证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2025-036 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 关于完成工商变更登记并换发营业执照的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年8月19日召开了 第五届董事会第十一次会议、9月5日召开了2025年第一次临时股东会，审议通过 了《关于取消监事会、减少注册资本并修订<安徽口子酒业股份有限公司章程> 部分条款的议案》，同意公司因回购注销部分限制性股票事宜对公司注册资本及 股份总数进行变更。公司注册资本由600,000,000元变更为598,119,472元，公司 股份总数由600,000,000股变更为598,119,472股。同意对《公司章程》相应条款 进行修订。具体内容详见公司在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）及指定 媒体上披露的《关于取消监事会、减少注册资本并修订<公司章程>部分条款及修 订公司部分治理制度的公告》（公告编号：2025-025）。 公司已于2025年7月23日在中国证券登记结算有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing a bleak outlook, with multiple securities firms predicting significant profit declines for major companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, by Q3 2025, indicating a severe downturn compared to previous optimistic expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Predictions - Analysts from various securities firms, including Zhongyou Securities and Guangfa Securities, predict that major liquor companies may experience profit declines of up to 30% or more, with Wuliangye's profits potentially halving [1][3]. - Moutai is expected to see near-zero profit growth, while Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujinggongjiu are projected to face around a 20% profit decline [1][4]. - The overall liquor industry is anticipated to face a more than 20% decline in sales volume due to external demand shocks [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The retail sales growth of consumer goods has significantly slowed, particularly in the catering sector, which has nearly stagnated, directly impacting liquor consumption [1][8]. - The average turnover days for inventory in the industry are high, indicating a pressing need for companies to manage inventory effectively amid changing consumer demand [10]. Group 3: Company Responses - Companies are adopting pragmatic strategies to alleviate channel pressure, including adjusting inventory and reducing expenses to enhance operational efficiency [6][9]. - Wuliangye acknowledged the challenges in the market during the recent holiday season but emphasized that official data should be awaited for a clearer picture [3]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior towards more rational consumption, with increased sensitivity to prices and a decline in the enthusiasm for high-priced products [9]. - The demand is shifting from traditional business banquets to more casual settings, such as gatherings with friends and family, prompting companies to adjust their product offerings [9][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term profit declines, the fundamentals of the liquor industry, especially for leading companies, remain intact, with a potential shift towards quality-focused growth rather than mere scale expansion [11]. - The upcoming Q3 reports are expected to provide critical insights into how companies are navigating the current challenges and adapting to market changes [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the liquor sector, indicating a bottoming out phase with potential for recovery in the future [2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with an expected drop of over 20% in overall sales volume. However, there are signs of month-on-month improvement, and the decline is narrowing [5][9]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing strong recovery in payment collection, with over 80% collection rates, while regional brands are performing adequately [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality liquor brands that are likely to recover faster, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, while also highlighting the need to monitor companies undergoing significant changes [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Q3 Accelerated Decline and Bottoming Out - The liquor sector is facing a 20%+ decline in sales due to external demand shocks, with a gradual improvement expected in the coming months [5][9]. - High-end liquor brands are expected to show resilience, with Moutai projected to achieve a 3% revenue growth in Q3, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 20% revenue decline [10][11]. - The report indicates that companies are adjusting their strategies to reduce channel pressure and improve operational efficiency [9][10]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Overall Demand Weakness, Structural Resilience - The consumer goods sector is experiencing overall weak demand, but segments like snacks and beverages are showing higher resilience [17][24]. - The report notes that while the demand for dairy and beer remains stable, the restaurant supply chain is still under pressure [17][24]. - Raw material prices are generally declining, which may provide some cost relief to companies in the sector [24][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Liquor Bottoming Catalysts and Selective Consumer Goods Trends - The report suggests focusing on liquor companies that are at the bottom of their cycles, with Moutai and Fenjiu being primary recommendations [6][9]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential of snack and beverage companies, recommending brands that are well-positioned to benefit from current trends [6][17].

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a slight increase of 0.14% on October 21, with *ST Rock leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Stock Performance Summary - *ST Rock (600696) closed at 5.84, with a rise of 5.04% and a trading volume of 47,600 shares, totaling 27.11 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Tianyoude Liquor (002646) at 9.80, up 1.34%, and Qingdao Wenzhou (000995) at 13.97, up 1.31% [1] - Major stocks like Luzhou Laojiao (000568) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) saw minor increases of 0.80% and 0.30%, respectively, with Moutai's closing price at 1462.26 and a trading volume of 25,400 shares, totaling 3.73 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 12.19 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 15.9 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 172 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Kweichow Moutai (600519) had a significant net inflow of 1.26 billion yuan from major funds, while it faced a net outflow of 1.26 billion yuan from speculative funds [3] - Wuliangye (000858) reported a net inflow of 29.16 million yuan from major funds, but a net outflow of 39.27 million yuan from retail investors [3] - *ST Rock (600696) showed a net inflow of 6.38 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors withdrew 5.52 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - The 17th "Huazun Cup" China Liquor Brand Value Award Ceremony was held in Shenzhen, where the brand value report for 2025 was released, highlighting the achievements of the Anhui Kouzi Liquor Co., Ltd. with its Kouzi Jiao brand valued at 79.764 billion yuan, marking a new high and solidifying its position in the industry [1] - Kouzi Jiao was awarded the titles of "2025 Leading Brand of Chinese Mixed Aroma High-end Baijiu" and "2025 Chinese Baijiu Craftsmanship Quality Model Brand," further validating its brand strength [1] Industry Overview - The "Huazun Cup" is recognized as the "Olympics of the Chinese liquor industry," being the first and only authoritative platform focused on liquor brand value assessment in China [1] - The evaluation methodology employs a comprehensive factor measurement algorithm, considering brand strength, market performance, consumer reputation, and expert opinions, establishing itself as a credible industry assessment tool [1] Company Achievements - Kouzi Liquor has been recognized as a key national liquor enterprise, continuously optimizing production capacity and processes, leading to significant brand strength enhancement [3] - The company has received multiple honors, including "National Geographical Indication Product," "Chinese Time-honored Brand," and "China Famous Trademark," showcasing its commitment to quality and brand development [3] - The unique "One-step Mixed Aroma Process" and the combination of various grains and flavors have contributed to its distinctive taste, appealing to high-end Baijiu consumers [3] Future Outlook - The brand's value nearing 80 billion yuan and the receipt of two industry awards serve as authoritative recognition of its past achievements and empower its future development [4] - Kouzi Liquor aims to uphold its craftsmanship spirit, deepen quality connotations, and strengthen brand building to lead the development trend of Chinese mixed aroma Baijiu [4]

Company Overview - Kuozi Jiao, established on December 26, 2002, and listed on June 29, 2015, is located in Huai Bei City, Anhui Province, and primarily engages in the production and sales of liquor [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes high-end liquor at 94.22%, low-end liquor at 2.69%, other (supplementary) at 1.81%, and mid-range liquor at 1.28% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Kuozi Jiao reported operating revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 6.919 billion yuan, with 2.577 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Market Activity - As of October 14, Kuozi Jiao's stock price increased by 2.01% to 33.51 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 178 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.90%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 20.043 billion yuan [1] - The stock has experienced a decline of 11.68% year-to-date, with a slight decrease of 0.33% over the last five trading days and a 2.79% drop over the past 20 days [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Kuozi Jiao had 71,900 shareholders, a decrease of 6.70% from the previous period, with an average of 8,313 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 7.18% [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the China Securities White Wine Index A (161725) ranks as the third-largest shareholder, holding 29.6216 million shares, an increase of 3.8228 million shares from the previous period [3] Capital Flow - In terms of capital flow on October 14, there was a net inflow of 4.4402 million yuan from main funds, with large orders accounting for 17.47% of purchases and 13.19% of sales [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][4][59] Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year, with inventory increasing by 10-20% [3][7] - The industry is still in a bottoming phase, and patience is required for potential investment opportunities [3][7] - The report highlights that the stock price turning point may occur before the fundamental turning point, suggesting a need for cautious observation [3][7] Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report anticipates a significant decline in liquor demand, with banquet performance below expectations and gift demand decreasing [3][7] - The current high inventory levels in channels will require time to digest, and the consumption scenarios are still recovering, leading to weak demand [3][7] - Key recommendations include maintaining patience for high-dividend stocks and waiting for potential buying opportunities in quality stocks [3][7] Brand Performance - Moutai is performing the best, while Wuliangye is trading volume for price [8][9] - Moutai's expected sales decline is in single digits, with prices slightly down to around 1780-1835 yuan [8] - Wuliangye's sales are expected to drop by about 15%, with current prices around 810-830 yuan [8] - Guojiao 1573 is controlling inventory to maintain prices, with expected sales declines of 20-30% [8][9] Regional Liquor Situation - Feedback from various regions indicates a general decline in sales, with specific brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing varying performance [11][19] - The report notes that the business and banquet consumption scenarios are under pressure, with overall sales expected to decline by 30-25% during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [44][49] - The report emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of inventory levels and sales performance across different brands and regions [11][19] Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the food and beverage sector, highlighting projected net profits and PE ratios for companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [53]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival Gala, sponsored exclusively by Kuaizi Jiao, aims to create a cultural celebration that combines audiovisual enjoyment with deep-rooted hometown sentiments, featuring prominent artists and a nostalgic reunion of the "Super Big Winner" production team [1][6][20]. Group 1: Event Overview - The gala took place on September 27, 2025, in Hefei, showcasing a blend of music and cultural themes related to the Mid-Autumn Festival [1]. - The event featured performances from notable artists such as Li Yuchun, Wang Feng, and Gu Juji, who sang classic and innovative songs related to themes of the moon, longing, and hometown [7][15]. Group 2: Brand and Cultural Significance - Kuaizi Jiao, as a key player in the Chinese liquor industry, embodies the essence of Anhui culture, with its unique "Jianxiang" flavor deeply embedded in the local community's identity [4][17]. - The theme of the gala, "Jianxiang Invites the Moon, Hometown Wine Talks Reunion," effectively connects the brand's unique product characteristics with the cultural significance of the Mid-Autumn Festival [4][18]. Group 3: Emotional Connection - For many Anhui residents, Kuaizi Jiao represents more than just a beverage; it symbolizes hometown flavors and cherished memories of gatherings with family and friends [6][20]. - The gala serves as a heartfelt tribute to Anhui, allowing people to celebrate their roots and share a drink that evokes nostalgia and warmth [6][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.53 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 720 million yuan, down 24.63% [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 720 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 48.48%, with a net profit of 110 million yuan, down 70.91% [1] - The company is focusing on three upgrades: market upgrade, structural upgrade, and brand upgrade, while actively adjusting tactical approaches based on market conditions [1] - The product structure is under pressure, particularly in the domestic market, which saw a significant decline in Q2 [1] - Profitability has decreased, with an increase in management expenses [1] - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to -23% for 2025, 2% for 2026, and 4% for 2027, with net profit growth estimates adjusted to -24% for 2025, and 6% for both 2026 and 2027 [1][2] - The stock price is expected to recover before the fundamentals, hence the "Buy" rating is maintained [1] Financial Summary - For 2024, the projected revenue is 6.015 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.89%. For 2025, it is expected to drop to 4.631 billion yuan, a decrease of 23%, followed by a recovery to 4.724 billion yuan in 2026 and 4.913 billion yuan in 2027 [2] - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 1.655 billion yuan, with a decrease of 3.83%. The net profit is expected to decline to 1.265 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a slight recovery in the subsequent years [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.76 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 2.11 yuan in 2025, and gradually increasing to 2.36 yuan by 2027 [2]

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.72% on September 24, with Luzhou Laojiao leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Luzhou Laojiao (code: 000568) closed at 131.91, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 62,600 and a transaction value of 826 million [2] - Kweichow Moutai (code: 600519) closed at 1442.00, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 30,700 and a transaction value of 4.443 billion [2] - Yanghe Brewery (code: 002304) closed at 69.11, down 0.30%, with a trading volume of 31,300 and a transaction value of 217 million [2] - Wuliangye (code: 000858) closed at 122.37, up 0.15%, with a trading volume of 130,600 and a transaction value of 1.598 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 394 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 93.998 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among individual stocks, with some stocks like Jinhuijiu (code: 600809) showing a net inflow of 369.30 million from retail investors [3]