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Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has subsided. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The "anti-involution" sentiment has subsided. There are few maintenance works in soda ash plants, and the supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, resulting in weakened terminal demand. The inventory in soda ash plants is at a historical high. Overall, it is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,247 yuan/ton, with a basis of 3 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Market**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply-demand imbalance in the soda ash market and the fading policy benefits, the short-term trend is expected to be volatile [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance season in summer is approaching, which will lead to a decline in production [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production volume is at a historical high. The production of photovoltaic glass, a major downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Session | Closing Price of Main Contract | Lowest Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous | 1,311 yuan/ton | 1,300 yuan/ton | -11 yuan/ton | | Current | 1,247 yuan/ton | 1,250 yuan/ton | 3 yuan/ton | | Change | -4.88% | -3.85% | -127.27% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method is -87 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method is -50.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is recovering from a historical low [15]. - **Operating rate and production volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.02%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume is 723,800 tons, including 408,900 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and sales rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 105.66% [24]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,000 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.10%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in operation has dropped significantly [27][30]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5-year average [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production volume, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, and growth rates [34].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent price increases in key chemical products such as soda ash, organic silicon, and MDI, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [1][3] - The basic chemical sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a weekly increase of 4.25% compared to 1.69% for the index, indicating a positive market sentiment [4][16] - The report suggests that the industry may be at a cyclical bottom, with a focus on supply-demand marginal changes [5] Summary by Sections Key News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a revised method for energy consumption and carbon emission management for fixed asset investment projects, which is expected to enhance energy efficiency reviews [1][13] Product Price Monitoring - Key chemical products saw significant price changes, with organic silicon and TDI prices increasing by 11.6% and 6.8% respectively, while DMF and acetic acid prices decreased by 5.7% and 1.3% [2][26] - The report notes that 85 out of 345 tracked chemical products experienced price increases, while 79 saw declines [26] Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector's weekly performance was strong, with notable increases in synthetic resin (+21.94%), soda ash (+14.45%), and organic silicon (+9.01%) [4][18] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the basic chemical sector, with significant gains for companies like Shangwei New Materials (+97.37%) and Henghe Precision (+64.42%) [21] Investment Insights - The report recommends focusing on sectors with stable demand and potential for recovery, such as organic silicon and amino acids, while also highlighting companies that may benefit from domestic demand [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and cost factors in pricing strategies to mitigate market volatility [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pesticide industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Yangnong Chemical, Lier Chemical, and Runfeng Shares [3][20]. Core Insights - The pesticide industry is experiencing a recovery due to the "Zhengfeng Zhijuan" initiative aimed at regulating the market, which has led to price increases for key products like fluorocarbon herbicides [3][4]. - The report highlights the impact of maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities, such as Wanhua's Hungarian plant, which may lead to supply shortages and price increases in the TDI market [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved industry dynamics through the elimination of outdated production capacity, as indicated by government initiatives targeting key sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a stable global GDP growth of 2.8%, with oil demand expected to rise despite some slowdown due to tariffs [4]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [4]. Chemical Prices - Recent price movements include a 15% increase in the price of Lier Chemical's fluorocarbon herbicide and a similar rise for Zhongqi Shares [3][11]. - The report mentions that the price of TDI is expected to rise due to low global inventory levels and potential supply disruptions from maintenance activities [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific sectors such as coal chemical, real estate chain, and agricultural chemicals, highlighting companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [3][20]. - Growth stocks with recovery potential are identified, including semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials, with specific companies recommended for investment [3][20].

Group 1: Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 8.14[12] - Hualing Steel's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 20.32 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.54 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.72[12] - Xiamen Tungsten's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 17.28 billion in 2024 to CNY 21.01 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22.97[12] Group 2: Construction and Transportation - Sichuan Road and Bridge's net profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 72.10 billion in 2024 to CNY 82.86 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 10.35[12] - YTO Express's net profit is expected to decrease from CNY 40.12 billion in 2024 to CNY 35.39 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13.03[12] - China Merchants Highway's net profit is projected to be CNY 55 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.56[12] Group 3: Chemical and Energy Sector - Yara International's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 17.94 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.56[12] - Funiu Power's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 28.95 billion, with a PE ratio of 9.18[12] - Huajin's net profit is projected to recover to CNY 0.92 billion in 2025 after a loss of CNY 27.95 billion in 2024[12] Group 4: Strategic Metals and New Materials - Xiamen Tungsten's strategic metal segments are expected to contribute 79% to profits in 2024, with a focus on tungsten and rare earths[21] - Zhongcai Technology's special glass fiber is projected to see significant demand growth due to AI hardware requirements, with expected profits of CNY 0.2 billion in 2024[30] - The company anticipates a profit contribution from special glass fiber of CNY 7.2 billion by 2026[30]

Group 1: Market Trends - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a surge in market sentiment, with pure soda futures rising for five consecutive trading days from July 21 to July 25 [1] - Major companies in the pure soda sector, such as Boyuan Chemical and Shuanghuan Technology, have seen significant stock price increases, reflecting the strong correlation between futures and stock prices [1][8] - The futures market has experienced substantial gains, with pure soda futures rising by 5.57% in a single day and a cumulative increase of 17.46% for the week [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policies introduced in July aim to regulate low-price competition and promote product quality across various industries, including steel and petrochemicals [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a draft amendment to the Price Law, focusing on government pricing and standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors [2] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The pure soda industry has faced significant market fluctuations, with a reported average price of 1953 yuan/ton in 2024, down 29.6% year-on-year [4] - In the first half of 2025, the industry is expected to see an increase in production capacity by 2.4 million tons, leading to a total capacity of 40.78 million tons, while demand growth is anticipated to decline [4][6] - The industry is experiencing high inventory levels, with companies like Zhongyan Chemical reporting a 5.76% decline in revenue and an 88.04% drop in net profit in the first half of 2025 [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in pure soda futures may not be sustainable due to underlying supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of a wide price fluctuation in the near future [3][8] - The potential for further capacity expansion in the pure soda sector could exacerbate existing supply-demand issues, despite the positive impact of the recent price increases [6][8]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 0.9% and closing up 0.3% [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Boryuan Chemical, which surged over 6%, Yangnong Chemical up over 5%, and Qixiang Tengda rising over 3% [1] - The sub-index of the chemical sector has outperformed major A-share indices, with a cumulative increase of 8.97% since July 1, compared to 4.68% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 5.41% for the CSI 300 [1][3] Group 2 - The basic chemical sector saw a net inflow of over 1.5 billion yuan on a single day, ranking fourth among 30 major sectors [2] - Over the past five trading days, the cumulative net inflow into the basic chemical sector exceeded 21.7 billion yuan, also ranking fourth [2] - The chemical ETF (516020) has a price-to-book ratio of 2.08, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [5] Group 3 - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new long-term prosperity cycle due to recent policies aimed at boosting economic confidence and demand for chemical products [5] - The supply-side reform is anticipated to improve domestic supply conditions significantly, with the chemical sector poised for a rebound [5][6] - The focus on cost factors such as green low-carbon initiatives and process optimization is expected to drive a re-pricing in the chemical sector [6] Group 4 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the sub-index of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing a strong investment opportunity [7] - Investors can also access the chemical sector through the chemical ETF linked funds [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the chemical sector, particularly the rise in the Zhongzheng Subdivided Chemical Industry Theme Index and its constituent stocks [1][2] - The chemical ETF has shown a significant increase, with a reported price of 0.63 yuan and a subscription of 36.5 million units during the trading session [1][2] - The Daqing Petrochemical Company has achieved record production levels of MTBE, increasing by 0.44 thousand tons compared to the same period last year, reflecting effective management and production optimization [1] Group 2 - The second quarter of this year saw a rapid rebound in the overall market, with the chemical sector focusing on price increases, domestic demand support, and new materials [2] - Investment in the chemical sector is being directed towards potassium fertilizers and fluorochemical sectors due to their fundamental support, while domestic demand is gaining attention amid international trade conflicts [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Subdivided Chemical Industry Theme Index account for 43.37% of the index, indicating a concentration of investment in major players like Wanhua Chemical and Yanhai Co [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.83% and closing up 1.53% [1] - Notable stocks in the sector include lithium battery, soda ash, and fluorine chemical companies, with significant gains from Hebang Biological (up 4.76%) and Tianci Materials (up 4.03%) [1] - The chemical sector has attracted significant capital, with a net inflow of 26.418 billion yuan over the past five days, ranking second among 30 sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is benefiting the lithium battery sector, as it leads to project delays and a healthier supply-demand balance [3] - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, facing challenges from increased competition, but supply-side reforms are expected to optimize the industry structure [4] - The current valuation of the Chemical ETF (516020) is at a low point, suggesting a good opportunity for long-term investment [4] Group 3 - The chemical sector is expected to undergo a re-pricing based on cost factors, focusing on green and low-carbon initiatives [5] - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while international uncertainties in chemical supply are increasing [5] - The Chemical ETF (516020) provides a diversified investment opportunity across various sub-sectors, with a significant portion allocated to large-cap leading stocks [6]

Group 1 - The fertilizer sector continues to rise, with significant stock price increases observed [1] - Both Boyuan Chemical (000683) and Qingsong Jianhua (600425) reached the daily limit increase [1] - Other companies such as Xuefeng Technology (603227), Kailong Co., Ltd. (002783), Luxi Chemical (000830), Hualu Hengsheng (600426), Yuntianhua (600096), and Xinghuo Technology (600866) also experienced price increases [1]