Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its performance, with a focus on new product launches and channel reforms. The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" fills a gap in the 200-300 RMB price range, which is one of the fastest-growing segments in the Anhui market. This product is expected to drive revenue growth [1][2] - The company reported a total revenue of 43.62 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.11 billion RMB, down 2.81% year-on-year. The third quarter saw a significant decline in revenue and profit due to macroeconomic pressures and the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival [2][3] - The company is undergoing positive changes in its operations, including capacity expansion and increased marketing investments. The focus on channel flatness and market penetration in Anhui is expected to strengthen its market position [5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.95 billion RMB, down 22.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.62 billion RMB, down 27.72% year-on-year. The decline reflects the overall pressure on the liquor industry this year [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin decreased by 5.90 percentage points to 71.91% in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased operating costs. The net profit margin also fell by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% [3] - The company’s cash flow remains stable, with a year-on-year increase in sales cash receipts by 1.78% and a decrease in operating cash flow by 8.32% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 60.51 billion RMB, 69.77 billion RMB, and 80.15 billion RMB, respectively. The net profit forecasts are 17.52 billion RMB, 20.20 billion RMB, and 23.21 billion RMB for the same years. The expected EPS for these years are 2.92 RMB, 3.37 RMB, and 3.87 RMB, respectively [5][6]

证券研究报告 | 2024年10月29日 盈利预测和财务指标 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 5,135 5,962 5,971 6,447 6,988 (+/-%) 2.1% 16.1% 0.2% 8.0% 8.4% 净利润(百万元) 1550 1721 1713 1883 2079 (+/-%) -10.2% 11.0% -0.5% 9.9% 10.4% 每股收益（元） 2.58 2.87 2.86 3.14 3.46 EBIT Margin 39.6% 38.8% 37.5% 38.1% 38.7% 净资产收益率（ROE） 17.4% 17.7% 16.3% 16.7% 17.3% 市盈率（PE） 16.6 14.9 15.0 13.6 12.4 EV/EBITDA 12.6 11.0 11.8 10.7 9.8 市净率（PB） 2.88 2.63 2.44 2.28 2.14 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测 注：摊薄每股收益按最新总股本计算 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 食品饮料·白酒Ⅱ 证券分析师： ...

本公司于 2024 年 10 月 29 日收到黄绍刚先生办理股票质押展期的通知，具 体情况如下： 一、本次股份质押展期情况 重要内容提示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 黄绍刚先生持有安徽口子酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）股份 数量为 12,411,743 股，占公司总股本比例为 2.07%；本次质押展期 5,000,100 股 后，黄绍刚先生持有本公司股份累计质押数量为 5,000,100 股，占其持股数量比 例为 40.29%。 黄绍刚先生及其一致行动人持有本公司股份数量为 252,063,712 股，占本 公司总股本的 42.01%；本次质押展期 5,000,100 股后，黄绍刚先生及其一致行动 人持有本公司股份累计质押数量为 38,431,600 股，占其持股数量比例为 15.25%。 证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2024-047 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 关于股东股票质押展期的公告 黄绍刚先生于 2022 年 11 月 3 日将持有的本公司的股份 5,0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 49.92 CNY [4][6][13]. Core Insights - The company has entered an adjustment phase due to constrained consumer power, resulting in performance below expectations. However, profitability remains relatively high, and pre-sale indicators are healthy, suggesting potential for recovery [2][4][14]. - The report forecasts a decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 2.58 CNY, 2.70 CNY, and 2.83 CNY, down from previous estimates of 3.24 CNY, 3.53 CNY, and 3.77 CNY respectively [4][13]. - Despite the current adjustment period, the company is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer goods valuation and industry average comparisons, which supports the target price [4][13]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.195 billion CNY and a net profit of 362 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year declines of 22.04% and 27.02% respectively [14]. - The gross margin showed significant fluctuations, while the net margin remained high at 30.28%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 2.38 percentage points [14]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.45 billion CNY, down 8.6% from the previous year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [5][14]. Market Position - The company is currently facing challenges in both domestic and external markets, with revenue declines of 22% and 26% respectively in Q3 2024 [14]. - The company is undergoing channel and product reforms, which are expected to take time but may lead to performance recovery as the industry cycle improves [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 45 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.36 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.31 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.20 billion yuan, down 22.0%, and net profit was 360 million yuan, down 27.7% [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and nurturing terminal sales, adjusting its growth expectations in response to industry pressures and increased competition [1]. - The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" is expected to enhance market acceptance and contribute to sales growth, with a focus on improving channel management and relationships [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1%. However, revenue is expected to decline by 8.2% in 2024, followed by further declines in 2025 and 2026 [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.72 billion yuan in 2023, with a decline of 10.9% in 2024, and further declines in the following years [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.87 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.56 yuan in 2024, and further to 2.23 yuan in 2025 [9].

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料 2024 年 10 月 28 日 口子窖 (603589) ——24Q3 点评：收入业绩承压 现金流相对稳健 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 42.79 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 52.74/33.88 | | 市净率 | 2.6 | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | 3.51 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 25,594 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,322.20/10,685.89 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.93 | | ...

华福证券 口子窖（603589.SH） 基本面底部初现，静待复苏动能 事件：口子窖发布 2024 年第三季度报告，公司 24 年前三季度实现营业收 入 43.62 亿元，同比-1.89%，实现归属于母公司股东的净利 13.11 亿元，同 比-2.81%，实现扣非归母净利润 12.66 亿元，同比-4.89%。公司 24Q3 单季 度实现营收 11.95 亿元，同比-22.04%，归母净利润 3.62 亿元，同比-27.72%， 扣非归母净利润 3.37 亿元，同比-32.34%。 宏观环境扰动，中高档白酒销售承压 1） 公司以打造战略大单品为目标，加强兼系列产品推广力度， 2024 年前三季度，公司高档白酒实现营收达 41.12 亿元，同比-3.09%， 占比达 96.71%，实现中档白酒收入 0.49 亿元，同比-27.36%，占比约 为1.15%，实现低档白酒收入0.91亿元，同比+44.47%，占比约为2.14%。 2） 24Q3 单季度来看，公司实现高档白酒收入 11.39 亿元，同比 -22.7%，实现中档白酒收入 0.13 亿元，同比-55.3%，实现低档白酒收 入 0.21 亿元，同比+26.5 ...

中高档营收有所承压，维护渠道良性运转 核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年三季度报，前三季度实现营业收入 43.6 亿元，同比-1.9%；实现归 母净利润 13.1 亿元，同比-2.8%。单三季度来看，公司实现营业收入 12.0 亿元（- 22.0%），实现归母净利润 3.6 亿元（-27.7%）。 ⚫ 24Q3 中高档营收承压，合同负债环比上升。高档/中档/低档产品前三季度收入分别 为 41.1 亿/0.49 亿/0.91 亿，分别同比-3.1%/-27.4%/+44.5%；24Q3 高档/中档/低档 产品收入分别为 11.4 亿/0.13 亿/0.21 亿，分别同比-22.7%/-55.3%/+26.5%。分地 区，24 年前三季度省内实现收入 35.6 亿（yoy-1.7%），省外实现收入 7.0 亿（yoy8.1%），省内外营收均有回落，省内表现相对稳定。24Q3 末，公司省内、省外经 销商数量为 500、508 家，较 24Q2 末分别增加 1、10 家。24Q3 末，公司合同负债 为 3.6 亿，同比下滑 7.4%，环比 Q2 末上涨 12%，24Q3 营收+Δ合同负债为 12.1 亿（yoy+3 ...

证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2024-046 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十二 号——酒制造》的相关规定，现将公司 2024 年第三季度主要经营数据（未经审 计）公告如下： 一、公司 2024 年第三季度主要经营情况： 1、按产品档次分类情况： 注：上述表格合计数差异系四舍五入尾差所致。 2、按销售渠道分类情况： 单位：万元币种：人民币 产品名称 2024 年 1－9 月 销售收入 2023 年 1－9 月 销售收入 增减变动幅度（%） 高档白酒 411,191.93 424,292.00 -3.09 中档白酒 4,881.47 6,720.23 -27.36 低档白酒 9,089.13 6,291.25 44.47 合计 425,162.53 437,303.48 -2.78 单位：万元币种：人民币 渠道类型 2024 年 1－9 月 销售收入 2023 年 ...

安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 单位：元 币种：人民币 证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存 在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人徐进、主管会计工作负责人范博及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）李伟保证季度报 告中财务信息的真实、准确、完整。 第三季度财务报表是否经审计 □是√否 一、 主要财务数据 （一） 主要会计数据和财务指标 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|------------------|---------------------------------------|------------------|------------- ...