"苏超"战火正炽，绿茵场上，除了每球必争的视觉盛宴，另一道亮眼图景——球员们身披的战袍，正悄 然化作解读江苏这一经济大省产业变迁的动态窗口。 赛场上跃动的球衣，不仅承载着球员的汗水与城市的荣耀，更展示出江苏大地绵延至今的产业升级脉络 ——球衣材质的进化，勾勒出旧动能向新动能的转变；球衣上各异的产业标识，拼合出"苏南引领、苏 中崛起、苏北赶超"的区域平衡格局；跨区域的产业链协同，更标志着江苏产业发展已迈向创新链、供 应链深度融合的高级形态。 方寸经纬间，藏山河气象。一件件奔跑的球衣，正如一幅微缩的动态经济图，织就江苏制造的过去、现 在与未来。 ● 本报记者 乔翔 针线之间 工业制造实现能级跃迁 "几十年前，我们穿着纯棉球衣在场上奔跑，踢完一场球，吸饱了汗水的球衣能重好几斤，像塑料布一 样糊在身上。"一位江苏老球迷回忆道，"后来，化纤材料用上了，既耐穿又轻便，跑动更有力了。" 球衣材质的演变，实为一部材料科技创新史——涤纶、锦纶等化纤材料逐渐成为运动服饰主流并不断升 级迭代。 "国际赛事球衣订单，给20天交付期，我们15天就能完成，因为我们有完整的产业链和面料功能性的相 关数据。"在江苏东渡纺织集团董事长徐卫民看 ...

证券之星消息，10月14日特钢板块较上一交易日下跌0.81%，翔楼新材领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3865.23，下跌0.62%。深证成指报收于12895.11，下跌2.54%。特钢板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002478 | 常宝股份 | 6.24 | 2.13% | 27.09万 | | 1.67亿 | | 603995 | 角金股份 | 18.55 | -0.22% | 8.69万 | | 1.61亿 | | 000708 | 中信特钢 | 13.90 | -0.36% | 23.29万 | | 3.26亿 | | 000825 | 太钢不锈 | 4.15 | -0.48% | 48.84万 | | 2.04亿 | | 600507 | 方大特钢 | 5.47 | -0.91% | 23.78万 | | 1.31亿 | | 002318 | 久立特材 | 25.93 | -1.11% | 14.81万 | | 3.88亿 | | 00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually bottom out in demand, with supply-side market clearing beginning to appear, leading to a potential recovery in the industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, facilitating quicker industry recovery [1]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Steel consumption for the week of October 6-10, 2025, was 7.5143 million tons, a decrease of 1.5339 million tons week-on-week. Construction steel consumption was 2.2262 million tons, down 1.0846 million tons, while plate steel consumption was 5.2881 million tons, down 0.4493 million tons. Steel production was 8.6331 million tons, a decrease of 0.0376 million tons, and total inventory rose to 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces at 247 steel mills was 84.27%, down 0.02 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates were 60.26%, down 1.28 percentage points. Despite a marginal decline in demand due to the National Day holiday, the industry remains in a traditional peak season, with expectations for gradual recovery in steel demand and inventory reduction [2]. Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 167.1 CNY, an increase of 24.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 112.1 CNY, up 29.3 CNY. The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 56.28%, a decrease of 0.43% [3]. - The expectation is for iron ore production to accelerate while demand remains limited, leading to a gradual easing of iron ore prices and improvement in cost constraints for the steel industry, with a potential recovery in profitability levels [3]. Future Outlook - The negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to diminish, with stable growth anticipated in demand from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. Steel exports maintained a year-on-year increase from January to August [4]. - Over 40% of steel companies are currently experiencing losses, but market clearing is beginning to occur. Recent policies aim to reduce production and promote a balance between supply and demand, supporting the expectation of supply contraction and gradual recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [4]. Recommended Companies - Key recommendations include Baosteel (600019) for its technological and product structure leadership, Hualing Steel (000932) for its product structure upgrades, and Fangda Special Steel (600507) for its low-cost advantages. Other recommendations include CITIC Special Steel (000708) for its competitive advantages and high dividend yield, as well as upstream resource companies like Hebei Steel Resources (000923) and Dazhong Mining (001203) due to their long-term growth potential [5].

- Model Name: Expected High Dividend Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model uses a two-stage approach to construct the expected dividend yield indicator. The first stage calculates the dividend yield based on the annual report's profit distribution, and the second stage predicts and calculates the dividend yield using historical dividends and fundamental indicators. Additionally, two short-term factors affecting dividend yield—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in screening, and the selection is made from the CSI 300 constituent stocks to construct the expected high dividend portfolio. The portfolio holds 30 stocks each period and rebalances monthly[3][8] - Model Construction Process: 1. Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituent stocks to form the candidate stock pool[13] 2. Exclude the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (i.e., the top 20% of stocks with the highest 21-day cumulative gains) from the stock pool[13] 3. Exclude stocks with declining profitability (i.e., stocks with a negative year-on-year growth rate of quarterly net profit)[13] 4. Rank the remaining stocks in the stock pool by expected dividend yield and select the top 30 stocks with the highest expected dividend yield to construct the portfolio equally weighted[9] - Model Evaluation: The model's historical performance is outstanding, with a cumulative return of 358.90% and a cumulative excess return of 107.44% relative to the CSI 300 Total Return Index. The annualized excess return is 8.87%, with a maximum rolling one-year drawdown of only 12.26% and a monthly excess win rate of 60.19%[11] Model Backtest Results - Expected High Dividend Portfolio, average return in September 2025: -5.35%, underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 8.09% and the CSI Dividend Index by 3.87%[3][14] - Best performing stocks in September 2025: CITIC Special Steel (3.81%), Yutong Bus (-0.35%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (-1.75%), Shuanghui Development (-1.90%)[15] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: Expected Dividend Yield Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed by predicting dividend distribution using the method of dividend distribution combined with fundamental indicators. Two short-term factors affecting dividend yield—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in screening[14] - Factor Construction Process: 1. Calculate the dividend yield based on the annual report's profit distribution[8] 2. Predict and calculate the dividend yield using historical dividends and fundamental indicators[8] - Factor Evaluation: The factor is used to assist in screening and constructing the expected high dividend portfolio, which has shown outstanding historical performance[3][8] Factor Backtest Results - Expected Dividend Yield Factor, average return in September 2025: -5.35%, underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 8.09% and the CSI Dividend Index by 3.87%[3][14]

10月13日，中信特钢盘中下跌2.13%，截至10:02，报13.76元/股，成交1.25亿元，换手率0.18%，总市值 694.49亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出670.74万元，特大单买入748.29万元，占比5.99%，卖出1015.94万元， 占比8.13%；大单买入1553.23万元，占比12.43%，卖出1956.31万元，占比15.65%。 中信特钢今年以来股价涨26.20%，近5个交易日涨3.61%，近20日涨7.25%，近60日涨9.38%。 中信特钢所属申万行业为：钢铁-特钢Ⅱ-特钢Ⅲ。所属概念板块包括：特种钢、水电概念、央企改革、 MSCI中国、大盘等。 截至6月30日，中信特钢股东户数4.34万，较上期增加5.17%；人均流通股116344股，较上期减少 4.92%。2025年1月-6月，中信特钢实现营业收入547.15亿元，同比减少4.02%；归母净利润27.98亿元， 同比增长2.67%。 分红方面，中信特钢A股上市后累计派现219.37亿元。近三年，累计派现99.52亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，中信特钢十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others in the special steel and pipe sectors [5]. Core Viewpoints - Steel mill profits are under pressure due to rising inventory levels and escalating overseas trade frictions, with production remaining high during the National Day holiday [5]. - The EU has proposed to cut tax-free steel import quotas by 47% to 18.3 million tons per year, increasing tariffs on excess imports from 25% to 50%, which may suppress steel exports from China and the US [5]. - Long-term capacity regulation is expected to be a key theme, with potential recovery in profitability for steel companies under precise control measures [5]. Price Trends - As of October 10, steel prices have increased, with rebar prices at 3,260 CNY/ton (up 50 CNY), hot-rolled prices at 3,400 CNY/ton (up 60 CNY), and cold-rolled prices at 3,810 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY) [3][12]. - The overall steel inventory has risen, with total social inventory increasing by 691,100 tons to 11,268,900 tons [4]. Production and Inventory - Total production of major steel products decreased to 8.63 million tons, a reduction of 37,600 tons week-on-week, with rebar production down to 2.034 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar fell to 1.4601 million tons, a decrease of 950,600 tons week-on-week [4]. Profitability - Steel margins have declined, with long-process rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 11 CNY/ton, 10 CNY/ton, and 15 CNY/ton respectively [3][5]. Key Company Forecasts and Valuations - Hualing Steel (EPS: 0.29 CNY, PE: 22), Baosteel (EPS: 0.34 CNY, PE: 21), and Nanjing Steel (EPS: 0.37 CNY, PE: 15) are highlighted as recommended stocks [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance and export trends of China's black metal smelting and rolling processing industry, highlighting a decline in export value in 2025 compared to previous years [1] Industry Summary - In August 2025, the export value of China's black metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 16.42 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.5% [1] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export value reached 133.89 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 2.2% [1] - The data indicates a downward trend in the export performance of the black metal industry over the specified period [1] Company Summary - The article lists several companies involved in the black metal industry, including CITIC Special Steel, Hebei Iron and Steel, and others, indicating their relevance in the market [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive market survey and investment outlook for the black metal mining and selection industry from 2026 to 2032, suggesting potential future developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery despite an overall downturn, with several companies, including Shandong Steel, reporting significant improvements in profitability and operational performance [1][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Shandong Steel expects a profit of approximately 632 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 2.196 billion yuan [1]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of around 140 million yuan, up approximately 15.91% year-on-year [1]. - Shandong Steel's half-year report indicated a revenue of 36.806 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.60% year-on-year, but a gross margin increase to 6.02%, up 4.15 percentage points [1]. - Other steel companies, such as Liugang Co., Anyang Steel, and New Steel, also reported improved profitability, with many turning losses into profits or significantly reducing losses [1][6]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The overall steel industry in China saw a 5.79% decline in revenue for key enterprises, while total profits increased by 63.26% year-on-year [6][7]. - The steel price index dropped by 7.09%, with specific products experiencing varying price declines [6]. - The profitability recovery is attributed to lower raw material costs and improved risk management practices among steel companies [5][12]. Group 3: Risk Management and Hedging - Steel companies are increasingly using hedging strategies to manage risks associated with price and currency fluctuations [10][11]. - Companies like Liugang and others have engaged in futures trading to hedge against raw material price volatility, effectively stabilizing their operational costs [10][12]. - The core value of hedging is to stabilize raw material costs, smooth out foreign exchange impacts, and enhance predictability of performance [12].

Core Insights - The special steel sector experienced a rise of 1.28% on October 10, with Fangda Special Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1] Stock Performance - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.58, up 3.91% with a trading volume of 351,000 shares and a turnover of 193 million yuan [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) closed at 6.03, up 3.79% with a trading volume of 274,400 shares and a turnover of 163 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Jinzhu Yidao (002443) up 1.73%, Xining Special Steel (600117) up 1.54%, and CITIC Special Steel (000708) up 1.52% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 45.41 million yuan from institutional investors and 51.81 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 97.22 million yuan [2] - Fangda Special Steel had a net inflow of 18.05 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 110,400 yuan [3] - Other companies like Changbao Co. and Xining Special Steel also experienced mixed capital flows, with varying levels of net inflows and outflows from different investor types [3]

从资金流向上来看，当日特钢板块主力资金净流入8835.18万元，游资资金净流出1377.01万元，散户资 金净流出7458.17万元。特钢板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，10月9日特钢板块较上一交易日上涨2.67%，久立特材领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3933.97，上涨1.32%。深证成指报收于13725.56，上涨1.47%。特钢板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002318 | 久立特材 | 26.33 | 8.04% | 29.51万 | | 7.57亿 | | 002443 | 金州管道 | 60'8 | 4.79% | 25.97万 | | 2.08亿 | | 301160 | 翔楼新材 | 62.05 | 3.78% | 3.61万 | | 2.24亿 | | 000825 | 太钢不锈 | 4.13 | 3.25% | 78.44万 | | 3.22亿 | | 300881 | 盛德整泰 | 35.35 | 2.58% | ...