热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 李薇 2025年纯苯震荡下跌运行，1月-2月中旬上涨，2月中旬至5月初震荡下跌，5月至6月小幅修复。随后进 入阴跌阶段，年底围绕在5300元/吨上下波动。2025年纯苯均价为6189.22元/吨，较2024年均价8308元/ 吨下跌2118.78元/吨，跌幅25.51%。年内最高价7790元/吨在2月12日出现，最低价是11月11日的5275元/ 吨。 除了价格的长期阴跌，2025年的苯经历了季节性指数大幅偏离、常规价格驱动逻辑失灵、进口量与主港 库存走势分化等等，本文将一一为您详细呈现。 季节性偏离拉大 从近五年纯苯价格波动来看，2025年长期低于往年：在5300-7800元/吨的主流区间波动，除了1-2月迎来 开门红外，2025年其他月份价格均低于过去五年均价。从季节性特点上看，2025年价格的季节性特点与 近十年差异略大。 2025年3-5月份均明显低于季节性指数，3-5月的主要驱动逻辑在国内终端复工不及预期，下游大面积亏 损，且部分下游已经连续亏损时间较长，市场的分歧心态明显开始偏向空头一方，加上纯苯二级下游库 存明显高 ...

Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a positive outlook due to rising wool prices and a tight supply-demand balance, with recommendations to focus on leading companies exploring new product lines for growth [5][6] - The report highlights the potential of companies like Li Ning, which is expected to benefit from its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee for the 2025-2028 period, leveraging the upcoming Los Angeles Olympics to enhance brand and performance [5] - The report also emphasizes the growth opportunities in the home textile sector, particularly for companies like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textile, which are capitalizing on the rising sleep economy [5] Textile and Apparel Industry Review - During the period from January 10 to January 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.29%. The textile and apparel sector (SW) decreased by 0.38%, ranking 22nd among 31 primary industries [13][15] - The report indicates that the latest PE (TTM) for the textile and apparel industry is 20.75X, with historical highs and lows of 57.80X and 14.44X, respectively [15][16] Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - Companies such as Mercury Home Textile (closing price: 20.25 CNY, target price: 23.08 CNY), and Nanshan Zhishang (closing price: 18.54 CNY, target price: 27.61 CNY) are highlighted for their strong growth potential [6] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, including EPS, PE ratios, and ROE, indicating a generally favorable investment outlook across the sector [6] Light Industry Manufacturing Review - The light industry sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved sales driven by real estate policy changes and consumer upgrades [5] - The report notes that the paper industry is expected to benefit from reduced production by leading companies, leading to a rebound in paper prices [5] Data Tracking in Textile and Apparel - The report tracks significant price movements in key materials, such as PA66 and PA6, with PA66 priced at 14,833 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.64% [5] - It also highlights the decline in textile exports from China, with a 4.10% drop in textile export value and a 10.10% drop in apparel export value in December 2025 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for styrene is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 2026 may be a year of bottom - building and momentum - gathering for the pure benzene and styrene industry chain. The supply - demand growth rates of both pure benzene and styrene will slow down, with no prominent contradictions, and the narrowing space of the pure benzene - naphtha spread and styrene processing margin is limited, but there is no strong driver for long - term significant expansion. In the long run, the industry chain may gradually turn around after 2026 [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Mainlines Were Variable but Supply Pressure Persisted Throughout 2025, and the Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operated Under Pressure - In H1 2025, the industry chain's trading mainline was to compress the valuation of pure benzene, with the BZN narrowing significantly and the styrene - pure benzene spread widening. The reason was the excessive import of pure benzene and the slowdown of small downstream growth, while styrene had low port inventory and unexpected supply disruptions. In H2, high production profits led to increased styrene supply, inventory accumulation, and the narrowing of the styrene - pure benzene spread. The core issue throughout the year was the large supply increment and elasticity in the industry chain [14][15] 3.2 Pure Benzene: Seeking Weak Recovery Possibilities 3.2.1 Supply Pressure from New Capacity Release Still Exists Next Year but Weakens Marginally Compared to This Year - In 2025, due to smooth new capacity realization and high import pressure, China's pure benzene supply increased significantly. From January to November, the domestic production was 21.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; from January to October, the import volume was 4.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%; the total supply increased by 10.3% year - on - year. In 2026, the expansion of pure benzene capacity will slow down, with an expected new capacity of 1.755 million tons per year and a year - on - year growth rate of about 5% [18][20] 3.2.2 The Favorable Outlook of Co - products Makes It Difficult to Reduce Disproportionation Operation Rates - In 2025, the BZN dropped rapidly, but the pure benzene disproportionation operation rate did not decline significantly because of the support from PX. The PX supply - demand in 2026 is expected to be tight, with an estimated de - stocking of 650,000 tons throughout the year. The high - running PXN will push up disproportionation profits, and the pure benzene industry's operation rate may remain above 78% [23][25] 3.2.3 The Supply - side Variable Lies in the Import Link - In 2025, China's pure benzene imports increased significantly due to the lack of diversion in the US Gulf and weak European chemical demand. The total import volume is expected to exceed 5.5 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 30%. In 2026, the key variable in the supply side is still the import volume. The benchmark expectation for the import volume is in the range of 5.4 - 5.55 million tons, similar to this year. If the overseas capacity exit rhythm exceeds expectations, there may be a slight decrease [28][43] 3.2.4 Pure Benzene Demand: The Five Major Downstreams Will Shift from Differentiation to Convergence - In 2025, pure benzene demand maintained high - single - digit growth but was significantly differentiated. The apparent consumption growth rate was 9.11%, and the real demand growth rate was about 7.3%. In 2026, the overall demand growth rate of pure benzene may slow down to 5% - 6%, and the growth of different downstream demands will shift from differentiation to convergence [44][51] 3.2.5 Pure Benzene Summary: The Supply Growth Rate Will Slow Down Marginally, and the Probability of Weak Recovery of the Pure Benzene Pattern Is Higher - In 2026, the supply - side growth pressure of pure benzene will ease marginally. The expansion speed of petroleum benzene will slow down to about 5%, and the petroleum benzene output may be around 24 million tons. The import volume is expected to be in the range of 5.4 - 5.55 million tons. The growth of the five major downstream demands of pure benzene will shift from differentiation to convergence, with a weighted growth rate of 5% - 6%. The annual pure benzene is expected to accumulate 20,000 tons of inventory, and the inventory accumulation amplitude will narrow significantly compared to 2025 [65] 3.3 Styrene: The Processing Margin Is Expected to Repair Slightly, but the Slowdown of Demand Growth Rate Will Restrict the Upside Space 3.3.1 The Expansion Pace Begins to Slow Down. Can the Boom Cycle Reverse? - From 2012 - 2019, the new investment in China's styrene industry was limited, and the domestic supply could not meet the demand. After 2019, with the rise of private refining, the styrene capacity increased sharply. In 2026, only one new 700,000 - ton - per - year styrene plant of Northern Huajin is waiting to be put into production, and the capacity growth rate will slow down to 2.9%. The industry may be in a year of momentum - gathering, and the cycle reversal may still need to wait [68][69] 3.3.2 The Existing Capacity Still Needs Time to Be Digested - In 2026, the new plants of Guangxi Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical will fully realize the supply - side increment. If the non - integrated device profit turns positive for a long time and the industry's overall operation rate rises to 78% - 80%, the annual styrene output may reach 18.95 - 19.44 million tons, which requires a demand growth rate of 6% - 8%. To achieve a cycle reversal, the demand growth rate needs to reach over 10%. The exit speed of marginal capacity has slowed down [72][74] 3.3.3 The Probability of Continued High Growth Rate of Downstream ABS Is Not High - In 2025, the styrene demand increased significantly, with the apparent demand growth rate exceeding 12% and the real demand growth rate around 10%. The demand increment mainly came from the high - growth of ABS production. In 2026, the high - growth rate of ABS may not continue. Policy support may shift from durable consumer goods to service consumption and general consumer goods, and ABS may shift from the inventory - building cycle to the de - stocking cycle. The styrene demand growth rate in 2026 may slow down to the range of 3% - 5% [81][93] 3.3.4 Styrene Summary: More Patience Is Needed in the Momentum - Gathering Stage - In 2026, the styrene capacity growth rate will slow down to 2.9%, but the existing capacity still has a large release space in terms of output. The styrene demand growth rate may fall to the range of 3% - 5%. The non - integrated device profit only needs a slight repair to meet the downstream demand growth. The styrene processing margin may rise compared to this year, but 2026 will be a year of bottom - building and momentum - gathering rather than a reversal year [94] 3.4 Not Pessimistic in the Long Run, and the Long - term Inflection Point Is Approaching - In the long run, the pure benzene and styrene industry chain may gradually turn around. The capital expenditure has slowed down significantly, and the signal of the end of the supply - side expansion cycle is more obvious. The export of direct downstream and secondary downstream products may have a greater impact on the balance sheet. The demand for pure benzene and styrene is in line with China's industrial transformation and upgrading trend, and the medium - and long - term growth rate center is expected to be higher than GDP [97] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the trading of pure benzene and styrene is still difficult. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels after the market provides a safety margin to play for the expected difference. Based on Brent crude oil at $55 - 75 per barrel, the styrene price range to focus on is 6,000 - 7,800 yuan per ton. In the commodity dimension, the long - term allocation timing has not arrived, but in the equity dimension, it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of targets with a relatively high proportion of aromatic hydrocarbon equity capacity [3][111]

Core Insights - The thermoplastic polyamide (PA) industry in China is experiencing simultaneous scale expansion and structural upgrades, with a focus on high-performance applications and recycling technology [1][11] - PA6 is entering a rational growth cycle, with capacity expansion and downstream demand creating a positive interaction, while PA66 is facing challenges in supply-demand balance after overcoming key raw material issues [1][11] - The industry is expected to focus on high-temperature, bio-based, and other high-end products, while consolidating raw material independence and promoting integrated supply chains [1][11] Industry Overview - Thermoplastic polyamide, commonly known as nylon, is a versatile engineering plastic with excellent mechanical properties and adaptability for various industrial applications [2][3] - The industry is characterized by a shift from large-scale manufacturing to breakthroughs in core technologies and high-value downstream applications [5][11] Market Dynamics - The overall market for thermoplastic composites in China is projected to reach approximately 64 billion yuan by 2024, with PA materials holding about 38% market share [11] - The PA6 segment has seen capacity grow from approximately 5.4 million tons to 7.858 million tons from 2020 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% [11][12] - PA66 production capacity is expected to increase from 560,000 tons to 1.27 million tons during the same period, with a CAGR of 23.2% [12] Key Players - Major companies in the thermoplastic polyamide sector include Wanhua Chemical, Shenyang Chemical, and Jinhai Technology, among others [2] - Foreign companies like BASF maintain a strong presence in high-end markets, while domestic firms are accelerating their competitive positioning through technological advancements [14] Future Trends - The industry is expected to advance in three main directions: technological upgrades, supply chain collaboration, and application expansion [15] - There is a growing emphasis on high-performance and sustainable products, with a focus on bio-based polyamides and recycling technologies [15][16] - New application areas are emerging, particularly in the automotive sector, electronics, and low-altitude economy, which will drive demand for customized and functional products [17][18]

证券日报网讯12月9日，南京聚隆（300644）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，PA6和PA66是公司改 性工程塑料系列的拳头产品，凭借优异的性能和稳定的质量，在国内外市场享有良好口碑。PA6和PA66 的产量结构会根据市场需求进行结构化调整，具体数据请查询公司定期披露的年度报告或半年度报告。 PA6已应用于汽车及新能源汽车动力系统、高铁、电子电气等领域，并持续扩展机器人、充电储能、航 空航天等新的应用场景。 ...

格隆汇12月9日丨南京聚隆(300644.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，PA6和PA66是公司改性工程塑料系列的 拳头产品，凭借优异的性能和稳定的质量，在国内外市场享有良好口碑。PA6和PA66的产量结构会根据 市场需求进行结构化调整，具体数据还要请查询公司定期披露的年度报告或半年度报告。PA6已应用于 汽车及新能源汽车动力系统、高铁、电子电气等领域，并持续扩展机器人、充电储能、航空航天等新的 应用场景。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the organic silicon industry, such as Xin'an Co. and Xingfa Group, as well as those benefiting from the significant price increase of chlorosulfonic acid, like Kaisheng New Materials [5]. Industry Performance - In the fourth week of November, the chemical sector (Shenwan) rose by 2.98%, outperforming the Shanghai A-share index, which increased by 1.40%, leading the market by 1.58 percentage points [2][13]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is 24.43 times, higher than the average PE of 8.22 times since 2015 [2][13]. Sub-industry Trends - Five sub-industries within the chemical sector saw increases, with the top performers being polyurethane (+3.04%) and other plastic products (+0.64%). Conversely, 27 sub-industries experienced declines, with the largest drop in vinylon (-7.93%) [3][17]. Chemical Prices and Spreads - The report highlights significant price increases for several chemicals, with PVDF powder rising by 26.32% and chlorosulfonic acid by 9.31%. The largest price drops were seen in dichloropropane (-9.29%) and PTFE dispersion emulsion (-7.41%) [4][22]. - In terms of price spreads, the top increases were in the spreads for octanol (+21.87%) and ethylene glycol (+19%), while the largest declines were in PTA spread (-224.92%) [4][41]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a decrease in inventory for monoammonium phosphate (-13.94%) and an increase for acetic acid (+8.49%) [5][57].

Core Insights - Company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 23.552 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.374 billion yuan, down 22.1% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.789 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.805 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year and 6.6% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 19.1%, with a net profit margin of 11.4%, showing slight year-on-year increases but declines compared to the previous quarter [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the first three quarters, the company’s revenue was 23.552 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 18.38% and a net profit margin of 11.12%, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 1.6 and 1.9 percentage points respectively [1] - In Q3, the company’s revenue was 7.789 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 19.1% and a net profit margin of 11.4%, showing year-on-year increases of 1.6 and 0.5 percentage points, but declines of 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Segment Performance - The company’s four main segments (new materials, fertilizers, organic amines, and acetic acid and derivatives) saw volume growth in Q3, with fertilizers experiencing over 40% year-on-year growth [2] - In Q3, the sales volumes for the four segments were 0.7596 million tons (new materials), 1.4489 million tons (fertilizers), 0.1581 million tons (organic amines), and 0.4034 million tons (acetic acid and derivatives), with year-on-year growth rates of 14.23%, 40.13%, 3.60%, and 8.79% respectively [2] - Revenue for the segments in Q3 was 3.936 billion yuan (new materials), 1.947 billion yuan (fertilizers), 0.614 billion yuan (organic amines), and 0.809 billion yuan (acetic acid and derivatives), with year-on-year changes of -1.55%, +21.38%, +0.66%, and -19.82% respectively [2] Price Trends - Product prices in Q3 showed a significant year-on-year decline, with urea, DMF, and other products experiencing decreases ranging from 2.4% to 30.4% [3] - Only carbon dioxide dimethyl and oxalic acid saw slight price increases quarter-on-quarter, while most other products continued to decline [3] - Raw material prices for coal showed an upward trend quarter-on-quarter, with prices for smoke coal and thermal coal increasing [3] Profit Forecast - Based on changes in product and raw material prices, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.928 billion yuan, 4.243 billion yuan, and 4.336 billion yuan respectively, while maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas chemical industry is expected to prioritize high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on improving efficiency and safety while addressing competitive pressures and environmental goals [2][7][14]. Group 1: Achievements During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The Chinese chemical industry has achieved significant growth, with projected revenues reaching 14.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 45% increase from 2020 [2]. - China has established the world's largest and most comprehensive production system for chemical products, with over 50% of global production capacity in key chemicals like PTA, PA6, and methanol [2][6]. - By 2024, 11 Chinese companies are expected to be among the top 50 global chemical firms, accounting for 28% of the total revenue of these companies [2][6]. Group 2: Development Focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The focus will shift towards quality-first strategies, emphasizing technological advancement, efficiency, and profitability to close the gap with developed countries [7][9]. - Key development directions include enhancing traditional chemical industries, advancing new materials technology, and promoting green and low-carbon development [15][19]. Group 3: Traditional Chemical Industry Enhancement - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests optimizing traditional industries to improve competitiveness and quality, particularly in sectors like mining, metallurgy, and chemicals [9][14]. - The industry has seen rapid capital expenditure growth since 2022, but faces challenges from increased competition and declining profit margins [14][19]. - The government is expected to implement measures to combat "involution" in the chemical sector, promoting high-quality development [14][15]. Group 4: New Materials Technology Advancement - The plan emphasizes the development of strategic emerging industries, including new materials and advanced manufacturing technologies [15][16]. - There is significant potential for domestic substitution in semiconductor materials and advanced packaging materials, with many categories still relying heavily on imports [15][17]. - The government aims to enhance self-sufficiency in key materials through targeted R&D initiatives [16]. Group 5: Green and Low-Carbon Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines goals for carbon peak and reduction, including implementing dual control over total carbon emissions and intensity [19]. - The plan includes measures for energy efficiency, promoting distributed energy systems, and expanding the carbon trading market [19][18]. - The chemical industry is expected to face stricter entry barriers based on carbon emissions, driving a transition towards high-quality, low-carbon production [19].

Summary of the Chemical Industry Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the chemical industry in China, particularly the oil and gas chemical sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the anticipated developments in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4][11]. Key Points Achievements During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The chemical industry in China achieved significant growth, with revenue reaching 14.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 45% increase from 2020 [4][11]. - China has established the world's largest and most comprehensive production system for chemical products, with over 50% of global production capacity for key chemicals like PTA, PA6, and methanol [4][11]. - By 2024, 11 Chinese companies ranked among the top 50 global chemical firms, an increase of 5 from 2020 [4][11]. Transition to Quality-First Development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The focus is shifting from scale to quality, aiming for high-quality development in the chemical industry [5][16]. - Three main strategic directions are identified: 1. **Improving Traditional Chemical Industries**: Enhancing profitability and efficiency amid increasing competition and declining profit margins [5][17]. 2. **Advancing New Materials Technology**: Addressing the low domestic production rates of critical materials and promoting innovation in sectors like semiconductors and advanced packaging [5][22]. 3. **Green and Low-Carbon Development**: Implementing carbon emission controls and promoting sustainable practices, including the recycling of waste plastics and the development of green methanol [5][22]. Industry Performance and Market Dynamics - The basic chemical sector outperformed the market, with a 3.37% increase compared to a 0.43% decline in the CSI 300 index [3]. - Key performers included companies like Zhenhua Co., Multi-Fluor, and Yashi Chuangneng, while companies like Shilong Industrial and Anji Technology faced declines [3]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected increases in chemical production capacity and significant declines in downstream demand [7]. - The report highlights the need for the government to address "involution" in competition, which has led to price wars and reduced profitability in the sector [5][18]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report maintains profit forecasts and investment ratings for relevant companies, indicating a stable outlook despite the challenges [6]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and the need for the chemical industry to align with national policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality and enhancing product quality [5][22]. - The focus on green development is expected to create new opportunities in sectors related to carbon reduction technologies and sustainable materials [5][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections for the chemical industry as outlined in the research report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future directions of the sector.