Investment Rating - The report rates the cosmetics and medical beauty industry as "Overweight" for 2025, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The demand side of the cosmetics and medical beauty sector is expected to accelerate, with retail sales of cosmetics projected to reach 465.3 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, surpassing the overall retail growth by 1.4 percentage points [3]. - The performance of Hong Kong-listed beauty companies is strong, with significant growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) through platforms like Douyin, particularly during promotional events like Double Eleven [3]. - The A-share market shows a mixed performance, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Shanghai Jahwa experiencing substantial improvements in their earnings [3]. - The e-commerce operation sector is rebounding, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Yiwang Yichuang expected to see profit growth exceeding 50% in 2025 [3]. - The medical beauty segment is anticipated to face slight fatigue due to macroeconomic factors, but new product launches are expected to stimulate consumer interest in 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics Sector - Retail sales of cosmetics are projected to grow by 5.1% in 2025, with Q4 growth reaching 9.9% [3]. - Key companies such as Shiseido and Lin Qingxuan are expected to see significant GMV growth, with Lin Qingxuan projected to achieve triple-digit growth [3]. - Investment recommendations include companies with strong channel and brand matrices like Maogeping, Shiseido, and Lin Qingxuan, as well as those with improving earnings like Porlaia and Marubi [3]. Medical Beauty Sector - The medical beauty sector is expected to be impacted by macroeconomic conditions, with companies like Aimeike facing challenges [3]. - Recommendations focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and broad product pipelines, such as Aimeike and Langzi [3]. E-commerce and Operations - The e-commerce operation sector is recovering, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology expected to see significant profit growth [3]. - The report highlights the importance of self-operated brands and the potential for high growth in this segment [3]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms including Porlaia, Maogeping, and Shiseido, with projected PE ratios reflecting growth expectations [5].

Market Overview - The cosmetics sector experienced a decline of 1.27% on January 27, with Marubi Biotechnology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key performers in the cosmetics sector included: - Jiahen Home Cosmetics (300955) with a closing price of 41.47, up 6.88% and a trading volume of 73,900 shares, totaling 303 million yuan [1] - Qingdao Kingway (002094) closed at 8.24, up 3.00% with a trading volume of 569,900 shares, totaling 467 million yuan [1] - Conversely, Marubi Biotechnology (603983) closed at 31.84, down 4.47% with a trading volume of 46,400 shares, totaling 149 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The cosmetics sector saw a net outflow of 43.98 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 43.99 million yuan [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Qingdao Kingway (002094) with a net inflow of 22.70 million yuan from main funds [3] - Shanghai Jahwa (600315) with a net inflow of 8.10 million yuan from main funds [3] - Marubi Biotechnology (603983) experienced a slight net outflow of 94,800 yuan from main funds [3]

Core Insights - The beauty industry is witnessing a shift as leading brands are refocusing on offline channels, which are expected to become a significant growth area by 2026 [1][3] - Major companies like Marubi, Proya, and Shiseido are signaling a strategic pivot towards offline sales, indicating a collective recognition of the potential profitability in this space [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The past year has seen brands expressing concerns over high competition, expensive traffic, and declining online sales, leading to a reevaluation of growth strategies [1][2] - Data from 2023-2024 shows slight increases in offline revenues for major brands, but their overall contribution to total revenue is declining, highlighting a need for strategic investment in offline channels [3][4] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Natural堂 has demonstrated the potential of offline channels, with average annual revenues exceeding 1.6 billion yuan over the past three years, indicating that offline can still be a vital growth area [4] - The increasing costs of online traffic and the saturation of online platforms are pushing beauty brands to reconsider their channel strategies, making offline channels a more attractive option for sustainable growth [4][5] Group 3: OTC Channel Opportunities - The OTC (Over-the-Counter) channel is emerging as a key battleground for domestic brands, with over 30% of the top 100 cosmetic brands already having products displayed in pharmacies [6][7] - Major pharmacy chains are actively seeking to expand their beauty product offerings, with plans to introduce personal care items in a significant number of their stores [6][7] Group 4: Brand Strategies - Brands are adopting targeted product strategies for different channels, with Marubi launching new products specifically for offline sales and Proya entering the OTC market with a focus on medical and cosmetic synergy [8][9] - The emphasis is on creating engaging in-store experiences and building emotional connections with consumers to enhance brand loyalty and drive sales [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The closure of the Taobao store "Dai Gua Xiao Huo Ban," a personal beauty agent shop with 450,000 followers, highlights the increasing challenges faced by e-commerce businesses in the beauty industry due to intensified competition, regulatory pressures, and rapid changes in e-commerce strategies [2][3][14]. Group 1: Store Performance and Closure - "Dai Gua Xiao Huo Ban" announced it will completely delist all products by the end of February, with remaining inventory being cleared at a 30% discount [2][26]. - The store has a diverse product range, including popular domestic beauty items, with prices mostly between tens to hundreds of yuan, targeting a budget-conscious consumer base [4][28]. - Despite being a top performer with 458,000 followers and over 300,000 annual sales, the store's overall rating is only 4.5, lagging behind 88% of its peers, primarily due to low logistics speed [8][32][34]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The beauty e-commerce sector is experiencing a wave of store closures, with many previously successful shops shutting down due to economic and psychological pressures [14][38]. - The operational environment for e-commerce is becoming increasingly difficult, with many merchants forced to sell products at cost price to attract customers, leading to unsustainable revenue [16][40]. - Issues such as high return rates and strict consumer protection policies are exacerbating the challenges for small beauty shops, making it hard to maintain profitability [17][41]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the closures, the overall potential for the Chinese cosmetics market remains strong, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 170 billion yuan by 2028, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of over 8% [20][44]. - The market is witnessing a polarization, with large brands like Proya and Han Shu continuing to grow, while smaller players struggle unless they find a unique positioning [21][45]. - Strategies for survival in the current market include focusing on product quality, offering tailored solutions, and targeting niche markets to build a loyal customer base [22][46].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Industry**: Consumer Sector, specifically focusing on the restaurant and jewelry industries - **Companies Discussed**: Haidilao (restaurant), Laopuhuang (jewelry), and Proya (cosmetics) Key Points and Arguments Haidilao 1. **Performance Recovery**: Haidilao's performance is showing signs of stabilization, with a notable recovery in customer turnover rates in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, maintaining an average customer spend of around 100 RMB [2][6] 2. **Management Changes**: The return of Zhang Yong is expected to positively influence the company's operations, although specific growth targets have not been set. The potential for new store openings is contingent on stabilizing turnover rates [3][4] 3. **Brand Expansion**: Haidilao is exploring multi-brand strategies, with new concepts like barbecue and sushi being developed, which could enhance its market presence [4][5] 4. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the consumer sector is at a low point, particularly in the Hong Kong market, but there is potential for a rebound due to low expectations and valuations [1][6] 5. **Future Outlook**: For 2026, the revenue forecast is cautiously optimistic, with estimates suggesting a recovery in performance, potentially reaching 4.5 to 4.7 billion RMB [6][7] Laopuhuang 1. **Sales Momentum**: Laopuhuang is experiencing a surge in customer interest, particularly during the Valentine's Day season, with expectations of exceeding previous sales records due to rising gold prices and promotional activities [9][10] 2. **Brand Strength**: The brand's positioning and market presence have strengthened, with significant customer engagement observed during promotional events, indicating a robust demand outlook [11][12] 3. **Pricing Strategy**: There is anticipation of price increases following the Valentine's Day period, which could further enhance sales performance [10][11] 4. **Market Positioning**: Laopuhuang's strategy includes optimizing store locations and expanding its product offerings, which is expected to drive growth in the coming years [12][13] Proya 1. **Valuation and Growth Potential**: Proya is currently undervalued, with a projected earnings multiple of around 15 times for 2026, making it an attractive investment opportunity [19][20] 2. **Management Changes**: Recent leadership changes are expected to bring new strategies and innovations, particularly in product development and market positioning [19][20] 3. **Product Innovation**: The introduction of new product lines, particularly in the skincare segment, is anticipated to capture market share and drive sales growth [20][21] 4. **Acquisition Strategy**: Proya is actively pursuing acquisition opportunities, particularly in the cosmetics sector, to enhance its market presence both domestically and internationally [22][23] Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Sentiment**: The overall consumer sentiment remains cautious, but there are signs of potential recovery in spending, particularly in the restaurant and jewelry sectors [1][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies like Haidilao and Laopuhuang adapting their strategies to meet changing consumer preferences and market conditions [4][10] - **Future Monitoring**: Continuous monitoring of market trends and consumer behavior will be essential for assessing the performance of these companies in the upcoming quarters [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, indicating strong performance compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has outperformed the market recently, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 2.0% from January 16 to January 23, 2026, surpassing the Shenwan A Index by 0.8 percentage points [4][5]. - December 2025 saw a significant increase in social retail sales for cosmetics, reaching 38 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.8%, indicating robust demand even in the off-season. The overall growth rate for Q4 was 9.9%, significantly higher than the annual growth of 5.1% for 2025, driven by promotional events like Double 11 [10][17]. - The report anticipates continued high consumer demand in Q1 2026, supported by new product launches and regulatory approvals in the medical beauty sector [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index increasing by 2.6% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index rising by 4.2%, both outperforming the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. Key Company Reviews - Lin Qingxuan (2657HK) is highlighted as a benchmark in the high-end domestic skincare market, with revenue projected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 32.7%. The company is expected to turn a profit of 187 million yuan in 2024, a 120% increase year-on-year [11][12]. - Langzi Co., Ltd. (002612.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 900 million to 1.05 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 245.25% to 302.80% [4]. - Qingsong Co., Ltd. (300132.SZ) anticipates a net profit of 130 million to 165 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 137.73% to 201.74% [4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the high-end skincare market is expanding, with the market size expected to reach 218.5 billion yuan by 2029. The concept of "oil-based skincare" is becoming mainstream, driving growth in the facial oil segment, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024 [12][14]. - E-commerce channels are increasingly important, with Lin Qingxuan achieving a 65.4% online revenue share in H1 2025, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Tmall for growth [13]. Sales Data - In December 2025, the total retail sales of cosmetics reached 38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. The overall retail sales for cosmetics in 2025 were 465.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% increase [17][21].

Core Viewpoint - The OTC channel presents significant opportunities for beauty brands, offering professional endorsements, precise targeting of skincare needs, and immediate product experiences, but it also poses challenges due to strict professional requirements and a talent shortage in the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Entry and Growth - By 2025, over six domestic cosmetic companies are expected to enter the OTC channel, marking it as the "Year of Domestic Beauty OTC Layout" [2]. - Leading domestic beauty brand Proya (603605.SH) announced its entry into the OTC channel in January 2026, joining a growing list of companies [2]. - Brands like Winona and Kefu Beauty have been early entrants into the OTC channel, with Winona's sales nearing 1 billion yuan in 2023, capturing over 60% of the market share in this channel [5]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - In April 2025, Furuida Bio announced plans to accelerate its OTC channel development, aiming to cover 10,000 drugstore chains and launch 100 "cosmetic and medicinal" SKUs [5]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on integrating with the professional environment of pharmacies rather than merely distributing products [5]. - Proya is preparing multiple products for the OTC channel, emphasizing the importance of medical device products as a foundation for entry [6]. Group 3: Market Potential and Challenges - The OTC channel has approximately double the growth potential, with Winona targeting to cover 250,000 pharmacies [8]. - As of December 2024, there are about 705,000 licensed drug retail enterprises in China, with Winona covering over 110,000, representing about one-seventh of the total retail pharmacy stores [9]. - The demand for beauty products in pharmacies is rising due to pressures on traditional pharmacy profits and the need for transformation [9]. Group 4: Profitability and Talent Shortage - Medical device products have a significantly higher gross margin, averaging 77%-83%, compared to regular cosmetic products [9]. - The beauty industry faces a talent shortage in the pharmacy channel, as many brands rely on pharmacists who must understand both pharmaceuticals and cosmetics [10]. - Companies like Betaini are addressing this by training pharmacy staff to enhance customer trust and provide professional consultations [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Proya, a leading domestic beauty brand in China, after achieving the top revenue position in the industry. It highlights the company's struggle to maintain its market leadership amid declining sales and profits, particularly following the transition to a new generation of leadership. Group 1: Company Performance - Proya's revenue for Q3 2025 was 1.736 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.63%, with net profit dropping by 23.64% to 227 million yuan, marking the first time the company faced a simultaneous decline in both revenue and profit [6][7]. - The company's stock price has significantly decreased from a peak of 129.01 yuan per share in March 2023 to 73.18 yuan per share by January 2026 [6][8]. - In 2024, Proya's main brand revenue reached 10.778 billion yuan, making it the only domestic beauty giant to enter the "100 billion club" [11]. Group 2: Challenges and Market Dynamics - The beauty industry is entering a micro-growth phase, with Proya facing challenges from industry cycles, intensified competition, and internal bottlenecks [7][9]. - Proya's reliance on a few key products, such as the Ruby Essence and the Early C and Late A series, has led to stagnation as these products approach the latter stages of their life cycles [12][13]. - The company is experiencing high marketing costs, which are eroding profit margins, as traditional marketing strategies become less effective in the current market environment [16][18]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Proya is attempting to revitalize its product lines and has introduced new brands like OR and Cai Tang, but these efforts have not yet compensated for the slowdown in its main brand's growth [14][30]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its offline presence, having initiated partnerships with offline pharmacies and retail channels, but has seen a decline in offline revenue [21][22]. - Proya's leadership transition has led to significant changes in its executive team, which may impact its strategic direction and operational stability [26][28]. Group 4: Financial Health and Future Outlook - Proya's financial health remains robust, with projected cash flow of 4.07 billion yuan by the end of 2024 and potentially reaching 6.2 billion yuan by the end of 2027, with no short-term or long-term bank loans [31]. - The company is exploring opportunities for international expansion and product development through potential listings and investments, which could provide additional growth avenues [31].

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing trend of domestic beauty brands entering the OTC (over-the-counter) channel in China, with 2025 being marked as a pivotal year for this transition [2][3] - Major players like Proya and other beauty companies are preparing to launch products in the OTC space, which is seen as a way to leverage the professional credibility of pharmacies and meet specific skincare needs [4][5] Group 1: Market Entry and Growth - By 2025, over six domestic cosmetic companies are expected to enter the OTC channel, expanding the current limited presence of leading brands [2] - Proya announced its entry into the OTC channel in January 2026, joining other brands that have already established a presence [2][4] - The OTC channel has seen significant sales, with brands like Winona achieving nearly 1 billion yuan in sales from this channel in 2023 [3] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Product Development - Companies are focusing on strategic partnerships and product development tailored for the OTC market, with Proya preparing multiple products aimed at post-operative recovery and daily skincare [4] - Winona and other brands are actively seeking to enhance their product offerings and market reach through collaborations with pharmacies [3][4] Group 3: Market Potential and Challenges - The OTC channel is projected to have about double the growth potential, with Winona aiming to cover 250,000 pharmacies [5] - The regulatory environment is becoming more favorable for pharmacies to sell cosmetic products, which aligns with the increasing demand for beauty products in these settings [6] - Despite the opportunities, there is a significant talent shortage in the OTC channel, as brands require personnel who are knowledgeable in both pharmaceuticals and cosmetics [7] Group 4: Financial Metrics and Profitability - The average gross margin for medical beauty products in the OTC channel is significantly higher than that of regular cosmetic products, with margins for medical dressings ranging from 77% to 83% [6] - Specific companies report high gross margins, such as 84.22% for Chuerjia's medical device products and 82% for Jinjian Biological's collagen products [6]

Industry Overview - The beauty retail sector in China experienced a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, with total retail sales reaching 465.3 billion yuan in 2025, significantly outperforming the overall retail market which grew by 3.7% [2] - December 2025 saw a notable increase in cosmetic retail sales, reaching 38 billion yuan, marking an 8.8% year-on-year growth, driven by year-end consumer demand and promotional activities [2] Brand Developments - Maybelline faced backlash after announcing a partnership with the youth group "Times Youth" as brand ambassadors, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and low sales figures [3] - Dakeci responded to an investigation regarding misleading advertising of its children's lip balm, clarifying that it did not promote the product as "food-grade" despite previous claims on e-commerce platforms [4] - The first "youthful needle" for temporal filling was approved in China, marking a significant advancement in aesthetic medicine [5] - The high-end fragrance brand Wenxian opened its first pop-up store in Shanghai, focusing on traditional incense culture [6][7] - Proya launched a new medical skincare series targeting post-surgery and specialized skin care, planning to enter OTC channels [8] - The UK brand Indu exited the color cosmetics market to focus on skincare, citing higher consumer loyalty in that segment [9] - Sephora announced a strategic partnership with Olive Young to create a dedicated K-beauty section, set to launch in North America and Singapore [10] - Valentino Beauty exited the South Korean market due to limited distribution and competition from local brands [11] - Patrick Ta Beauty entered the Middle Eastern market through a partnership with Sephora, launching in several countries [12] - Douglas reported a slight increase in Q1 sales but faced pressure on profit margins due to consumer price sensitivity [13][14] Regulatory and Market Trends - Recent reports highlighted the discovery of banned substances in children's creams, prompting regulatory investigations and product recalls [15] - Unilever Ventures invested in two Indian beauty brands, indicating confidence in the high-end, clean beauty market in India [16] - China Duty Free Group announced a significant acquisition of DFS assets for approximately 3.95 billion USD, enhancing its presence in the Greater Bay Area [17] - Saks Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, marking a significant event in the luxury retail sector [18] - L'Occitane is exploring a potential IPO in the US market, having previously been privatized in 2024 [20] - Shandong Province initiated a pilot program for electronic labels on cosmetics, aimed at improving product traceability and compliance [21] - New cosmetic testing standards are being proposed in China to enhance safety and regulatory compliance [22]