Key Points Summary of Kaili New Materials Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kaili New Materials - **Industry**: Chemical Industry, specifically focusing on catalysts Financial Performance - **Revenue**: 1.435 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 25% [2] - **Net Profit**: 83 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29% [2] - **Net Profit (Excluding Non-recurring Items)**: 88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51% [2] - **Sales Volume**: Increased by 70% year-on-year, driven by the ramp-up of PVC mercury-free catalysts and BDO catalysts [2] Market Dynamics - **PVC Mercury-free Catalyst Demand**: Expected to gradually replace mercury processes from 2027 to 2032, with market demand projected to reach tens of thousands of tons by 2032 [2][6] - **Market Share**: Kaili New Materials holds over 60% market share in the PVC mercury-free catalyst segment, being one of the few stable suppliers [2][8] - **Catalyst Demand**: Each ton of PVC requires approximately 0.68 tons of economic catalyst, indicating significant demand for catalysts [7] Production Capacity and Plans - **Current Production Capacity**: 700 tons/year for PVC catalysts [10] - **Planned Expansion**: A new production line of 3,000 tons has been planned, with land and environmental assessments completed [10] - **Expected Supply for 2026**: Anticipated supply of 400-500 tons, with existing orders of over 200 tons [9] Product Pricing and Margins - **Processing Fees**: Ranges from 100,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton, with a gross margin of approximately 40% [11][14] - **Future Pricing Potential**: Research on precious metal reduction and lifespan extension may provide room for price increases [11] Growth Drivers - **Key Growth Factors**: 1. Recovery in the chemical industry and increasing downstream demand [3] 2. Breakthroughs in new products like PVC mercury-free catalysts and domestic BDO substitutes [3] 3. Favorable policies such as water pollution control regulations [3] 4. Rising precious metal prices enhancing profit margins [3] Segment Performance - **Revenue Composition**: - Fine Chemicals: 75% of revenue, with pharmaceuticals at 42% (40% growth) [19] - Basic Chemicals: 20% of revenue, with a 96% year-on-year increase [19] - Future growth engines (hydrogen production, storage, and fuel cells): 2.8% [19] Risks and Challenges - **Precious Metal Price Volatility**: Limited impact on profits due to pricing contracts based on current market rates, with risk exposure controlled within 200 million yuan [20] - **Customer Dependency**: Some key customers, like Zhongtai Chemical, have not renewed orders, which could impact future sales [10] Other Notable Developments - **BDO Catalyst Sales**: Achieved sales in the hundred-ton range, with future market potential exceeding 3,000 tons and an estimated gross margin of around 50% [4][17] - **Propane Dehydrogenation Catalyst**: Currently in trial production, with results expected by the end of 2026 [4][18] - **Investment in Hydrogenated Nitrile Rubber**: A subsidiary has been established with a production capacity of 1,000 tons/year, aiming to expand to 3,000 tons/year [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Kaili New Materials has shown significant financial performance and trading activity, with a notable increase in stock price and trading volume on January 29 [1] - On January 29, Kaili New Materials' stock price increased by 7.58%, with a trading volume of 711 million yuan. The net financing purchase on that day was 12.97 million yuan, with a total financing and securities balance of 177 million yuan [1] - The company has a high financing balance, accounting for 2.77% of its circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile level over the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Kaili New Materials increased by 3.04% to 6,026, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 2.95% to 21,690 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Kaili New Materials achieved an operating income of 1.435 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 83.09 million yuan, up 29.74% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Kaili New Materials has distributed a total of 372 million yuan in dividends, with 222 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) industry, particularly regarding the transition to mercury-free production methods as mandated by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in China [1] Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Push for Mercury-Free PVC**: The government is accelerating the transition to mercury-free catalysts in the PVC industry, which is expected to lead to the elimination of outdated production capacities [1] - **Impact of Capital Expenditure**: The transition to mercury-free production requires significant one-time capital expenditures. Smaller and higher-cost producers may lack the financial resources to complete this transformation, potentially leading to their exit from the market [1] - **Supply-Side Contraction**: The forced exit of less competitive producers will likely shrink the supply side of the industry, optimizing the overall supply-demand balance and alleviating excess pressure, which could promote industry profitability recovery [1] - **Current PVC Pricing**: As of January 28, PVC prices are at 4,615 RMB per ton, with a price difference of -111.5 RMB per ton. These figures are positioned at the 4.3% and 13.6% percentiles, respectively, since 2016 [1] Additional Insights - **Core Bottleneck of Mercury-Free Catalysts**: The industry is expected to enter a phase where technological advancements are realized, and companies with mature industrial capabilities are likely to benefit first [2] - **Key Players in the Market**: Notable companies mentioned include: - Zhongtai Chemical (2.6 million tons) - Xinjiang Tianye (1.34 million tons) - Junzheng Group (800,000 tons) - Chlor-Alkali Chemical (480,000 tons) - Jiahua Energy (300,000 tons) - Sanyou Chemical (525,000 tons) - Kaili New Materials (leader in mercury-free catalysts) [2] - **Risk Factors**: Potential risks include the possibility that the transition to mercury-free production may not proceed as expected and increased competition within the industry [2]

Summary of Chlor-Alkali Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chlor-alkali industry, particularly the impact of the Minamata Convention on mercury and the transition towards mercury-free production methods in the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) sector [1][2]. Key Points 1. **Minamata Convention on Mercury**: The convention aims to protect human health and the environment from the adverse effects of mercury emissions and releases. It has become a focal point in recent negotiations regarding the chlor-alkali industry [1][2]. 2. **Transition to Mercury-Free PVC Production**: The Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasizes accelerating the transition to mercury-free PVC production. This includes the development of mercury-free catalysts and the phasing out of outdated production capacities [1]. 3. **Impact on PVC Production**: The use of mercuric chloride as a catalyst in the acetylene method for PVC production poses environmental and health risks. The convention will prohibit the mining of primary mercury by 2032, making it impossible to use mercuric chloride in PVC production [2]. 4. **Methods for Achieving Mercury-Free PVC**: - **Gold-Based Catalysts**: This method requires significant production line modifications and incurs higher costs, estimated to increase the cost of PVC production by approximately 100 CNY per ton. Smaller PVC producers may struggle to afford these changes [2]. - **Ethylene Method**: The investment cost for ethylene-based PVC production is higher, averaging 5,973 CNY per ton compared to 3,328 CNY per ton for the acetylene method. Both methods will increase costs for acetylene-based PVC producers, with the gold-based catalyst route being the more favorable option [3]. 5. **Market Implications**: The transition to mercury-free production is expected to lead to the exit of smaller, less profitable PVC companies from the market, as they may not be able to bear the increased costs associated with the new production methods [3]. Beneficiary Companies - **Xinjiang Tianye**: A leading player benefiting from the transition - **Zhongtai Chemical**: Another key beneficiary - **Chlor-Alkali Chemical**: Engaged in ethylene-based PVC production - **Jiahua Energy**: Also involved in ethylene-based PVC - **Junzheng Group**: Positioned on the cost-effective side of acetylene-based PVC - **Beiyuan Group**: Lower-cost acetylene-based PVC producer - **Kaili New Materials**: Focused on gold-based catalysts [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that leading companies are expected to benefit significantly from the trend of carbon reduction, with a stable yet slightly strong market structure for potassium chloride [3] - The PVC industry is undergoing a transformation towards mercury-free production, driven by regulatory pressures and environmental concerns, which will increase production costs for traditional methods [5][6] - The report notes that the chlor-alkali industry is experiencing significant losses, with net profits dropping from 182 RMB/ton in Q3 2025 to -49 RMB/ton in Q4 2025, indicating a critical need for capacity exit [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The PVC industry is facing a transition to mercury-free production methods, which will require significant investment and may lead to the exit of smaller, less profitable companies [6][7] - The Water Mercury Convention aims to phase out mercury use in PVC production by 2032, impacting production costs and methods [6] Market Dynamics - The chlor-alkali sector is currently in a state of widespread loss, with the profitability of caustic soda declining, making it difficult to maintain the current production balance [7] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC and anticipated restrictions on high-energy-consuming industries are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity [7] Beneficiary Companies - Potential beneficiaries from these industry changes include Xinjiang Tianye, Zhongtai Chemical, Chlor-alkali Chemical, Jiahua Energy, Junzheng Group, Beiyuan Group, and Kaili New Materials [8]

基础化工 基础化工 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《降碳趋势下龙头企业有望充分受 益，氯化钾市场格局稳中偏强—行业 周报》-2026.1.25 《涤纶长丝行业新一轮减产开启，草 铵膦供需向好、价格上涨—行业周报》 -2026.1.18 《农药出口退税率取消或下调，行业 反内卷持续深化—农药行业点评报 告》-2026.1.17 水俣公约等多重因素加快氯碱落后产能退出，行业有 望迎来历史性新变化 ——行业点评报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 宋梓荣（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | songzirong@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525070002 | 事件：生态环境部强调要加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型 据生态环境部 1 月 26 日消息，生态环境部固体废物与化学品司有关负责同志就 《关于发布含汞电池等 12 种 ...

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