Investment Rating - The report provides a "C" investment rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a cautious outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The PX supply-demand balance is expected to tighten in the first half of 2026, leading to a recovery in market conditions. The operating rate is projected to improve from 78% in 2023 to over 85% [3][11]. - The PTA industry has reached the end of its capital expenditure cycle, with no new capacity expected until mid-2027. The current industry is entering a phase of coordinated production cuts, which may reduce PX demand [11][12]. - The downstream polyester sector is gradually tightening, with expectations for improved market conditions. Recommended companies include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [16]. Summary by Sections PX Supply and Demand - PX supply-demand is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026, with a significant recovery in market conditions anticipated. The operating rate is projected to rise from 78% in 2023 to over 85% [3][11]. - There are no large-scale new capacity plans in the short term, and maintenance seasons for domestic refineries may create temporary supply gaps [3]. PTA Industry Overview - The PTA industry's capacity increased from 46.08 million tons in 2018 to 86.02 million tons in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 11%. The current capacity accounts for about 75% of global PTA capacity [11]. - The PTA industry is expected to enter a phase of coordinated production cuts, which may weaken PX demand [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [16]. - The upstream exploration and development sector remains highly prosperous, with expectations for continued high capital expenditure in offshore services, recommending companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting a recovery in PX supply-demand dynamics and PTA profitability restoration [3][5]. Core Insights - The PX market is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with a recovery in operating rates from 78% in 2023 to over 85% as downstream PTA production ramps up in 2024-2025. This is anticipated to lead to a significant improvement in market conditions [5][6]. - PTA production capacity in China is projected to increase from 46.08 million tons in 2018 to 86.02 million tons by 2024, accounting for 75% of global capacity. The report indicates that there will be no new capacity additions post-2026, leading to a collaborative reduction phase in the industry [13][19]. - The upstream oil sector is experiencing rising oil prices, with Brent crude futures closing at $60.64 per barrel, reflecting a 0.28% increase week-on-week. This is expected to support the profitability of refining companies [5][26]. - The polyester sector is showing mixed performance, with PTA profitability increasing while polyester filament profits are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor demand changes closely [19]. Summary by Sections PX Market - PX supply-demand is tightening, with a forecasted increase in operating rates to over 85% due to no new capacity additions and seasonal maintenance in early 2026 [5][6]. - The report notes that the PX price has risen to $878.87 per ton, a week-on-week increase of 5.61% [19]. PTA Market - PTA production capacity is expected to reach 71.14 million tons in 2024, a 13% year-on-year increase. The report anticipates a collaborative reduction phase starting in 2026 due to no new capacity additions [13][19]. - PTA prices have shifted from a downward trend to an upward trend, with current prices in East China averaging 4,936 RMB per ton, reflecting a 6.94% increase week-on-week [19]. Upstream Oil Sector - Brent crude oil prices have increased, with a weekly average price of $61.91 per barrel, indicating a positive trend for upstream oil companies [5][26]. - The report highlights a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with 545 rigs reported, a decrease of 44 year-on-year, suggesting a potential impact on future oil supply [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in profitability [19].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The domestic key refining project price difference is 2557.23 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +11.87 CNY/ton (+0.47%), while the international key refining project price difference is 1254.57 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of -43.45 CNY/ton (-3.35%) [2][3] - Brent crude oil's average price for the week ending December 26, 2025, is 61.73 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +2.74% [2][3] - The refining sector is affected by geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela and Russia, which have led to supply concerns and fluctuations in oil prices [2][15] - The chemical sector is experiencing weak demand, leading to a downward shift in chemical product prices [2][49] - Polyester production has seen a significant increase in sales volume, with downstream demand improving, which has positively impacted upstream prices [2][55] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude prices at 60.64 and 56.74 USD/barrel respectively, showing slight increases [2][15] - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6566.86, 7622.14, and 5716.07 CNY/ton respectively [2][15] Chemical Sector - The report notes a decline in demand for chemical products, with prices for polyethylene and EVA showing downward trends [2][55] - The average price for LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE is reported as 9000.00, 6329.29, and 8000.00 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding price differences from crude oil [2][55] Polyester & Nylon Sector - The polyester sector has seen a significant increase in production and sales, with a notable reduction in inventory levels and a slight increase in prices for polyester filament yarn [2][55] - The report indicates that the nylon filament prices remain stable, with slight improvements in price differences [2][55] Stock Performance - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Hengli Petrochemical (+11.01%) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (+12.12%) over the past week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a weekly analysis of the large refining and chemical industry, covering data on key domestic and foreign refining projects, the polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, as well as performance and profit forecasts of relevant listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Price and Market Performance**: The report tracks the stock price changes of six major private refining and chemical companies in the past week, month, three - month, and one - year periods. For example, from 2025/12/26, Rongsheng Petrochemical had a weekly increase of 12.1%, a monthly increase of 16.4%, a three - month increase of 16.9%, and a one - year increase of 21.6% [8]. - **Profit Forecast**: It provides profit forecasts for these six companies from 2024 to 2027, including归母净利润, PE, and PB. For instance, Hengli Petrochemical's 2024A归母净利润 was 7044 million yuan, and it is expected to reach 10657 million yuan in 2027E [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) showed an increase this week. The average price of Brent was 61.7 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 2.7%. The average price of WTI was 57.7 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. The spread of domestic refining projects was 2640.2 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. The spread of foreign refining projects was 1254.1 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5% [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: - **Upstream Products**: The average price of PX was 903.0 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 64.4 dollars/ton. The average price of MEG was 3616.4 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19.3 yuan/ton. The average price of PTA was 4990.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 345.0 yuan/ton [10]. - **Polyester Filament**: The average prices of POY, FDY, and DTY increased, but their profits decreased. For example, the average price of POY was 6385.7 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 92.9 yuan/ton, but the profit per ton decreased by 130.9 yuan. The inventory of FDY decreased by 8.2 days, and the inventory of DTY decreased by 3.0 days [10]. - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The average price of polyester short fiber was 6404.3 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 137.1 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton decreased by 101.5 yuan. The average price of polyester bottle chip was 5900.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 224.3 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton decreased by 42.7 yuan [10]. - **Downstream Products**: The inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 0.2 days, and the operating rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points [10]. - **Refining Sector**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China and the US decreased this week, while in Europe, the prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene showed a mixed trend, and in Singapore, the prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene decreased [10]. - **Chemical Sector**: The prices and spreads of various chemical products changed. For example, the price of EVA photovoltaic material decreased by 339 yuan/ton, and the price of LLDPE decreased by 197 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: The report may analyze the trends of the big refining index and the spreads of key domestic and foreign refining projects, but specific analysis content is not provided [12]. - **Polyester Sector**: It includes the price, profit, inventory, and operating rate of various products in the polyester industry chain, as well as the relationship between polyester filament and downstream weaving operating rates [12]. - **Refining Sector**: It analyzes the price and spread changes of refined oil products in different regions such as China, the US, Europe, and Singapore [12]. - **Chemical Sector**: It presents the price and spread changes of various chemical products [12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the petrochemical sector, with various indices showing significant weekly gains, particularly the polyester index which increased by 8.52% [9]. Core Insights - Oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, with WTI closing at $56.74 and Brent at $63.73 as of December 26, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $0.59 and $2.30 respectively [15][17]. - The report highlights that the U.S. is focusing on economic measures against Venezuela's oil exports, while tensions in the Gulf region, particularly with Saudi airstrikes in Yemen, contribute to market volatility [17]. - The report notes that the overall oil market remains influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of a potential peace agreement impacting market sentiment [17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The petrochemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.18% [9]. - The oil and gas resource index rose by 3.35%, while the refining and chemical index saw a 4.16% increase [9]. Petrochemical Subsector Overview - **Oil**: The report indicates a mixed outlook with oil prices fluctuating due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. U.S. crude oil production is reported at 13.84 million barrels per day, with a decrease in net imports [15]. - **Refining**: The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 663.63 yuan/ton, showing an increase of 49.75 yuan/ton from the previous period [15]. - **Polyester**: The report notes that polyester production is facing challenges with profitability, as the average profit for polyester POY150D was reported at -135.19 yuan/ton [15]. - **Olefins**: Ethylene prices remained stable at 6172 yuan/ton, while propylene prices decreased by 240 yuan/ton to 5715 yuan/ton [15]. Price Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of various petrochemical product prices, indicating significant fluctuations in margins and costs across different segments [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in domestic PX (para-xylene) and PTA (purified terephthalic acid) futures prices is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including global energy restructuring, optimized supply capacity, and ongoing industrial policy support [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - On December 26, PX futures rose by 4% to a peak of 7618 yuan/ton, while PTA futures surpassed 5300 yuan/ton, both reaching nearly one-year highs [1]. - The PX industry chain is becoming a significant profit breakthrough point in the refining sector, with expectations of high profitability due to limited supply growth and recovering demand [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global PX capacity is expected to see no new additions in 2024 and 2025, with new projects planned for late 2026, creating a supply gap in the first half of 2026 [4]. - The current PX industry capacity utilization rate has exceeded 85%, indicating limited supply elasticity [4]. - The textile and apparel sectors in China and the U.S. may experience a replenishment wave in 2026, further driving demand for PX and its downstream products [4]. Group 3: Industry Structure - The domestic PX and PTA industries exhibit significant concentration, with the top three PX producers accounting for 54% of total capacity by the end of 2025 [6]. - Major PX producers include Rongsheng Petrochemical (1040 million tons), Sinopec (750 million tons), and PetroChina (630 million tons) [7]. - The PTA industry also shows high concentration, with the top three companies holding 52% of total capacity, led by Yisheng Petrochemical (2150 million tons) [8]. Group 4: Market Performance - Leading companies in the PX and PTA sectors have seen their stock prices rise significantly, with Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical experiencing increases of 17.26%, 21.63%, and 15.42% respectively over the past two weeks [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The supply-demand landscape for PX and PTA is expected to continue optimizing into 2026, with no new PTA capacity and a focus on existing competition [10]. - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to lead to a contraction in supply, further improving the industry structure [10]. - Companies with integrated "crude oil-aromatic-PTA-polyester" supply chains, such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, are positioned to benefit significantly from the improving industry cycle [10].

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.2% compared to the previous trading day, with Baomo Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89, up 0.54% [1] Stock Performance - Baomo Co., Ltd. (002476) closed at 6.71, up 5.17% with a trading volume of 525,800 shares and a transaction value of 346 million yuan [1] - Wanbangda (300055) closed at 7.75, up 4.31% with a trading volume of 183,100 shares and a transaction value of 142 million yuan [1] - Dongfang Shenghong (000301) closed at 10.72, up 3.08% with a trading volume of 296,200 shares and a transaction value of 315 million yuan [1] - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) closed at 21.27, up 2.56% with a trading volume of 353,300 shares and a transaction value of 745 million yuan [1] - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) closed at 9.92, up 2.16% with a trading volume of 447,300 shares and a transaction value of 437 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 344 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 354 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) had a net outflow of 46.92 million yuan from institutional investors, with a 6.30% share of the total capital flow [3] - Wanbangda (300055) saw a net inflow of 21.46 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 15.15% of the total capital flow [3] - Unified Co., Ltd. (600506) had a net inflow of 14.11 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 6.25% of the total capital flow [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, surpassing the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 4.6%. This appreciation positively impacts the chemical industry, particularly oil-head refining enterprises, by reducing import costs and enhancing profit margins [1][2]. Company Analysis - Rongsheng Petrochemical, a major player in the oil-head refining sector, has a high sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations due to its reliance on imported crude oil, which constitutes approximately 50%-90% of its total costs. The company benefits from a "more variety, less oil" strategy to increase the proportion of high-value-added products, leading to improved profit margins with RMB appreciation [1][2]. - The company operates the world's largest integrated refining project with a capacity of 40 million tons per year and has significant production capacities for PX and PTA, positioning it as a leader in the chemical sector [2]. - If the crude oil procurement price is estimated at $60 per barrel, a 3% appreciation in the RMB could save Rongsheng Petrochemical approximately 1 billion RMB in costs per quarter, potentially increasing annual profits by up to 4 billion RMB [2]. Industry Overview - The domestic demand for chemical raw materials is steadily recovering, with prices for downstream products like PX and PTA continuing to rise, creating a favorable environment characterized by "declining costs and product premiums" [2]. - Major refining enterprises are seen as having significant price elasticity, with RMB appreciation further amplifying their profit potential, making them attractive low-position assets for incremental capital [2]. - The recent increase in trading activity in the A-share market, coupled with RMB appreciation, has led to accelerated foreign investment in core assets, supporting the upward price trends of major oil-head refining companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hengyi Petrochemical [2].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, with a cumulative increase of 4.6% this year [1] - The onshore RMB has also approached the 7.0 mark, with a year-to-date appreciation of 4% [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to accelerate the conversion of corporate earnings held overseas, further driving appreciation and hot money inflow [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry, particularly oil-head refining enterprises, will benefit significantly from the RMB appreciation due to their high reliance on imported raw materials [3] - Oil-head refining is the mainstream route in the chemical industry, with crude oil accounting for 50%-90% of total costs, making it highly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations [4] - For example, Rongsheng Petrochemical, a leading private refining enterprise, could save 1 billion RMB in costs for every 3% appreciation of the RMB, potentially increasing annual profits by 4 billion RMB [4] Group 3 - Coal-head route enterprises like Baofeng Energy have lower sensitivity to exchange rate changes due to their high self-sufficiency in raw materials, primarily using domestic coal [5] - Baofeng Energy's cost structure is less affected by RMB appreciation, as it relies mainly on domestic coal, making the impact on profits negligible [5] Group 4 - Gas-head route enterprises, such as Satellite Chemical, have moderate sensitivity to exchange rate changes, depending on their import ratios of ethane and propane [6] - Satellite Chemical's core project relies on imported ethane, and a 3% appreciation of the RMB could save several million to over 100 million RMB in raw material costs [6] Group 5 - The current domestic chemical raw material demand is steadily recovering, with downstream products like PX and PTA experiencing price increases, creating a dual benefit of cost reduction and product premium for refining leaders [7] - The combination of an A-share bull market and RMB appreciation is attracting foreign investment into core assets, with leading companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical seeing significant stock price increases [7]

Group 1 - The refining and trading sector experienced a slight decline of 0.03% on December 25, with Daqing Huake leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62, up 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41, up 0.33% [1] - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included Baomo Co., which rose by 4.25% to a closing price of 6.38, and Hengyi Petrochemical, which increased by 3.96% to 9.71 [1] Group 2 - Daqing Huake saw a significant decline of 6.37%, closing at 20.30, with a trading volume of 155,500 shares and a transaction value of 319 million [2] - The overall net capital outflow from the refining and trading sector was 440 million, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 253 million [2] - The capital flow analysis indicated that Hengli Petrochemical had a net outflow of 29.23 million from institutional investors, while Baomo Co. had a net inflow of 6.43 million [3]