Core Viewpoint - The special steel sector experienced a slight increase of 0.26% on December 26, with Fushun Special Steel leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89, up 0.54% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Fushun Special Steel (code: 6682009) closed at 6.00, up 3.27%, with a trading volume of 1.9053 million shares and a transaction value of 1.152 billion yuan [1]. - Changbao Co., Ltd. (code: 002478) closed at 9.08, up 2.95%, with a trading volume of 577,400 shares and a transaction value of 521 million yuan [1]. - CITIC Special Steel (code: 000708) closed at 16.05, up 0.88%, with a trading volume of 125,600 shares and a transaction value of 201 million yuan [1]. - Xining Special Steel (code: 600117) closed at 2.88, up 0.70%, with a trading volume of 257,200 shares and a transaction value of 73.7926 million yuan [1]. - Shagang Group (code: 002075) closed at 5.77, up 0.70%, with a trading volume of 309,800 shares and a transaction value of 179 million yuan [1]. - Fangda Special Steel (code: 600507) closed at 5.90, up 0.68%, with a trading volume of 152,300 shares and a transaction value of 89.9251 million yuan [1]. - Tongjin Co., Ltd. (code: 603995) closed at 18.28, down 0.44%, with a trading volume of 52,200 shares and a transaction value of 95.8515 million yuan [1]. - Xianglou New Materials (code: 301160) closed at 64.10, down 0.68%, with a trading volume of 20,600 shares and a transaction value of 132 million yuan [1]. - Jiuli Special Materials (code: 002318) closed at 27.90, down 0.75%, with a trading volume of 138,200 shares and a transaction value of 384 million yuan [1]. - Jinzhu Pipeline (code: 002443) closed at 8.47, down 1.85%, with a trading volume of 149,400 shares and a transaction value of 127 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 237 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 271 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates that Xining Special Steel had a main fund net inflow of 347,600 yuan, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 789,880 yuan [3]. - In contrast, CITIC Special Steel experienced a significant main fund net outflow of 24.3952 million yuan, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 1.8964 million yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a tightening supply trend, with a projected decrease in crude steel production and an increase in exports, indicating a shift towards quality and structural improvements in production policies [1][2]. Supply Side - As of November 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China reached 890 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, with a reduction of 3.8 million tons compared to the same period in 2025 [1]. - The current round of regulatory policies emphasizes innovative capacity governance, focusing on quality and structure rather than merely eliminating ineffective capacity or controlling production levels [1]. Demand Side - By October 2025, China's cumulative steel exports amounted to approximately 110 million tons, an increase of 13.29 million tons year-on-year, with net steel exports accounting for about 13% of crude steel production, nearing the pre-reform high of 15% in 2015 [2]. - Although the demand for construction steel is still declining, the rate of decline is narrowing, indicating that demand is approaching its bottom [2]. - Manufacturing steel demand is expected to remain stable, driven by sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and shipbuilding, along with increased demand from new infrastructure projects like wind power and photovoltaics [2]. Cost Side - Global iron ore demand is expected to decline, with China's industrial structure upgrades leading to reduced steel demand, while growth in other emerging markets is insufficient to offset this decline [3]. - In the first half of 2025, supply looseness has put downward pressure on coking coal prices, with price movements primarily driven by supply adjustments rather than strong demand growth [3]. - The price of scrap steel is expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations, continuing to exert pressure on upstream and downstream profits [3]. Investment Recommendations - The combination of supply-side production controls and more proactive fiscal policies is likely to enhance sector valuations [4]. - Demand for construction steel is stabilizing, while manufacturing steel demand is showing positive trends, with exports shifting towards higher quality and indirect models [4]. - The elimination of outdated capacity is expected to increase the concentration of leading enterprises, with a necessary trend towards high-quality product development [4]. - Recommended companies include industry leaders with product structure advantages such as Baosteel (600019.SH), Nanjing Steel (600282.SH), and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), as well as special steel companies with high barriers and added value like CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ), Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), and Yongjin Co., Ltd. (603995.SH) [4].

Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of decline, driven by improvements in cost and supply sides [4][7][16] - The majority of profits in the black industrial chain are captured by iron ore, with profit shares of 72% for iron ore, 6% for coking coal, and 22% for steel [4][7] - The West Manganese project is seen as a potential solution to redirect profits back to the domestic steel industry [4][7] Profitability - In Q4 2025, prices for rebar, hot-rolled, iron ore, and coking coal decreased by 7.1%, 6.0%, 1.0%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, with coking coal showing a significant price drop [7][18] - The decline in coking coal prices has alleviated cost pressures for steel companies, leading to a rebound in profitability [18][21] - The overall profit for the steel industry is expected to improve as demand stabilizes and costs decrease [7][21] Supply - The actual crude steel production in 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, despite improved profitability encouraging production [20][21] - The supply side has not yet contracted as expected, with administrative production limits still pending implementation [16][20] - The discrepancy in production statistics indicates that crude steel output may be underestimated due to reporting practices [21][23] Demand - Steel inventory has been successfully reduced to low levels, indicating a stabilization in apparent consumption [26][27] - The demand structure shows a decline in rebar consumption by 5.4%, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products saw increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively [30][31] - Strong external demand, particularly in machinery and equipment exports, is expected to support steel demand [31][40] Outlook for 2026 - Steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [42][46] - The decline in new housing starts is expected to moderate, reducing the negative impact on steel demand from the real estate sector [46][48] - Global monetary and fiscal policies are expected to become more accommodative, further supporting steel demand through improved economic conditions [48][49] Policy and Regulation - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products aims to curb low-end exports and improve market stability [51][52] - The focus on "graded management" policies is expected to lead to a reduction in outdated production capacity, benefiting compliant and high-quality steel producers [52]

Group 1 - The special steel sector increased by 1.1% on December 24, with Fushun Special Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3940.95, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13486.42, up 0.88% [1] - Key stocks in the special steel sector showed various increases, with Fushun Special Steel at 5.49 (up 2.43%) and Taiyuan Iron & Steel at 5.08 (up 2.01%) [1] Group 2 - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 84.90 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 85.13 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Taiyuan Iron & Steel was 1.57 million shares, with a transaction value of 793 million yuan [2] - Fushun Special Steel had a main fund net inflow of 40.57 million yuan, representing 10.32% of its trading volume [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

Core Insights - The carbon bearing steel industry is experiencing growth in production despite a decline in crude steel output, driven by technological upgrades and high-value-added capacity releases [1][4] - The market is characterized by a "pyramid" competition structure, with leading companies like CITIC Special Steel and Baowu Steel dominating the high-end market, while smaller firms focus on mid-to-low-end segments [1][8] - Future development will focus on technological upgrades, structural optimization, and demand upgrades, shifting competition towards a combination of products and services [1][10][12] Group 1: Industry Overview - Carbon bearing steel is essential for manufacturing rolling bearing rings and rolling elements, characterized by controlled carbon content (0.95%-1.10%) and low impurity levels [2][3] - The industry is influenced by raw material costs, production capacity adjustments, and environmental policies, leading to fluctuations in crude steel output [4][5] Group 2: Production Trends - From January to October 2025, the crude steel output of major special steel enterprises in China was 4.05 million tons, a decrease of 0.36% year-on-year [4] - In contrast, the bearing steel output during the same period was 3.72 million tons, an increase of 3.43% year-on-year, attributed to refined processes and high-value product releases [4][6] Group 3: Industry Chain - The upstream of the carbon bearing steel industry relies on iron ore and alloy elements, with a high dependency on imported iron ore affecting cost control [5][6] - The downstream applications span various sectors, including automotive, wind power, and high-end equipment manufacturing, with increasing demands for high-performance materials [5][6] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The market concentration is increasing, with leading companies like CITIC Special Steel and Jiyuan Steel accounting for 68.21% of total output as of January to October 2025 [8][9] - The first tier of companies focuses on high-end markets, while the second tier leverages cost advantages in general machinery, and smaller firms are transitioning to specialized steel [8][9] Group 5: Future Development Trends - Technological upgrades will focus on high-purity refining and customized product development, with advanced processes reducing impurity levels and enhancing material performance [10][11] - Structural optimization will align with green low-carbon production goals, promoting industry cluster characteristics and increasing market concentration [12] - Demand from high-end manufacturing sectors like new energy vehicles and wind power will drive growth, with a shift towards comprehensive competition involving both products and services [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a disturbance in raw material supply, leading to differentiated performance in rebar and wire rod prices. The recent policy changes regarding coal export tariffs and the implementation of export licenses for steel products are expected to impact supply dynamics and pricing [9][12]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific increases noted in various steel products as of December 19, 2025. For instance, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar rose to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 2.2% increase from the previous week [9][16]. - The report indicates a rise in steel profits, with margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel increasing by 32 CNY/ton, 23 CNY/ton, and 9 CNY/ton respectively [9][33]. - Inventory levels for major steel products have decreased, with total social inventory dropping by 351,800 tons to 9,054,600 tons as of December 19, 2025 [9][33]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of December 19, 2025, domestic steel prices have increased, with notable price changes across various products, including rebar and hot-rolled steel [9][16]. - The report details specific price movements, such as a 70 CNY/ton increase for rebar and a 50 CNY/ton increase for high-speed wire [9][17]. Profit Situation - The report estimates an increase in steel profits, with significant improvements in margins for both long and short process steel production [9][33]. Production and Inventory - Total production of major steel products decreased to 7.98 million tons, with a notable drop in inventory levels, indicating a tightening supply situation [9][33]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report provides a detailed valuation and earnings forecast for key companies, all of which are rated as "Buy." For example, Hualing Steel is projected to have an EPS of 0.29 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 19 [2][3].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月19日，中信特钢在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司始终重视人才队伍建设， 并持续优化薪酬福利体系以激发团队活力。 ...

Group 1 - The report by the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute indicates that 16 Chinese steel enterprises achieved an A+ rating for competitiveness and development quality, nearing world-class standards [1] - A total of 109 steel enterprises were evaluated, with a combined crude steel output of 930 million tons, representing 92.6% of the national total [1] - The 16 A+ rated enterprises, including China Baowu Steel Group and Ansteel Group, accounted for 50.2% of the national crude steel output [1] Group 2 - There are 34 steel enterprises rated A (strong), making up 31.2% of the total evaluated, with a combined crude steel output of 24.2% of the national total [2] - 41 enterprises received a B+ (strong) rating, representing 37.6% of the evaluated total, with a crude steel output of 12.9% of the national total [2] - The domestic steel industry is facing challenges in profit margins compared to international leaders, attributed to lower proportions of high-value-added products, innovation capabilities, raw material cost control, and brand services [2] Group 3 - The Chinese steel industry is entering a phase of reduction in growth, emphasizing the need for enterprises to focus on high-end, green, intelligent, and integrated development to enhance overall competitiveness [2]

Group 1 - The report by the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute indicates that by 2025, 16 Chinese steel enterprises will achieve an A+ competitiveness rating, nearing world-class standards [1] - A total of 109 steel enterprises were evaluated, with a combined crude steel output of 930 million tons, representing 92.6% of the national total [1] - The 16 A+ rated enterprises, including China Baowu Steel Group and Ansteel Group, account for 50.2% of the national crude steel output [1] Group 2 - There are 34 steel enterprises rated A (strong), making up 31.2% of the total evaluated, with a combined crude steel output of 24.2% of the national total [2] - 41 enterprises received a B+ (strong) rating, representing 37.6% of the total evaluated, with a crude steel output of 12.9% of the national total [2] - The domestic steel enterprises still lag behind international leaders in profit margins and other metrics due to lower proportions of high-value, high-tech products, innovation capabilities, raw material cost control, and brand services [2] Group 3 - The Chinese steel industry is entering a phase of reduced growth, emphasizing the need for enterprises to focus on high-end, green, intelligent, and integrated development to enhance overall competitiveness [2]