Core Viewpoint - The agriculture sector experienced a significant increase of 2.55% on December 22, with Shennong Seed Industry leading the gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3917.36, up by 0.69% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13332.73, up by 1.47% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Shennong Seed Industry (300189) closed at 7.13, with a rise of 20.03%, and a trading volume of 4.0344 million shares, totaling a transaction value of 2.72 billion [1] - Hainan Rubber (601118) closed at 6.08, increasing by 9.95%, with a trading volume of 1.294 million shares, totaling a transaction value of 0.775 billion [1] - Kangnong Seed Industry (920403) closed at 23.99, up by 2.70%, with a trading volume of 53,400 shares, totaling a transaction value of 0.128 billion [1] - Nongfa Seed Industry (600313) closed at 6.74, increasing by 2.28%, with a trading volume of 387,600 shares, totaling a transaction value of 0.26 billion [1] - Sanshi Kangkang (002041) closed at 9.56, up by 1.70%, with a trading volume of 132,500 shares, totaling a transaction value of 0.126 billion [1] - Wanxiang Denong (600371) closed at 9.14, increasing by 1.22%, with a trading volume of 71,100 shares, totaling a transaction value of 0.0647 billion [1] - Yasheng Group (600108) closed at 3.34, up by 1.21%, with a trading volume of 1.5214 million shares, totaling a transaction value of 0.504 billion [1] - Dunhuang Seed Industry (600354) closed at 6.78, increasing by 0.89%, with a trading volume of 271,400 shares, totaling a transaction value of 0.183 billion [1] - Longping High-Tech (000998) closed at 9.47, up by 0.74%, with a trading volume of 131,900 shares, totaling a transaction value of 0.125 billion [1] - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables (603336) closed at 8.61, increasing by 0.47%, with a trading volume of 67,700 shares, totaling a transaction value of 0.05818 billion [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The agriculture sector saw a net inflow of 277 million in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 293 million [1] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 15.6928 million [1]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the EU's anti-dumping duties on imported pork, which are expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures and stabilize prices in the pork market. The anti-dumping tax rates range from 4.9% to 19.8% and will take effect from December 17, 2025 [2][12] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig breeding capacity, with a noted decrease in the number of breeding sows, which is expected to support price recovery in the pork market [2][12] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified seeds will accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key crop varieties and benefiting companies in the seed industry [11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated inspections to ensure the safety of seeds for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons, focusing on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables [11] - The report identifies companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development as beneficiaries in the planting sector, while companies with significant advantages in the seed industry include Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [11] Pig Breeding - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.45%. The total number of breeding sows is 39.9 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [2][12] - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including Li Hua Co., Muyuan Foods, and WH Group in the breeding sector, and Haida Group in the feed sector [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2351.76 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.26% [25] - Wheat: The average price is 2517.30 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.04% [28] - Soybeans: The average price is 4014.74 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14950.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.67% [44] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.62 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. The average price of chicken feed is 3.5 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.29% [51][53]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Denghai Seed Industry (002041) reported its shareholder count as of December 10, 2025, which is 63,472 households [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading agricultural companies, suggesting investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown resilience, with the industry index outperforming the broader market by 0.4 percentage points during the week of December 8-12, 2025 [13]. - The report highlights significant growth in the pet food segment, with online sales increasing by 27.9% year-on-year during October and November 2025, driven by new consumer brands [34][36]. - The livestock industry is facing challenges, with a 5.5% decrease in the number of pigs marketed in November compared to the previous month, raising concerns about animal disease outbreaks [30]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.3%, outperforming the market [13]. - Key stocks such as Zhengbang Technology, Biological Shares, and Luoniushan saw significant gains of 19%, 17%, and 14% respectively [18]. Livestock Industry - In November, the number of pigs marketed decreased by 5.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [30]. - Prices for live pigs increased by 2.1% week-on-week, while the average weight of marketed pigs decreased by 0.2% [30]. - The utilization rate of fattening barns in 17 provinces dropped by 6.5 percentage points [30]. Poultry Industry - Prices for chicken chicks and broilers increased by 1.4% and 0.8% respectively, amid ongoing global avian influenza outbreaks [37][38]. - The price of chicken products rose by 0.6%, driven by supply constraints and increased export orders [37]. Pet Food Industry - Online sales of pet food reached 8.45 billion yuan, with significant growth from brands like Maifudi and Fresh Lang, which saw increases of 36% and 112.6% respectively [34]. - Chewy reported a 30.9% increase in EBITDA, with active customer numbers growing by 4.9% [35]. Feed Industry - Feed raw material prices showed mixed trends, with soybean meal prices increasing by 1.5% while corn prices slightly decreased [41]. - The price of South American white shrimp increased by 4.3% week-on-week [41]. Animal Health - The veterinary drug price index decreased by 0.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [43]. - Merck's imported pet antibiotics were launched on JD Health, marking a significant development in the pet healthcare sector [43].

Market Overview - The planting industry sector increased by 0.22% on December 8, with Shennong Seed Industry leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] Stock Performance - Shennong Seed Industry (300189) closed at 6.15, up 2.33%, with a trading volume of 1.6188 million shares and a transaction value of 999.7 million yuan [1] - Hainan Rubber (601118) closed at 5.92, up 1.02%, with a trading volume of 601,100 shares and a transaction value of 358 million yuan [1] - Hualu Biological (300970) closed at 17.47, up 0.98%, with a trading volume of 22,200 shares and a transaction value of 38.796 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Bowan Technology (600883) at 8.45 (+0.96%), Wanxiang Deno (600371) at 9.26 (+0.87%), and Kangnong Seed Industry (920403) at 21.31 (+0.76%) [1] Capital Flow - The planting industry sector experienced a net outflow of 5.5312 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 17.8913 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors showed interest [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Zhuoyin High-Tech (300087) had a main fund net outflow of 46.7684 million yuan, with retail outflows of 32.6352 million yuan [3] - Beidahuang (600598) saw a main fund net inflow of 14.3215 million yuan, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 2.6344 million yuan [3] - Nuo Puxin (002215) had a main fund net inflow of 10.074 million yuan, but retail funds saw a significant outflow of 11.8112 million yuan [3]

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

Group 1 - The company, Denghai Seeds, reported that as of November 20, the number of its shareholders reached 65,144 households [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the national breeding sow inventory has fallen below 40 million heads as of the end of October, indicating a significant reduction in production capacity. This situation presents a left-side layout opportunity in the pig farming sector [2][12] - The report emphasizes that the pig farming industry is currently in a loss-making state, with average losses per self-bred pig reaching 135.9 yuan and 234.63 yuan for purchased piglets. However, proactive and reactive capacity reduction measures are expected to accelerate, leading to a potential increase in domestic pig prices in the medium to long term [2][12] - The report suggests that the future trend in the pig industry will focus on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with the gradual elimination of backward production capacity and an increase in market share for financially sound and low-cost producers [2][12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to promote the revitalization of the seed industry, emphasizing the importance of enhancing responsibility and focusing on high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The meeting also highlighted the revolutionary role of genetically modified technology in improving yield [11] 2. Market Review - The agricultural sector index decreased by 3.45% during the week from November 17 to November 21, with the pig farming sector experiencing price fluctuations close to cash costs [14][19] 3. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 11.72 yuan/kg, down 1.50% week-on-week. The average price of pig feed was 2.6 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.78% increase [26][51]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Denghai Seed Industry Co., Ltd. has announced the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in Dongfang City, Hainan Province, following a board meeting where the proposal was unanimously approved by all attending directors [1][3]. Group 1 - The board meeting was held on November 21, 2025, with all 9 directors present, and was chaired by Chairwoman Tang Shiwei [1]. - The decision to invest in the new subsidiary received 9 votes in favor, with no votes against or abstentions [1]. - The company will disclose further details regarding the investment in a separate announcement on November 22, 2025 [1].

Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Company Zhaoyi Innovation announced that several directors and senior management personnel plan to reduce their holdings by a total of 249,000 shares, with specific reductions from the vice chairman and general manager, as well as other vice presidents [1] - Company Super Aerospace announced a stock suspension due to its controlling shareholders planning a significant matter that may lead to a change in control [2] - Company Haosai is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws [5] Group 2: Major Contracts and Projects - Company Dajin Heavy Industry's wholly-owned subsidiary signed a contract worth approximately 1.339 billion yuan for a European offshore wind farm project, which represents 35.41% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [3] - Company Ruifeng New Materials plans to increase capital by 200 million yuan in a related party to advance a lithium hexafluorophosphate project [6] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - Company Jushi Chemical received a notice from the CSRC regarding an investigation for suspected violations of information disclosure laws [4] - Company Huosai is also under investigation by the CSRC for similar reasons [5] Group 4: Investment and Acquisitions - Company Gao Neng Environment plans to acquire 45.2% equity in three mining companies [7] - Company Aerospace Electric intends to purchase 32% equity in Shenzhen Aerospace Electric Motor System Co., Ltd. through public bidding [8]