A股电池板块持续走低，宏工科技跌超7%，宁德时代跌超3%，华盛锂电、野马电池等多股跟跌。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yema Battery (605378) has experienced a decline in stock price and significant changes in its financial performance as of the first quarter of 2025 [1][3] - As of July 29, 2025, Yema Battery's stock closed at 20.12 yuan, down 2.28%, with a trading volume of 61,100 lots and a transaction amount of 124 million yuan [1] - The company reported total operating revenue of 241 million yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.09%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 50.27% to 11.97 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The company has a current ratio of 4.786, a quick ratio of 3.928, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 17.40% [1] - Yema Battery has made investments in 7 companies and participated in 21 bidding projects, indicating active engagement in business expansion [2] - The company holds 10 trademark registrations and 178 patents, along with 13 administrative licenses, showcasing its commitment to innovation and compliance [2]

[Key Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Key%20Highlights) Zhejiang Yema Battery Co., Ltd. forecasts a significant year-on-year decline in H1 2025 net profit and non-recurring net profit - Zhejiang Yema Battery Co., Ltd. anticipates net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 to **decrease by 46.45% to 64.03%** year-on-year, with non-recurring net profit **down 53.55% to 68.07%** year-on-year[2](index=2&type=chunk) 2025 Half-Year Performance Forecast (Estimated Range) | Indicator | Estimated Amount (CNY 10,000) | Year-on-Year Change (CNY 10,000) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders | 2,455.13 - 3,655.13 | Decrease 3,169.87 - 4,369.87 | Down 46.45% - 64.03% | | Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) | 1,979.64 - 2,879.64 | Decrease 3,319.83 - 4,219.83 | Down 53.55% - 68.07% | [I. Performance Forecast for the Current Period](index=1&type=section&id=I.%20Performance%20Forecast%20for%20the%20Current%20Period) This section details the company's performance forecast for H1 2025, including the reporting period and key financial estimates [(I) Performance Forecast Period](index=1&type=section&id=%28I%29%20Performance%20Forecast%20Period) This performance forecast covers the period from January 1 to June 30, 2025 - The performance forecast period is from January 1 to June 30, 2025[3](index=3&type=chunk) [(II) Details of Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=%28II%29%20Details%20of%20Performance%20Forecast) The company forecasts H1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders and non-recurring net profit to decline significantly year-on-year 2025 Half-Year Performance Forecast (Estimated Range) | Indicator | Estimated Amount (CNY 10,000) | Year-on-Year Change (CNY 10,000) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders | 2,455.13 - 3,655.13 | Decrease 3,169.87 - 4,369.87 | Down 46.45% - 64.03% | | Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) | 1,979.64 - 2,879.64 | Decrease 3,319.83 - 4,219.83 | Down 53.55% - 68.07% | [(III) Unaudited Performance Forecast](index=2&type=section&id=%28III%29%20Unaudited%20Performance%20Forecast) This performance forecast has not been audited by a certified public accountant - This performance forecast has not been audited by a certified public accountant[4](index=4&type=chunk) [II. Prior Period Performance Overview](index=2&type=section&id=II.%20Prior%20Period%20Performance%20Overview) This section provides an overview of the company's financial performance for the prior period (H1 2024) [(I) Total Profit](index=2&type=section&id=%28I%29%20Total%20Profit) In H1 2024, the company achieved a total profit of RMB 78.70 million, with corresponding net and non-recurring net profits Prior Period (H1 2024) Performance | Indicator | Amount (CNY 10,000) | | :--- | :--- | | Total Profit | 7,870.41 | | Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders | 6,825.00 | | Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) | 6,199.47 | [(II) Earnings Per Share](index=2&type=section&id=%28II%29%20Earnings%20Per%20Share) Earnings per share for the prior period (H1 2024) were RMB 0.48 - Earnings per share for the prior period were **CNY 0.48**[5](index=5&type=chunk) [III. Key Reasons for Performance Change in the Current Period](index=2&type=section&id=III.%20Key%20Reasons%20for%20Performance%20Change%20in%20the%20Current%20Period) This section outlines the primary factors for the company's performance changes, including core business and other financial impacts [(I) Impact of Main Business Operations](index=2&type=section&id=%28I%29%20Impact%20of%20Main%20Business%20Operations) Main business operations, including reduced export tax rebates and lower selling prices, are the primary drivers of the performance decline - Adjustments to China's export tax rebate policy, reducing the export battery product tax rebate rate from 13% to 9%, led to increased cost pressure in export operations and a year-on-year **decrease in gross profit margin**[6](index=6&type=chunk) - Due to market competition and industry trends, the selling prices of some of the company's products have decreased[6](index=6&type=chunk) - The company is actively responding to challenges by optimizing its marketing network, strengthening sales promotion (with **increased overseas sales** in the first half), initiating a special cost reduction and efficiency improvement plan, and actively advancing the construction of a Southeast Asian production base to optimize its global layout[6](index=6&type=chunk) [(II) Impact of Non-Operating Gains and Losses](index=2&type=section&id=%28II%29%20Impact%20of%20Non-Operating%20Gains%20and%20Losses) Non-operating gains and losses have no significant impact on the company's current period performance - Non-operating gains and losses have no significant impact on the company's performance[6](index=6&type=chunk) [(III) Impact of Accounting Treatment](index=2&type=section&id=%28III%29%20Impact%20of%20Accounting%20Treatment) Accounting treatment has no significant impact on the company's current period performance forecast - Accounting treatment has no significant impact on the company's current period performance forecast[6](index=6&type=chunk) [(IV) Other Impacts](index=2&type=section&id=%28IV%29%20Other%20Impacts) There are no other factors significantly impacting the company's current period performance forecast - The company has no other factors that significantly impact the current period performance forecast[6](index=6&type=chunk) [IV. Risk Warning](index=2&type=section&id=IV.%20Risk%20Warning) This section highlights the preliminary and unaudited nature of the performance forecast, with no other major uncertainties - This performance forecast is a preliminary calculation by the company's financial department based on its professional judgment and has not been audited by a certified public accountant[8](index=8&type=chunk) - The company has no significant uncertainties affecting the accuracy of this performance forecast[8](index=8&type=chunk) [V. Other Explanatory Matters](index=3&type=section&id=V.%20Other%20Explanatory%20Matters) This section clarifies that the forecast data is preliminary and advises investors to exercise caution - The forecast data is preliminary and unaudited by an accounting firm; the specific and accurate financial data will be subject to the company's disclosed 2025 half-year report[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Investors are advised to pay attention to investment risks[9](index=9&type=chunk)

野马电池（605378）公告，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为2455.13万元至 3655.13万元，同比减少3169.87万元至4369.87万元，下降46.45%至64.03%。预计2025年半年度实现归属 于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为1979.64万元至2879.64万元，同比减少3319.83万元至 4219.83万元，下降53.55%至68.07%。 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Yema Battery (605378) experienced a decline of 8.18% with a turnover rate of 9.44% and a trading volume of 548 million yuan, showing a fluctuation of 6.14% [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a daily price deviation of -8.57%, with a net buying amount of 5.1365 million yuan from brokerage seats [2] - The top five brokerage seats accounted for a total transaction of 68.5283 million yuan, with a buying amount of 36.8324 million yuan and a selling amount of 31.6959 million yuan, resulting in a net buying of 5.1365 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The largest buying brokerage was Guotai Junan Securities Headquarters, with a buying amount of 11.8405 million yuan, while the largest selling brokerage was Guojin Securities Shenzhen Branch, with a selling amount of 7.4129 million yuan [3] - The stock saw a net outflow of 5.0503 million yuan in main funds, with a net inflow of 0.1951 million yuan from large orders and a net outflow of 5.2454 million yuan from major funds [2] - Over the past five days, the main funds had a net inflow of 70.0875 million yuan [2] Group 3 - For the first quarter, Yema Battery reported a revenue of 241 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.09%, while the net profit was 11.9738 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 50.27% [2]

New Stock Issuance - The new stock "同宇新材" (code: 301630) is listed at an issuance price of 84.00[1] - "信通电子" (code: 001388) has an issuance price of 16.42[1] Rights Issues and Announcements - "济川药业" (code: 600566) has a tender offer period from June 18, 2025, to July 17, 2025[1] - "中程退" (code: 300208) has 13 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] - "退市锦港" (code: 600190) also has 13 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] - "恒立退" (code: 000622) has 10 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - "浙江东日" (code: 600113) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] - "汇金股份" (code: 300368) is noted for abnormal fluctuations[3]

证券代码：605378 证券简称：野马电池 公告编号：2025-019 浙江野马电池股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 浙江野马电池股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票于 2025 年 6 月 25 日、6 月 26 日、6 月 27 日连续三个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到 20%。 根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动的情形。 经公司自查并向公司实际控制人核实，截至本公告披露日，不存在应予 以披露而未披露的重大信息。 （一）生产经营情况。 经公司自查，公司目前经营活动一切正常，市场环境、行业政策没有发生重 大调整、生产成本和销售等情况没有出现大幅波动、内部生产经营秩序正常，公 司内外部经营环境未发生重大变化。 （二）重大事项情况。 经公司自查并向公司实际控制人余元康、陈恩乐、陈一军、余谷峰、陈科军、 余谷涌核实：截至本公告披露之日，除了在指定媒体上已公开披露的信息外，公 司及公司实际控制人不存在应予以披露而未披露的重大信息，包括但不 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [8]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance - \( \mu \): Drift rate - \( \kappa \): Mean reversion speed - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Correlated Wiener processes [8] 2. Model Name: Multi-Sector Timing Model (Scissor Difference Strategy) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the difference in the number of bullish and bearish signals among sector constituents to construct a timing strategy. If no bullish or bearish signals are present, the scissor difference is set to zero. The model aims to outperform sector indices [16]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Count the number of bullish and bearish signals for each sector's constituent stocks daily. - Compute the scissor difference as the difference between bullish and bearish signals. - If both counts are zero, the scissor difference is set to zero. - Construct a timing strategy based on the scissor difference ratio [16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model historically outperformed all sector indices, demonstrating excellent backtesting performance [16]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 11.85% (down 0.88% WoW) - SSE 500: 14.35% (down 1.59% WoW) - CSI 1000: 18.06% (down 0.42% WoW) - CSI 300: 12.64% (down 0.73% WoW) [10] 2. Multi-Sector Timing Model - **Sector Outperformance**: The model outperformed all sector indices, achieving a 100% success rate in backtesting [16]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Factor Construction Idea**: Shape-based signals are derived from historical K-line patterns, including bullish patterns (e.g., "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," "Manjianghong") and bearish patterns (e.g., "Hanging Line," "Paradise Line," "Dark Cloud Cover"). These patterns indicate potential price reversals [24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify specific K-line patterns based on predefined criteria. - Evaluate the historical performance of these patterns in predicting price movements. - Use the patterns to generate timing signals for individual stocks [24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Bullish patterns like "Golden Needle Bottom" and "Rocket Launch" demonstrated strong positive predictive power [24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Signal Statistics**: - Positive signals: 2,699 occurrences, with an average future high-point success rate of 28.25% - Negative signals: 3,525 occurrences, with an average future low-point success rate of 71.88% [13] 2. Sector Timing Signals - **Bullish Sectors**: Home Appliances, Comprehensive, Communication, Textile & Apparel, Consumer Services, Transportation, Petrochemicals [19] 3. Stock-Specific Signals - **Consecutive Bullish Signals**: - 5-day signals: Stocks like Kailong Co. and Shipu Testing [21] - 4-day signals: Stocks like Jiangnan Chemical, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Nandu Property [22][23] - **Special Bullish Patterns**: - Stocks like Retired Longyu ("Arrow on the String") and Suotong Development ("Manjianghong") [25][26] 4. Broker Gold Stock Signals - **Highlighted Stocks**: BYD, Feilihua, Wancheng Group, Sichuan Road & Bridge, Wolong Electric Drive, Lansheng Co., PetroChina, Dongpeng Beverage [29][33]

Core Viewpoint - Yema Battery's Vietnam factory is expected to commence production in the first quarter of next year, but the production costs will be higher than those in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Production and Costs - The Vietnam production base is projected to start operations in Q1 2024 [1] - Production costs in Vietnam will be higher than those in the domestic market under similar conditions [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for Q1 2025 is expected to decline by 50.27% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in export tax rebate policies [1] - The export tax rebate rate for battery products has been reduced from 13% to 9%, contributing to the profit decline [1] - There has been a decrease in the selling price of certain products, further impacting profitability [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to deepen the construction of overseas direct sales channels and optimize its product structure [1] - Yema Battery aims to leverage its alkaline battery technology advantages to consolidate market share [1]

A股固态电池板块持续活跃，野马电池直线封板，科恒股份、华盛锂电涨近8%，璞泰来、信宇人、金 银河、盟固利等跟涨。 订阅A股市场资讯 +订阅 ...