Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with the rating maintained [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic beauty brand, showcasing strong competitive advantages through a diversified brand matrix and solid fundamentals. The management adjustments and enhanced organizational efficiency are expected to drive sustainable growth in performance [5][7] - The company has successfully launched a new sunscreen product, "Super Film," which utilizes patented technology to enhance sun protection effectiveness by 60%. The product is designed for all skin types, including sensitive skin, and has received significant market attention due to its marketing campaign featuring a well-known celebrity [5][7] - Revenue projections indicate a steady increase, with expected revenues of 110.65 billion yuan in 2024, 135.34 billion yuan in 2025, and 163.09 billion yuan in 2026. Correspondingly, net profits are projected to reach 15.16 billion yuan in 2024, 18.82 billion yuan in 2025, and 22.02 billion yuan in 2026 [5][8] Financial Summary - The company's main revenue figures are as follows: 63.85 billion yuan in 2022, 89.05 billion yuan in 2023, and projected growth to 110.65 billion yuan in 2024 [5][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 3.01 yuan in 2023 to 4.75 yuan in 2025 and 5.56 yuan in 2026, indicating a positive growth trajectory [5][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 28.26 in 2023 to 17.93 in 2025 and further to 15.32 in 2026, suggesting improving valuation metrics [5][8]

张曦月 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530522020001 zhangxiyue@hnchasing.com 涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M 12M 珀莱雅 2.11 -8.33 -7.82 化妆品 6.50 -3.55 -1.87 -26% -6% 14% 34% 2024/03 2024/06 2024/09 2024/12 2025/03 珀莱雅 化妆品 1 珀莱雅（603605.SH）2024 年三季报点评：淡 季业绩延续高增，期待双十一大促表现 2024-11- 04 | 2025 年 03 月 11 日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 评级 | 买入 | | | | 评级变动 | 维持 | | 交易数据 | | | | 当前价格（元） | 85.48 | | --- | --- | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 79.00-121.10 | | 总市值（百万） | 33871.24 | | 流通市值（百万） | 33799.22 | | 总股本（万股） | 39624.76 | | 流通股（万股） | 39540.50 | 相关报告 2 珀莱雅（603605.SH）2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "buy" rating for the cosmetics and medical beauty sectors, highlighting a favorable outlook for 2025 due to improved consumer expectations and policy support [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the cosmetics sector will focus on three key elements: domestic brands, segmentation, and cost-effectiveness, with a projected steady growth in demand for 2025 [4][6]. - The medical beauty industry is expected to benefit from improved income expectations, with domestic companies poised to become major competitors in the light medical beauty segment [4][6]. - E-commerce is identified as a growth area, with new consumption models and brands emerging to drive development [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The beauty and personal care sector has not achieved excess returns in 2025 due to trading disruptions, but is expected to rebound with policy support [7][8]. - The SW beauty index has seen a growth of 0.6% since the beginning of 2025, underperforming compared to the broader A-share index [8][10]. 2. Cosmetics Sector - The report forecasts a recovery in the cosmetics demand in 2025, with a focus on high cost-performance brands benefiting from consumer preferences [15][18]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with significant growth in the skincare market, where domestic brands now occupy four out of the top ten positions [18][19]. - The report highlights the success of domestic brands in e-commerce platforms, particularly during promotional events, indicating a strong competitive position against international brands [21][22]. 3. Medical Beauty Sector - The medical beauty market is transitioning from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with domestic companies expanding their product lines and research pipelines [4][6]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong product pipelines and high profitability, such as Ai Meike [4][6]. 4. E-commerce Sector - The report suggests that the e-commerce sector will continue to thrive with the rise of new consumption models and brands, particularly benefiting from the growth of domestic brands [4][6]. 5. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their brand matrix and growth potential, including Shangmei Co., Pulaile, and others in the cosmetics sector [4][6]. - In the medical beauty sector, Ai Meike is highlighted as a key player, with a focus on companies with strong product offerings and research capabilities [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the beauty and medical aesthetics industry, highlighting strong performances from specific companies during the promotional period [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of domestic brands in the beauty sector, with a stable market share of 25% for domestic brands on Tmall compared to the previous year [2]. - Notable performances include Proya, which maintained its top position, and Juzibio, which improved its ranking significantly on Tmall [2]. - On Douyin, the beauty category's GMV reached over 11.3 billion yuan, marking a 72% increase from the previous year, with skincare and makeup categories showing substantial growth [3]. Summary by Sections Tmall Platform - The top four brands maintained their positions, with domestic brands holding a 25% market share, consistent with the previous year [2]. - Proya ranked first, while Juzibio's Kefu Mei moved up five places to eighth, driven by strong sales of its collagen products [2]. - Maogeping entered the top 20 for the first time, with significant sales from its caviar mask and cushion foundation [2]. Douyin Platform - The beauty category's GMV exceeded 11.3 billion yuan, a 72% increase year-on-year [3]. - Skincare products generated over 8.4 billion yuan, with a 65% increase from the previous year, while the makeup category saw a 106% growth, reaching over 2.4 billion yuan [3]. - Maogeping's makeup sales reached between 50 million to 75 million yuan, significantly improving its market position [3]. Overall Market Performance - Companies such as Juzibio, Maogeping, and Proya showed exceptional performance during the promotional period, indicating strong market dynamics [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment journey of the cosmetic company Proya, highlighting its significant profit growth and market valuation changes over the years, emphasizing the importance of understanding industry dynamics and making informed investment decisions. Group 1: Proya's Financial Performance - In 2017, Proya's profit was 200 million with a market capitalization of 5 billion, resulting in a dynamic P/E ratio of 25 times. By 2018, profits were projected to grow by 40-50%, leading to a lower P/E ratio of 17 times, indicating the stock was undervalued [2]. - By 2021, Proya's profit reached approximately 600 million, with a market capitalization of 40 billion, resulting in a dynamic P/E ratio of nearly 70 times. If profits continued to grow to 2 billion, the P/E ratio would drop to 20 times [4]. - Proya's profits increased from 200 million in 2017 to 1.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a consistent growth trend [11]. Group 2: Market Valuation and Investment Strategy - The article illustrates that selling Proya shares at a high P/E ratio (70 times) in 2021 could have led to missed opportunities, as the stock continued to perform well, while other sectors like real estate and banking saw significant declines [5]. - The author suggests that maintaining a position in high-growth companies like Proya, even at elevated P/E ratios, can be beneficial if the underlying business continues to grow [6]. - The article advises caution when the stock price reaches a certain threshold (30-40), as it may indicate a need to consider reallocating to higher dividend yield stocks [7]. Group 3: Industry Comparisons - Proya's performance is compared to other sectors, such as coal and liquor, where investments in companies with lower P/E ratios (like 7 times for coal) yielded substantial returns [5]. - Historical performance of other companies like Yunnan Baiyao and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical is referenced, showing that maintaining positions in leading companies can lead to significant long-term gains [9][10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry trends and the potential for high-growth companies to maintain elevated valuations over time [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, highlighting its strong growth potential as a leading domestic beauty brand [4]. Core Insights - The rise of domestic brands in the fashion consumer goods sector is a significant trend, with expectations for continued market share growth for quality domestic products. The government is promoting the "Chinese manufacturing" image and supporting the innovation of time-honored brands [2][3]. - Proya has solidified its position as the top player in the industry, achieving significant sales during major promotional events and maintaining its market leadership despite increased competition from international brands [3][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of domestic cultural integration and policy support, particularly through its sub-brand, Caitang, which aligns with the national trend of promoting Chinese aesthetics [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Position and Performance - Proya's GMV reached 308 million yuan on the Taobao platform in January 2025, ranking first, while its sales on Douyin were between 200-250 million yuan, placing it second [3]. - The company has shown resilience in maintaining its top market position despite competitive pressures from international brands during promotional events [3]. Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on short-term product development and multi-brand operations to strengthen its market position. Key products are expected to see increased sales, particularly in the energy and sunscreen categories [4]. - Proya is also exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, and is actively seeking quality international brand acquisitions to enhance growth potential [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.52 billion, 1.88 billion, and 2.27 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.85, 4.76, and 5.74 yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 22, 18, and 15 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a favorable valuation for long-term growth [4].

Industry Overview - The cosmetics industry experienced significant fluctuations in 2024, with intense competition across platforms, brands, and products [1] - Domestic Chinese cosmetics brands continued to expand their market share, reaching 53.51% of the top 1000 brands on major e-commerce platforms from January to November 2024, up from 52.22% in 2023 [1] - Market shares of French, American, Japanese, and Korean brands in China saw slight declines [1] Company Performance - The company's multiple sub-brands demonstrated strong growth momentum, with the main brand consistently ranking first in sales among domestic cosmetics brands on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [1] - The company was recognized as the "Zhejiang Provincial Key Enterprise Research Institute," the only cosmetics company to receive this honor, contributing to the high-quality development of the domestic cosmetics industry [1] Research and Innovation - The company continued to invest in scientific research and innovation, collaborating with prestigious universities such as Beijing Technology and Business University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University to establish joint laboratories [1] - On November 15, 2024, the company partnered with the Systems Biomedicine Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University to establish the "Scalp Health Joint Laboratory" [1] Digital Transformation - The company fully advanced its digital transformation in 2024, being officially recognized as a "National Green Factory" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2] - The company's cosmetics future factory was awarded the title of "Future Factory" in Zhejiang Province [2] - The company was selected as a "Leading Case" in the digital transformation of China's light industry and as a "Smart Governance" typical case by the National Medical Products Administration [2] Market Outlook - The company's chairman, Hou Juncheng, expressed optimism about the growth potential of the Chinese cosmetics market, believing that domestic brands have the opportunity to further expand their market share in both existing and new market spaces [2] - Despite increasing competition in segmented markets, the Chinese cosmetics industry is expected to produce more cost-effective and competitive products [2]

暴利行业持续分化洗牌。 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 正所谓，爱美之心，人皆有之。如今，美容护理已越发融入人们的日常生活中，其市场需求持续扩 大。国家统计局数据显示，我国化妆品类零售总额在过去二十多年里呈现稳步提升，2023年达到4,14 2亿元，较2011年增长接近3倍。 但2024年1-11月的情况却有些不同，化妆品类零售总额罕见出现负增长，同比下滑了1.3%，莫非化妆 品生意不好做了？ （来源：Choice终端，制表：市值风云APP） 这组数据背后，其实意味着两层含义，其一是化妆品需求的小幅减少，其二则是行业内卷越发严重。 消费需求越发向头部品牌集中，质量不佳、规模较小、生产不良的尾部企业正逐渐被淘汰出局，一场 席卷整个行业的大洗牌或许正在进行。 动荡过后，仍能留在牌桌上的企业必定各有各的看家本领，今天我们便从美容护理板块前十大市值公 司来一探究竟。 参考申万行业分类及截至2024年12月31日的市值排名，前十大公司分别为爱美客（300896.SZ）、珀 莱雅（603605.SH）、华熙生物（688363.SH）、稳健医疗（300888.SZ）、锦波生物（832982.BJ）、 贝泰妮（30095 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company, Proya (603605), is recognized as a leading domestic beauty brand in China, demonstrating strong performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival, showcasing the advantages of its multi-brand matrix and big product strategy [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with revenue projections for 2024-2026 set at 10.916 billion, 12.557 billion, and 14.315 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 22.6%, 15.0%, and 14.0% respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow by 27.5%, 18.5%, and 16.2% over the same period, reaching 1.522 billion, 1.803 billion, and 2.096 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q4 2024, Proya's sales across multiple platforms were impressive, with Tmall GMV reaching 2.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.19% [2]. - During the Double Eleven event, Proya ranked first among domestic beauty brands on Tmall, Douyin, and JD, with respective year-on-year growth rates of over 10%, 60%, and 30% [2]. Brand Matrix Development - Proya has expanded its brand portfolio beyond its main brand, including brands like Caitang, Off&Relax, and Yuefuti, covering various segments such as skincare, makeup, and hair care [3]. - Caitang, a makeup brand tailored for Chinese consumers, achieved significant sales during Double Eleven, ranking second in Tmall's makeup category [3]. - Off&Relax, positioned as a scalp health expert, saw its OR volumizing shampoo achieve over 400,000 units sold on Tmall during the same period [3]. - Yuefuti, targeting oily skin, reported substantial sales growth, with GMV on Tmall, JD, and Pinduoduo increasing by over 20%, 80%, and 100% respectively [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 10.916 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.59% [10]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.522 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.47% [10]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 3.01 yuan in 2023 to 3.84 yuan in 2024 [10].

| 证券代码：603605 | 证券简称：珀莱雅 | 公告编号：2025-001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113634 | 债券简称：珀莱转债 | | 珀莱雅化妆品股份有限公司 可转债转股结果暨股份变动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 累计转股情况：珀莱转债自 2022 年 6 月 14 日开始转股，截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,累计共有人民币 960,000 元珀莱转债转换为珀莱雅化妆品股份有限公司 （以下简称"公司"）A 股股票，因转股形成的股份数量为 7,001 股，占可转债 转股前公司已发行股份总额的 0.0025%。 未转股可转债情况：截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，尚未转股的珀莱转债金额为 人民币 750,753,000 元，占珀莱转债发行总量的 99.8723%。 本季度转股情况：自 2024 年 10 月 1 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日期间，珀莱转 债转股的金额为人民币 2,000 元，因转股形成的股份数量为 2 ...