Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Insights - The sentiment in the liquor sector is under pressure, particularly due to new regulations affecting government banquets, which are expected to further reduce demand for high-end liquor [5]. - Despite the current challenges, the overall valuation of the liquor sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in stock buybacks and increasing dividends, indicating potential for future capital inflow as domestic demand policies are anticipated [5]. - The new consumption sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, evolving consumer preferences, and technological innovations, creating structural opportunities [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has seen declines of -7.7% over the past month, -10.4% over three months, and -5.9% over the past year, contrasting with the Shanghai Composite Index which has shown a slight increase [3][4]. Recent News - In early June, the liquor price index saw a slight decline, and liquor prices dropped by 2% year-on-year in May. Additionally, several government departments are promoting digital transformation in the food industry [4][18]. Company Feedback - Companies like Wuliangye are accelerating the development of products targeting younger consumers, while Gu Yue Long Shan's new sparkling yellow wine sold out immediately upon launch. Shede Liquor reported no inventory backlog [4][18]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies within the food and beverage sector, including Ximai Food, Youyou Food, Ganyuan Food, Three Squirrels, and Dongpeng Beverage, highlighting their potential for growth in the new consumption landscape [8]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating a bullish outlook with "Buy" ratings for all listed companies, including Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Kweichow Moutai [10].

Core Insights - The overall trend in the liquor industry shows a 2.0% year-on-year decline in liquor prices as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics for May [2] - Significant personnel changes have occurred in major companies such as Moutai and Yanghe, indicating potential shifts in corporate strategy [6] - The introduction of new standards for low-alcohol liquor aims to align with national trends and international consumption patterns [4] Industry Dynamics - National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline and a 2.0% year-on-year decline in liquor prices for May [2] - The national white liquor price index fell by 0.27% in May, with famous liquor prices decreasing by 0.35% and local liquor prices by 0.28% [2] - A new group standard for "multi-grain low-alcohol fragrant liquor" has been proposed to regulate product quality [4] Company Developments - Moutai Group announced significant personnel changes, with two executives taking on new roles within the company [6] - Yanghe Co. announced the resignation of a board member due to work relocation, indicating potential shifts in governance [6] - Luzhou Laojiao was included in the "China Archives and Document Heritage List," enhancing its cultural significance [6] Marketing Strategies - Yanjing Beer is implementing a "beer + beverage" marketing strategy to cater to younger consumers, focusing on dining scenarios [6] - The strategy aims to leverage synergies in production and supply chains between beer and soft drinks [6] - The summer season presents growth opportunities for the beer industry, encouraging companies to innovate in product and marketing approaches [6] Awards and Recognition - Five liquor brands were recognized in the fourth batch of Shanxi's "Sanjin Old Brand" list, highlighting regional brand strength [4] - Sichuan Province announced the top ten innovative marketing examples for local liquor brands, showcasing successful marketing strategies [4] Events - The fifth China (Ningxia) International Wine Culture and Tourism Expo was held, featuring various activities to promote the wine industry [5]

Group 1 - The 34th Beijing International Yanjing Beer Culture Festival will take place from July 11 to July 20 at the Capital International Exhibition Center, lasting for 10 days [1][3] - The festival will feature a music festival with performances from well-known bands and singers, with ticket prices starting at 9.9 yuan, and exclusive beer flavors available only at the event [1][3] - The main venue will include a dining area, tasting area, and upgraded international food corridor, showcasing over 70 types of global cuisine and more than 100 craft beers [3][5] Group 2 - The festival will also include various entertainment options such as a campus dance competition, youth singing contest, and unique attractions like a robot football challenge and a children's amusement area [3][4] - The event will provide 3,700 parking spaces and public transport options, including dedicated bus services to facilitate access for residents [4] - Ticket options include basic tickets at 9.9 yuan, tasting tickets at 19.9 yuan, and special packages for tents and starry rooms, with early bird discounts available [4][5] Group 3 - The festival has evolved over 30 years to become a significant platform for showcasing the economy, culture, and cuisine of Shunyi, and is recognized as a key consumption promotion activity by the Ministry of Commerce [5]

Core Points - The 34th Beijing International Yanjing Beer Culture Festival will take place from July 11 to July 20, 2025, at the Capital International Exhibition Center, featuring a 10-day event with upgraded activities for a diverse summer experience [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The festival is one of the most popular summer activities for citizens, having successfully held 33 editions [3]. - This year, the main venue will be at the Capital International Exhibition Center, with additional venues at the Sino-German Industrial Park and Shunyi Olympic Water Park, along with 217 beer gardens nationwide [3]. - The festival will coincide with other exhibitions such as the Chain Expo and Animation Expo, allowing visitors to enjoy a combined experience of exhibitions and beer tasting [3]. Group 2: Activities and Offerings - The event will feature a cross-border music festival on the main stage and outdoor areas with unique attractions like a robot soccer challenge and a children's play area [3]. - A "100-meter craft beer corridor" will showcase over 100 unique craft beers, including innovative flavors aimed at younger consumers [3]. - The food offerings will include over 70 international dishes, such as steak burgers, fried chicken, and local specialties like Xinjiang barbecue and Hubei crayfish [4]. Group 3: Additional Summer Activities - Starting July 25, weekend summer activities will be held at Shunyi Olympic Water Park, continuing the beer festival theme throughout the summer [4]. - Visitors can enjoy outdoor beer drinking and various water sports like sailing and kayaking [4]. Group 4: Ticketing Information - The festival offers various ticket types, including basic tickets at 9.9 yuan, tasting tickets at 19.9 yuan, and special options like tents and stargazing rooms priced at 899 yuan and 1299 yuan respectively, with early bird discounts available [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends and dynamics in the liquor industry, focusing on the rise of craft beer, the competition among major liquor brands in Hong Kong, and the strategies employed by companies during the off-season to engage consumers [1]. Industry Environment - The craft beer market is experiencing significant growth, driven by instant retail, with some retailers reporting sales increases of 20%-35%. However, traditional liquor distributors remain cautious due to short shelf life and supply chain challenges [2]. - The light bottle liquor market is projected to reach 150 billion by 2024, with potential to exceed 200 billion in the next decade. The "Bashi" brand from Sichuan Chunquan Group is gaining traction in Jiangsu, targeting the 30-60 yuan price range [3]. - Major Chinese liquor brands are rapidly expanding into the Hong Kong market, leveraging tax reductions and differentiated strategies to attract mid-to-high-end consumers, despite facing competition from foreign spirits [5]. - The liquor industry is shifting focus from channel-driven strategies to consumer-driven approaches, with companies like Moutai and Xijiu enhancing brand engagement through immersive experiences [6]. Future Predictions - The liquor industry is expected to undergo three major changes in the next decade: a shift towards smoother flavors to appeal to younger consumers, increased concentration among leading brands, and accelerated integration across different liquor categories [7]. Brand Dynamics - Yanjing Beer has successfully transitioned from single-point marketing to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, significantly increasing its revenue and profitability through high-end product offerings [11][12]. - Kuaizi Jiu is establishing a cultural benchmark with the opening of the largest brewing heritage exhibition hall in China, enhancing its brand's historical significance and supporting its high-end strategy [13]. - The "Shancheng Beer" trademark dispute highlights the challenges foreign brands face in local markets, with Carlsberg's strategy facing scrutiny due to declining brand value [14]. - Wuliangye's "He Mei" wedding event exemplifies the integration of traditional culture and modern marketing, promoting brand engagement through experiential marketing [15]. - China Resources Beer’s dual empowerment strategy for beer and liquor is underperforming, with its liquor segment failing to meet growth targets [17]. - Yanjing Beer is struggling with high-end positioning amidst a competitive landscape, facing challenges in revenue growth and market strategy [18]. - Guojiao 1573 is innovating through cultural narratives, collaborating with intangible cultural heritage artisans to enhance brand identity and consumer connection [19]. - Shacheng Laojiao has achieved remarkable growth, with projected revenue of 1.4 billion in 2024, driven by strategic market focus and product offerings [20]. - Water Well Square is promoting cultural values through its collaboration with artist Zhu Bingren, enhancing brand visibility during the Dragon Boat Festival [21]. - Liu Ling Zui Jiu is leveraging cultural heritage to establish a strong market presence, focusing on product diversity and consumer experience [23]. - Hongxing Erguotou has been recognized as a leading consumer brand in Beijing, emphasizing quality and cultural heritage in its production processes [24].

Group 1: Current Status of the Beer Industry - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 6.1% year-on-year from January to October 2024, indicating stable consumer demand [2][14] - China's beer production has shown steady growth since 2021, with low industry inventory levels in 2023 and strong confidence among distributors [2][17] - The market is highly concentrated, with five major brands (China Resources, Tsingtao, Yanjing, Chongqing, and Zhujiang) holding 70% of the market share, and Yanjing Beer reported a remarkable net profit growth of 94.3% in 2023 [2][17] Group 2: Trends in Beer Consumption Demand - Beer has gained significant popularity on social media, with a 260% year-on-year increase in social media mentions, leading the beverage industry [3][24] - The flavor profile of beer is diversifying, with white beer and fruit-flavored beers gaining traction, and the integration of tea flavors becoming a new trend [3][27] - The market for non-alcoholic and low-alcohol beers is rapidly growing, with a market value of 94.07 billion yuan in 2023, expected to increase its market share by 4% by 2027 [3][19] Group 3: Future Development Trends in the Beer Industry - Product innovation is on the rise, with a focus on integrating Chinese tea culture into beer, and packaging trends leaning towards functionality and sustainability [4][17] - Health-conscious products are emerging, such as zero-sugar and zero-alcohol beers, with brands like Suntory introducing vitamin D-infused non-alcoholic options [4][19] - Marketing strategies are evolving, with platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu being key for brand promotion, and live-streaming sales gaining traction [4][30]

事件：近日，我们参加了燕京啤酒2025 年度分析师及投资者交流会，核心感受为：公司内部士气高 涨，在十四五圆满收官的基础上，十五五阶段将持续打磨内功，做优做强，在管理体系建设、市场建 设、供应链转型、数字化建设等多方面深耕突破，持续实现业绩增长，整体信心充足。 此外公司会强化组织&人才保障措施，为增长持续提供动力。 盈利预测：我们预计，公司25-27 年实现营收155.1/161.9/167.2 亿元，分别同比+5.7%/+4.4%/+3.3%，实 现归母净利润14.1/16.9/19.5 亿元，分别同比+33.8%/+19.3%/+15.6%，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：原材料成本大幅上涨，行业竞争加剧，U8 增长不及预期。 公司对U8 单品未来增长策略清晰，优势市场深挖单点效率+非即饮渠道推广；弱势市场加大建设力 度。从公司目标角度看，U8 阶段性销量占比目标为30%，距离现有规模仍有较大空间。燕京啤酒对U8 单品未来增长落地策略清晰。在已有优势市场，主要深挖终端单点效率，以及在非即饮渠道提升罐装产 品销量。同时加大弱势市场建设力度，以总分共建方式组合公司资源，推进百城工作，在"高容量、高 结构、高成长 ...

Group 1 - Yang Weiguo resigned from the board of Yanghe Co., Ltd. due to work adjustments, raising concerns about corporate governance and strategic stability [1] - Zhangyu A announced the sale of its 100% stake in French ETABLISSEMENTS ROULLET FRANSAC for €2.6 million and related real estate for €2.2 million, totaling approximately ¥39.32 million, which may improve cash flow but reduce overseas business scale [2] - Yanjing Beer has implemented a "beer + beverage" marketing strategy targeting young consumers, focusing on dining scenarios, which may attract investor attention towards its market expansion capabilities [3] Group 2 - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association is soliciting opinions on the group standard for "multi-grain low-alcohol fragrant liquor," aligning with the trend towards lower alcohol content and potentially guiding product structure adjustments in the liquor industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [5][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for high-end liquor continues to face pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverages are entering a demand peak [11][1]. - The liquor index has decreased by 0.9%, indicating ongoing short-term fundamental pressures [13]. - The report suggests three investment themes in the liquor sector: 1) Leading companies with proven risk resilience such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; 2) Companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing positive feedback from digital initiatives and are undervalued; 3) Brands like Jinsiyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu that still have market share growth potential [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have slightly declined, with Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and international product launches indicating a strategic shift [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to focus on expanding its market presence and enhancing brand image [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies moving forward [12]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer industry is expected to enter a peak sales phase, with potential for good performance due to low comparative bases from the previous year [14]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with leading companies driving efficiency across the supply chain [15]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with new product launches and channel breakthroughs, such as Wei Long and Yihai International [15]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 75.28 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.0 [4]. - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.44 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.8 [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's forecasted EPS is 9.64 for 2025, with a PE ratio of 12.1 [4]. 4. Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.65% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.78 percentage points [20]. - The report indicates that the beverage sector is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for high-end liquor continues to face pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverages are entering a demand peak [2][11]. - The liquor index has decreased by 0.9%, indicating ongoing short-term fundamental pressures [13]. - The report suggests three investment themes: 1) Leading liquor companies with proven risk resilience such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; 2) Luzhou Laojiao, which is showing signs of digital transformation and valuation recovery; 3) Companies like Jinsiyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu that have potential for market share growth [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have slightly declined, with Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and international product launches being significant developments [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to focus on expanding its market presence and improving brand image [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and channel management for liquor companies [2][11]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer industry is expected to enter a peak sales phase, benefiting from a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with leading companies enhancing efficiency across the supply chain [15]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with new product launches and channel breakthroughs, such as Wei Long and Yihai International [15]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 75.28 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.0 [4]. - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.44 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.8 [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's EPS is forecasted at 9.64 for 2025, with a PE ratio of 12.1 [4]. 4. Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.65% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.78 percentage points [20]. - The report indicates that the beverage sector is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [19].