证券研究报告 口子窖 (603589 CH) 公司公告 2025 年半年报，25H1 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 25.3/7.2/7.0 亿， 同比-20.1%/-24.6%/-24.9%；25Q2 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 7.2/1.0/0.9 亿，同比-48.5%/-70.9%/-73.4%。上半年受外部需求萎缩影响，公司二季度 业绩显著承压，经营压力在报表端充分体现。公司保持战略定力，以长期健 康发展为重，积极调整战术打法。预计公司将持续推进兼系列产品的市场培 育，聚焦理顺营销体系；期待外部需求改善，渠道信心逐步恢复，迎来内外 共振，维持"增持"评级。 压力释放，静待改善 2025 年 8 月 20 日│中国内地 饮料 营销改革深入，25Q2 省内竞争加剧 分 产 品 ， 25H1 高 档 / 中 档 / 低档白 酒营收 23.8/0.3/0.7 亿 元 ， 同 比 -20%/-11%/-3%，25Q2 同比-50%/-8%/+8%，预计大众价位百元价位产品 表现相对突出。分区域，25H1 安徽省内/省外营收 21.0/3.8 亿元，同比 -19%/-19%，25Q2 安徽省内/省外营收 5.2/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance shows significant pressure, with revenue and net profit declining by 20.1% and 24.6% year-on-year, respectively. The Q2 results reflect a substantial impact from the "ban on alcohol" policy in Anhui, leading to a near halving of demand [1][6]. - The company has chosen to limit shipments to accurately reflect market conditions and maintain healthy channel relationships. There is an expectation for demand recovery in Q3, contingent on the implementation of policies [1][6]. - Due to external demand pressures, the earnings forecast has been revised downwards, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.7, 1.8, and 1.9 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a 20x PE for 2025 [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - For H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.1% and 24.6% respectively [1][6]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 721 million yuan, down 48.5% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 70.9% [6][7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 20.9 billion yuan, with a current share price of 35.01 yuan and a PB ratio of 2.0 for 2025 [3][14]. Performance Analysis - The report indicates a significant decline in high-end liquor sales, with Q2 2025 revenue from high-end liquor at 660 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year. Mid-range and low-end liquor saw smaller declines of 7.7% and 7.5%, respectively [6][7]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 73.1%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with high-end liquor gross margin at 75.0% [6][7]. - The company has reduced promotional and advertising expenditures, leading to a decline in sales and management expense ratios [6][7].

Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 698 million yuan, a decline of 24.90% year-on-year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -383 million yuan, compared to 39.258 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] Quarterly Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company's revenue fell by 48.48% to 721 million yuan year-on-year [2] - The net profit for the second quarter decreased by 70.91% to 105 million yuan year-on-year [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items in the second quarter dropped by 73.41% to 91.26 million yuan year-on-year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities in the second quarter was -137 million yuan, compared to 108 million yuan in the same period last year [2] Industry Context - The white liquor industry is experiencing market differentiation and intensified channel changes, leading to continuous production decline and slowed sales growth [3] - The overall industry is under pressure, with decreased demand, sluggish sales, and high inventory becoming the norm [3] - The company's direct sales (including group purchases) revenue increased by 44.57% year-on-year, but total sales revenue decreased by 19.30% due to a decline in wholesale and agency income [3] - The company is focusing on three core e-commerce channels: JD.com, Tmall, and Douyin, enhancing its e-commerce operational capabilities and expanding marketing through digitalization [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Kouzi Jiao (603589.SH) has reported an increase in institutional investor holdings as of August 19, 2025, with a total of 40.1 million shares held, representing 6.68% of the company's total equity [1] - Four public funds have increased their holdings compared to the previous period, including Xingzheng Global Xinyue Mixed A, China Merchants CSI Liquor Index A, Great Wall Quantitative Selected Stocks A, and Manulife Consumer Dividend Index A, with an increase in holdings accounting for 1.50% [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, along with four other departments, has issued a notice that starting from September 1, individuals can withdraw personal pensions under three new conditions: suffering from major illnesses, receiving unemployment insurance, and receiving minimum living security. Participants can withdraw their pensions monthly, in installments, or as a lump sum [2] - Xiaomi Group reported its Q2 financial results, achieving record highs in several key metrics: revenue of 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%; adjusted net profit of 10.8 billion yuan, a significant increase of 75.4%; revenue from the smartphone and AIoT segment reached 94.7 billion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year. The smartphone business generated 45.5 billion yuan, with positive growth for eight consecutive quarters. The automotive segment reported revenue of 21.3 billion yuan, with operating losses narrowing to 300 million yuan, and is expected to achieve profitability in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance reported that in July, the national general public budget revenue reached 202.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the highest growth rate this year. Tax revenue was 180.18 billion yuan, growing by 5%. For the first seven months of the year, total revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3] - The People's Bank of China has added 100 billion yuan in re-lending to support agriculture and small businesses, encouraging financial institutions to increase credit support for affected areas and small enterprises [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 in July was 17.8%, while the rate for those aged 25-29 was 6.9%, and for those aged 30-59 was 3.9% [3] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a narrow fluctuation with all three major indices closing lower, while the North Star 50 index reached a new historical high. The consumer electronics, CPO, and liquor sectors led the gains, while insurance, PEEK materials, and lithography machine concepts saw notable adjustments [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.21%, closing at 25,122.9 points, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down 0.67%. Southbound funds saw a significant net inflow of 18.573 billion Hong Kong dollars [6] - The margin financing balance in the A-share market exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase and the largest single-day growth in 2024. This reflects a growing bullish sentiment in the market [7] Group 4 - Xpeng Motors reported Q2 total revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3%, with an adjusted net loss of 390 million yuan, down from a loss of 1.22 billion yuan in the same period last year. The company expects Q3 vehicle deliveries to reach between 113,000 and 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 142.8% to 153.6% [8] - Pop Mart's revenue and net profit for the first half of the year exceeded the total for the previous year, with revenue of 13.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kuaizi Jiao, reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting the intensified competition and challenges within the Chinese liquor market [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kuaizi Jiao achieved operating revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 711 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [1]. - High-end liquor revenue was 2.385 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 96% of total liquor revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 19.80% [1]. Sales Channels - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a significant drop in the wholesale and agency channel, which generated 2.352 billion yuan, representing about 95% of channel revenue [1]. - Direct sales, including group purchases, showed good growth despite their small proportion in total sales [1]. Regional Sales - Revenue from the domestic market was 2.1 billion yuan, down 19.31% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 384 million yuan, a decrease of 19.24% [2]. Market Strategy - Kuaizi Jiao plans to accelerate the construction of its Shanghai marketing center and enhance its market presence in key areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [3]. - The company aims to support its distributors through targeted visits and management improvements to enhance their market-building capabilities [3]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces increasing competition from numerous liquor producers in the Huaihe River basin and other regions, which has led to a challenging market environment characterized by low demand and high inventory levels [3]. - Kuaizi Jiao's brand influence and marketing effectiveness are under scrutiny, especially after being removed from major indices like the SSE 180 Index and MSCI China Index in 2024 [4]. Future Goals - In early 2024, Kuaizi Jiao set a three-year development goal to reach a revenue target of 10 billion yuan, although stabilizing high-end liquor sales is currently prioritized [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company has conducted its fifth supervisory board and board meetings, approving the 2025 semi-annual report and related proposals, including the cancellation of the supervisory board and capital reduction, which will be submitted for shareholder approval [4][10][70]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company is named Anhui Kouzi Liquor Co., Ltd. and is publicly traded under the stock code 603589 [2]. - The company has confirmed the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of its announcements and reports, taking legal responsibility for any misrepresentation [2][10]. Group 2: Financial Data - The company reported a total fundraising amount of 960 million RMB from its initial public offering, with a net amount of approximately 891.37 million RMB after deducting issuance costs [56]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company has invested approximately 947.94 million RMB in fundraising projects, with no new investments made during the reporting period [57]. Group 3: Meeting Resolutions - The supervisory board approved the semi-annual report, confirming compliance with relevant laws and regulations [4][5]. - The board also approved the special report on the use of raised funds, confirming that all funds are managed according to regulations [14][15]. - A proposal to cancel the supervisory board and reduce registered capital was approved, which will require shareholder approval [6][70]. Group 4: Governance Changes - The company plans to abolish the supervisory board and transfer its responsibilities to the board's finance and audit committee to enhance governance [70]. - The registered capital will be reduced from 600 million RMB to approximately 598.12 million RMB following the cancellation of unvested restricted stock [70]. Group 5: Upcoming Shareholder Meeting - The company will hold its first extraordinary shareholder meeting of 2025 on September 5, 2025, to discuss the approved proposals [40][41]. - The meeting will utilize both on-site and online voting methods to facilitate shareholder participation [40][41].

今年上半年，口子窖业绩主要由高档白酒支撑。公告数据显示，1—6月口子窖高档白酒、中档白酒以及 低档白酒分别实现销售收入23.85亿元、0.32亿元、0.68亿元，同比下降19.8%、10.82%以及2.59%。从销 售区域来看，上半年口子窖在安徽省内、省外分别实现销售收入21.01亿元、3.84亿元，同比下降 19.31%、19.24%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）8月19日，安徽口子酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"口子窖"）发布 《2025年半年度报告》显示，今年上半年公司实现营业收入25.31亿元，同比减少20.07%；实现归属于 上市公司股东的净利润7.15亿元，同比减少24.63%；实现经营活动产生的现金流量净额为-3.83亿元，同 比下降9854.35%。 对于现金流大幅下降，口子窖在公告中指出，主要系本期销售商品收到的现金减少所致。 ...

口子窖（SH 603589，收盘价：35.01元）8月19日晚间发布半年度业绩报告称，2025年上半年营业收入 约25.31亿元，同比减少20.07%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润约7.15亿元，同比减少24.63%；基本每 股收益1.2元，同比减少24.05%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Kuaijiao, a leading Chinese liquor brand, has declined significantly in the first half of 2025, reflecting the intensified competition and market challenges in the liquor industry [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kuaijiao reported revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 711 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 698 million yuan, a decline of 24.90% compared to the previous year [2]. Revenue Structure - High-end liquor sales accounted for approximately 96% of total revenue, generating 2.385 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decline of 19.80% [3]. - The wholesale and agency channel saw a significant drop in revenue, totaling 2.352 billion yuan, down 21.26% year-on-year, while direct sales (including group purchases) grew by 44.57% to 133 million yuan [3]. Sales and Marketing - Sales expenses decreased to 357 million yuan, a decline of 25.11% year-on-year, attributed to reduced promotional spending and lower television advertising [4]. - Revenue from the domestic market was 2.1 billion yuan, down 19.31%, while revenue from outside the province was 384 million yuan, down 19.24% [4]. Market Competition - The liquor market is increasingly competitive, with numerous producers in the Huaihe River basin and surrounding areas, including well-known brands from Guizhou, Sichuan, and Shanxi [5][6]. - Kuaijiao plans to enhance its market presence by accelerating the construction of its Shanghai marketing center and expanding into key markets in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to support its distributors through targeted visits and management improvements, enhancing their market-building capabilities [6]. - Kuaijiao's profitability has come under scrutiny, with the company being removed from major indices in 2024, and its founder planning to reduce shareholding by up to 10 million shares, valued at over 300 million yuan [6].