Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 27.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 742 million yuan, down 43.4% year-on-year [6] - The Q3 2025 revenue was 643 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 46.2%, with net profit dropping 92.6% to 27 million yuan [6] - The report indicates a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to external demand pressures, with expected net profits of 932 million, 1.005 billion, and 1.098 billion yuan respectively [6] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 21x, 19x, and 18x, which are still within a reasonable range compared to comparable regional liquor companies [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 4.008 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 33.4% [5] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 72.7% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 8.8% [5] - The company’s Q3 2025 gross margin was reported at 62.7%, down 9.25 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.2%, a decrease of 26.1 percentage points [6] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was negative 0.07 million yuan, a significant drop from 3.55 million yuan in the same period last year [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [20]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 3.17 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year, and net profit at 740 million yuan, down 43.4% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 640 million yuan, down 46.2%, and net profit was 30 million yuan, down 92.5% [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and channel restructuring to alleviate pressure, with a notable increase in direct sales revenue while wholesale revenue declined significantly [6]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence by upgrading its product lines and expanding into lower-tier markets, while also addressing competitive pressures in the industry [6]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 6.015 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9%. For 2025E, revenue is expected to drop to 4.095 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 31.9% [2]. - The net profit for 2024A is estimated at 1.655 billion yuan, with a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year. The forecast for 2025E shows a further decline to 817 million yuan, down 50.7% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is projected at 1.37 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 [2]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of October 28, 2025, was 32.67 yuan, with a target price set at 40 yuan, suggesting potential upside [2]. - The company has experienced a significant drop in sales and profitability, with Q3 sales receipts at 730 million yuan, down 48.9% year-on-year [6]. Strategic Focus - The company is actively restructuring its distribution channels and increasing marketing expenditures to support its long-term operational goals, despite facing short-term challenges [6]. - The focus on "market upgrade, structural upgrade, and brand upgrade" is intended to strengthen the company's market position and ensure sustainable growth [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of political pressures, which may impact the macroeconomic narrative and the valuation of the US dollar [2] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various companies, focusing on their financial performance and strategic initiatives [3][4][5][6][7][8][10][11][12][17][19][20][22][24][25][26][27][28][30][31] Company Summaries - **Lihigh Food (300973 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 3.14 billion and net profit of 250 million for the first three quarters of 2025, showing year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 22.0% respectively. Despite pressure on gross margins due to rising palm oil prices, effective cost control has helped maintain profitability [3] - **Red Flag Chain (002697 CH, Accumulate)**: The company achieved revenue of 7.11 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%. The net profit was 383 million, down 1.9% year-on-year. The company is focusing on internal management and cost reduction to improve profitability [4] - **Kanglong Chemical (300759 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 10.086 billion and adjusted net profit of 1.227 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.4% and 10.8% respectively. The company has raised its revenue growth guidance for 2025 from 10-15% to 12-16% [5] - **Zhou Dasheng (002867 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 6.772 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a decline of 37.3% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 3.1%. The growth in net profit is attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin products [6] - **Aimeike (300896 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 566 million in Q3 2025, down 21.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 304 million, down 34.6%. The company is focusing on expanding its product pipeline and international market presence [7] - **Leixin Technology (688018 CH, Accumulate)**: The company achieved revenue of 1.912 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.97%. Despite a slight decline in Q3 revenue, the company is expanding its market presence in high-performance SoC [8] - **Zhongke Chuangda (300496 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 5.148 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.34%. The growth is driven by the AIOT sector [9] - **Yihua (301029 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 736 million in Q3 2025, up 17.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 136 million, up 28.59%. The growth is attributed to the continued demand in lithium battery and automotive sectors [10] - **Huazhi Technology (688281 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 285 million in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.85%. The company is focusing on its leading position in stealth materials [11] - **Chengdu Bank (601838 CH, Buy)**: The bank reported a net profit of 5.0% and revenue growth of 3.0% for the first nine months of 2025, indicating stable performance despite non-interest income fluctuations [12] - **Yun Tianhua (600096 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 12.6 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, but net profit increased by 24%. The company benefits from strong export demand for phosphate products [13] - **Funi Co., Ltd. (600483 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 3.666 billion in Q3 2025, down 4.04% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 11.53%. The company is focusing on its project reserves and renewable energy contributions [14] - **Hongcheng Environment (600461 CH, Buy)**: The company reported revenue of 1.738 billion in Q3 2025, up 2.41% year-on-year, with net profit of 324 million, reflecting stable operational performance [15] - **Op Lighting (603515 CH, Accumulate)**: The company reported revenue of 1.692 billion in Q3 2025, down 0.59% year-on-year, with net profit of 208 million, down 12.22%. The company is expected to recover as the housing market stabilizes [16] Industry Insights - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by political pressures on the Federal Reserve, which may affect market confidence and asset valuations [2] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing mixed performance, with some companies managing to maintain profitability through cost control and strategic initiatives [3][4][5][6] - The healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors are showing resilience, with companies reporting steady revenue growth and improved cash flow [7][8][9] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and IoT, is witnessing significant growth, driven by increased demand for advanced solutions [10][11][12] - The banking sector is showing stable performance, with banks managing to maintain profitability despite fluctuations in non-interest income [13][14] - The energy sector is focusing on renewable energy projects, with companies looking to expand their project reserves and improve operational efficiency [15][16]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in high-end liquor sales revenue, which amounted to 2.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.98% [1] - Mid-range liquor revenue also fell by 15.38% to 41 million yuan, while low-end liquor revenue increased by 25.09% to 114 million yuan [1] - Overall revenue for the company decreased by 26.70% compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 643 million yuan, representing a substantial decline of 46.23% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was only 27 million yuan, down 92.55% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, cumulative revenue was 3.174 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.24% year-on-year, while cumulative net profit was 742 million yuan, down 43.39% year-on-year [1] Market Performance - Both core markets, including the domestic market in Anhui province and external markets, experienced declines in revenue [1] - Revenue from the domestic market decreased by 27.24% year-on-year, while revenue from external markets fell by 23.93% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai (603589.SH) reported a decline in institutional investor holdings in its third-quarter report for 2025, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards the company [1] Institutional Holdings - As of October 28, 2025, four institutional investors disclosed holdings in Kweichow Moutai A-shares, totaling 48.0025 million shares, which represents 8.03% of the company's total share capital [1] - The total institutional holding percentage decreased by 1.97 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Public Fund Holdings - Three public funds increased their holdings during this period, including the liquor ETF, Longcheng Quantitative Selected Stock A, and the China Securities Liquor Index A, with an increase in holding percentage of 0.65% [1] - One public fund, Xingzheng Global Xinyue Mixed A, reported a decrease in holdings, with a reduction percentage of 0.42% [1] - A total of 162 public funds did not disclose their holdings this quarter, including notable funds such as Southern CSI 500 ETF, Huatai-PineBridge CSI Major Consumption ETF, and others [1]

证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 公司董事会及董事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人徐进、主管会计工作负责人范博及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）李伟保证季度报告中财 务信息的真实、准确、完整。 第三季度财务报表是否经审计 □是√否 一、主要财务数据 （一）主要会计数据和财务指标 单位：元 币种：人民币 ■ 注："本报告期"指本季度初至本季度末3个月期间，下同。 （二）非经常性损益项目和金额 √适用 □不适用 单位:元 币种:人民币 ■ 对公司将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号一一非经常性损益》未列举的项目认定为非 经常性损益项目且金额重大的，以及将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号一一非经常性 损益》中列举的非经常性损益项目界定为经常性损益的项目，应说明原因。 □适用 √不适用 （三）主要会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Kuozi Jiao (603589.SH), known as "Hui Jiu Lao San," has significantly deteriorated in Q3, with revenue nearly halved and net profit plummeting over 90%, marking the worst quarterly performance since its listing [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Kuozi Jiao reported revenue of 3.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 27.24%, and a net profit of 742 million yuan, down 43.39% [1] - Q3 alone saw revenue of 643 million yuan, a decrease of 46.23%, and a net profit of 26.97 million yuan, down 92.55% [1] - The operating cash flow was negative at -390 million yuan, a decline of 208.91% year-on-year [1] Sales Breakdown - Sales of mid-to-high-end liquor products have declined across the board, with high-end product revenue falling by 28% to 2.961 billion yuan, mid-range products down 15.38% to 41.30 million yuan, while low-end products saw a 25% increase to 114 million yuan [2] - The overall gross margin dropped to approximately 71% due to the significant decline in mid-to-high-end liquor sales [2] Market Performance - Both domestic and external markets experienced revenue declines, with domestic sales at approximately 2.587 billion yuan (down 27.24%) and external sales at 530 million yuan (down about 23.93%) [2] - Despite a net increase of 55 and 47 distributors in domestic and external markets respectively, sales continued to decline [2] Shareholder Activity - In Q3, the company's actual controller, Liu Ansheng, reduced his holdings by 10 million shares, while the China Securities White Wine Index Fund increased its holdings [3] - As of the end of September, the total shares held by the top ten shareholders slightly decreased compared to the end of June [3]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for liquor consumption is declining, significantly impacting regional liquor companies' financial reports, particularly Kuozi Jiao, which reported substantial revenue and profit declines in Q3 2025 [1]. Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao's Q3 revenue was 643 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.23%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.97 million yuan, down 92.55% [2]. - For the first three quarters, Kuozi Jiao's revenue decreased by 27%, and net profit fell by 43%, indicating a potential annual revenue drop below 5 billion yuan [1][2]. Product Sales Breakdown - High-end liquor sales revenue for Kuozi Jiao was 2.96 billion yuan, down nearly 28% year-on-year, while mid-range liquor also saw accelerated declines [3]. - In contrast, low-end liquor sales increased by 25% year-on-year, with revenue exceeding 45 million yuan in Q3, marking it as the only product category with growth [3]. Market Position and Competition - Kuozi Jiao's wholesale and agency income dropped nearly 30% due to reduced channel purchases, highlighting the challenging market environment [3]. - Compared to competitors like Gujing Gongjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which reported revenues of over 13.8 billion yuan and 3.1 billion yuan respectively in the first half of the year, Kuozi Jiao faces significant challenges in reversing its current situation [4].

Core Insights - The demand for liquor consumption is declining, significantly impacting regional liquor companies' financial reports [1] - Kuozi Jiao's third-quarter revenue dropped by 46.23% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 92.55% [1][2] - The company is facing challenges in maintaining profitability, with a projected annual revenue likely to fall below 5 billion [3] Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao reported third-quarter revenue of 643 million, marking a significant decline [1] - The company's net profit for the third quarter was approximately 26.97 million, a drastic drop compared to the previous year [1][2] - For the first three quarters, revenue decreased by 27% and net profit by 43% [3] Sales Breakdown - High-end liquor sales revenue fell by nearly 28% to 2.96 billion in the first three quarters [5] - Mid-range liquor revenue also experienced accelerated declines [5] - The wholesale and agency revenue dropped by nearly 30% in the first three quarters due to reduced channel purchases [6] Strategic Adjustments - In response to the challenging market, Kuozi Jiao increased the distribution of low-end liquor, achieving a revenue growth of 25% in this segment [6] - To maintain profitability above 1 billion, the company needs to halt the downward trend in the fourth quarter [6] Competitive Landscape - Comparatively, other companies like Guqingong and Yingjia Gongjiu have reported significantly higher revenues and profits, making it difficult for Kuozi Jiao to reverse its current situation [6]

Core Insights - The latest "Hurun Rich List" for 2025 was released, showing a total wealth of 203 billion yuan among 11 individuals from the liquor industry, with only two seeing an increase in their rankings compared to last year [1][2]. Group 1: Wealth and Rankings - Wang Junlin, with a wealth of 59.5 billion yuan, ranks 95th, making him the highest-ranked liquor entrepreneur [3]. - Wu Xiangdong, with 37 billion yuan, ranks 163rd, experiencing a drop of 6 places due to a significant decline in revenue for his companies [3]. - Wu Shaoxun, with 17.5 billion yuan, ranks 370th, falling 64 places as his company's products faced poor sales despite initial popularity [3]. - Liu Xiaodong and Cai Kaiyun are the only two entrepreneurs who improved their rankings, with Liu at 528th (up 128 places) and Cai at 847th (up 28 places) [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, leading to significant changes in consumption patterns and a majority of entrepreneurs experiencing declines in their rankings [2][3]. - Kuozi Jiao's Xu Jin, with 6 billion yuan, ranks 1168th, dropping 293 places due to poor market performance [3][4]. - Kuozi Jiao reported a continued decline in its third-quarter results, with revenue down 27.24% and net profit down 43.39% year-on-year [4].