Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the EU's anti-dumping duties on imported pork, which are expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures and stabilize prices in the pork market. The anti-dumping tax rates range from 4.9% to 19.8% and will take effect from December 17, 2025 [2][12] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig breeding capacity, with a noted decrease in the number of breeding sows, which is expected to support price recovery in the pork market [2][12] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified seeds will accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key crop varieties and benefiting companies in the seed industry [11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated inspections to ensure the safety of seeds for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons, focusing on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables [11] - The report identifies companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development as beneficiaries in the planting sector, while companies with significant advantages in the seed industry include Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [11] Pig Breeding - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.45%. The total number of breeding sows is 39.9 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [2][12] - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including Li Hua Co., Muyuan Foods, and WH Group in the breeding sector, and Haida Group in the feed sector [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2351.76 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.26% [25] - Wheat: The average price is 2517.30 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.04% [28] - Soybeans: The average price is 4014.74 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14950.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.67% [44] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.62 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. The average price of chicken feed is 3.5 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.29% [51][53]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced the imposition of anti-dumping duties on imported pork and pork products from the EU, effective from December 17, 2025, for a period of five years, with rates ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% [2][12][13] - The anti-dumping investigation began on June 17, 2024, with preliminary findings released on September 5, 2025, indicating dumping practices by EU exporters, leading to the requirement for importers to pay a deposit [13][15] - Following the announcement of the final ruling, the market showed limited bullish expectations, and pork prices remained stable, with a noted increase in import costs prior to the ruling [2][6] Group 2 - Domestic pork prices began to rise in late June 2024, influenced by the anti-dumping investigation, with significant price increases observed in various pork products [4][15] - By September 2025, despite rising import costs, domestic pork prices declined, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among downstream customers, with only certain EU pork products experiencing price increases [4][15] - As of December 17, 2025, average prices for imported pork products showed a slight decline, indicating a stable market despite the new duties [5][16] Group 3 - The imposition of anti-dumping duties is expected to significantly reduce EU pork imports in 2026, while domestic pork supply is anticipated to increase, leading to lower prices for domestic products [6][17] - The EU is projected to remain the largest source of pork imports for China, despite a significant decline in import volumes, with estimates suggesting a drop to 780,000 to 850,000 tons for pork and 1.1 to 1.2 million tons for pork by-products in 2026 [8][19] - The market is likely to shift towards sourcing from lower-cost regions such as North and South America, as domestic prices remain competitive [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced the final ruling on anti-dumping duties on imported pork and pork products from the EU, effective December 17, 2025, in response to significant damage to the domestic industry caused by dumping practices [1] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce will impose anti-dumping duties ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% on EU companies starting December 17, 2025, for a duration of five years [1] - The decision was made following a request from the China Animal Husbandry Association, highlighting the strong demand for protection within the domestic industry [1] Group 2: Impact on Domestic Industry - The ruling is expected to reduce imports of pork and related products from the EU, which may alleviate supply pressure in the domestic pork market, contributing to the stability of the swine industry [1] - Current data indicates that the domestic pork supply is in surplus, with a decrease in imported pork and related products over the past two years [2] Group 3: Import Trends - From January to October, pork imports amounted to approximately 860,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, while the total imports of pork and pork offal reached about 1.86 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year [2] - Overall, the import volume of pork and related products is expected to remain low in 2025, suggesting that the impact of the anti-dumping duties on domestic supply may be limited [2]

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced tariffs on pork imports from the European Union, now set at up to 19.8%, down from preliminary tariffs of up to 62.4% following an investigation into EU's trade practices [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - The final tariff rates for pork imports from the EU will range from 4.9% to 19.8%, effective for five years starting Wednesday [4]. - The initial anti-dumping duties imposed in September ranged from 15.6% to 32.7% for EU companies involved in the investigation, with a maximum of 62.4% for others [3]. Group 2: Trade Context - The EU has a significant trade deficit with China, exceeding 300 billion euros ($348 billion) last year, while being a major exporter of pork and related byproducts to China [2]. - EU pork exports to China reached a peak of 7.4 billion euros ($7.9 billion) in 2020, driven by China's need for imports due to domestic supply issues caused by a swine disease [5]. Group 3: Investigation Findings - China's Commerce Ministry concluded that the EU was dumping pork and pig by-products in China, selling them below production costs, which harmed the domestic pork industry [4]. - The new tariffs will apply to all types of pork products, including fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, pickled, smoked, or salted [4].

Core Points - China has announced lower duties on pork imports and pig by-products from the EU after concluding a year-long anti-dumping investigation [1][2] - The new tariff rates will range from 4.9% to 19.8% and will be effective for five years, starting from Wednesday [2] - Previously, China had imposed temporary anti-dumping tariffs of up to 62.4% on EU pork imports [2] - The EU is the largest pork exporter globally, with China being its single largest buyer, accounting for approximately 13% of the EU's annual pork production exports [3] Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - China has reduced tariffs on European pork imports, with new rates set between 4.9% and 19.8% [2] - These tariffs will be in effect for a duration of five years [2] Background Context - The reduction follows a year-long anti-dumping investigation into European pork imports [1] - Prior to this, China had implemented temporary tariffs as high as 62.4% on EU pork imports [2] Trade Relations - The trade tensions between China and the EU escalated after the EU imposed tariffs of up to 45% on electric vehicles from China [3] - The EU exports about 13% of its annual pork production, with China being the largest market for these exports [3]

中国商务部：国务院关税税则委员会根据商务部的建议作出决定，自2025年12月17日起，对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品征收反倾销税。🗒️反倾销税税率为4.9-18.9%。 https://t.co/CfVgKvwmKd外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国商务部：原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品存在倾销，国内产业受到实质损害，而且倾销与实质损害之间存在因果关系。自2025年9月10日起，进口经营者在进口被调查产品时，应依据本初裁决定所确定的各公司的保证金比率向中华人民共和国海关提供相应的保证金。 https://t.co/W20bRNHZMf ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazil has completed a new round of agricultural product market access negotiations with Argentina and Paraguay, which will expand regional trade cooperation and create new growth opportunities for Brazil's livestock and processing industries [1] Group 1: Market Access and Export Opportunities - Brazil is now permitted to export animal feed ingredients such as egg powder, pork raw materials, and pork by-products to Argentina [1] - The demand for these products is increasing in Argentina's pet food and animal nutrition sectors, indicating a potential growth point for Brazil's agricultural sector [1] Group 2: Domestic Consumption and Export Channels - This agreement is expected to open new export channels for pork cuts that are currently under-consumed domestically in Brazil [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil has completed a new round of agricultural product market access negotiations with Argentina and Paraguay, which will expand regional trade cooperation and create new growth opportunities for its agricultural sector [1] Summary by Categories Market Access and Export Opportunities - Brazil is now allowed to export animal feed egg powder, pork raw materials, and pork by-products to Argentina, addressing the rising demand in Argentina's pet food and animal nutrition industries [1] - The new market access is expected to open new export channels for under-consumed pork parts in Brazil [1] - Brazil has also gained permission to export chia seeds to Paraguay, which will provide additional income sources for small and medium-sized farmers in Brazil's central-western regions [1] Economic Impact - In 2024, Brazil's agricultural product exports to Argentina are projected to exceed $1.5 billion, while exports to Paraguay are estimated at approximately $963 million [1] - Since 2023, Brazil has achieved 426 market access results for agricultural products, indicating a strong push towards diversifying its agricultural export supply chain [1] Regional Trade Cooperation - The opening of new markets is expected to further strengthen agricultural trade cooperation under the framework of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) [1]

Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary findings of anti-dumping investigations on imported pork and related products from the EU, confirming dumping and substantial damage to the domestic industry [1] - Temporary anti-dumping measures will be implemented in the form of a deposit starting from September 10, 2025, requiring importers to provide corresponding deposit rates to customs [1] - In the first seven months of 2025, China imported 1.39 million tons of pork and related products, with nearly 50% coming from the EU, indicating a significant reliance on EU imports [1] Group 2: Market Prices and Trends - The market price of live pigs has dropped to 13.87 yuan/kg as of September 8, 2025, down from 14.22 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025 and 15.98 yuan/kg at the end of 2024 [2] - Pork wholesale prices have also decreased, with a recent price of 20.10 yuan/kg, compared to 20.50 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025 and 22.37 yuan/kg at the end of 2024 [2] - Major listed pig farming companies reported increased sales volumes in August 2025, but both price and profit margins have declined [2] Group 3: Production Capacity and Industry Adjustments - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased by 0.80% in August 2025, indicating a potential adjustment in production capacity [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture has been promoting measures to stabilize the pig industry, including controlling breeding sow numbers and reducing overall supply [3] - Analysts suggest that the anti-dumping measures may lead to a reduction in imported pork supply, potentially driving domestic pork prices higher [3][4] Group 4: Company Performance - De Kang Agriculture reported sales of 813,100 pigs in August 2025, with a revenue of 1.432 billion yuan, but the average selling price decreased by 3.31% from July 2025 [5] - COFCO Joycome turned a profit in the first half of 2025 but faced pressure on profit margins due to declining pig prices, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts [6] - WH Group reported a 10.4% increase in operating profit for the first half of 2025, with a sales growth of 8.9%, marking the best performance since the second half of 2020 [6]

Trade Investigation - China's Ministry of Commerce preliminarily ruled that imported related pork and pork by-products originating from the EU are dumped, causing substantial damage to the domestic industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce determined a causal relationship exists between the dumping and the substantial damage [1] Tariffs and Duties - Starting September 10, 2025, importers will be required to provide corresponding security deposits to China Customs based on the preliminary determined margin rate for each company [1]