Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address the supply-demand imbalance in the steel industry by implementing precise capacity and production controls, promoting resource allocation to leading enterprises, and achieving dynamic balance in supply and demand [3][7]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will remain on capacity regulation, which is expected to restore profitability for steel companies, particularly benefiting leading firms from the new regulatory measures [3][7]. Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,240 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][9]. - The report details price changes for various steel products, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets, indicating a general downward trend in prices [1][10]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.65 million tons, an increase of 94,700 tons week-on-week, while total inventory decreased by 121,200 tons to 10.88 million tons [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.2044 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 104,100 tons [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes a decline in profitability for plate products, with the gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changing by +3 CNY/ton, -36 CNY/ton, and -20 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Electric arc furnace steel showed a gross margin increase of 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4]. - It also suggests monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel for potential investment opportunities [3].

Market Overview - On September 26, the special steel sector rose by 1.04%, led by CITIC Special Steel, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] Stock Performance - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 13.28, up 2.79% with a trading volume of 248,300 shares and a turnover of 327 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.35, up 2.10% with a trading volume of 226,500 shares and a turnover of 121 million yuan [1] - Changbao Co., Ltd. (002478) closed at 5.55, up 1.46% with a trading volume of 111,800 shares and a turnover of 61.88 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include Jiuli Special Materials (002318) at 23.19, up 0.69%, and Xining Special Steel (600117) at 3.14, up 0.32% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 48.64 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 69.25 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Fangda Special Steel saw a net inflow of 14.34 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 7.82 million yuan [3] - CITIC Special Steel had a net inflow of 1.44 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 12.84 million yuan [3] - Other stocks like Taigang Stainless Steel (000825) and Xining Special Steel (600117) also showed varied capital flows, reflecting differing investor sentiments across the sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Special Steel has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading activity, indicating positive market sentiment and potential investment interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - CITIC Special Steel's stock price increased by 20.98% year-to-date, with a 5.02% rise in the last five trading days, 1.00% in the last 20 days, and 6.63% in the last 60 days [2]. - As of September 26, the stock was trading at 13.19 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 66.572 billion CNY [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, CITIC Special Steel reported revenue of 54.715 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.02%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.798 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.67% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 5.17% to 43,400, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 4.92% to 116,344 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 20.927 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 8.943 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 48.1504 million shares, a decrease of 23.90 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Other notable institutional shareholders include Southern S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, which increased their holdings [3].

Market Overview - On September 25, the special steel sector rose by 0.46% compared to the previous trading day, with Xianglou New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Stock Performance - Xianglou New Materials (301160) closed at 63.58, up 2.25% with a trading volume of 28,400 lots and a transaction value of 181 million [1] - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 12.92, up 1.10% with a trading volume of 136,200 lots [1] - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) closed at 7.35, up 0.68% with a trading volume of 144,800 lots [1] - Other notable performances include Jiuli Special Materials (002318) at 23.03, up 0.57%, and Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) at 3.87, up 0.52% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 7.496 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 29.624 million [2] - However, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 37.1203 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) had a net inflow of 19.2741 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 11.3191 million from speculative funds [3] - Xianglou New Materials (301160) saw a net inflow of 17.6055 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 12.4069 million from speculative funds [3] - Fushun Special Steel (600399) recorded a net inflow of 4.4309 million from institutional investors [3]

Market Overview - On September 24, the special steel sector rose by 0.11% compared to the previous trading day, with Jiuli Special Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Stock Performance - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 22.90, with a gain of 3.01% and a trading volume of 142,800 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 325 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Shengde Zhengtai (300881) at 34.04, up 2.53% [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) at 5.56, up 1.65% [1] - Shagang Group (002075) at 5.71, up 1.42% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 25.36 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 38.95 million yuan [2] - Notably, speculative funds had a net outflow of 64.32 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Jiuli Special Materials had a main fund net outflow of 33.99 million yuan, with retail funds showing a net inflow of 0.37 million yuan [3] - Tai Steel (000825) experienced a main fund net inflow of 5.32 million yuan, while retail funds also saw a net inflow of 0.52 million yuan [3] - Other stocks like Shengde Xintai (300881) and Changbao Co. (002478) faced significant net outflows from main and speculative funds [3]

Group 1: Core Perspective - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for the Chinese steel industry to transition from scale leadership to quality breakthroughs, with special steel being essential for high-end manufacturing [1] - CITIC Special Steel has emerged as a benchmark in the global special steel industry through continuous efforts in innovation, low-carbon transformation, and social responsibility [1][2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The steel industry's transformation focuses on shifting from meeting quantity demands to supporting quality upgrades, with special steel providing indispensable material support for major national projects [2][3] - CITIC Special Steel maintains an average annual R&D investment of over 3% of revenue, significantly exceeding the industry average, and has obtained 1,851 authorized patents, including 50 international patents [3] Group 3: Green Transformation - The steel industry accounts for approximately 15% of national carbon emissions, and CITIC Special Steel adopts a dual approach to carbon reduction: enhancing its own low-carbon production system and innovating products to assist downstream industries in reducing emissions [4] - The company has implemented significant renewable energy projects, including 157 MW of solar power and 28.8 MW of wind power, achieving annual carbon reductions exceeding 110,000 tons [4] Group 4: Social Responsibility and ESG - CITIC Special Steel integrates social responsibility into its core operations, focusing on long-term contributions to the industry chain, employees, and society, rather than merely engaging in charitable donations [6] - The company has received multiple awards for its ESG practices, including the "Five-Star Golden Award" for social responsibility in the manufacturing sector [7] Group 5: Future Directions - The future of China's special steel industry is expected to shift from "catching up" to "leading," with a focus on high-end manufacturing, new energy, and marine engineering [7][8] - CITIC Special Steel aims to achieve industry-leading carbon neutrality, deepen research in hydrogen metallurgy, and replicate its "lighthouse factory" model across more bases [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation between the National Carbon Measurement Center (Fujian) and CITIC Pacific Special Steel Group aims to establish a "dual carbon" innovation platform in the special steel sector, promoting green development in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The signing ceremony took place in Jiangyin City, Jiangsu Province, focusing on major technological needs of the nation and enterprises [1]. - Both parties will leverage their strengths to create a national low-carbon high-end think tank and develop a differentiated low-carbon evaluation system for special steel [1][2]. - The collaboration aims to support the green and high-quality development of the special steel industry and achieve national "dual carbon" goals [1]. Group 2: Local Government Support - The Deputy Mayor of Nanping City emphasized the importance of green development and the need for intelligent upgrades in the industry [1]. - The local government hopes that this strategic partnership will enhance CITIC Pacific Special Steel's global leadership in the special steel sector and drive the green transformation of Jiangyin's overall industry [2]. Group 3: Technical Advancements - The cooperation will focus on the entire special steel industry chain, addressing key technical bottlenecks in carbon measurement, emission reduction, and certification [2]. - The initiative aims to enhance China's international influence in the special steel industry through systematic breakthroughs in key technologies [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from China Galaxy highlights the "precise control of capacity and output" and "industry transformation and upgrading" as key development directions for the steel industry in the context of ongoing supply-side reforms [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2021, China's steel production faced significant supply-side capacity control measures, leading to a historic year-on-year decline in crude steel output by approximately 2.8%, reaching 1.035 billion tons [2]. - The combination of strong demand and strict production controls resulted in domestic steel prices rising sharply, maintaining historical highs, and the total profit for the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 424.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.1% [2]. Policy Developments - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" was jointly issued by multiple government departments, setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value over the next two years [3]. - The plan emphasizes "steady growth and prevention of internal competition," providing a clear path for structural adjustment and high-quality development in the steel sector [3]. Digital Transformation - The work plan focuses on industry upgrades, advocating for increased effective investment, modernization of processes and equipment, and accelerated digital transformation [4]. - By 2026, the steel industry aims to significantly enhance its digitalization level, integrating new information technologies deeply into the steel industry, transitioning from isolated applications to a comprehensive digital development approach [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that in the context of ongoing supply-side reforms, the steel industry's capacity will continue to concentrate on high-quality leading companies, with a focus on industry leaders and performance improvements [5]. - Recommended companies for investment include Shougang Group, Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and CITIC Special Steel [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [3][4]. Core Insights - The steel prices are showing a strong upward trend supported by raw material costs, with significant increases in various steel products as of September 19, 2025 [1][11]. - The overall steel profit margins have improved, with notable increases in the gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel [1][2]. - The report indicates a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction for rebar, suggesting a recovery in demand as the industry enters its peak season [3]. Price Trends - As of September 19, 2025, the prices for key steel products in Shanghai are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400) at 3280 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton from the previous week - High-line (8.0mm) at 3420 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm) at 3460 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm) at 3830 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm) at 3510 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton [1][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of September 19, 2025, the total production of the five major steel products was 8.55 million tons, a decrease of 1.78 million tons week-on-week, with rebar production specifically down by 5.48 million tons to 2.0645 million tons [2]. - The total social inventory of the five major steel products increased by 63,200 tons to 11.0023 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 11,400 tons [2]. Profitability - The report highlights an increase in steel profitability, with gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel rising by 24 CNY/ton, 28 CNY/ton, and 28 CNY/ton respectively, while electric arc furnace steel margins increased by 10 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - For the general steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel - For the special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the steel sector in investment allocation, particularly in light of expected policy-driven production limits in the fourth quarter [1][2] - Despite current supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the steel demand is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase due to supportive policies in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors [3][2] - The report suggests that the industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-margin specialty steel companies and leading enterprises with strong cost control [3][2] Supply Situation - As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 90.4%, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 percentage points [25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.41 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.47 tons and a year-on-year increase of 176,400 tons [25] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.437 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,500 tons [25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.503 million tons as of September 19, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 107,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.32% [35] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of five major steel products is 11.014 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 62,700 tons [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.184 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.14% [43] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,507.3 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 17.52 yuan/ton [49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 22 yuan/ton, a significant week-on-week increase of 257.14% [58] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,381 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase [58] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 802 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.0 yuan/ton [72] - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,715 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 55.0 yuan/ton [72]