证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 猪肉10 月能繁降至 4000 万头以下，推荐生猪养殖 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 39 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：据农业农村部，11 月 13 日，农业农村部在湖南 长沙召开全国推进种业振兴行动现场会，深入学习贯彻党的二 十届四中全会和习近平总书记重要指示精神，总结种业振兴行 动进展成效，部署"十五五"重点工作。农业农村部党组成 员、副部长张兴旺出席会议并讲话。会议强调，增强深入实施 种业振兴行动责任感，集中力量破难题、补短板、强优势、控 风险，推进"十五五"期间种业高质量发展，加快实现种业科 技自立自强、种源自主可控。要加快种质资源精准鉴定，大力 推进种质资源改良计划；编制实施"十五五"现代种业提升工 程规划，培育生产急需突破性品种；加强阵型企业梯度培育， 强化其创新主体地位；高标准建设国家种业基地，提升现代化 水平；加强品种全链条监管，严格保护种业知识产权；强化农 业生物安全科技安全措施，守牢种业安全底线。在粮食安全背 景下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作 ...

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 0.2% increase in price and a trading volume of 6.91 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 203 million yuan as of November 5 [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Shennong Seed Industry had the highest increase at 6.4%, followed by Luoniushan at 5.24%, and Zhongxing Junye at 3.46%. Conversely, Tianma Technology experienced the largest decline at 1.79%, with Meihua Biological and Tianma Technology also showing declines of 1.92% and 1.57% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement six types of agricultural electronic certificates nationwide starting November 1, 2025, including feed import registration certificates and agricultural transgenic biological safety certificates, transitioning to full electronic certification by 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to Tianfeng Securities, the egg-laying chicken industry is expected to see a significant reduction in domestic breeding volume to 41,200 birds by 2025, indicating a shift from surplus to tight supply. The white chicken industry is also experiencing a contraction in production capacity due to three years of bottoming out and overseas breeding disruptions [2] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to undergo capacity reduction due to low prices and policy guidance, while dairy cow inventory has decreased by 8%, nearing the end of the reduction phase. Beef prices may see unexpected increases [2] - The planting sector is accelerating the commercialization of transgenic corn, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies. The aquaculture feed sector is recovering from a downturn, with leading companies increasing their market share [2] Group 3 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) and its linked funds (Link A: 013471, Link C: 013472) passively track the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, Meihua Biological, New Hope Liuhe, Dabeinong, Bio-Stock, Shennong Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork price center has significantly risen, leading to a notable reduction in industry losses. The average price of live pigs has increased to 12.51 CNY/kg, a week-on-week rise of 7.20% [2][13] - The agricultural sector is expected to maintain a good development momentum, with grain production projected to be high this year, including summer grain production of 299.48 billion jin and early rice production increasing by 6.8 billion jin, a growth of 1.2% [1][12] - The industry is currently in a supply-demand tug-of-war, with large-scale pig farms adopting strategies to control supply and raise prices, while demand is expected to improve with the arrival of warmer weather and the pickling season [2][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The agricultural sector is implementing key policies to support rural economic development, with a focus on achieving food security and enhancing crop yields through biotechnology [1][12] - Major beneficiaries in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, while in the seed industry, companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for their competitive advantages [1][12] Pig Farming - The pig farming industry is still experiencing losses, but there has been a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous week, with self-breeding farms reporting an average loss of 89.33 CNY per head, down nearly 100 CNY [2][13] - The industry is expected to undergo a process of capacity reduction, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency, leading to the gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [2][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include companies like DeKang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Muyuan Foods [2][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2241.67 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.66% [27][28] - Wheat: The average price is 2482.11 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [30][32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3996.84 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06% [41][44] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 14660 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [46][50] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.6 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.38% [53][55] - The average price of Vitamin E is 50.30 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 14.58% [62][63]

Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 6.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.31%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, up 189.07% [1] - The increase in performance is attributed to cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and rising sales volume and prices of certain products [1] - The company is focusing on strengthening strategic customer partnerships and expanding into new markets, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.48%, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 183.98% [1] - The gross profit margin for the company was 18.42%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.08 percentage points [1] Market Trends - The price of glyphosate is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by increased demand due to the promotion of transgenic technology and the global restriction of paraquat [2] - The global demand for glyphosate is projected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting a rise of at least 45,000 tons by 2026-2028 [2] Product Development - The company is the largest producer of refined glyphosate in China, which is gaining traction due to its stronger herbicidal activity and broader application range [3] - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with multinational corporations to promote refined glyphosate globally, with a new production project already operational [3] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for glyphosate and refined glyphosate, with projected net profits of 506 million yuan, 656 million yuan, and 804 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 135.17%, 29.63%, and 22.52% respectively [3]

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 1.0% increase in intraday price and a transaction volume of 5.0954 million yuan, bringing the fund's latest scale to 209 million yuan [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Zhongxing Junye reached the daily limit, while Xiaoming Co. and Shengnong Development saw significant gains of 4.34% and 3.99% respectively. Conversely, Chenguang Biotech experienced a notable decline of 3.19%, with Honghui Fruits and Vegetables and Shennong Seed Industry also showing weaker performance with drops of 1.04% and 0.88% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on October 21 to discuss increasing grain and oil crop yields, emphasizing the promotion of technology integration and high-performance agricultural machinery, particularly supporting the promotion of genetically modified technology to enhance grain yields, which may benefit related seed and planting companies [1] - The core breeding source rate for lean pork in China has surpassed 90%, indicating progress in self-sufficiency in the livestock breeding industry, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods continuing to drive innovation in breeding [1] - According to Citic Securities, the supply in the pig farming industry continues to increase, with rising demand for fat pigs driving up prices, although farming remains unprofitable, potentially accelerating capacity reduction [1] - In the poultry farming sector, frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas create uncertainty in the introduction of grandparent stock chickens, which is favorable for the white feather chicken industry chain prices [1] - The seed industry is focusing on the progress of biological breeding expansion, the promotion of genetically modified corn, and industry mergers and acquisitions [1] - The demand in the animal health industry is expected to bottom out, with new product launches providing growth momentum. The domestic pet market continues to grow rapidly, while exports are only slightly affected by tariff disruptions [1] Group 2 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) and its linked funds (Link A: 013471, Link C: 013472) passively track the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, New Hope, Meihua Biological, Dabeinong, Shengnong Development, Biological Co., Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [2]

Group 1 - The agricultural sector is experiencing adjustments, yet funds are increasingly investing in related ETFs, with nearly 2 billion yuan accumulated since September 29 [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on October 21 to enhance grain yield through technology integration and support for genetically modified crops, benefiting related seed and planting companies [1] - In September, listed pig companies reported a decline in sales revenue, totaling 21.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.77%, primarily due to falling pig prices [2] Group 2 - The average selling price of pigs dropped over 30% year-on-year and 5.42% month-on-month, reaching the lowest level since 2022 [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and other authorities are focusing on controlling production capacity and reducing weight, which is expected to accelerate capacity reduction in the fourth quarter [2] - The current valuation of the agricultural sector is relatively low, with the agricultural ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.54, indicating a good investment opportunity [2] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in pork and piglet prices, along with increased slaughter rates, indicate a tightening supply in the pig farming industry [3] - The number of breeding sows is decreasing, and self-breeding operations are facing losses, leading to enhanced capacity reduction motivation [3] - In the livestock sector, beef prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term, while dairy prices remain low, and poultry prices are stable [3] Group 4 - The first agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings in leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, comprising about 40% of the index [4] - The ETF focuses on high-concentration industries, with over 90% of the top ten industries in agriculture, breeding, and feed sectors [4] - Investors can also access the agricultural ETF through linked funds for broader exposure [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Agricultural University is leveraging genetic engineering and gene editing technologies to develop new chrysanthemum varieties, including potential "blue chrysanthemums" and "fluorescent chrysanthemums" that can glow in the dark [1][7][8] Group 1: New Varieties - The newly developed chrysanthemum varieties include "Nannong Danxin," "Nannong Fenying," and "Nannong Hongrui," which have unique flower shapes and colors, with some individual varieties achieving annual sales of millions of stems [3][5] - "Nannong Danxin" features a peach-pink flower color, while "Nannong Hongrui" has pink petals with a deep pink center, both noted for their excellent ornamental qualities [5][7] Group 2: Research and Development - The research team at Nanjing Agricultural University is addressing key issues in chrysanthemum cultivation, such as unclear mechanisms of important traits, limited commercial varieties, and poor resistance [7] - The team has made breakthroughs in gene editing and whole-genome selection, focusing on creating new varieties that are resistant, have longer blooming periods, and feature unique colors and shapes [7][8] Group 3: Genetic Resources - The Lake Shushu Chrysanthemum Base at Nanjing Agricultural University is home to the largest collection of chrysanthemum genetic resources globally, preserving over 5,300 resources, including wild species and various cultivated types [8] - This extensive genetic resource collection supports the breeding of new chrysanthemum varieties and innovation across the entire industry chain, reinforcing the foundation for a robust chrysanthemum industry in China [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The planting industry is focusing on enhancing crop yields and ensuring food security through advanced agricultural technologies and policies [1][12] - The pig farming sector is currently experiencing significant losses, with average losses per head reaching 244.70 yuan for self-bred pigs and 375.29 yuan for purchased piglets, indicating a need for capacity reduction [2][13] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in pig prices due to government policies aimed at reducing breeding sow numbers and improving overall industry efficiency [5][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the importance of increasing crop yields and implementing comprehensive solutions tailored to specific regions and crops [1][12] - The report highlights the potential for genetically modified crops to significantly enhance yields and self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][12] - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.14 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.95%, reflecting an oversupply in the market [2][13] - The industry is facing deep losses, prompting a proactive reduction in production capacity, with a target to decrease the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million [5][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and other companies with strong financial positions and cost improvements [5][13] Key Agricultural Products - Corn: The average price is 2276.08 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2450.11 yuan/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 3988.53 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.03% [41] - Cotton: The average price is 14580 yuan/ton, down 0.98% week-on-week [45] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 yuan/kg, down 0.75% week-on-week [52] - Vitamin E is priced at 43.10 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease of 12.58% [52]

Industry Insights - The 2025 World Agricultural Technology Innovation Conference recently opened in Pinggu, Beijing, focusing on themes such as South-South cooperation, facility agriculture, controllable agriculture, and smart breeding, discussing the construction of resilient food supply systems and exploring challenges and development paths in the agricultural sector [1] - A market research company in the U.S. predicts that if China does not return to the U.S. market by mid-November, the potential loss of soybean orders for the U.S. could reach 14 to 16 million tons [1] - Open-source securities indicate that trade frictions are resurfacing, benefiting the agricultural sector through tariff countermeasures and food security logic, with the sector currently at a relatively low level [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and japonica rice have shown significant recovery, with corn and japonica rice prices increasing by 8.54% and 5.61% respectively as of October 11, 2025 [1] - Huaxi Securities emphasizes that in the context of food security, transgenic technology has a revolutionary role in increasing yield, predicting that the commercialization process of transgenic crops will continue to accelerate, fundamentally improving self-sufficiency rates of key varieties [1] Company Developments - Longping High-Tech, a leading domestic modern seed company, produces hybrid rice seeds, corn seeds, vegetable seeds, and wheat seeds, and has formed a strategic partnership with Alibaba Cloud to advance agricultural applications [2] - Dabeinong's subsidiary, Beijing Dabeinong Biotechnology, received planting permission for its transgenic soybean variety "DBN9004" in April 2025, while its joint venture, Nongxin Group, has integrated the DeepSeek-V2 version into its AaaS platform, with plans for a full launch of DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1 based intelligent services in early 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pork prices, with the average price of live pigs at 12.64 CNY/kg, down 3.05% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus in the market. However, upcoming festivals are expected to boost consumption and potentially stabilize prices [2][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yield through advanced agricultural practices and technology, particularly in the context of food security and the promotion of genetically modified crops [1][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on enhancing grain yields through a comprehensive approach tailored to specific crops and regions. This includes promoting high-performance agricultural machinery and addressing storage issues in different regions [1][12] - Companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these initiatives, along with seed companies such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Swine Farming - The current average price of live pigs is 12.64 CNY/kg, reflecting a significant decrease due to oversupply. A meeting was held to discuss reducing the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million to stabilize prices [2][13] - The report suggests that the swine industry will focus on quality improvement and efficiency, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity. Companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs are highlighted as key players to watch [2][5][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2360.47 CNY/ton, down 0.10% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2434.39 CNY/ton, up 0.23% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 4050.42 CNY/ton, up 0.17% week-on-week [38] - Cotton: The average price is 15090.00 CNY/ton, down 0.89% week-on-week [46] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.68 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. Vitamin E prices have decreased by 7.84% to 51.70 CNY/kg [52][63]