行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 07 月 21 日 受油价下跌拖累，2025Q2 石化行 业景气下行，关注未来中下游景气 修复 看好 ——石油化工 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 表 1：主要石油化工品价格走势 | | 价格 | 环比（%） | 同比（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025Q2 | 2025Q1 | 2024Q2 | | Brent 原油（美元/桶） | 66.7 | -11.0% | -21.5% | | WTI 原油（美元/桶） | 63.8 | -10.8% | -20.8% | | NYMEX 天然气（美元/百万英热） ...

聚酯瓶片：本轮扩产周期进入尾声，行业自律有望促 进盈利能力向上修复 化学原料 2025 年 07 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 化学原料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025H1 制冷剂企业业绩断层增长， 向上趋势仍在延续—氟化工行业周 报》-2025.7.20 《制冷剂报价坚挺上行，趋势延续— 氟化工行业周报》-2025.7.6 《制冷剂商业模型逐渐定型，行情演 绎不断验证，向上趋势延续—氟化工 行业周报》-2025.6.22 ——化工"反内卷"系列报告（二） | 金益腾（分析师） | 龚道琳（分析师） | 蒋跨跃（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | gongdaolin@kysec.cn | jiangkuayue@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790522010001 | 证书编号：S0790523120001 | 聚酯瓶片需求稳健，全球供需错配促发上一轮 ...

2025 年 07 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 [Table_Title] 反内卷有望带动化工景气反转 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/07/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 5.4% | 12.0% | 22.8% | | 沪深 300 | 4.7% | 7.6% | 15.3% | 相关报告 《基础化工行业周报：丁二烯、涤纶长丝价格上涨， 磷矿石价值有望重估（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊， 董伯骏》——2025-05-18 《铬盐行业点评之五：金属铬价格持续上涨，铬盐 产业链受益（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏， 陈云》——2025-04-22 《基础化工行业周报：金属铬、原油、双酚 A 价格 上涨，重视芭田股份磷矿产能扩张（推荐）*基础 化工*李永磊，董伯骏》——2025-04-20 《铬盐行业点评之四：新疆沈宏进入破产重整，铬 盐行业集中度有望提升（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊， 董伯骏，陈云》——2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see the exit of over 20-year-old outdated capacities, which could accelerate the recovery of the refining sector. The EIA has adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to an average of $69 and $58 per barrel, respectively [4][10]. - Demand for oil is projected to increase by 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day this year, with a notable decline in demand in Q2 2025. The IEA and OPEC have also provided similar forecasts for global oil demand growth [4][15]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the polyester sector, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the gradual exit of outdated capacities [21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $69.28 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. The WTI price also fell by 1.62% to $67.34 per barrel [25]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 544, although this represents a year-on-year decrease of 42 rigs [39]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $14.50 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $21.14 per barrel [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust downward, and the competitive landscape for leading refining companies is expected to benefit from the exit of overseas refineries and low domestic refining rates [21]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability is on the rise, while profits from polyester filament yarn have declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes [4][21]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as the industry is expected to gradually improve [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and China Petroleum, as well as upstream exploration and production companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation [21].

相关研究报告 基础化工 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 20 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 基础化工 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 《国内反内卷持续发酵，海外多家化 工企业产能关停 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.13 《BOPET 膜：性能优良、国内产需高 增，行业自律有望助力格局优化、盈 利改善—化工"反内卷"系列报告 （一）》-2025.7.9 《反内卷浪潮席卷而来，新一轮供给 侧改革呼之欲出 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.6 反内卷政策陆续出台，石化行业稳增长方案有望推动 化工行业供给侧竞争格局优化 ——行业周报 | 金益腾（分析师） | 龚道琳（分析师） | 蒋跨跃（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | gongdaolin@kysec.cn | jiangkuayue@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790522010001 | 证书编号：S0790523120 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is expected to experience improved profit margins for refining companies due to a decline in oil prices and enhanced cost optimization, particularly for private refining enterprises like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - The oil price is projected to decline in the first half of 2025, leading to a decrease in the price center, which will positively impact the price spread of chemical products, especially olefins [1][2]. - The theoretical net profit for Zhejiang Petrochemical is estimated at approximately 53 billion, 107 billion, and 138 billion yuan under oil prices of 80, 70, and 60 USD respectively, while Hengli Petrochemical's theoretical net profit is estimated at 16 billion, 45 billion, and 70 billion yuan under the same conditions [1][2]. - The refining industry is entering a phase of stock competition due to a slowdown in supply-side growth, with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) controlling crude oil processing capacity to remain under 1 billion tons by 2025 [3]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - The demand for chemical products is expected to maintain a steady but weak recovery, with an average annual growth rate of about 3%-4% for domestic chemical oil demand from 2025 to 2026 [4]. - The consumption of polyethylene is projected to grow at a rate of 1-4% from 2025 to 2030, while the aromatics sector may see a recovery due to downstream capacity expansion [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Investment Value - The private refining sector is expected to benefit from cost optimization due to falling coal prices, with estimated reductions in coal costs for Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical of approximately 11.74 million and 8.24 million yuan respectively [2]. - The overall debt ratio of companies is expected to decrease by 5%, leading to a financial cost optimization of about 9-12 million yuan [5]. - The long-term investment value of private refining companies is highlighted, as their current valuation is believed to be lower than the intrinsic value of their refining assets [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The industry is recommended to focus on private refining leaders with significant scale advantages and a diversified product portfolio, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester and refining sectors [2][14]. Core Insights - The EIA has revised down its natural gas price forecasts due to rising inventories, with the third-quarter price expected at $3.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and the fourth quarter at $3.99 MMBtu [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas inventories reached 30,060 billion cubic feet, significantly above the five-year average, indicating a clear accumulation trend [6]. - Oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude futures closing at $70.36 per barrel, reflecting a 3.02% increase week-over-week [18]. - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in oil prices due to widening supply-demand dynamics, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [2][18]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - The EIA has lowered its natural gas price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025, with average prices expected at $3.67 and $4.41 per MMBtu for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas production reached 11.68 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day [6]. - Solar power is increasingly substituting natural gas in electricity generation, with a projected 3% decline in gas-fired generation in 2025 [11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI prices rose to $68.45 per barrel, with weekly average prices showing gains of 2.34% and 2.44%, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 229 million barrels [19]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 537, down 2 from the previous week and 47 year-on-year [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $13.70 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $0.31 per barrel week-over-week [50]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust downward, with domestic refining product margins still at low levels [48]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation in the polyester sector, with improved profitability anticipated as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [14]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [14]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and production sector, particularly offshore oil service firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering, which are projected to see performance improvements [14].

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：长丝价格承压，产销上升 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月13日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2529元/吨，环比-106元/吨（环比-4%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1070元/吨，环比-58元/吨（环比-5%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6779/6986/8075元/吨，环比分别-211/-264/-193元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为26/-102/24元/吨，环比分别-37/-73/-26元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 24.2/24.7/29.4天，环比分别+2.5/+2.3/+0.8天，长丝开工率为91.9%，环比+0.7pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为56.2%，环比-1.9pct，织造企业 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The BOPET film industry is experiencing high domestic demand growth, but currently faces low prices and profit pressures. The industry is characterized by an oversupply of low-end products and a shortage of high-end products, leading to a structural imbalance [5][16][18] - The "China BOPET Industry Self-Discipline Initiative" aims to optimize the industry structure and improve profitability by promoting fair market conditions and reducing ineffective supply [19][6] - The market is gradually concentrating resources towards companies with cost and technological advantages, with a positive outlook for the development of high-end polyester film products [6][5] Summary by Sections BOPET Film Overview - BOPET films are widely used in packaging, optical displays, electrical applications, and photovoltaic new energy sectors. The domestic BOPET industry has seen rapid growth in capacity and consumption from 2014 to 2024, but consumption growth has not kept pace with production and capacity growth, leading to an oversupply situation [5][12][28] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: From 2014 to 2024, domestic BOPET capacity expanded from 2.47 million tons to 6.95 million tons, with a CAGR of 10.9%. The industry currently has a capacity of 6.482 million tons per year, with the top 10 companies accounting for 63% of total capacity [20][21] - Demand: During the same period, apparent consumption increased from 1.71 million tons to 4.15 million tons, with a CAGR of 9.3%. The packaging and printing sector accounted for 45.8% of demand in 2024 [28][30] - Imports and Exports: China has become a net exporter of BOPET since 2015, but still imports 200,000 to 300,000 tons annually, indicating reliance on high-end BOPET products [32][36] Price and Profitability - BOPET prices have been under pressure since 2022 due to supply-demand imbalances, with prices reaching historical lows in 2024. The average price in early 2025 was 8,091 RMB per ton, showing a slight year-on-year increase [41][40] - The industry has faced continuous profit pressure since 2022, with many companies transitioning from profit to loss in 2024. However, Q1 2025 showed signs of reduced losses for most companies [6][19] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Dongcai Technology, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, with beneficiaries including Dousheng New Materials and Yuxing Co., Ltd. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Rongsheng Petrochemical plans to increase its stake in the company, aiming to boost investor confidence and support the company's stable development [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Shareholder's Plan - Rongsheng Holdings intends to increase its shareholding in Rongsheng Petrochemical from April 8, 2025, over a period of six months, with a planned investment between RMB 1 billion and RMB 2 billion [1][2]. - The specific implementation start date is April 15, 2025, and there is no set price range for the share purchase [1]. 2. Progress of the Share Purchase - As of the announcement date, Rongsheng Holdings has cumulatively acquired 73,695,898 shares, representing 0.73% of the total share capital of Rongsheng Petrochemical, with an investment amounting to approximately RMB 616.96 million [2][3]. - The total share capital of Rongsheng Petrochemical is noted to be 10 billion shares, with the controlling shareholder holding 53.89% of the total shares [1]. 3. Purpose of the Share Purchase - The share purchase is aimed at enhancing investor confidence, protecting the interests of minority shareholders, and consolidating the controlling position of Rongsheng Holdings to better support the future development of Rongsheng Petrochemical [2][3]. 4. Compliance and Regulations - The share purchase will comply with relevant regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, ensuring no insider trading or short-term trading practices are involved [3].