Group 1 - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 to 1.742 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65% [1] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be 1.457 to 1.561 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [1] - The profit growth is attributed to both the improvement in the main business and the recognition of land reserve payments from subsidiaries, which will add approximately 132 million yuan to the net profit [1] Group 2 - In the context of a weak recovery in consumption, the beer industry has seen a slowdown in production growth, with a reported 0.3% year-on-year decline in national beer production from January to November 2025 [2] - The company is optimizing its product matrix and expanding sales channels, focusing on high-end and youth-oriented strategies, with the flagship product Yanjing U8 experiencing significant sales growth [2] - The product structure includes a three-tier framework of high-end, mid-range, and regional specialty products, along with differentiated offerings like non-alcoholic white beer and dry beer to meet diverse consumer needs [2] Group 3 - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.596 billion, 1.886 billion, and 2.178 billion yuan respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 22x, 18x, and 16x [3] - The rapid growth of the flagship product U8 is expected to drive sustained performance, and there remains significant room for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3] - The company is rated as "buy" based on its position as a leading domestic beer brand and its growth potential [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the coming years [5]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 to 1.742 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65%. The company attributes this growth to both operational improvements and the recognition of land reserve payments from subsidiaries, which are expected to contribute approximately 132 million yuan to net profit [1][3]. - The company has been optimizing its product matrix and expanding its sales channels, focusing on high-end and youthful strategies. The flagship product, Yanjing U8, has seen significant sales growth, becoming a key driver of revenue [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 1.584 billion and 1.742 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 50% to 65% year-on-year. The expected net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is 15.32%, which is still below industry peers but improving as reforms progress [1]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.596 billion yuan for 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 22x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to future earnings [3]. Product and Market Strategy - Yanjing Beer is enhancing its product structure with a focus on the high-growth flagship product Yanjing U8, complemented by mid-to-high-end products like Yanjing V10 and regional specialties. The company is also introducing differentiated products such as non-alcoholic beers to cater to diverse consumer preferences [2]. - The sales strategy includes a dual approach of "full-channel integration and regional deep cultivation," aiming to penetrate both strong and emerging markets while adapting to consumer trends [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a steady increase in net profit from 1.596 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.178 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 22x to 16x, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity as the company continues to grow [3][10]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 37.6% in 2023 to 43.1% by 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and cost management [12].

Core Viewpoint - The non-liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.99% on January 21, with Yanjing Beer leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.7% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-liquor sector's stocks showed mixed performance, with notable declines in several companies, including Chongqing Beer down by 0.17% and Jinfeng Wine down by 0.18% [1] - The closing prices and percentage changes of key stocks in the non-liquor sector were detailed, highlighting the overall downward trend [1] Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - The trading volume and value for various stocks in the non-liquor sector were reported, with ST Lanhua showing a significant increase of 3.41% in closing price and a trading volume of 49,300 hands, amounting to 51.73 million yuan [1] - The total trading volume and value for the non-liquor sector indicated active trading despite the overall decline [2] Group 3: Capital Flow - The non-liquor sector saw a net outflow of 93.45 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 28.66 million yuan [2] - The capital flow data revealed that retail investors were more active in the market compared to institutional investors, with specific stocks like Guyue Longshan experiencing significant retail inflows [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yanjing Beer forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.583 billion to 1.742 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65% [1] Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - The company is firmly advancing its major product strategy, focusing on product strength, brand power, and channel capability while actively exploring innovative paths [1] - Yanjing Beer is implementing a strategy of brand rejuvenation, fashion orientation, and premiumization, alongside a gradient market development strategy [1] Group 2: Operational Improvements - The company is continuously tackling transformations in key business areas such as production, marketing, market, and supply chain, diligently promoting various strategic measures [1] - Yanjing Beer is enhancing its organizational mechanisms to ensure robust operational efficiency and growth potential through product upgrades, market upgrades, and management upgrades [1] Group 3: Performance Outlook - The company reports that its flagship product, Yanjing U8, continues to maintain a steady growth trend [1] - Overall, the operational efficiency and growth potential of the company are showing continuous improvement, leading to better business performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yanjing Beer has demonstrated impressive performance over the past 25 years, with expectations for continued breakthroughs in 2026, driven by strong growth in major products and steady profit margin improvements [1] Revenue Summary - The company's major product U8 series has a well-established matrix and is experiencing rapid growth [1] - The implementation of a "beer + beverage" marketing strategy is expected to generate new revenue sources, with products like Beisite soda and natto contributing to this growth [1] Profit Summary - The acceleration of premiumization, combined with advancements in production, market strategies, and supply chain reforms, is anticipated to further enhance profit elasticity [1] - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders to grow by 60.6% in 2025, 18.3% in 2026, and 15.0% in 2027, reaching 1.7 billion, 2.01 billion, and 2.31 billion yuan respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 15.8-17.4 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50-65%, which aligns with previous expectations and exceeds market consensus [7] - The company has demonstrated strong growth due to ongoing reforms, with a projected net profit of RMB 16.6 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.5% [7] - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades and expanding its beverage business, which is anticipated to drive future growth [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 14,213 million - 2024: RMB 14,667 million (growth rate: 3.2%) - 2025: RMB 15,319 million (growth rate: 4.4%) - 2026: RMB 16,264 million (growth rate: 6.2%) - 2027: RMB 17,020 million (growth rate: 4.6%) [3] - EBITDA is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 3,724 million by 2027 [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 645 million in 2023 to RMB 2,371 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.9% in 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.23 in 2023 to RMB 0.84 in 2027 [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 37.7 in 2023 to 14.9 in 2027, indicating improved valuation [3] Strategic Focus - The company is undergoing comprehensive reforms, with a focus on enhancing its product offerings and operational efficiency, which is expected to lead to improved profit margins [7] - The introduction of the "燕京 U8" product aims to capture the preferences of younger consumers and drive national expansion [7] - The company is also exploring the health food segment with its natto products, indicating a diversification strategy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.58-1.74 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50-65% [1] - The company expects a non-recurring net profit of 1.46-1.56 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 40-50% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - For 2025, the average forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58% [1] - The expected non-recurring net profit for 2025 is 1.51 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 45% [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.34 billion, 15.97 billion, and 16.56 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 4.1%, and 3.7% respectively [2] Group 2: Profit Drivers - The increase in profits is attributed to land reserve acquisitions by subsidiaries and ongoing internal reforms that enhance profit margins [1] - The company is diversifying its business beyond beer, including ventures into natto and beverages, which is expected to further improve profit margins [1] Group 3: Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of -110 million yuan, a reduction in losses by 120 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The expected non-recurring net profit for Q4 2025 is -180 million yuan, a decrease in losses by 44.58 million yuan year-on-year [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.25 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a projected net profit for 2025 ranging from RMB 1.58 billion to RMB 1.74 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65% [6]. - The company anticipates a reduction in losses for Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, driven by land reserve contributions and operational improvements [6]. - The U8 product line is expected to continue its rapid growth, supported by strategic market expansions and new product launches at a price point of RMB 10 [7][9]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 14.67 billion in 2024, RMB 15.14 billion in 2025, RMB 15.48 billion in 2026, and RMB 15.84 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 3.20%, 3.24%, 2.25%, and 2.32% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 1.06 billion in 2024, RMB 1.68 billion in 2025, RMB 1.95 billion in 2026, and RMB 2.25 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 63.74%, 59.29%, 16.09%, and 15.12% respectively [5]. - The company’s EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0.37 in 2024 to RMB 0.80 in 2027 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 33.40 in 2024 to 15.69 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5]. - The target price of RMB 17.25 corresponds to a PE of 25x for 2026, reflecting a higher growth rate compared to peers [9][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and reducing costs, which is expected to enhance profit margins [8]. - The beverage business is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, particularly in core markets [7]. - The company is also benefiting from trends towards health-conscious products, particularly in its natto business [7].

1、如何看待Q4减亏？ 25Q4土地收储贡献5700万利润，中值计算25Q4经营性利润/扣非归母减亏了6717万/4458万元，考虑到24Q4公司营 业外支出高达4342万元、23Q4/22Q4仅为390/64万元，我们认为燕京依然具备较大的利润释放空间，或因25Q4收 入端并未享受春节备货红利，#26Q1开门红值得期待，再次强调燕京啤酒作为国企是兼具开门红意愿与能力的企 业； 2025年公司预计实现归母净利润15.8-17.4亿元，同比+50-65%，实现扣非归母净利润14.6-15.6亿元，同比+40- 50%； 2025年实现归母净利润16.6亿元、同比+57.5%，实现扣非归母净利润15.1亿元，同比+45%； 25Q4单季度归母净利润-1.1亿元，同比减亏1.2亿，实现扣非归母净利润-1.8亿元，同比减亏4458万元。 【广发食品】燕京啤酒2025年业绩预告点评 2025年公司预计实现归母净利润15.8-17.4亿元，同比+50-65%，实现扣非归母净利润14.6-15.6亿元，同比+40- 50%； 2025年实现归母净利润16.6亿元、同比+57.5%，实现扣非归母净利润15.1亿元，同比+45 ...

北京控股（00392）公布，燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）预期2025年归母净利为约15.835亿-17.42亿元，同比 增长50%-65%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润约14.57亿-15.61亿元，同比增长40%-50%。 报告期内，燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）坚定推进大单品战略，围绕产品力、品牌力、渠道力积极探寻创新 路径，深化卓越管理体系建设，推行品牌年轻化、时尚化、高端化建设，实施梯度化市场开发策略，燕 京 U8 继续保持稳健增长态势。燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）持续攻坚生产、营销、市场和供应链等关键业 务领域变革，扎实推进各项战略举措，强健组织机制保障，以产品升级、市场升级和管理升级，全面提 升管理质效，系统激活运营效率和增长潜力，企业经营效益持续向好。 2025 年度非经常性损益主要系燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）确认了子公司土地收储款，增加归母净利润约 1.32 亿元。 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 北京控股（00392）公布，燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）预期2025年归母净利为约15.835亿-17.42亿元，同比 增长50%-65% ...