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农林牧渔行业周报第44期:行业亏损持续,继续关注生猪养殖-20251229
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-29 03:27
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The pork industry continues to face losses, with a focus on pig farming opportunities. The average price of live pigs is 11.59 CNY/kg, down 0.46% week-on-week. The total breeding sow inventory is 39.9 million heads, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The industry is experiencing ongoing losses, with self-bred and purchased pig farming losses at 130.11 CNY/head and 162.80 CNY/head respectively. The recent anti-dumping ruling may alleviate domestic pork supply pressure, leading to accelerated capacity reduction [2][12]. Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated winter crop seed supervision checks to ensure seed safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting. The checks focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates of key varieties. Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development [1][11]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.59 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.46% from the previous week. The average price for pig futures is 11,469 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.07% increase. The average weight of pigs post-slaughter is 89.57 kg, with a month-on-month increase of 3.21% in slaughter volume [12][62][65]. Recommended Stocks - For pig farming, recommended stocks include: 1. Livestock sector: Lihua Stock, Muyuan Food, Shuanghui Development, Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Wens Foodstuff 2. Feed sector: Haida Group 3. Animal health sector: Jinhai Biological, Biological Shares, Placo, and Zhongmu Shares [2][12].
农林牧渔行业周报第 43 期:欧盟进口猪肉反倾销落地,继续推荐生猪养殖-20251222
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-22 05:08
Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the EU's anti-dumping duties on imported pork, which are expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures and stabilize prices in the pork market. The anti-dumping tax rates range from 4.9% to 19.8% and will take effect from December 17, 2025 [2][12] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig breeding capacity, with a noted decrease in the number of breeding sows, which is expected to support price recovery in the pork market [2][12] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified seeds will accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key crop varieties and benefiting companies in the seed industry [11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated inspections to ensure the safety of seeds for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons, focusing on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables [11] - The report identifies companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development as beneficiaries in the planting sector, while companies with significant advantages in the seed industry include Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [11] Pig Breeding - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.45%. The total number of breeding sows is 39.9 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [2][12] - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including Li Hua Co., Muyuan Foods, and WH Group in the breeding sector, and Haida Group in the feed sector [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2351.76 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.26% [25] - Wheat: The average price is 2517.30 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.04% [28] - Soybeans: The average price is 4014.74 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14950.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.67% [44] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.62 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. The average price of chicken feed is 3.5 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.29% [51][53]
农林牧渔行业周报第39期:10月能繁降至4000万头以下,推荐生猪养殖-20251123
HUAXI Securities· 2025-11-23 14:56
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the national breeding sow inventory has fallen below 40 million heads as of the end of October, indicating a significant reduction in production capacity. This situation presents a left-side layout opportunity in the pig farming sector [2][12] - The report emphasizes that the pig farming industry is currently in a loss-making state, with average losses per self-bred pig reaching 135.9 yuan and 234.63 yuan for purchased piglets. However, proactive and reactive capacity reduction measures are expected to accelerate, leading to a potential increase in domestic pig prices in the medium to long term [2][12] - The report suggests that the future trend in the pig industry will focus on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with the gradual elimination of backward production capacity and an increase in market share for financially sound and low-cost producers [2][12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to promote the revitalization of the seed industry, emphasizing the importance of enhancing responsibility and focusing on high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The meeting also highlighted the revolutionary role of genetically modified technology in improving yield [11] 2. Market Review - The agricultural sector index decreased by 3.45% during the week from November 17 to November 21, with the pig farming sector experiencing price fluctuations close to cash costs [14][19] 3. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 11.72 yuan/kg, down 1.50% week-on-week. The average price of pig feed was 2.6 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.78% increase [26][51]
农业农村部推行农业电子证照!农牧渔ETF(159275)微涨0.2%!
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-11-05 05:24
Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 0.2% increase in price and a trading volume of 6.91 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 203 million yuan as of November 5 [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Shennong Seed Industry had the highest increase at 6.4%, followed by Luoniushan at 5.24%, and Zhongxing Junye at 3.46%. Conversely, Tianma Technology experienced the largest decline at 1.79%, with Meihua Biological and Tianma Technology also showing declines of 1.92% and 1.57% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement six types of agricultural electronic certificates nationwide starting November 1, 2025, including feed import registration certificates and agricultural transgenic biological safety certificates, transitioning to full electronic certification by 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to Tianfeng Securities, the egg-laying chicken industry is expected to see a significant reduction in domestic breeding volume to 41,200 birds by 2025, indicating a shift from surplus to tight supply. The white chicken industry is also experiencing a contraction in production capacity due to three years of bottoming out and overseas breeding disruptions [2] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to undergo capacity reduction due to low prices and policy guidance, while dairy cow inventory has decreased by 8%, nearing the end of the reduction phase. Beef prices may see unexpected increases [2] - The planting sector is accelerating the commercialization of transgenic corn, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies. The aquaculture feed sector is recovering from a downturn, with leading companies increasing their market share [2] Group 3 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) and its linked funds (Link A: 013471, Link C: 013472) passively track the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, Meihua Biological, New Hope Liuhe, Dabeinong, Bio-Stock, Shennong Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [3]
农林牧渔行业周报第36期:猪价中枢大幅上移,行业显著减亏-20251102
HUAXI Securities· 2025-11-02 09:00
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork price center has significantly risen, leading to a notable reduction in industry losses. The average price of live pigs has increased to 12.51 CNY/kg, a week-on-week rise of 7.20% [2][13] - The agricultural sector is expected to maintain a good development momentum, with grain production projected to be high this year, including summer grain production of 299.48 billion jin and early rice production increasing by 6.8 billion jin, a growth of 1.2% [1][12] - The industry is currently in a supply-demand tug-of-war, with large-scale pig farms adopting strategies to control supply and raise prices, while demand is expected to improve with the arrival of warmer weather and the pickling season [2][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The agricultural sector is implementing key policies to support rural economic development, with a focus on achieving food security and enhancing crop yields through biotechnology [1][12] - Major beneficiaries in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, while in the seed industry, companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for their competitive advantages [1][12] Pig Farming - The pig farming industry is still experiencing losses, but there has been a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous week, with self-breeding farms reporting an average loss of 89.33 CNY per head, down nearly 100 CNY [2][13] - The industry is expected to undergo a process of capacity reduction, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency, leading to the gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [2][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include companies like DeKang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Muyuan Foods [2][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2241.67 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.66% [27][28] - Wheat: The average price is 2482.11 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [30][32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3996.84 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06% [41][44] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 14660 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [46][50] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.6 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.38% [53][55] - The average price of Vitamin E is 50.30 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 14.58% [62][63]
利尔化学(002258)公司点评报告:前三季度归母净利润同比+189% 精草铵膦有望带来发展新机遇
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 08:47
Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 6.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.31%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, up 189.07% [1] - The increase in performance is attributed to cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and rising sales volume and prices of certain products [1] - The company is focusing on strengthening strategic customer partnerships and expanding into new markets, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.48%, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 183.98% [1] - The gross profit margin for the company was 18.42%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.08 percentage points [1] Market Trends - The price of glyphosate is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by increased demand due to the promotion of transgenic technology and the global restriction of paraquat [2] - The global demand for glyphosate is projected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting a rise of at least 45,000 tons by 2026-2028 [2] Product Development - The company is the largest producer of refined glyphosate in China, which is gaining traction due to its stronger herbicidal activity and broader application range [3] - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with multinational corporations to promote refined glyphosate globally, with a new production project already operational [3] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for glyphosate and refined glyphosate, with projected net profits of 506 million yuan, 656 million yuan, and 804 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 135.17%, 29.63%, and 22.52% respectively [3]
农业农村部推进粮油单产提升!农牧渔ETF(159275)涨1%!
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-10-27 03:08
Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 1.0% increase in intraday price and a transaction volume of 5.0954 million yuan, bringing the fund's latest scale to 209 million yuan [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Zhongxing Junye reached the daily limit, while Xiaoming Co. and Shengnong Development saw significant gains of 4.34% and 3.99% respectively. Conversely, Chenguang Biotech experienced a notable decline of 3.19%, with Honghui Fruits and Vegetables and Shennong Seed Industry also showing weaker performance with drops of 1.04% and 0.88% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on October 21 to discuss increasing grain and oil crop yields, emphasizing the promotion of technology integration and high-performance agricultural machinery, particularly supporting the promotion of genetically modified technology to enhance grain yields, which may benefit related seed and planting companies [1] - The core breeding source rate for lean pork in China has surpassed 90%, indicating progress in self-sufficiency in the livestock breeding industry, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods continuing to drive innovation in breeding [1] - According to Citic Securities, the supply in the pig farming industry continues to increase, with rising demand for fat pigs driving up prices, although farming remains unprofitable, potentially accelerating capacity reduction [1] - In the poultry farming sector, frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas create uncertainty in the introduction of grandparent stock chickens, which is favorable for the white feather chicken industry chain prices [1] - The seed industry is focusing on the progress of biological breeding expansion, the promotion of genetically modified corn, and industry mergers and acquisitions [1] - The demand in the animal health industry is expected to bottom out, with new product launches providing growth momentum. The domestic pet market continues to grow rapidly, while exports are only slightly affected by tariff disruptions [1] Group 2 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) and its linked funds (Link A: 013471, Link C: 013472) passively track the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, New Hope, Meihua Biological, Dabeinong, Shengnong Development, Biological Co., Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [2]
高层召开重磅会议!农牧渔板块持续盘整,资金接连加码!机构高呼底部或现
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-10-24 01:25
Group 1 - The agricultural sector is experiencing adjustments, yet funds are increasingly investing in related ETFs, with nearly 2 billion yuan accumulated since September 29 [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on October 21 to enhance grain yield through technology integration and support for genetically modified crops, benefiting related seed and planting companies [1] - In September, listed pig companies reported a decline in sales revenue, totaling 21.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.77%, primarily due to falling pig prices [2] Group 2 - The average selling price of pigs dropped over 30% year-on-year and 5.42% month-on-month, reaching the lowest level since 2022 [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and other authorities are focusing on controlling production capacity and reducing weight, which is expected to accelerate capacity reduction in the fourth quarter [2] - The current valuation of the agricultural sector is relatively low, with the agricultural ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.54, indicating a good investment opportunity [2] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in pork and piglet prices, along with increased slaughter rates, indicate a tightening supply in the pig farming industry [3] - The number of breeding sows is decreasing, and self-breeding operations are facing losses, leading to enhanced capacity reduction motivation [3] - In the livestock sector, beef prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term, while dairy prices remain low, and poultry prices are stable [3] Group 4 - The first agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings in leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, comprising about 40% of the index [4] - The ETF focuses on high-concentration industries, with over 90% of the top ten industries in agriculture, breeding, and feed sectors [4] - Investors can also access the agricultural ETF through linked funds for broader exposure [4]
菊花新网红“丹心”“粉莺”“红蕊”争奇斗艳,未来有望见到“蓝菊花”“荧光菊”
Yang Zi Wan Bao Wang· 2025-10-23 15:38
Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Agricultural University is leveraging genetic engineering and gene editing technologies to develop new chrysanthemum varieties, including potential "blue chrysanthemums" and "fluorescent chrysanthemums" that can glow in the dark [1][7][8] Group 1: New Varieties - The newly developed chrysanthemum varieties include "Nannong Danxin," "Nannong Fenying," and "Nannong Hongrui," which have unique flower shapes and colors, with some individual varieties achieving annual sales of millions of stems [3][5] - "Nannong Danxin" features a peach-pink flower color, while "Nannong Hongrui" has pink petals with a deep pink center, both noted for their excellent ornamental qualities [5][7] Group 2: Research and Development - The research team at Nanjing Agricultural University is addressing key issues in chrysanthemum cultivation, such as unclear mechanisms of important traits, limited commercial varieties, and poor resistance [7] - The team has made breakthroughs in gene editing and whole-genome selection, focusing on creating new varieties that are resistant, have longer blooming periods, and feature unique colors and shapes [7][8] Group 3: Genetic Resources - The Lake Shushu Chrysanthemum Base at Nanjing Agricultural University is home to the largest collection of chrysanthemum genetic resources globally, preserving over 5,300 resources, including wild species and various cultivated types [8] - This extensive genetic resource collection supports the breeding of new chrysanthemum varieties and innovation across the entire industry chain, reinforcing the foundation for a robust chrysanthemum industry in China [8]
农林牧渔行业周报第34期:猪价低位震荡,关注产能去化-20251020
HUAXI Securities· 2025-10-20 07:01
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The planting industry is focusing on enhancing crop yields and ensuring food security through advanced agricultural technologies and policies [1][12] - The pig farming sector is currently experiencing significant losses, with average losses per head reaching 244.70 yuan for self-bred pigs and 375.29 yuan for purchased piglets, indicating a need for capacity reduction [2][13] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in pig prices due to government policies aimed at reducing breeding sow numbers and improving overall industry efficiency [5][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the importance of increasing crop yields and implementing comprehensive solutions tailored to specific regions and crops [1][12] - The report highlights the potential for genetically modified crops to significantly enhance yields and self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][12] - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.14 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.95%, reflecting an oversupply in the market [2][13] - The industry is facing deep losses, prompting a proactive reduction in production capacity, with a target to decrease the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million [5][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and other companies with strong financial positions and cost improvements [5][13] Key Agricultural Products - Corn: The average price is 2276.08 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2450.11 yuan/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 3988.53 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.03% [41] - Cotton: The average price is 14580 yuan/ton, down 0.98% week-on-week [45] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 yuan/kg, down 0.75% week-on-week [52] - Vitamin E is priced at 43.10 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease of 12.58% [52]