is the stock of base liquor, with Kuaizi Jiao ranking among the top three in the industry due to its impressive stock of 290,000 tons [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strength and Resources - Kuaizi Jiao has a base liquor stock of 290,000 tons, showcasing its robust strength and deep heritage in the liquor industry [1]. - The company has over 15,000 fermentation tanks, including 1,690 that are over a century old, which contribute to the unique micro-ecological environment necessary for producing high-quality liquor [2]. - The company’s production capacity for 65° original liquor is nearly 40,000 tons, with a storage capacity of 300,000 tons, providing excellent conditions for aging fine liquor [2]. Group 2: Strategic Development and Innovation - Kuaizi Jiao has developed a macro development pattern centered around the Kuaizi Liquor Culture Expo Park, Kuaizi Industrial Park, and Kuaizi Industry Park, emphasizing quality and cultural heritage [1]. - The Kuaizi Liquor Culture Expo Park is designed as a 4A-level industrial tourism site, allowing visitors to experience the charm of liquor culture and traditional craftsmanship [1]. - The Kuaizi Industrial Park, operational since 2010, features modern production lines that ensure stable product quality, while the Kuaizi Industry Park focuses on smart factory technology, enhancing production capacity and promoting harmony with nature [1][2]. Group 3: Market Position and Consumer Focus - In the current liquor market, consumers increasingly prioritize product quality and cost-effectiveness, which Kuaizi Jiao addresses through its leading base liquor stock and commitment to enhancing product quality [2]. - The unique flavor profile of Kuaizi Jiao's liquor has become richer over time, reflecting the company's dedication to both tradition and innovation [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5][13]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in performance in Q3 2024, with revenues and net profits showing year-on-year decreases of 22.04% and 27.72% respectively, attributed to weak demand in the liquor market [1][3]. - The company is focusing on product iterations and has seen a rebound in contract liabilities, indicating potential for future growth despite current challenges [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts downward for 2024-2026, reflecting a cautious outlook due to weak demand recovery [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 11.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.04% year-on-year, with net profits of 3.62 billion yuan, down 27.72% [1]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 5.90 percentage points to 71.91%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% [3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 59.5 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 16.8 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [3][4]. Market and Channel Insights - The company’s sales in the domestic market remain strong, with a notable increase in the number of distributors, which rose by 88 to a total of 1,008 [2]. - The revenue from the company's liquor business in Q3 2024 was 11.72 billion yuan, with high-end liquor accounting for 97.13% of this revenue [1][2]. - The company is leveraging new product launches to enhance its market position, particularly in the Hefei market [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.3X, 13.4X, and 12.0X respectively [3][4]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 59.5 billion yuan, with a slight decline from previous estimates [4][9]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was reported at 3.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.32% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 12.53 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.30 billion yuan by 2026 [7][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to face challenges in demand recovery, leading to a cautious outlook for the next few years [3][4]. - The anticipated growth in revenue and profits is contingent on the successful launch and market acceptance of new products [2][3].

公 司 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 白酒 | | | | | ＃ investSuggestion ＃ | ＃ investSuggestion | | ＃ dyCompany ＃ 口子窖 （ 603589 ） | | 增持 ( | Change 维持 ＃ | ） | 000009 ＃ title ＃ Q3 业绩短期承压，期待夯实省内基础 | | | | | ＃ cr ...

证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2024-048 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 关于股东进行股票质押式回购交易的公告 具体情况如下： 1 | 股东名称 | 是否为控 | 本次质押数 | 质押股份 | 是否 补充 | 质押起始日 | | 质押到期日 | | 质权人 | 占实际控制人 及一致行动人 | 占公司总 | 质押融资资 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股股东 | 量（股） | 类型 | | | | | | | | 股本比例 | 金用途 | | | | | | 质押 | | | | | | 合计持股比例 | | | | 刘安省 | 是 | 2,706,400 | 无限售 | 否 | 2024 年 | 11 | 2025 年 11 | | 海通证券股 | 1.07% | 0.45% | 个人原因 | | | | | 流通股 | | 月 6 日 | | 月 6 | 日 | 份有限公司 | | | | 二、实际控制人及一致行动人的股份质押情况 重要内容提示： ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 01 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 当前价：39.27 元 口 子 窖（603589）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 收入有所承压，静待需求改善 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024年三季报，前三季度实现收入 43.6亿元，同比-1.9%，归 母净利润 13.1亿元，同比-2.8%；其中单 Q3实现收入 12.0亿元，同比-22.0%， 归母净利润 3.6 亿元，同比-27.7%。 外部需求疲软，增长有所承压。1、24Q3 居民消费信心不足，中秋和国庆双节 期间，白酒商务和宴席消费同比均有所下滑，终端拿货积极性较差，行业需求 端显著承压，造成单 Q3 收入端出现下滑。2、分产品，单 Q3 高档白酒实现收 入 11.4亿，同比-22.7%，预计兼系列新品仍处在消费者培育和市场推广之中， 贡献增量相对有限，中档/低档白酒收入增速同比-55.3%/+26.5%。3、分区域， 24 单 Q3 省内收入 9.5 亿元，同比-22.1%，主要系外部消费环境低迷，徽酒竞 争较为激烈，叠加兼系列还处在培育期，省内增速阶段性承压； ...

2024 年 11 月 3 日 公司研究 Q3 业绩承压，改革继续推进 ——口子窖（603589.SH）2024 年三季报点评 要点 事件：口子窖发布 2024 年三季报，公司 24 年前三季度实现总营收 43.62 亿元， 同比减少 1.89%，归母净利润 13.11 亿元，同比减少 2.81%，扣非归母净利润 12.66亿元，同比减少4.89%。其中Q3单季总营收11.95亿元，同比下滑22.04%， 归母净利润 3.62 亿元，同比下滑 27.72%，Q3 业绩表现低于此前市场预期。 24Q3 收入承压，兼 8 表现相对亮眼。三季度公司收入同比下滑 22%，需求端景 气度较弱的背景下，市场竞争进一步加剧，公司 Q3 营收表现环比一二季度明显 承压。1）分产品看，24 年前三季度高档/中档/低档白酒销售收入分别为 41.12/0.49/0.91 亿元，同比-3.1%/-27.4%/+44.5%，单三季度高档/中档/低档 白酒销售收入为 11.39/0.13/0.21 亿元，同比-22.7%/-55.3%/+26.5%。高档白 酒 Q3 面临一定压力、收入增速由正转负，兼系列产品仍处于动销培育阶段、估 计需 ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 口子窖(603589)公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 01 日 [Table_Invest]买入|维持 [Table_Title] 三季度承压，强化渠道建设 ——口子窖 2024 年三季报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件 公司公告 2024 年三季报。24Q1-3，公司实现总营收 43.62 亿元，同比1.89%，归母净利 13.11 亿元，同比-2.81%，扣非归母净利 12.66 亿元，同 比-4.89%。24Q3，公司实现总营收 11.95 亿元，同比-22.04%，归母净利 3.62 亿元，同比-27.72%，扣非归母净利 3.37 亿元，同比-32.34%。 三季度高档白酒承压，省内外收入同比下滑 1）三季度高档、中档白酒承压。24Q1-3，公司高档/中档/低档白酒收入分 别为 41.12/0.49/0.91 亿元，同比分别-3.09%/-27.36%/+44.47%。24Q3， 公司高档/中档/低档白酒收入分别为 11.39/0.13/0.21 亿元，同比分别22.70%/-55.30%/+26.54%。 ...

口子窖（603589.SH）2024 年三季报点评 Q3 短期业绩承压 轻装上阵恢复可期 2024 年 10 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 10 月 28 日发布 2024 年三季报，24 年 Q1-3 公司累计实现 营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 43.62/13.11/12.66 亿元，同比-1.89%/- 2.18%/-4.89%。其中单 24Q3 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非后归母净利润 11.95/3.62/3.37 亿元，同比-22.04%/-27.72%/-32.34%。截至 24Q3 期末合同 负债 3.55 亿元，较 23 年末减少 0.43 亿元。用"单季度营收+Δ合同负债"核算 真实营收，以抵消公司因订单确认、发货节奏等因素带来的营收扰动，24Q3 真 实营收 12.33 亿元，同比+3.61%。 ➢ "兼 8"反馈良好，省外持续招商。分产品看：24Q3 高档白酒/中档白酒/ 低 档 白 酒 分 别 实 现 营 收 11.39/0.13/0.21 亿 元 ， 同 比 -22.70%/- 55.30%/+26.54%。结构上高档占比 97%，同、环比均保持稳定。新品"兼 8" 4 月在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its potential for growth driven by channel adjustments and the new product line "Jian Series" [2][5][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 11.95 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.04%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.62 billion, down 27.72% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][7] - The decline in high-end liquor sales is attributed to the high base effect from the launch of the "Jian Series" last year [7] - The company's channel reforms are ongoing, with the "Jian Series" showing leading channel profitability and potential to drive future growth [2][7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 71.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90 percentage points, mainly due to the high base effect from last year's "Jian Series" product launch [7] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 30.28%, down 2.38 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's sales revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 12.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%, with sales cash receipts of RMB 14.26 billion, up 1.78% year-on-year [7] Product and Regional Breakdown - In Q3 2024, high-end/mid-range/low-end liquor sales were RMB 11.39 billion, RMB 0.13 billion, and RMB 0.21 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.70%, -55.30%, and +26.54% [7] - Regional sales in Q3 2024 were RMB 9.52 billion in the domestic market and RMB 2.21 billion in the international market, with year-on-year decreases of 22.09% and 25.59%, respectively [7] - The number of domestic and international distributors increased by 4 and 53, respectively, reaching 500 and 508 by the end of Q3 2024 [7] Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be RMB 57.21 billion, RMB 57.44 billion, and RMB 58.74 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.05%, +0.42%, and +2.26%, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 16.35 billion, RMB 16.45 billion, and RMB 16.88 billion for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.03%, +0.64%, and +2.58%, respectively [7] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 16X, 16X, and 15X, respectively [7] Industry Context - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the liquor sector [5] - The report highlights the company's potential to benefit from the overall growth of the Anhui liquor market, with ongoing channel adjustments and the "Jian Series" expected to contribute to future growth [2][7]