纯苯苯乙烯周报 | 2025-09-28 EB下游开工及成品库存：EPS开工率55.25%（-6.49%），PS开工率59.10%（-2.10%），ABS开工率70.00%（+0.20%）， UPR开工率33.00%（-1.00%），丁苯橡胶开工率70.43%（+0.00%）；EPS样本企业库存31300吨（-100），PS样本企业 库存89360吨（-360），ABS样本企业库存243600吨（+4900），丁苯橡胶样本企业库存20500吨（+600）。 EB库存：苯乙烯华东港口库存186500吨（+27500），苯乙烯工厂库存203274吨（-13009）。 纯苯库存及供应：纯苯华东港口库存10.70万吨（-2.70）。纯苯开工率79.27%（+0.92%），加氢苯开工率63.99% （+4.05%）。 纯苯下游负荷回升，苯乙烯未能兑现去库 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 EB港口到港及提货：华东苯乙烯到港量5.60万吨（+3.50）；华东苯乙烯港口提货量2.85万吨（-1.00）。 EB供应：苯乙烯工厂开工率73.24%（-0.20%），其中：华东苯乙烯开工率69.96%（-3.01%），山东苯乙 ...

化学品及终端产品出口的以价换量 出口金额增速平稳，但实物量大幅增加：通过对出口量价进行拆分，多种细分部门的出 口存在以价换量的情况，2023-2025年，从出口价格指数的算数平均值来看，纺服/家具/文 体/电气机械/化纤/塑料橡胶制品/空调/冰箱等与化学品需求相关度比较高的行业均出现了明 显的价格指数下滑，对应每年价格2%~7%的下滑幅度。从出口数量来看，2023-2025年，塑 料/橡胶/汽车/家具出口量保持10%以上增速；化工品/纺服/机电/玩具保持5%-10%的增速。 进口替代&出口扩张 进口替代或出口虽不贡献表观需求，但对消化国内产能有重要意义，近年来国内重点石 化产品的自给率有了大幅提升，以乙烯/PX为例，自给率提升19%/18%，分别对应消化 949/855万吨产能，占其2020-2024年投放总产能的41%/41%。 出口迎来快速增长：产能扩张带来的挤出效应，同时得益于东盟，非洲等新兴市场区域 需求的崛起，欧洲、日韩石化竞争力衰退，产能不断退出，中国化学品出口或迎来趋势性拐 点；2020-2024年苯乙烯/PP/PTA/EVA/PA6/PVC出口量的CAGR均在40%以上，其余监测产品 也均在9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company does not currently apply its products directly in the semiconductor chip field, focusing instead on new packaging materials for various industries [1] Product Overview - The company's main products include new energy BOPA films, functional BOPA films, and bio-based biodegradable BOPLA films, which are used for packaging in lithium batteries, consumer goods (food, daily chemicals), and medical supplies [1] - The company is set to launch new energy BOPP films in the fourth quarter, primarily for use in film capacitor base films and composite current collector base films [1] Research and Development Focus - The company is actively expanding into the high-temperature nylon sector, specifically developing PA6T and PA10T high-temperature nylon to meet the stringent requirements of future applications in humanoid robots, automotive engine components, and electronic appliances [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its research and development in high-temperature nylon materials, specifically PA6T and PA10T, to meet the stringent requirements of future applications in humanoid robots, automotive engine components, and electronic appliances [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company has been focusing on the PA6 field and is optimizing polymer processes and innovating formulation systems to enhance its product offerings [1] - The high-temperature nylon materials are expected to be modified by downstream customers for use in critical components such as joint bearings and gearboxes in humanoid robots [1] Group 2: Market Applications - High-temperature nylon is characterized by excellent wear resistance, oil resistance, and the ability to withstand long-term loads, which are essential for the stable operation and longevity of humanoid robots [1] - The company is committed to monitoring trends in material applications within the robotics sector and exploring related research and development opportunities based on its technological advantages [1]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of the company in the first half of 2025 shows a decline in net profit due to falling product prices and increased competition in the industry [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 14.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.98% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 763 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.81% [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 687 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.02% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the operating revenue was 7.449 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.18%, while the net profit was 351 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.10% [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from the chemical new materials, basic chemicals, fertilizers, and other businesses for the first half of 2025 were 9.738 billion, 2.964 billion, 1.777 billion, and 260 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of 2.39%, 5.14%, 22.36%, and 0.74% [1]. - The gross profit margins for these segments were 11.43%, 22.12%, 5.84%, and 12.03%, with year-on-year changes of -9.77, 8.79, -1.58, and 2.03 percentage points respectively [1]. Price Trends - Major product prices, including polycarbonate, nylon 6, polyols, and organic silicon, have shown varying degrees of decline due to intensified industry competition and weak downstream demand [1][4]. - In Q3 2025, formic acid prices have rebounded significantly, with a reported price of 3,360 yuan per ton as of August 26, 2025, reflecting a 46.08% increase from the end of Q2 2025 [4]. Cost and Expenses - Sales expenses increased by 77.35% in the first half of 2025, with a sales expense ratio of 0.26%, up by 0.10 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Financial expenses rose by 10.25%, with a financial expense ratio of 0.62%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Management expenses decreased by 11.77%, with a management expense ratio of 1.65%, down by 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cash Flow and Working Capital - The net cash flow from operating activities was 3.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.51% [3]. - The net cash flow from investing activities was -813 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.71% [3]. - The net cash flow from financing activities was -2.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 90.05% [3]. - The ending cash and cash equivalents balance was 698 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.48% [3]. - Accounts receivable decreased by 57.64%, with an increase in accounts receivable turnover from 248.92 times in 2024 to 375.24 times [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 32.644 billion, 34.771 billion, and 37.592 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 6.5%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.844 billion, 2.434 billion, and 3.223 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year changes of -9.1%, 32.0%, and 32.4% respectively [5].

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.87% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 111 million yuan, down 27.60% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, operating revenue was 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.93% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.11% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q2 was 30 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 63.87% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 63.07% [1] Market Conditions - The decline in performance in Q2 2025 was primarily due to the downturn in the PA6 market [2] - The average price of caprolactam in Q2 2025 was 9,180 yuan/ton, down 12.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average price of PA6 conventional spinning was 10,087 yuan/ton, down 12.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The price differences for PA6 products also saw significant declines, indicating pressure from global trade tensions and domestic demand [3] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company has production bases in Hangzhou, Changde, Tengzhou, and Zibo, with several projects expected to come online in the next two years [3] - The company anticipates a significant increase in PA6 demand driven by trends in outdoor economy and lightweight automotive applications [4] - The PA6 production capacity is projected to reach 7.87 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24% [4] - The company is also focusing on the PA66 market, which is expected to benefit from engineering plastic demand growth [4] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company of 280 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 530 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - Corresponding PE ratios based on the closing price on August 29, 2025, are projected to be 14.4X, 10.7X, and 7.7X [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tongyi Co., Ltd. (300538) has a diverse range of composite material products, which are applicable in various high-tech industries due to their excellent properties [1] Group 1: Product Range - The company produces high-end engineering plastic plates and rods, including PEEK, PEI, PPS, PA6, PA66, ABS, PC, POM, HDPE, and PP [1] - These products are characterized by their wear resistance, vibration resistance, corrosion resistance, and anti-static properties [1] Group 2: Application Scenarios - The composite materials can be widely applied in several sectors such as drones, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, military equipment, intelligent automation devices, photovoltaics, high-speed rail, medical devices, and bridge infrastructure [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a multi-dimensional approach to address "involution" in the chemical industry, focusing on supply, demand, and government collaboration [1][3][25] - Recent policies from various government bodies aim to regulate costs, manage carbon emissions, and eliminate outdated production methods to combat "involution" [2][43] - The report identifies high concentration and deep losses in specific sub-industries as key areas for intervention, suggesting that these sectors may be more amenable to achieving "anti-involution" goals [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released guidelines to address the causes of "involution" and proposed measures for local governments and enterprises [1][12] - The report highlights the importance of establishing product standards and improving the efficiency of accounts receivable collection to mitigate "involution" [26][32] Section 2: Recent Policy Developments - Recent updates to the Price Law and other regulations aim to strengthen cost supervision and adjust pricing mechanisms to combat "involution" [2][39] - The NDRC has introduced a new framework for energy efficiency reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, targeting high-energy-consuming projects [43][46] Section 3: Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Chemical Sub-Industries - The report analyzes 127 chemical sub-industries based on capacity, concentration, and profitability, identifying those with high loss levels and concentration as potential targets for "anti-involution" measures [4][11] - Specific industries such as soda ash, polyurethane, and organic silicon are highlighted as areas of interest due to their alignment with the identified criteria [4][29] Section 4: Recommendations for Industry Improvement - The report suggests enhancing industry self-regulation, increasing innovation, and establishing standards to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities [36][34] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach between industry policies and competition policies to ensure sustainable development [24][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI and Vitamin D3, suggesting a focus on the TDI and organic silicon sectors [1][5]. - The chemical sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 1.77%, surpassing the Shanghai A-share index by 1.08 percentage points [2][15]. - Key stocks that performed well include Dongcai Technology (+33.16%) and Cangzhou Dahua (+28.47%), while stocks like Guangxin Materials (-9.26%) and Ando A (-9.05%) saw declines [2][15]. Industry Performance - In the third week of July, 20 sub-industries within the chemical sector saw increases, with the top five being modified plastics (+7.42%) and phosphate chemicals (+7.41%) [3][19]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 25.83 times, which is lower than the average PE of 30.02 times since 2015 [2][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: liquid chlorine (+21.78%), TDI (+18.83%), and Vitamin D3 (+10%) [4][22]. - The report also notes significant changes in price spreads, with the ethylene spread increasing by 81.82% and PTA spread decreasing by 357.81% [4][43]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include an increase in epoxy propane (+11.97%) and a decrease in ethylene (-8.57%) [5][61]. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical due to the significant rise in TDI prices [5]. - Attention is also drawn to organic silicon producers like Xin'an Chemical and Xinfeng Group, following a fire incident affecting supply [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for styrene is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene valuation has shifted from continuous decline to an oscillating phase, and attention should be paid to whether the demand side can create an expected difference. Styrene's supply - demand structure is expected to weaken marginally in stages, with the variable being ethane supply. In the second half of the year, pure benzene's supply - demand is generally balanced, with BZN likely to first rebound and then bottom out again. Styrene's non - integrated profit margin may weaken quarter - on - quarter, and the idea of trading spreads should change from widening at low levels to range - bound operations [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上半年核心交易逻辑在于纯苯估值压缩 - In the first half of 2025, styrene prices fluctuated. In the first quarter, driven by positive expectations, prices initially rose, but then supply increased and pure benzene demand was over - drawn, causing prices to decline. In the second quarter, styrene's supply - demand was not bad, but pure benzene's valuation continued to decline, and styrene's absolute price mainly followed oil price fluctuations [15][16] 3.2统苯估值压降的趋势何时能够反转? 3.2.1上半年纯苯估值承压下行的成因 - In the first half of 2025, pure benzene supply was abundant due to a significant increase in imports. The high import volume was caused by the weakening of the US Gulf pure benzene structure and the weakening of European chemical demand. Although pure benzene demand was not bad overall, the growth rate of non - styrene downstream demand slowed down, leading to poor seasonal de - stocking and making pure benzene a short - position target [22][24][26] 3.2.2因其生产特性问题,估值压降对纯苯供应挤出的力度相对较弱 - Due to the by - product nature of pure benzene production, the impact of valuation changes on supply is relatively weak. Petroleum benzene supply is stable, and marginal reduction mainly depends on disproportionation load reduction. The supply of hydro - benzene is also difficult to squeeze due to the by - product nature of its raw material, crude benzene. There are still new pure benzene production capacities to be released in the second half of the year [30][35][40] 3.2.3纯苯直接下游正在回归、后续将考验终端承接能力 - The weighted output of pure benzene's direct downstream is expected to increase, which will improve the supply - demand structure marginally. However, the sustainability of the improvement depends on the terminal's ability to absorb the products. Different downstream sectors of pure benzene will show differentiation in the second half of the year, with an estimated weighted demand growth rate of around 5.5% [47][49] 3.2.4纯苯下半年供需预期整体较为平衡,BZN或从持续下行转为震荡运行 - In the second half of the year, pure benzene's supply - demand is generally balanced, with an estimated supply growth rate of around 5.8% - 5.9% and a demand growth rate of around 5.5%. The BZN is expected to shift from continuous decline to an oscillating pattern, with a possible bottom - seeking after a short - term rebound. The lower limit of BZN is expected to be around $90 - 120/ton [54][55] 3.3上半年苯乙烯格局优于纯苯,但也推动部分长停装置回归压制远月预期 3.3.1苯乙烯供应面的压力下半年或继续增加 - In the first half of 2025, styrene supply was high in the first quarter and decreased in the second quarter due to maintenance. In the second half of the year, supply pressure is expected to increase as existing production resumes, long - shut - down plants restart, and new capacities are put into operation. The potential variable is the supply of ethane [60][61] 3.3.2上半年苯乙烯下游3S增量亮眼,下半年关注家电端贡献是否会边际转弱 - In the first half of 2025, styrene demand grew by about 13%, mainly driven by the growth of ABS and PS. The reasons include the low base in 2024 and the boost from national subsidies and early export rush. In the second half of the year, the contribution of the home appliance sector may weaken due to the possible adjustment of national subsidies and the pressure on home appliance exports. However, the export of intermediate products such as ABS and PS may offset some of the negative impact [67][70][73] 3.3.3地产端再度回归疲态、静待政策加码 - In the first quarter of 2025, the real estate market showed signs of recovery, but in the second quarter, it weakened again. The decline in the completion end of real estate has dragged down styrene demand. The progress of special bond acquisitions of idle land and the optimization of existing policies should be monitored [82][86][90] 3.3.4总结：下半年苯乙烯绝对价格或更多依赖成本端纯苯指引 - In the second half of the year, styrene's supply pressure will increase, and demand growth may slow down to 5% - 8%. The non - integrated profit margin is expected to weaken, and the absolute price of styrene is likely to be more influenced by pure benzene [94][95] 3.4投资建议 - For pure benzene, consider going long on BZN near the lower limit as the risk - reward ratio may be better. For styrene, change the trading strategy from widening spreads at low levels to range - bound operations, with the EB - BZ spread expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1500 yuan/ton (fluctuating with ethylene and pure benzene prices). Also, pay attention to the resolution of the ethane import issue [3][96][97]