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中原证券通信行业2026年度策略:智启新质 算力互联破浪前行
智通财经网· 2025-11-25 02:52
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyuan Securities indicates that a series of AI industry catalytic events will occur in 2026, strengthening the leading position of top optical module manufacturers due to their technological, customer, and scale advantages. The current valuation of the communication industry index is below the ten-year average, and the industry maintains a "stronger than the market" investment rating based on performance growth expectations and valuation levels [1][2]. Summary by Sections Review of 2025 - In early 2025, the DeepSeek large model boosted market sentiment, and the three major operators completed the deployment of DeepSeek computing power private networks, enhancing their cloud service capabilities. Domestic cloud manufacturers provided positive capital expenditure guidance, leading to an increase in industry valuations. However, from February to April, the industry index experienced significant fluctuations due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies and future demand for optical modules. By mid-April, the easing of tariff policies and validation of AI computing power demand led to a gradual recovery in the industry index and valuations. In late July, North American cloud manufacturers raised their capital expenditure guidance, further catalyzing the industry. Since September, leading manufacturers faced short-term performance fatigue due to product iterations and customer structure adjustments, raising concerns about unclear downstream business models [2]. Outlook for 2026 - A series of AI industry catalytic events are expected, including the mass production of NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin GPU, the release of Google's new large model Gemini, and clear capital expenditure guidance from cloud manufacturers. AI smartphones equipped with large models are anticipated to become personalized smart assistants, potentially driving the next wave of smartphone upgrades. The development of key 6G technologies by telecom operators is expected to accelerate revenue growth from AI computing power. The report is optimistic about the high industry prosperity and strong growth potential of optical modules, optical devices, optical chips, and the increasing penetration of AI smartphones, as well as the stable operations of quality dividend assets in telecom operators [3][4]. Capital Expenditure Outlook for Leading Cloud Manufacturers - The demand for 800G is increasing, and the industry is transitioning from 800G to 1.6T technology. Leading optical module manufacturers are expected to further highlight their advantages due to technological leadership, stable customer relationships, and scalable delivery capabilities. The development of AI is driving the construction of large data centers, benefiting optical device manufacturers. The long R&D and expansion cycles for optical chips create high barriers in technology, talent, customer validation, and capital, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap for certain optical chips. The increasing demand for domestic controllable solutions is expected to translate into performance for domestic computing power. Recommended companies to watch include: NewEase, Huagong Technology, Guangxun Technology, Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Photon, and Taicheng Light [4]. AI Smartphones and Market Trends - Generative AI smartphones are set to provide users with new interactive experiences, multimodal content generation capabilities, personalized services, and innovative application ecosystems. The continuous improvement of edge AI computing power and large model capabilities is expected to further increase the market penetration of AI smartphones. Innovations and upgrades in AI smartphones are likely to lead to higher average selling prices and improved profit margins. The growth in edge AI shipments will drive sustained growth in core product lines of consumer electronics components [5]. Telecom Operators' Performance - The three major telecom operators are considered quality dividend assets with high dividend yield potential, offering cash dividends twice a year. The quality of traditional business revenue is improving, and a decrease in capital expenditure is expected to lower future depreciation and amortization costs, maintaining stable operations. Additionally, telecom operators are likely to leverage their advantages in data centers, big data, and network infrastructure to reconstruct business models with the help of AI. Investment recommendations include focusing on the optical module, optical device, and optical chip sectors, as well as AI smartphone and telecom operator sectors [6].
光通信模块板块领涨,源杰科技上涨5.0%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-25 01:59
每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯,11月25日,光通信模块板块领涨,上涨2.41%。其中,源杰科技涨幅为5.0%,长芯博创涨 幅为4.83%,中际旭创涨幅为4.42%,新易盛、联特科技、凌云光涨幅超2%。 ...
研报掘金丨西部证券:予源杰科技“增持”评级,盈利能力有望继续提升
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-24 09:09
西部证券研报指出,源杰科技2025前三季度归母净利润1.06亿元,同比扭亏为盈,Q3归母净利润 0.60亿元,环比+86.67%。25Q3CW光源产品放量增收,毛利率同、环比改善。公司持续加大对高速率 光芯片、大功率光芯片、芯片工艺等相关技术和产品的研发投入,持续提升产品竞争力。伴随产品良率 提升和高毛利产品占比提升,公司的盈利能力有望继续提升。预计公司25/26/27年归母净利润1.8亿 元/3.8亿元/5.2亿元,对应P/E为254/121/90倍,给予"增持"评级。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱: news_center@staff.hexun.com (责任编辑:贺翀 ) ...
通信行业年度策略:智启新质,算力互联破浪前行
Zhongyuan Securities· 2025-11-24 08:15
Core Insights - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the communication industry, highlighting its growth potential and favorable valuation levels [1][5][12] - The communication industry index has shown significant performance, ranking second among 30 major industry indices with a 60.87% increase as of November 20, 2025 [12][14] - The report emphasizes the optimistic outlook for AI-related developments, particularly in AI computing and cloud services, which are expected to drive industry growth [4][5][45] Market Review and Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the communication industry achieved a total revenue of CNY 19,753.67 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.30%, while net profit reached CNY 1,886.40 billion, up 6.95% [18] - The overall gross margin for the communication industry was 28.45%, with a net margin of 10.19% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating stable profitability [19] - The telecommunications operators segment reported a revenue of CNY 14,819.21 billion, growing by 0.57%, and a net profit of CNY 1,548.98 billion, increasing by 4.30% [35] Segment Performance - The optical communication segment (including optical modules, devices, and chips) saw a revenue of CNY 795.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.14%, with net profit soaring by 116.86% [41] - The telecommunications equipment segment recorded a revenue of CNY 1,390.0 billion, growing by 11.2%, while the consumer electronics components segment also grew by 11.1% [21] - The cable segment achieved a revenue of CNY 464.54 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.99%, driven by increasing demand across multiple applications [46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the optical module/device/chip sector, such as NewEase, Huagong Technology, and Guangxun Technology, due to their strong growth prospects [5][41] - For AI mobile phones, companies like Xunwei Communication and ZTE are highlighted as key players to watch [5][41] - The telecommunications operators, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, are recommended for their stable operations and high dividend yields [5][41]
8只科创板股获融资净买入额超2000万元
(文章来源:证券时报网) 从个股来看,11月21日有217只科创板个股获融资净买入,净买入金额在2000万元以上的有8只。其中, 德科立获融资净买入额居首,净买入1.56亿元;融资净买入金额居前的还有爱科赛博、源杰科技、海博 思创、阳光诺和、瑞联新材等股。 Wind统计显示,11月21日,科创板两融余额合计2517.72亿元,较上一交易日减少47.46亿元。其中,融 资余额合计2509.07亿元,较上一交易日减少47.11亿元;融券余额合计8.65亿元,较上一交易日减少0.35 亿元。 ...
万丰奥威目标价涨幅近90%;太阳能等7家公司评级被调低
评级调低方面,11月17日至11月23日,券商调低上市公司评级达到7家次,最新数据包括了华创证券对太阳能的评 级从"强推"调低至"推荐",西部证券对源杰科技的评级从"买入"调低至"增持",华创证券对泰坦科技的评级从"强 推"调低至"推荐"。 | | | | 7家最新被调低评级的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 此前评级 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 000591 | 太阳能 | 华创证券 | 强推 | 推荐 | 电力 | | 688498 | 源杰科技 | 西部证券 | 采入 | 増持 | 半导体 | | 688133 | 泰坦科技 | 华创证券 | 强推 | 推荐 | 化学制品 | | 000938 | 紫光股份 | 西部证券 | 买人 | 増持 | IT服务 | | 688232 | 新点软件 | 中泰证券 | 买人 | 増持 | 软件开发 | | 688056 | 菜伯泰科 | 华创证券 | 賀推 | 推荐 | 通用设备 | | 002541 | 鸿路钢构 | 华创证券 | 賀推 | 推荐 | 专业工 ...
万丰奥威目标价涨幅近90% 太阳能等7家公司评级被调低|券商评级观察
南财投研通数据显示,11月17日至11月23日,券商给予上市公司目标价共118次,按最新收盘价计算,目标价涨幅 排名居前的公司有万丰奥威、光迅科技、太辰光,目标价涨幅分别为89.64%、81.99%、71.51%,分别属于汽车零 部件、通信设备、通信设备行业。 评级调低方面,11月17日至11月23日,券商调低上市公司评级达到7家次,最新数据包括了华创证券对太阳能的评 级从"强推"调低至"推荐",西部证券对源杰科技的评级从"买入"调低至"增持",华创证券对泰坦科技的评级从"强 推"调低至"推荐"。 | | | | 7家最新被调低评级的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 此前评级 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 000591 | 太阳能 | 华创证券 | 强推 | 推荐 | 电力 | | 688498 | 源杰科技 | 西部证券 | 采入 | 増持 | 半导体 | | 688133 | 泰坦科技 | 华创证券 | 强推 | 推荐 | 化学制品 | | 000938 | 紫光股份 | 西部证券 | 买人 | 増持 ...
万丰奥威目标价涨幅近90%;太阳能等7家公司评级被调低|券商评级观察
(原标题:万丰奥威目标价涨幅近90%;太阳能等7家公司评级被调低|券商评级观察) 评级调高方面,11月17日至11月23日,券商调高上市公司评级达到3家次,最新数据包括了财信证券对 华东重机的评级从"持有"调高至"增持",华泰证券对中国石化的评级从"增持"调高至"买入",中信证券 对鸿远电子的评级从"增持"调高至"买入"。 评级调低方面,11月17日至11月23日,券商调低上市公司评级达到7家次,最新数据包括了华创证券对 太阳能的评级从"强推"调低至"推荐",西部证券对源杰科技的评级从"买入"调低至"增持",华创证券对 泰坦科技的评级从"强推"调低至"推荐"。 首次覆盖方面,11月17日至11月23日券商共给出了77次首次覆盖,其中德力佳获得国信证券给予"优于 大市"评级,圆通速递、延江股份获得中泰证券分别给予"增持""买入"评级,远东股份获得天风证券给 予"买入"评级,蓝思科技获得华金证券给予"买入"评级。 免责声明:文中涉及的观点、数据、个股等要素仅供参考,不构成投资建议,操作风险自担,投资有风 险,入市需谨慎。 南财投研通数据显示,11月17日至11月23日,券商给予上市公司目标价共118次,按最新收盘 ...
源杰科技(688498):跟踪点评:25Q3CW光源产品放量增收,毛利率同、环比改善
Western Securities· 2025-11-23 01:21
公司动态跟踪 | 源杰科技 25Q3 CW 光源产品放量增收,毛利率同、环比改善 产品结构优化拉动毛利率同、环比改善,持续加大研发投入。25Q1/Q2/Q3 公司毛利率分别为 44.64%/51.71%/61.62%,25Q3 毛利率同比+39.64pct、 环比+9.91pct;费用率上,25Q3 公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 2.47%/7.13%/15.71%/-1.81%,四费率合计 23.50%,同比-11.9pct、环比 +3.41pct。在研发方面,公司持续加大研发投入,研发费用达到 2801 万元, 占营业收入的比例为 15.71%。 产能:美国工厂处于基础设施建设与设备定价阶段,预计 26 年起逐渐释放 产能。公司将持续加强设备投入,预计 25 年底-26Q2 产能逐步释放,26 年 产能有望加速释放。 投资建议:公司持续加大对高速率光芯片、大功率光芯片、芯片工艺等相关 技术和产品的研发投入,持续提升产品竞争力。伴随产品良率提升和高毛利 产品占比提升,公司的盈利能力有望继续提升。预计公司 25/26/27 年归母净 利润 1.8 亿元/3.8 亿元/5.2 亿元,对应 P/E 为 ...
近一个月超140只个股评级调整食品饮料行业上调最多
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a notable shift towards stock selection and sector rotation, with over 50 stocks upgraded and more than 90 downgraded in ratings, indicating a more cautious market sentiment and a focus on structural opportunities in technology, consumption, and dividend sectors [1][2][3]. Stock Rating Adjustments - Over the past month, 52 stocks have been upgraded, with the food and beverage sector having the highest number of upgrades at 7 stocks, followed by electronics and power equipment with 5 each, and pharmaceuticals and light industry with 4 each [1]. - Conversely, 92 stocks have been downgraded across 25 industries, with the automotive sector leading with 12 downgrades, followed by food and beverage with 10, and basic chemicals with 9 [2][3]. Sector Analysis - In the food and beverage sector, several companies such as Baba Foods and Ximai Foods have seen their ratings upgraded due to improved revenue growth and store efficiency [2]. - The electronics sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in terminal demand, with companies like Crystal Technology and Green Link Technology receiving upgrades [2]. - The automotive sector has faced downgrades due to short-term performance pressures, with companies like Meihu and New Spring seeing their ratings lowered [3]. Market Trends and Strategies - Analysts suggest that the market is moving towards a balanced style, with a preference for large-cap stocks and a potential shift towards value stocks [4]. - The focus on growth stocks remains, but the key is whether the underlying valuation logic changes, which could drive future performance [4]. - Investment opportunities are seen in themes such as anti-involution and dividend stocks, with a particular emphasis on technology sectors that align with national strategies and possess real technological barriers [5].