[Table_Main] 行业研究|工业|资本货物 证券研究报告 资本货物行业研究报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 国产化率稳步提升，多域共振万亿蓝海 ——碳纤维行业深度报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 碳纤维万亿蓝海开启，2026 年国产化率冲击 90% 根据赛奥碳纤维数据，2024 年中国碳纤维需求达 8.4 万吨（增速 21.7%），国产化率突破 80%，预计 2026 年将达 90%，复合增长率超 25%。航空航天、风电、低空经济三大场景占比超过 60%，机器人、 新能源车潜力待爆。国产龙头吉林化纤、中复神鹰、新创碳谷产能全 球前十，出口万吨级风电拉挤板，重构全球供应版图。 低空经济、风电、机器人等领域共振，碳纤维需求爆发在即 2026 年中国低空经济规模将破万亿，eVTOL、无人机等核心载体对碳 纤维需求激增；全球风电叶片碳纤维需求预计 2030 年将达 20 万吨， 碳纤维需求量呈现显著增长态势；机器人轻量化趋势下，碳纤维机械 臂成为标配，未来五年中国市场规模望达 7800 亿元，碳纤维年需求 或超万吨。 政策定调+技术攻坚，碳纤维全链生态全面成型 ...

吉林化纤成立于1988年11月9日，于1996年8月2日在深圳证券交易所上市，注册地址和办公地址均为吉林 省吉林市。公司是全球重要的粘胶长丝生产商之一，在粘胶纤维生产领域具备一定技术优势。 公司主营业务为粘胶纤维的生产和销售，所属申万行业为基础化工 - 化学纤维 - 粘胶，所属概念板块包括 低空经济、中盘、融资融券、核聚变、超导概念、核电。 经营业绩：营收行业第二，净利润第三 2025年三季度，吉林化纤营业收入40.19亿元，行业排名2/4，高于行业平均数26.88亿元和中位数24.24亿 元，行业第一名新乡化纤营收57.4亿元。主营业务构成中，粘胶长丝14.84亿元占比56.30%，粘胶短纤6.47 亿元占比24.55%，碳纤维产品4.43亿元占比16.83%，其他6094.12万元占比2.31%。当期净利润3018.59万 元，行业排名3/4，低于行业平均数4693.98万元和中位数5627.29万元，行业第一名新乡化纤净利润1.33亿 元，第二名恒天海龙8235.98万元。 资产负债率高于同业平均，毛利率高于同业平均 偿债能力方面，2025年三季度吉林化纤资产负债率为64.07%，高于去年同期的59.1 ...

吉林化纤(000420.SZ)发布2025年三季度报告，该公司前三季度营业收入为40.19亿元，同比增长 43.62%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润为3264.75万元，同比减少47.41%。归属于上市公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润为2974.12万元，同比减少47.25%。基本每股收益为0.0133元。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301057 | 汇隆新材 | 25.18 | 1.98% | 2.74万 | | 6798.88万 | | 000420 | 吉林化纤 | 4.15 | 1.72% | 70.61万 | | 2.91亿 | | 000936 | 华西股份 | 7.67 | 1.19% | 40.87万 | | 3.15亿 | | 600810 | 神马股份 | 9.61 | 0.84% | 24.18万 | | 2.31亿 | | 600889 | 南京化纤 | 15.35 | 0.52% | 8.45万 | | 1.31亿 | | 000782 | 恒申新材 | 5.44 | 0.18% | 15.81万 | | 8609.04万 | | 920077 | 吉林峡谷 | 14.93 | 0.00% | 16.66万 | | 2.57亿 | | 603073 | 彩蝶实业 | 18.66 | -0.16% | 1.73万 | | 3246.79万 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Jilin Chemical Fiber has launched the second phase of its annual production project for 35,000 tons of biomass new artificial silk, enhancing its competitiveness in the artificial silk sector and solidifying its position as an industry leader [1] - The project emphasizes green and sustainable development, focusing on intelligent upgrades of production lines and breakthroughs in high-end products, with an additional capacity of 5,000 tons and a digitalization rate exceeding 70% [1] - The production line is customized for high-end market segments such as velvet and georgette, serving as a raw material base for well-known domestic and international brands like PRADA, ZARA, Uniqlo, and Langzi [1] Group 2 - Jilin Chemical Fiber is accelerating the advancement of its next-generation artificial silk fiber project, which is expected to be fully operational by 2026, contributing to the company's high-quality development [6]

Group 1 - The chemical fiber sector increased by 0.85% on October 23, with Montai High-tech leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3922.41, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13025.45, also up 0.22% [1] - Montai High-tech's stock price rose by 7.45% to 33.89, with a trading volume of 67,600 hands and a transaction value of 228 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The chemical fiber sector experienced a net outflow of 85.0354 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 64.18 million yuan [2] - The stock of Zhongfu Shenying fell by 3.28% to 25.68, with a trading volume of 63,300 hands and a transaction value of 163 million yuan [2] - The trading data indicates a mixed performance among individual stocks, with some experiencing significant declines while others showed modest gains [2][3] Group 3 - Main funds showed a net inflow of 9.2529 million yuan for Heng Tian Hai Long, while retail investors had a net outflow of 578.58 million yuan [3] - Taihe New Materials had a net inflow of 873.11 million yuan from main funds, but also saw a net outflow from retail investors [3] - The overall fund flow indicates varying levels of investor confidence across different stocks within the chemical fiber sector [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative role of thermoplastic composites in the automotive manufacturing landscape, particularly in the context of the electric vehicle (EV) industry, emphasizing their advantages in lightweighting, recyclability, and safety performance [1][9]. Industry Overview - Thermoplastic composites are defined as composite materials made from thermoplastic polymers reinforced with various fibers, such as carbon and glass fibers, specifically applied in the EV sector [3]. - The market size for China's thermoplastic composites in the EV sector is projected to reach 13.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, and is expected to grow to 16.7 billion yuan by 2025 [1][9]. Industry Policies - Recent policies, such as the Shanghai government's action plan for high-quality development in low-altitude economy, emphasize the integration of advanced materials like thermoplastic composites into strategic development [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan for the construction materials industry supports the application of composite materials in various sectors, including automotive [5]. Industry Value Chain - The thermoplastic composites industry in China has established a complete value chain, from raw material supply (fibers and resins) to manufacturing and final application in EVs [6]. - Carbon fiber, a key reinforcement material, significantly enhances the mechanical properties and lightweight characteristics of composites, contributing to the performance of EV components [6]. Market Trends - The global market for thermoplastic composites in the EV sector is expected to grow from 52.11 million tons in 2024 to 58.28 million tons in 2025, and further to 94.35 million tons by 2030 [8][9]. - The rapid growth in EV production and sales in China, from 340,500 units in 2015 to 12.89 million units in 2024, drives the demand for thermoplastic composites [6]. Competitive Landscape - The industry features a mix of international leaders like DuPont and domestic players such as Kingfa Technology and Nanjing Julong, creating a diverse competitive environment [10]. - Kingfa Technology reported a revenue of 31.64 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.5% [11]. Future Development Trends - Innovations in material systems are anticipated, including the development of self-healing and shape-memory thermoplastic composites, enhancing safety and longevity [12]. - The integration of digital and biological manufacturing technologies is expected to revolutionize production processes, leading to intelligent upgrades in composite manufacturing [14]. - A new circular economy model is being proposed, focusing on programmable degradation materials and blockchain technology for material traceability, aligning with the environmental goals of the EV industry [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [1] Core Views - The profitability of viscose filament remains stable, and the carbon fiber industry is expected to rebound from its low point [4] - The company reported a revenue of 2.635 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.08% [6] - The viscose filament segment continues to be the main source of profit for the company, contributing 1.484 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for 56.3% of total revenue [6] - The carbon fiber segment has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching 443 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 368.31% [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 56 million yuan, 110 million yuan, and 188 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.02, 0.04, and 0.08 yuan [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3.883 billion yuan in 2024, 5.340 billion yuan in 2025, 5.775 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.282 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 3.9%, 37.5%, 8.1%, and 8.8% respectively [5] - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 102.2% in 2025 and 96.0% in 2026 [5] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 1,085.98, with future PE ratios expected to decrease to 183, 93, and 54 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the growth and current status of China's synthetic fiber industry, highlighting production statistics and future trends [1] Industry Overview - In August 2025, China's synthetic fiber production reached 6.8 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of synthetic fibers in China was 52.773 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 5.7% [1] Companies Mentioned - The article lists several companies involved in the synthetic fiber industry, including Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xin Fengming, Tongkun Co., Hengli Petrochemical, Jilin Chemical Fiber, Huafeng Chemical, Aoyang Health, Taihe New Materials, and Jiangnan High Fiber [1] Research Report - The insights are based on a report by Zhiyan Consulting titled "2025-2031 China Synthetic Fiber Industry Market Status Investigation and Development Trend Judgment Report" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing a recovery phase, marked by significant revenue growth among leading companies and increased investment in production capacity and technology upgrades [4][8]. Industry Performance - The carbon fiber sector has shown a strong performance in 2025, with notable increases in stock prices and revenue for key players. For instance, Zhongjian Technology reported a revenue of 464 million yuan, up 59.46% year-on-year, while Jilin Chemical Fiber's carbon fiber revenue surged by 368.31% to 443 million yuan [4]. - The overall industry is witnessing a recovery in operational rates, with the current operating rate at 61.52%, an increase of 10.02 percentage points since the beginning of the year [5]. Market Dynamics - The demand for carbon fiber is expanding into new applications, particularly in low-altitude economy, automotive, and consumer electronics sectors. Companies like Xiaomi and eVTOL are exploring carbon fiber applications in their products [5]. - The average price of mainstream carbon fiber models in East China has remained stable, with T300-12K priced at 85 yuan/kg as of August [5]. Application Growth - In aerospace, carbon fiber is increasingly utilized, with Boeing 787 using 50% carbon fiber composite materials and the C919 aircraft using approximately 12% [6]. - The automotive sector is projected to see a demand of about 10,000 tons of carbon fiber in 2024, increasing to 14,400 tons by 2025, driven by the rise of new energy vehicles [6]. Wind Power Sector - The wind power industry is also contributing to carbon fiber demand, with an expected global requirement of 44,000 tons in 2024, increasing to 80,000 tons by 2025. China is anticipated to consume about half of this demand [7]. Future Outlook - The carbon fiber industry is transitioning from a recovery phase to a period of steady growth, supported by stable prices, increased operational rates, and a shift in applications towards emerging markets [8].