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钢材周报:螺纹累库加快,钢价震荡运行-20260202
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 09:32
螺纹累库加快,钢价震荡运行 (2) 需求:螺纹需求偏弱,热卷需求仍有韧性。上周螺纹表观需求为176.5万吨(-9.12),热轧表观需求311.41万吨(+1.45)。 (3)库存: 螺纹库存累库,热卷库存维持去化,仍有压力。 螺纹钢总库存475.53万吨(+23.43),社会库存326.4万吨(+23.28),钢厂库存149.13万吨(+0.15); 热轧总库存355.58万吨(-2.2),社会库存278.33万吨(-2.81),钢厂库存77.25万吨(+0.61)。 (4)基差:截至1月30日,螺纹主力合约基差122元/吨(-6),热轧主力合约基差-18元/吨(-3)。 (5)总结: 钢厂盈利率回落至39.39%; 铁水产量277.98万吨,环比减少0.12万吨。 高炉开工率79%,环比上升0.32%,高炉产能利用率85.47%,环比降低0.04%; 电炉开工率70.66%,环比下降 钢材周报 20250202 周贵升 从业资格证:F3036194 投资咨询证:Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证:F03131526 成材:螺纹累库加快,钢价震荡运行 (1)供给:部分钢厂复产,全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为1 ...
供需双弱,多晶硅持续走弱
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 07:44
Report Summary Industry Information - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries, analyzing their price trends, supply - demand situations, and downstream market conditions [1][2][3] Core Views - The current situation of industrial silicon is characterized by weak supply and demand, with high inventory difficult to reduce, but strong cost support below. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [2] - Polysilicon is also facing weak supply and demand, with high inventory levels. Affected by weak market sentiment, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract closed at 8850 yuan/ton [2][4][6] - **Supply**: Xinjiang's large factories implemented production cuts at the end of last month, and the overall industrial silicon production decreased month - on - month. The national industrial silicon furnace - opening number was 224, the start - up rate was 27.79%, and the weekly output was 8.36 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons [2][16][18] - **Demand**: The weekly start - up of polysilicon was basically stable, and pre - holiday stocking was completed. The start - up of organic silicon increased slightly, but there were expectations of a decline in February. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises was divided. In December, industrial silicon exports were 5.49 tons, a 7% month - on - month decrease and a 2% year - on - year increase [2] - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from last week [2] - **Price Difference**: As of January 30, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and that of Xinjiang was 250 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [8][10] Polysilicon - **Price**: As of January 30, the spot price of N - type dense material was 57500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1500 yuan/ton from last week; the futures main contract closed at 47140 yuan/ton [3][12][14] - **Supply**: Since mid - last month, leading enterprises have actively implemented production suspension and reduction plans, and the supply has shrunk. The output in February will decline significantly month - on - month [3] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of downstream silicon wafer enterprises was low, and they were resistant to high - priced silicon materials. In December, polysilicon imports were 1872.8 tons, a 77% month - on - month increase; exports were 1670.4 tons, a 48% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the polysilicon factory inventory was 30.27 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from last week [3][20][22] Downstream Markets - **Silicon Wafers**: As of January 30, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) decreased by 0.125, 0.125, 0.065 and 0.075 yuan/piece respectively from last week [24][26] - **External - demand Battery Cells**: As of January 30, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon increased by 0.025 yuan/watt respectively from last week [28][30] - **Components**: As of January 30, the prices of 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon increased by 0.02 yuan/watt respectively from last week [32][34] - **Organic Silicon**: As of January 30, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up increased slightly last week, with maintenance expected in February [37] - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of January 30, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23700 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The start - up rate of recycled aluminum enterprises declined [39][41]
铁矿石周报20260127:供应宽松,盘面震荡运行-20260127
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 07:18
博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 供应宽松,盘面震荡运行 铁矿石周报 20260127 周贵升 从业资格证:F3036194 投资咨询证:Z0015986 交易逻辑:供应宽松,盘面震荡运行 供应:外矿方面,1月19日-1月25日,全球铁矿石发运总量2978.3万吨,环比增加48.5万吨;澳洲发运量1837.4万吨,环比增 加149.3万吨;巴西发运量544.8万吨,环比减少8.9万吨,非主流矿发运量1018.9万吨,环比减少156.7万吨。中国45港到港总 量2530万吨,环比减少129.7万吨。内矿方面,截至1月23日,全国186家矿山铁精粉日均产量46.95万吨,环比增0.28万吨,产 能利用率60.09%,环比增0.37%;矿山精粉库存88.9万吨,环比增1.4万吨。 需求:1月23日当周,日均铁水产量228.1万吨,环比+0.09万吨。钢厂复产节奏有所放缓,铁水产量基本持稳,且钢厂利润偏低, 制约矿石采购积极性,临近春节假期,冬储补库需求有一定支撑。 库存:本期进口矿库存持续回升,在港船舶数量增加1艘至118艘。本期压港小幅增加,到港量小幅回落仍维持高位,疏港量小 幅回落,港口库存持续累积,对 ...
双焦周报20260126:补库偏谨慎,盘面弱势震荡-20260126
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 09:10
Report Title - **Title**: "补库偏谨慎,盘面弱势震荡 双焦周报 20260126" [1] - **Author**: Zhou Guisheng [1] - **Qualification**: F3036194 (从业资格证), Z0015986 (投资咨询证) [1] Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views **Coking Coal** - Last week, the coking coal market saw both supply and demand increase. Affected by the news of the closure of the Mongolian coal port during the Spring Festival, there was a certain rebound. After the New Year's Day, coal mines resumed normal production, and domestic supply gradually recovered. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal imports remained at a high level in the new year. On the demand side, the daily average iron - making water output increased slightly, but a sudden accident at a steel mill led to safety inspections affecting part of the iron - making water output. Coke production remained stable for the time being, and coking and steel plants still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Overall, domestic coal mine operations are gradually picking up, imports remain at a high level year - on - year, supply is gradually increasing, while downstream coking and steel enterprises are not making good profits, and their willingness to accept coking coal price increases is decreasing. The market generally maintains a low - level shock [3]. **Coke** - In terms of supply, most coking enterprises currently maintain normal production, coke production remains stable, and steel mill coke production has increased, with overall supply increasing slightly. On the demand side, terminal steel consumption is still in the off - season, steel mill profits are declining, and since steel mill coke inventories are at medium - to - high levels, they mainly replenish inventory according to demand. Overall, the current coke market has both supply and demand increasing, the inventory level is relatively reasonable, market competition has intensified, and it is expected that the futures market will follow and maintain low - level shocks. Attention should be paid to the winter storage and inventory replenishment demand [4]. Summary by Directory **Part One: Market Views** **Coking Coal Supply** - The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 89.33% (+0.86%), the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.01 tons (+0.16). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal - washing plants was 37.41% (+0.62%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.63 tons (+0.28). The operating rate of mines and the daily average output of mine clean coal continued to rise month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate and clean coal output of coal - washing plants also continued to rise month - on - month. In terms of imported coal, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remained at a high level last week, and overall supply gradually increased [3]. **Coking Coal Demand** - The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel plants was 228.1 tons (+0.09), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68% (-0.16%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel plants were 12.88 days (-0.03), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 14.97 days (+0.62). The blast furnace operating rate of steel plants decreased slightly, the daily average output of molten iron increased slightly month - on - month, the available days of coking coal in steel plants decreased slightly, and the available days of coking coal in coking plants increased. There is a certain demand for inventory replenishment in the downstream [3]. **Coking Coal Inventory** - The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 274.35 tons (+1.98), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1177.71 tons (+44.86), the inventory of steel plants was 803.24 tons (+1.04), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 323.23 tons (-1.89), and the inventory of main ports was 289.38 tons (-9.52). Currently, the inventories of coking coal mines, coking plants, and steel plants have accumulated slightly, while those of coal - washing plants and ports have decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [3]. **Coke Supply** - The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 66 yuan/ton (-1). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.41% (-0.14%), and the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.31 tons (-0.14). The daily output of coke from 247 steel plants was 46.9 tons (+0.18). The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants decreased slightly in losses, and steel plants' resistance to the first round of coke price increases increased, putting pressure on coking profits. However, overall production remained stable, mainly because some coking enterprises had smooth shipments, inventory decreased, and production enthusiasm increased [4]. **Coke Demand** - The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel plants was 228.1 tons (+0.09), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68% (-0.16%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel plants were 12.35 days (+0.38). The daily average output of molten iron increased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory usage cycle of steel plant coke increased, and steel plants mainly purchased coke according to demand [4]. **Coke Inventory** - The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 81.45 tons (-0.36), the inventory of main ports was 196.06 tons (+7.99), and the inventory of 247 steel plants was 661.46 tons (+11.31). The inventory of coking plants decreased slightly, the inventories of steel plants and ports increased slightly, and the overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. **Part Two: Macro - real Estate Tracking** - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - and medium - sized cities' weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no analysis is provided in the text [6][10][14][18] **Part Three: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking** - The report tracks various data related to coking coal, including purchase prices, spot price comparisons, basis spreads, production, operating rates, inventories, and customs clearance vehicle numbers at ports, but no analysis is provided in the text [21][26][31][35][37][39][42][45][51][54] **Part Four: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking** - The report tracks various data related to coke, including factory prices, spot price adjustment schedules, spot price comparisons, basis spreads, profit per ton, production, capacity utilization rates, inventories, and inventory available days, but no analysis is provided in the text [59][61][63][67][73][76][78][83][88]
钢材周报20250126:需求季节性下降,钢价震荡运行-20260126
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 08:51
需求季节性下降,,钢价震荡运行 钢材周报 20250126 周贵升 从业资格证:F3036194 投资咨询证:Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证:F03131526 成材:需求季节性下降,钢价震荡运行 (1)供给:部分钢厂复产,全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为199.55万吨(+9.25),热轧当周产量为305.41万吨(-2.95)。 (2) 需求:需求季节性弱势。上周螺纹表观需求为185.52万吨(-4.82),热轧表观需求309.96万吨(-4.2)。 (3)库存: 螺纹库存累库,热卷库存维持去化,仍有压力。 螺纹钢总库存452.1万吨(+14.03),社会库存303.12万吨(+7.71),钢厂库存148.98万吨(+6.32); 热轧总库存357.78万吨(-4.55),社会库存281.14万吨(-4.66),钢厂库存76.64万吨(+0.11)。 (4)基差:截至1月23日,螺纹主力合约基差128元/吨(-9),热轧主力合约基差-15元/吨(0)。 (5)总结: 钢厂盈利率上升至40.69%; 铁水产量228.1万吨,环比增加0.09万吨。 高炉开工率78.68%,环比下降0.16%,高炉产能利用率 ...
弘业期货(03678) - 第五届董事会第十次会议决议公告
2026-01-23 12:08
蘇豪弘業期貨股份有限公司 第五屆董事會第十次會議決議公告 本公告乃本公司根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作 出。 茲 載 列 本 公 司 於 深 圳 證 券 交 易 所 網 站 刊 發 之《蘇 豪 弘 業 期 貨 股 份 有 限 公 司 第 五 屆 董 事 會 第 十 次 會 議 決 議 公 告》,僅 供 參 閱。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責,對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明,並 明 確 表 示,概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 Holly Futures ( 於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 , 中文公司名稱蘇豪弘業期貨股 份有限公司 , 在香港 以 Holly Futures 的名義開展業務 ) ( 「 本 公 司 」 ) (股 份 代 號:3678) 海外監管公告 承董事會命 董事長兼執行董事 儲開榮先生 中國南京 2026年1月23日 於 本 公 告 日 期,董 事 會 成 員 包 括 執 行 董 事 儲 開 榮 先 生 及 ...
弘业期货(03678) - 关於独立非执行董事辞职暨补选公司第五届董事会独立非执行董事的公告
2026-01-23 11:55
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責,對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明,並 明 確 表 示,概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 Holly Futures ( 於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 , 中文公司名稱蘇豪弘業期貨股 份有限公司 , 在香港 以 Holly Futures 的名義開展業務 ) ( 「 本 公 司 」 ) (股 份 代 號:3678) 海外監管公告 蘇豪弘業期貨股份有限公司 關於獨立非執行董事辭職暨補選公司第五屆董事會 獨立非執行董事的公告 本公告乃本公司根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作 出。 茲 載 列 本 公 司 於 深 圳 證 券 交 易 所 網 站 刊 發 之《蘇 豪 弘 業 期 貨 股 份 有 限 公 司 關 於 獨 立 非 執 行 董 事 辭 職 暨 補 選 公 司 第 五 屆 董 事 會 獨 立 非 執 行 董 事 的 公 告》,僅 供 參 閱。 承董事會命 董事長兼執行董事 儲開榮先生 中國南京 2026 ...
弘业期货(03678) - 独立董事提名人声明
2026-01-23 11:49
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責,對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明,並 明 確 表 示,概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 Holly Futures ( 於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 , 中文公司名稱蘇豪弘業期貨股 份有限公司 , 在香港 以 Holly Futures 的名義開展業務 ) ( 「 本 公 司 」 ) (股 份 代 號:3678) 海外監管公告 蘇豪弘業期貨股份有限公司 獨立董事提名人聲明 本公告乃本公司根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作 出。 茲 載 列 本 公 司 於 深 圳 證 券 交 易 所 網 站 刊 發 之《蘇 豪 弘 業 期 貨 股 份 有 限 公 司 獨 立 董 事 提 名 人 聲 明》,僅 供 參 閱。 承董事會命 董事長兼執行董事 儲開榮先生 中國南京 2026年1月23日 於 本 公 告 日 期,董 事 會 成 員 包 括 執 行 董 事 儲 開 榮 先 生 及 趙 偉 雄 先 生;非 執 行 董 ...
弘业期货:王宇伟获提名为独立非执行董事候选人
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-23 11:48
Group 1 - The company announced that Mr. Huang Dechun has served as an independent non-executive director for six years and has submitted his resignation from this position, as well as from the roles of chairman of the remuneration committee and member of the audit committee, nomination committee, and strategic and ESG committee [1] - Mr. Huang's resignation will take effect when the company holds a temporary shareholders' meeting to elect a new independent non-executive director [1] - Until the resignation takes effect, Mr. Huang will continue to fulfill his duties as an independent non-executive director and committee chairman or member in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [1] Group 2 - The board has announced that Mr. Wang Yuwei has been nominated by the board's nomination committee as a candidate for the independent non-executive director of the company's fifth board, pending approval at the temporary shareholders' meeting [1]
弘业期货(03678):王宇伟获提名为独立非执行董事候选人
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-23 11:48
Core Viewpoint - Hongye Futures (03678) announced the resignation of Mr. Huang Dechun as an independent non-executive director after six years, in compliance with Chinese regulatory requirements, and Mr. Wang Yuwei has been nominated as a candidate for the independent non-executive director position, pending approval at the upcoming extraordinary general meeting [1]. Group 1 - Mr. Huang Dechun has served as an independent non-executive director for six years and will resign from his position and related committee roles [1]. - The resignation of Mr. Huang will take effect upon the election of a new independent non-executive director at the company's extraordinary general meeting [1]. - Mr. Wang Yuwei has been nominated by the board's nomination committee as a candidate for the independent non-executive director position, subject to approval by the extraordinary general meeting [1].