Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a rapid increase in prices due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran's potential actions in the Strait of Hormuz, with a risk premium estimated at $8-10 per barrel [15][16]. - The overall supply remains in excess, with previous supportive factors like cold weather and reduced production in Kazakhstan starting to stabilize [15]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across various segments of the petrochemical industry, with oil and gas resources showing a +7.79% increase, while the polyester index decreased by -1.82% [10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The petrochemical sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with various indices showing significant weekly changes, including the oil and gas extraction service index at +7.96% and the refining and chemical index at +6.75% [10][11]. Oil Market - As of January 29, WTI crude oil closed at $65.42, up $6.06 from the previous week, while Brent crude closed at $72.57, up $6.60 [16]. - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels, with a notable drop in gasoline inventories as well [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries increased to 80.02%, with a slight rise in gasoline demand due to seasonal travel [16]. - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 659.83 yuan per ton, down 101.65 yuan from the previous period [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has risen to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees reported at 374.32 yuan per ton [15]. - The report notes a decline in profitability for various polyester products, with average profit levels for POY150D at -21.03 yuan per ton [15]. Olefins Market - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [15]. - Propylene prices in Shandong increased by 225 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.64% rise [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural chemical industry is entering a period of layout opportunities, driven by the increasing importance of food security amid geopolitical fluctuations. The focus is on enhancing planting efficiency through technological empowerment [8] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of leading companies in the agricultural chemical sector, particularly those focused on technology services, including plant growth regulators, compound fertilizers, and pesticide formulations [3][8] - The report highlights the recovery opportunities in various sub-sectors of the chemical industry, including MDI, PVC, and refining, with specific companies recommended for investment [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Agricultural Chemical Sector - The report identifies growth opportunities in the agricultural chemical sector, particularly for companies that provide technology-driven services. Key areas include: 1. Plant growth regulators, which are characterized by low usage, high effectiveness, and cost efficiency, are seen as essential for modern agriculture [8] 2. Compound fertilizers are crucial for providing precise nutrient ratios to crops, with room for growth in China's compound fertilizer application rates compared to developed countries [8] 3. The potential for Chinese pesticide formulation companies to expand internationally, breaking the monopoly of traditional multinational corporations [8] Chemical Industry Recovery - The report notes a positive outlook for the recovery of various chemical sub-sectors, including: - MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) [3] - PVC industry players such as Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated) and Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated) [3] - Refining sector leaders like Sinopec (600028, Buy) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy) [3] - The report anticipates continued price increases for high-energy products, particularly in the PVC sector, due to supply constraints and structural demand shifts [8]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报： 春节前终端需求减弱叠加工人返乡增多，织机开机率下滑 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2404元/吨，环比-32元/吨（环比-1%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1092元/吨，环比-44元/吨（环比-4%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6900/7143/8064元/吨，环比分别+179/+179/+207元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为-66/-171/-156元/吨，环比分别-37/-37/-18元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 14.0/15.7/20.0天，环比分别+0.1/-0.8/-1.2天，长丝开工率为86.1%，环比-2.5pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率 为42.4%，环比-8. ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：成本端支撑强劲，化工品及涤纶 产业链价格拉涨 [Table_ReportDate0] 2026 年 2 月 1 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 1 月 30 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2537.18 元/吨，环比变化+18.62 元/吨（+0.74%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1098.52 元/吨，环比变化-42.24 元/吨（- 3.70%）。截至 1 月 30 日当周， ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中国无人驾驶"军团"，"武装"阿布扎比 （记者 曾健辉） 截至2025年11月30日，除本次董事会审议的担保事项外，公司及控股子公司对合并报表外单位提供的担 保总余额为7亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的2.83%，无逾期担保。 每经AI快讯，恒逸石化1月30日晚间发布公告称，海南逸盛是恒逸石化与荣盛石化合作投资建设的国内 大型PTA、瓶片生产企业，海南逸盛注册资本为人民币458,000万元，其中公司的子公司恒逸贸易出资 229,000万元，占海南逸盛注册资本的50%；荣盛石化的子公司逸盛投资出资229,000万元，占海南逸盛 注册资本的50%。 公司及其子公司拟为海南逸盛提供人民币综合授信担保，合计金额不超过120,000万元，担保期限为1 年。根据担保要求并经各方协调，恒逸贸易作为海南逸盛的股东拟通过公司及其子公司为海南逸盛提供 担保，其他股东逸盛投资未对海南逸盛提供对应股权比例的相等担保或反担保。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from the "dual carbon" policy implementation [5]. Core Insights - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to significantly impact the chemical industry, with a focus on carbon emissions control becoming a rigid constraint during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][14]. - The report identifies that the attention towards "dual carbon" from provincial leaders has increased by 137% since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards carbon emissions as a critical performance metric [7][18]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo structural changes, with high carbon intensity sectors facing supply constraints, while low-carbon leaders are expected to benefit from the transition [8][30]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan": Carbon Peak Closing Battle - Local carbon assessments may treat carbon emissions as an equally important rigid constraint [15]. - High carbon intensity sectors such as ammonia fertilizer, coal chemical, and chlorine-alkali are likely to face capacity constraints first [29][30]. 2. Petrochemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to undergo a transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand structures [38]. - Refining sector dynamics are shifting towards improved supply-demand balance due to stringent approval processes for new projects and the elimination of high-energy-consuming capacities [38]. 3. Basic Chemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - Coal chemical industry is projected to stabilize supply under carbon limits, driving quality improvements in the sector [3.1]. - Carbon fiber and fluorochemical sectors are expected to benefit from process optimization and green transitions [3.2][3.3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of leading companies: 1. Integrated leaders in the oil chemical sector with scale and efficiency advantages [8]. 2. Coal chemical leaders with advanced processes and low emissions [8]. 3. High-quality firms in fluorochemical and carbon fiber sectors that align with "dual carbon" goals [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The polyester industry chain is showing overall improvement, benefiting companies within the chain, particularly private large-scale refining enterprises [1][3] - PX supply is tight due to seasonal production cuts from leading companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical, with inventory at historical lows, enhancing bargaining power for major players like Rongsheng Petrochemical, Sinopec, and PetroChina [1][2] Key Points on PTA and PX - No new PTA capacity is expected in 2026, while downstream polyester production plans are anticipated to drive PTA prices up, with current PTA profitability gradually improving [1][2] - The price of long and short fibers is influenced by cost factors, particularly fluctuations in PTA and ethylene glycol prices [1][2] - Ethylene glycol is expected to see new capacity coming online from late 2025 to early 2026, leading to a relatively loose supply in the first half of 2026, although significant price increases are unlikely [1][4] Market Dynamics - Domestic demand for polyester filament is recovering moderately, with the cancellation of mandatory certification in India providing export benefits and overseas demand growing at 10%-15% annually [3][8] - Companies are rationally controlling operating rates to balance profits, with expectations for filament prices to improve post-Spring Festival [3][8] Company Capacities - Major PX producers and their capacities include: - Rongsheng Petrochemical: 10.4 million tons - Sinopec: 7.5 million tons - PetroChina: 6.3 million tons - Hengli Petrochemical: 5 million tons - Dongfang Shenghong: 2.8 million tons - Hengyi Petrochemical: 1.05 million tons [5] Technological Advancements in PTA - The PTA industry has undergone significant technological iterations, reducing energy consumption and processing fees, with fourth-generation processing costs dropping to 300-350 RMB/ton [7] - The industry faced severe losses in the second half of 2025, but recent improvements in processing fees are expected to continue into 2026 [7] Challenges for Private Refining Enterprises - New refining capacity is becoming increasingly difficult to secure due to carbon emission pressures and strict domestic regulations on liquefied projects [10] - High energy costs and insufficient competitiveness have led to many European ethylene and large chemical facilities opting for shutdowns, presenting challenges but also opportunities for structural optimization [10] Profitability Insights - Many refineries are currently operating at a loss due to the price differential from crude oil to naphtha, but private refining enterprises with longer product lines and higher production efficiency are performing relatively well [11] - PX currently shows favorable profitability, with a price differential close to $350 and processing fees around $150 [11] Future Outlook - The ethylene market is at a cyclical low, with potential for price increases as overseas capacities decrease, which could benefit private refining enterprises [12] - Long-term prospects for private refining companies are positive, with expectations of entering an upward cycle due to scale advantages, technological capabilities, and integrated production [14]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share liquor sector experienced a significant surge, with a rise of 9.68% on January 29, leading the market performance for the day [1][2] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector also saw a notable increase of 8.18%, with a total transaction volume of 32.31 billion [2] - The precious metals sector rose by 8.04%, with a transaction volume of 70.62 billion, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 2: Energy and Petrochemical Sector Dynamics - The energy and petrochemical sector's rise began in early January 2026, with domestic crude oil futures rebounding from 411 yuan/barrel to 475 yuan/barrel, a 15% increase [4] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector has accumulated a remarkable increase of 44.22% year-to-date, ranking second in market performance, only behind precious metals [7] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown a cumulative increase of 14.71% since the beginning of the year, reflecting strong investor interest [9] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The recent surge in the petrochemical sector is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, raising concerns over oil supply stability [11] - The market has priced in a risk premium of $3-8 per barrel due to fears of potential disruptions in oil supply from Iran, which produces approximately 3.3 million barrels per day [11] - The classic rotation pattern in commodity markets, where precious metals lead, followed by industrial metals and then energy, is being validated again [14][16] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to gain market attention as commodity prices rise, driven by increased costs in agricultural production due to higher energy prices [17][24] - The CPI and food prices have shown signs of recovery, with the CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential shift in consumer price dynamics [18] - The agricultural ETF (516810) tracks a comprehensive index covering the entire agricultural value chain, which may benefit from the rising commodity prices [26] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry is at a turning point, with new policies aimed at preventing excessive competition and improving profitability [22] - The capital expenditure ratios in the refining and chemical sectors are showing a trend towards conservatism, indicating a strategic shift among companies [23] - The anticipated recovery in the petrochemical sector is supported by both geopolitical factors and the broader commodity market dynamics, suggesting a favorable outlook for industry leaders [24][25]

证券之星消息，1月29日炼化及贸易板块较上一交易日上涨1.06%，润贝航科领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4157.98，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于14300.08，下跌0.3%。炼化及贸易板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 名称 | | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601857 | 中国石油 | 2.44(Z | 5.34% | 6.74万 | 0.00% | -2.44 Z | -5.35% | | 002493 荣盛石化 | | 1.35 Z | 11.17% | -606.82万 | -0.50% | -1.29 Z | -10.67% | | 001316 润贝航科 | | 8416.08万 | 32.17% | -4838.68万 | -18.50% | -3577.40万 | -13.68% | | 002408 齐翔腾达 | | 4820.90万 | 10.82% | -1959.24万 | -4.40% | - ...

Group 1 - The refining and trading sector increased by 2.34% on January 28, with Taishan Petroleum leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed significant price increases, with Taishan Petroleum rising by 6.84% to a closing price of 8.12 [1] Group 2 - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 236 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 702 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Guanghui Energy and China Petroleum had varying net inflows and outflows, indicating mixed investor sentiment [3] - Taishan Petroleum had a net inflow of 53.70 million yuan from main funds, but a significant outflow of 777.49 million yuan from retail investors [3]