Investment Rating - The report rates multiple companies in the consumer staples sector as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - The consumer staples industry in January 2026 shows a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different segments [3][29]. - Among the eight key consumer industries tracked, four are experiencing positive growth (condiments, frozen food, soft drinks, and catering), while four are facing declines (high-end and above Baijiu, mass-market Baijiu, dairy products, and beer) [29]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (High-end and Above) - In January, the revenue for high-end Baijiu reached 47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.0%. The price pressure is significant, with expectations of over a 10% price drop throughout the year due to high inventory levels [11]. Baijiu (Mass-market and Below) - The mass-market Baijiu segment generated 22.9 billion yuan in January, down 3.0% year-on-year. Despite the decline, the segment shows resilience due to rigid demand and adaptability to consumption scenarios [13]. Beer - The beer industry reported revenues of 17 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year. The demand was affected by adverse weather and the delayed Spring Festival, leading to a cautious inventory approach by distributors [15]. Condiments - The condiment sector achieved revenues of 46.9 billion yuan in January, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The recovery in the catering channel and increased demand from small and medium-sized businesses are key drivers [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector's revenue was 43.5 billion yuan in January, down 3.3% year-on-year. The demand remains under pressure, but a potential recovery is anticipated in the coming months due to low base effects [19]. Frozen Food - The frozen food segment saw revenues of 14.99 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. The demand is supported by pre-Spring Festival stocking and favorable weather conditions [21]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry generated 96.2 billion yuan in January, with a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year. Increased promotional activities indicate heightened market competition [24]. Catering - The catering sector reported revenues of 16.2 billion yuan in January, up 2.5% year-on-year. The demand is gradually improving, particularly in small and medium-sized restaurants [26].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing significant challenges in 2025, with many companies experiencing a shift from profit to loss or a notable decline in performance due to deep industry adjustments and intense market competition [1][3]. Company Performance - JiuGuiJiu (酒鬼酒) expects a net profit loss of 33 million to 49 million yuan for 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][2]. - Shunxin Agriculture (顺鑫农业) anticipates a net profit loss of 116 million to 188 million yuan, also transitioning from profit to loss due to intense market pressure and declining sales [1][2]. - Jinzhongzi Liquor (金种子酒) projects a net profit loss of 150 million to 190 million yuan, remaining in a loss position despite a narrowing of losses compared to the previous year [3]. - Tianyoude Liquor (天佑德酒) expects a net profit of 4.21 million to 6.32 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 85% to 90% year-on-year [2][3]. - ShuiJingFang (水井坊) forecasts a net profit of 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit declining by 70% [2][3]. - KouziJiao (口子窖) anticipates a net profit of 662 million to 828 million yuan, representing a decrease of 50% to 60% year-on-year [3]. Industry Trends - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment phase influenced by macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, leading to slow recovery in core consumption scenarios [3]. - High inventory levels and weak terminal sales are common pressures affecting the industry, directly impacting company operations [3]. - Despite the current downturn, there are indications that the industry may gradually enter a recovery phase as macroeconomic conditions improve and consumer demand rebounds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor stocks experienced a significant decline, with major brands such as Tianyoude, Yanghe, and Shunxin all dropping over 5% in value, indicating a bearish trend in the sector [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianyoude Liquor saw a decrease of 5.81%, with a total market capitalization of 4.427 billion [2] - Yanghe shares fell by 5.67%, bringing its market value to 85 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 7.10% [2] - Shunxin Agriculture dropped by 5.53%, with a market cap of 11.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 2.53% [2] - Other notable declines include Kuaizijiao (-4.95%, 17.8 billion), Yilite (-4.74%, 6.658 billion), and Jianshiyuan (-4.66%, 42.1 billion) [2] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Guizhou Moutai also experienced declines of 3.93% and 1.90%, respectively, with market caps of 413.1 billion and 1.7663 trillion [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [4]. Core Insights - The liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment period, but recent positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors, along with the market-oriented transformation of Moutai, are stimulating incremental demand and driving up prices, leading to a valuation recovery [2]. - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those expected to clear inventory like Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jianshiyuan, Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Jiuye, and Jinhui Jiu [4]. Summary by Sections Market Environment - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, and policies are becoming more favorable. The liquor industry is a typical cyclical sector, with market pricing influenced by both internal demand and real estate conditions. The government has prioritized boosting domestic demand as a key task for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [4]. - The real estate market is gradually bottoming out after years of adjustment, with recent government actions aimed at stabilizing market expectations and improving conditions [4]. Moutai's Market Transformation - Moutai's market-oriented reform has sparked incremental demand, with significant attention on liquor sales during the Spring Festival. Moutai has introduced various products on its iMoutai platform, leading to a surge in online purchases and stable price performance [4]. - As of January 29, Moutai's price has increased by over 1,600 RMB, with transaction prices exceeding 1,700 RMB, indicating successful price-volume strategies [4]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with liquidity improvements and expectations likely to catalyze stock prices. The report anticipates that if prices stabilize, the pressure on stock prices will lessen, and further positive signals from policies could enhance stock performance [4]. - The report includes earnings forecasts for key liquor companies, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for Moutai from 2024 to 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to decrease from 21 to 19 [5].

最新股价：14.48元 日涨幅：+10.03% 亮点：甘肃区域性白酒（核心股）企业，拥有一定的品牌历史积淀。 酒鬼酒（000799.SZ） 白酒（核心股）板块全线飘红，多股午后涨停！消费复苏预期点燃板块热情，皇台酒业、酒鬼酒、金徽 酒、水井坊、泸州老窖、金种子酒领涨，板块整理如下： 最新股价：56.85元 皇台酒业（000995.SZ） 日涨幅：+10.00% 日涨幅：+10.01% 亮点：中国西北地区优势白酒（核心股）企业，旗下拥有"金徽"、"陇南春"两大品牌。 水井坊（600779.SH） 最新股价：41.99元 日涨幅：+10.01% 亮点：主营"水井坊"系列高端白酒（核心股），是中国知名的高端白酒品牌。 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 最新股价：124.23元 日涨幅：+10.00% 亮点：中国馥郁香型白酒（核心股）创立者，产品具有"前浓、中清、后酱"的独特风格。 金徽酒（603919.SH） 最新股价：21.54元 亮点：浓香型白酒（核心股）鼻祖，"国窖1573"是中国白酒鉴赏标准级酒品。 金种子酒（600199.SH） 最新股价：10.30元 日涨幅：+10.04% 亮点：深耕安徽地区的白酒（核心 ...

随着春节的临近，飞天茅台价格近日持续上涨。 在A股市场，贵州茅台也开始发力，1月29日一路上扬，截至收盘大涨8.61%，单日涨幅创近期新高。网友纷纷表示："这是我的茅台么？""能到1400以上真 是想不到""茅台今天变成黄金股了"。 今天，A股涨幅第一 白酒板块迎来涨停潮 今天，白酒板块午后集体上攻，走出一波新行情。截至下午收盘，板块指数暴涨近10%，位列A股板块涨幅第一。个股迎来久违的涨停潮，皇台酒业、酒鬼 酒、古井贡酒、水井坊、金徽酒、五粮液、口子窖、洋河股份舍得酒业、泸州老窖、山西汾酒等十多只个股纷纷涨停。 | 白酒 | 油气开采及服务 | 贵金属 | | --- | --- | --- | | 9.68% | 8.18% | 8.04% | | 金种子酒 10.04% | 科力股份 29.99% | 晓程科技 19.52% | | 文化传媒 | 保险 | 饮料制造 | | 3.89% | 3.44% | 2.89% | | 因赛集团 20.00% | 中国平安 5.02% | 会稽山 10.00% | | V | 白酒 2810.11 9.68% | | | 涨幅榜 | 盘口 跌幅榜 | 新闻 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor sector experienced a significant surge, with the liquor ETF rising by 10.08% and the China Securities Liquor Index increasing by 9.79% on January 29, driven by macroeconomic expectations and seasonal factors related to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - 20 liquor companies saw stock price increases, with 18 reaching the daily limit, including notable gains from Kweichow Moutai (8.61% increase) and others like Jinzhongzi Liquor and Huangtai Liquor, both around 10% [1][2]. - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has been rising, surpassing 1600 yuan, indicating a market recovery signal as the product remains sold out on official platforms [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Experts attribute the price increase to a combination of Moutai's proactive price control and seasonal demand, suggesting that the liquor sector is a target for capital investment due to its cyclical nature [4]. - The overall industry is under pressure, with several companies forecasting significant declines in net profit, indicating a challenging competitive landscape and increased inventory issues [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the proactive inventory adjustments by liquor manufacturers and the stabilization of high-end liquor prices could lead to a healthier market development [5]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost demand, with the liquor sector seen as a value opportunity for investors, despite the need for cautious optimism regarding long-term trends [5].

相关行业： 高端白酒（核心股）：高端白酒凭借深厚的品牌壁垒和稳定的消费群体，在行业调整期展现出更强的抗 风险能力。随着春节商务宴请、礼品馈赠等消费场景复苏，高端白酒批价回升、动销向好，相关龙头企 业将率先受益于行业复苏红利，业绩弹性值得期待。 区域白酒（核心股）：区域白酒企业依托本地消费市场优势，积极调整渠道策略、优化产品结构，叠加 各地产区政策扶持，有望在存量竞争中实现突围。部分区域酒企推出亲民酒、口粮酒等产品，贴合大众 消费需求，将进一步巩固本地市场份额，打开成长空间。 午后，白酒（核心股）板块持续拉升，板块内8只个股涨停，泸州老窖、酒鬼酒、皇台酒业、金种子 酒、舍得酒业、水井坊、金徽酒、流金科技纷纷涨停，古井贡酒、五粮液、顺鑫农业、洋河股份、天佑 德酒、古越龙山、伊力特、贵州茅台、老白干酒、山西汾酒、会稽山、迎驾贡酒、今世缘、口子窖涨超 5%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 相关 | 最新价 | रे | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 涨跌幅号 | | 600199 | 金种子酒 | 详情 数据 股吧 | 10.30 | 10.04% | | 000995 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月28日，捷众科技发布公告称，公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为6700万 元至8200万元，同比增长7.18%至31.18%。 ...

证券之星消息，1月28日白酒板块较上一交易日下跌0.79%，*ST岩石领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4151.24，上涨0.27%。深证成指报收于14342.9，上涨0.09%。白酒板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日白酒板块主力资金净流出12.38亿元，游资资金净流入13.56亿元，散户资金净流 出1.18亿元。白酒板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000568 泸州老窖 | | 1.07 Z | 6.89% | -6686.18万 | -4.29% | -4056.45万 | -2.60% | | 600809 山西汾酒 | | 7464.03万 | 5.95% | 1.05亿 | 8.38% | -1.80亿 | -14.33% | | 000995 | 皇台酒业 | 2633.56万 | 12.95% | -253.88万 | -1.25% | -2379.67万 ...