Industry Overview - The beauty retail sector in China experienced a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, with total retail sales reaching 465.3 billion yuan in 2025, significantly outperforming the overall retail market which grew by 3.7% [2] - December 2025 saw a notable increase in cosmetic retail sales, reaching 38 billion yuan, marking an 8.8% year-on-year growth, driven by year-end consumer demand and promotional activities [2] Brand Developments - Maybelline faced backlash after announcing a partnership with the youth group "Times Youth" as brand ambassadors, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and low sales figures [3] - Dakeci responded to an investigation regarding misleading advertising of its children's lip balm, clarifying that it did not promote the product as "food-grade" despite previous claims on e-commerce platforms [4] - The first "youthful needle" for temporal filling was approved in China, marking a significant advancement in aesthetic medicine [5] - The high-end fragrance brand Wenxian opened its first pop-up store in Shanghai, focusing on traditional incense culture [6][7] - Proya launched a new medical skincare series targeting post-surgery and specialized skin care, planning to enter OTC channels [8] - The UK brand Indu exited the color cosmetics market to focus on skincare, citing higher consumer loyalty in that segment [9] - Sephora announced a strategic partnership with Olive Young to create a dedicated K-beauty section, set to launch in North America and Singapore [10] - Valentino Beauty exited the South Korean market due to limited distribution and competition from local brands [11] - Patrick Ta Beauty entered the Middle Eastern market through a partnership with Sephora, launching in several countries [12] - Douglas reported a slight increase in Q1 sales but faced pressure on profit margins due to consumer price sensitivity [13][14] Regulatory and Market Trends - Recent reports highlighted the discovery of banned substances in children's creams, prompting regulatory investigations and product recalls [15] - Unilever Ventures invested in two Indian beauty brands, indicating confidence in the high-end, clean beauty market in India [16] - China Duty Free Group announced a significant acquisition of DFS assets for approximately 3.95 billion USD, enhancing its presence in the Greater Bay Area [17] - Saks Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, marking a significant event in the luxury retail sector [18] - L'Occitane is exploring a potential IPO in the US market, having previously been privatized in 2024 [20] - Shandong Province initiated a pilot program for electronic labels on cosmetics, aimed at improving product traceability and compliance [21] - New cosmetic testing standards are being proposed in China to enhance safety and regulatory compliance [22]

Group 1 - The cosmetics sector experienced a slight increase of 0.25% on January 21, with Lafang Jiahua leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - Lafang Jiahua's closing price was 22.89, reflecting a rise of 2.10%, with a trading volume of 57,000 shares and a transaction value of 130 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The cosmetics sector saw a net outflow of 55.52 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 30.86 million yuan [2] - The trading data for various companies showed mixed performance, with some companies like Betaini and Lafang Jiahua experiencing net outflows from institutional investors [3] - Betaini had a net outflow of 14.09 million yuan from institutional investors, while Lafang Jiahua saw a net inflow of 13.43 million yuan [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Proya (珀莱雅) Company Overview - Proya is a cosmetics company that has experienced fluctuations in its valuation since its IPO in 2017, driven by net profit growth and a focus on blockbuster products during its initial years [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Since 2025, Proya has seen a significant slowdown in quarterly revenue growth, although the first quarter of 2025 exceeded profit expectations. Overall, the sustainability of this growth is questionable [3]. - The gross margin has shown a steady increase, while the net profit margin has remained relatively stable. However, the valuation has been on a downward trend since 2025, currently at historical lows [3][4]. Brand Performance - The main brand, Proya, experienced negative growth overall in 2025, with only the third quarter showing positive growth due to new product launches and a low base effect. In contrast, sub-brands such as of relax, 原色波塔, and 花知晓 performed exceptionally well, with of relax achieving a compound growth rate close to 150% [2][6]. Leadership and Strategic Concerns - There are concerns regarding the declining momentum of the main brand and risks associated with leadership changes. However, the new leadership team has successfully integrated over the past year, and the operational capabilities of the company have matured [7]. Product Innovation - Proya is actively pursuing product innovation in 2025, including upgrades to the dual-antioxidant series, which saw a 72% year-on-year increase within 10 days of launch, and a significant upgrade to the ruby series. A new ruby microbead essence is set to be launched, promoted through social media platforms like 小红书 [8]. Future Directions - The company plans to focus on key areas such as whitening, soothing, anti-aging, sun protection, and post-operative recovery. Additionally, Proya is investing in emerging brands like 花知晓 to expand its market presence and is exploring the home beauty device sector to tap into the broader water-light market [9][10]. Profit Forecast - Proya's net profit is projected to be approximately 1.58 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining slight growth, with an expected increase to 1.74 billion yuan in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of around 10%. The current price-to-earnings ratio is 16 times, indicating a relatively cheap valuation compared to its quality [5][11]. Additional Important Insights - The company’s ability to regain valuation hinges on the recovery of its main brand's performance and stable growth across its business segments [4]. - Proya aims to establish itself as a benchmark for domestic brands and pursue international expansion to achieve valuation premiums [5][11].

Group 1 - The company, Proya, stated that it strictly adheres to relevant laws and regulations regarding information disclosure obligations [2] - Investors are advised to refer to the information disclosed by the company on the Shanghai Stock Exchange website for accurate updates [2]

Group 1 - The company, Proya, announced its first share repurchase on January 15, 2026, through centralized bidding, acquiring 230,800 shares [2] - The total amount spent on the share repurchase was approximately RMB 16,119,331, excluding transaction costs such as stamp duty and commissions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that the appointment of its directors and senior management strictly adheres to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring a qualified and experienced leadership team [2] Group 1 - The management team has diverse backgrounds in finance, accounting, and supply chain, indicating a well-rounded expertise [2] - The leadership possesses rich industry experience and an international perspective, aligning core competencies with their respective positions [2] - The company advises stakeholders to refer to disclosures on the Shanghai Stock Exchange for detailed information regarding management appointments [2]

Group 1: Drivers of Excess Returns from Stock Buybacks - Stock buybacks are positively correlated with the buyback ratio, where higher buyback ratios lead to greater excess returns. The highest excess returns for companies with buyback ratios over 5% are 4.48% and 4.36% for the 5th and 4th groups, respectively, while other groups yield less than 1.5% [1][11] - The valuation logic of "stronger gets stronger" and "undervaluation recovery" exists post-buyback announcement. Companies with low valuation (1st group) show a significant excess return of 7.45%, while the highest and lowest valuation groups yield 3.32% and 2.11% excess returns, respectively, over 90 days post-announcement [1][13] Group 2: Recent Stock Buyback Activities - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, 16 companies with more than 10 institutional ratings announced buybacks, with Salted Fish (盐津铺子) being notable for a buyback ratio exceeding 1%. Proya (珀莱雅) is recommended for its low PE percentile over the past three years [2][17] - Salted Fish efficiently completed its buyback, demonstrating strong confidence in its value, with revenue of 4.427 billion and net profit of 605 million in the first three quarters of 2025. The company is upgrading its distribution channels and enhancing profitability [2][19] - Proya initiated its first buyback on January 15, 2026, repurchasing 230,800 shares with a total plan amounting to 80 million to 150 million. The company reported revenue of 7.098 billion and net profit of 1.026 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 73.69% [2][19] Group 3: Yearly Stock Buyback Overview - From January 16, 2025, to January 16, 2026, 28 companies with more than 10 institutional ratings announced buybacks, with notable mentions being Jian Sheng Group (健盛集团) and Jingxin Pharmaceutical (京新药业) for buyback ratios exceeding 5% [3][20] - Jian Sheng Group initiated a buyback plan in October 2025, using 150 million to 300 million in self-funds and loans, with a maximum buyback price of 14.69 per share. The company reported revenue of 1.886 billion and net profit of 309 million in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant cash flow increase of 72.95% [3][23] - Jingxin Pharmaceutical started its buyback plan in January 2025, planning to use 350 million to 700 million in self-funds for employee stock ownership plans. The company reported revenue of 3.048 billion, a slight decline of 5.0%, and a net profit of 576 million, with a non-recurring net profit growth of 8.92% [3][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in the performance of various segments within the consumer sector, with a stable overall market performance but most sub-sectors underperforming compared to the broader market [4][6]. - There is an expectation for consumer demand to improve ahead of the Lunar New Year, driven by sufficient market liquidity [4]. - The tourism sector is showing potential for growth, with leading companies responding effectively to changing consumer demands [4]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that adapt quickly to market dynamics [4]. - The food and beverage sector is seeing a recovery in supply-demand relationships, particularly in dairy products, while the restaurant supply chain is stabilizing [4]. - In the liquor segment, leading companies are expected to maintain market share despite recent profit adjustments [4]. Market Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57% during the week of January 12-16, with the media sector rising by 3.34% while other sectors like food and beverage and agriculture saw declines of 2.03% and 3.49% respectively [6][8]. Social Services - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [4]. Industry Dynamics - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to enhance structural monetary policy support, which may positively impact consumer spending and economic recovery [10]. - The Philippines has announced visa-free entry for Chinese citizens, which could boost tourism [11]. Company Announcements - Companies like Giant Biological and Proya are making strategic moves, such as product approvals and share buybacks, indicating proactive management in response to market conditions [13][19]. - The report notes significant developments in the liquor industry, including the launch of premium products and partnerships for promotional events [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Qian Dama through its "community small store + daily clearance mechanism + warehouse and cold chain" model, which enhances supply stability and operational efficiency [3][24][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and identifies high-quality companies in high-growth sectors, recommending specific companies across various segments [6][37] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail and social service indices reported a decline of 1.47% and an increase of 1.53% respectively during the week of January 12-16, 2026 [5][13] - The internet e-commerce sector showed the highest growth, with a year-to-date increase of 11.18% [16][19] Company Highlights - Qian Dama has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on fresh food retail in the South China market, with a GMV of 9.8 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outperforming its competitors [24][25] - The company operates 2,983 stores, with 2,898 being franchise stores, contributing over 90% of its revenue [25][31] - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market positioning, including: - Chaohongji, expected to achieve a net profit of 436-533 million yuan in 2025, driven by brand upgrades and channel expansion [39][43] - Meilitiantian Medical Health, projected to see a revenue increase of 28.2% in FY2025H1 [39] - Zhou Dafu, focusing on product structure optimization and store upgrades [39] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending Chaohongji and Laopu Gold [6][37] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][37] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that meet emotional value and safety innovation, recommending Maogeping and Pola [6][37] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [6][37]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the beauty industry Core Insights - The Chinese beauty industry is witnessing a strategic shift towards technology and upstream investments, with leading companies like Proya investing in biopharmaceuticals to enhance raw material R&D capabilities and build technological barriers [4] - The oral care market is experiencing significant growth, with Q1 2025 sales reaching 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, driven by innovative products that address diverse consumer needs [4] - Starbucks is transitioning its strategy to include beauty products, appointing a former executive from E.L.F. to enhance its marketing efforts, aiming to alleviate growth anxieties in the North American market through sensory marketing [7] - Sephora has introduced six domestic beauty brands, aiming to attract younger consumers while facing challenges related to its high-end positioning [7] - Huaxizi has made a significant entry into the U.S. market by partnering with Ulta Beauty, marking a milestone for Chinese beauty brands in global expansion [8] - Lin Qingxuan is set to become the first "high-end domestic skincare stock" listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a projected revenue of 1.052 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 98.3% year-on-year growth [8] Industry Trends - The beauty industry is increasingly focusing on building an ecological closed loop through investments in upstream technology and new brands, enhancing competitiveness [4] - The oral care segment is evolving with new product innovations that cater to health needs and technical upgrades [4] - The trend of cross-industry collaboration is evident, as brands like Starbucks seek to redefine their market presence through beauty products [7] - The introduction of domestic brands in high-end retail spaces indicates a shift in consumer preferences and retail strategies [7] - The global expansion of Chinese beauty brands highlights their growing international competitiveness and cultural integration [8]