证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 荣盛石化(002493.SZ) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 点评： [Table_OtherReport] ➢ 炼化景气周期偏弱，2024 年公司业绩短期承压。油价端，2024 年国际 油价中高位震荡运行，上半年油价呈现冲高后回落企稳态势；下半年受 全球宏观经济形势转弱、地缘担忧情绪放缓影响，国际油价震荡下行。 2024 年布伦特平均油价为 79.86 美元/桶，较 2023 年中枢下移 2.31 美 元/桶，成本端价格重心有所下移。从行业盈利角度看，根据百川盈孚数 据，2024 年主要炼化产品汽油、柴油、煤油、聚乙烯、聚丙烯、PX、 纯苯单吨理论毛利变化分别为+21、+2、-364、-431、-599、-818、+352 元/吨，化工板块处于周期磨底阶段，整体炼化板块景气偏弱。从公司盈 利结构看，主要子 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 荣盛石化(002493.SZ) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 30 日 [Table_S 事件：202ummar 5 年y]4 月 24 日晚，荣盛石化发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年公 司实现营业收入 3264.75 亿元，同比增长 0.42%；实现归母净利润 7.24 亿 元，同比下降 37.44%；实现扣非后归母净利润为 7.62 亿元，同比下降 7.06%；实现基本每股收益 0.08 元，同比下降-33.33%。其中，第四季度公 司实现营业收入 812.79 亿元，同比下降 5.56%，环比下降 3.18%；实现归 母净利润-1.52 亿元，同比下降 114.49%，环比下降 912.03%；实现扣非后 净利润 0.74 亿元，同比下降 92.21%，环比增长 367.64%。 2025 年 4 月 29 日晚，公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，2025 年一季度公司 实现营业收入 749.75 亿元，同比下降 7.54 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY24 performance with revenue of 326.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit of 724 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.4% [1]. Financial Performance - FY24 revenue was 326.475 billion yuan, with a net profit of 724 million yuan, reflecting a 37.4% decline year-on-year [1]. - 4Q24 revenue was 81.279 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 152 million yuan [1]. - 1Q25 revenue was 74.975 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 588 million yuan, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year [1]. - Zhejiang Petrochemical achieved a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan in FY24, up 159% year-on-year, and 1.27 billion yuan in 1Q25, a 1% increase year-on-year [1]. - CNOOC Petrochemical reported a loss of 1.249 billion yuan in FY24, with PTA and bottle chips losses of approximately 260 million yuan [1]. Industry Trends - In 1Q25, costs significantly decreased, with coal prices dropping from 765 yuan/ton to 652 yuan/ton, benefiting the company's cost structure [2]. - The price differentials for downstream products like olefins remained strong, while PX and pure benzene price differentials continued to decline [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end materials and expanding its product offerings, including the production of α-olefins and rare earth rubber [2]. - The average Brent crude oil price decreased to 66.6 USD/barrel in 2Q25, which is expected to improve chemical product profitability in 3Q25 and beyond [2]. Investor Returns - The company has shown commitment to investor returns, with a total of approximately 1.693 billion yuan in share buybacks in 2024 and an ongoing buyback plan of 1-2 billion yuan in 2025 [3]. - In 2024, the company distributed cash dividends of 957 million yuan, accounting for 34% of distributable profits [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to lower-than-expected recovery in refining profits, the company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025-26 by 40.6% and 27.0% to 1.896 billion yuan and 4.922 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 43.7x for 2025 and 16.8x for 2026 [4]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 7.6% to 9.7 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 18.4% from the current stock price [4].

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) has demonstrated strong market competitiveness and risk resistance by achieving significant performance growth in Q1 2025, despite a challenging international crude oil market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Rongsheng Petrochemical reported total operating revenue of 74.975 billion RMB, a slight year-on-year decrease of 7.54% - The total profit reached 1.345 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.91% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 588 million RMB, up 6.53% compared to the same period last year - The non-recurring net profit grew by 30.28%, reaching 618 million RMB [1]. Market Conditions - Historical data indicates that crude oil price fluctuations are critical for refining companies' profitability, with margins improving significantly when oil prices are in the 40-80 USD/barrel range - Currently, oil prices have dropped to the 65 USD/barrel range, benefiting refining companies by improving cost structures and expanding product margins - An increase of 100 RMB per ton in refining profit could potentially add approximately 4 billion RMB to Rongsheng Petrochemical's profits, given its refining capacity of 40 million tons per year [2]. Industry Position - Rongsheng Petrochemical is viewed as a core player for "bottoming out and rebounding" in the market, supported by its full industry chain advantages and the release of high-end new material capacities - The company holds a significant position in the chemical materials market in China and Asia, excelling in polyester, new energy materials, engineering plastics, and high-value-added polyolefins - The integrated refining project led by the company has an annual processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil, producing 8.8 million tons of paraxylene (PX) and 4.2 million tons of ethylene [2][3]. Future Outlook - With the stabilization of crude oil prices and a gradual recovery in market demand, Rongsheng Petrochemical is expected to further enhance its influence in the global new materials supply chain - The company aims to align with industry trends such as product high-endization, cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and sustainable development - It plans to deepen its integrated refining advantages and drive industrial upgrades through technological innovation, accelerating its transition towards high-end, green, and intelligent operations [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates a recovery in refining and polyester profitability, with both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter performance improvements [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 74.975 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.54% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.76%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 588 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 486.62% [6] - The report highlights a recovery in refining profitability, driven by rising oil prices and increased travel demand, with an average price difference for crude oil catalytic cracking estimated at 1,108 USD/ton, up 13.4% year-on-year and 11.7% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The polyester industry is seeing profits concentrated in the downstream filament segment, with the filament price difference recovering significantly [6] - The collaboration with Saudi Aramco is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects for the company [6] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 4.311 billion, 6.389 billion, and 8.437 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 19X, 13X, and 10X respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 345.713 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.311 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 495% [5] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 11.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9% [5]

4月29日，荣盛石化（002493.SZ）发布了其2025年第一季度报告，展现了公司在复杂市场环境下依旧保 持的强劲经营现金流表现。尤其引人注目的是，公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额达到了79.77亿元， 同比大幅增长了93.19%，显示出荣盛石化在面对行业挑战时所展现出的坚韧与活力。 回顾过去一年，即2024年，荣盛石化实现了经营活动产生的现金净流量达到346.09亿元的历史新高，同 比增长23.26%。而更令人瞩目的是，在过去的五年间，公司累计经营活动现金净流入超过了1300亿 元，这不仅体现了荣盛石化的稳健经营风格，也标志着其经营质量的显著提升。强大的现金流为公司的 可持续发展奠定了坚实的基础，同时也赋予了公司进行持续分红、股份回购及增持等回馈股东行为的底 气。 荣盛石化始终将投资者利益保护作为其核心战略之一，坚持通过持续稳健的分红政策和实际有力的资本 回馈来实现"与股东共成长"的承诺。自上市以来，公司已连续15次年现金分红，近三年内现金分红占归 母净利润的比例高达64.93%。特别是2024年度，荣盛石化计划向全体股东每10股派发现金红利1.00元 （含税），总计拟分配现金红利达9.57亿元。此外，全年 ...

Group 1 - Longi Green Energy reported a net loss of 8.618 billion yuan for 2024, with revenue of 82.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.23% due to falling prices of key products like modules and wafers [2] - In Q1 2025, Longi Green Energy achieved revenue of 13.652 billion yuan, down 22.75%, with a net loss of 1.436 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.350 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - China Southern Airlines reported a Q1 2025 net loss of 747 million yuan, with revenue of 43.407 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.68% year-on-year [27] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 43.557 billion yuan, with direct sales revenue of 23.220 billion yuan and wholesale revenue of 27.359 billion yuan [9] - Industrial Fulian reported a 2024 net profit increase of 15.86%, with revenue of 609.135 billion yuan and a net profit of 23.216 billion yuan [10] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation reported a 2024 net profit increase of 22.21%, with a net profit of 3.614 billion yuan [15] Group 3 - Longyang Power reported a 19.86% increase in net profit for 2024, reaching 32.496 billion yuan, with total profit of 38.862 billion yuan [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a 17.29% increase in net profit for 2024, totaling 12.243 billion yuan, with revenue of 36.011 billion yuan [5] - China National Petroleum Corporation reported a Q1 2025 net profit increase of 43.4%, reaching 12.849 billion yuan [26] Group 4 - Ganfeng Lithium reported a Q1 2025 net loss of 356 million yuan, with revenue of 3.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 25.43% [38] - Tianqi Lithium reported a Q1 2025 net profit of 104 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss, with revenue of 2.584 billion yuan [39] - Huazhong Microelectronics reported a Q1 2025 net profit increase of 151%, reaching 83.216 million yuan [40]

截至2024年底，荣盛石化具备原油加工能力4000万吨/年，化工品总产能（含联营企业）达到5927万 吨，相应2024年度化工品营业收入合计2786亿元。目前，公司位居全球化工最具价值品牌榜第6位、全 球化工公司十亿美元俱乐部第6位、全球化工企业100强第8位。 "回购注销+大手笔增持"彰显长期发展信心 据日前的公告显示，荣盛石化拟将存放于回购专用证券账户第一期回购的1.36亿股股份予以注销，并相 应减少注册资本。第一期回购时间区间为2022年3月29日至2022年8月2日，成交总金额为19.98亿元（不 含交易费用）。据统计，荣盛石化自2022年至今累计开展三期股份回购计划，累计回购公司股票5.53亿 股，占公司总股本的5.46%，成交总金额为69.88亿元（不含交易费用），回购规模领跑A股市场。 增持方面，基于看好国内资本市场长期投资的价值以及对公司未来持续稳定发展的信心，4月8日，荣盛 石化发布公告，其控股股东荣盛控股集团将启动新一轮为期六个月的增持计划，拟增持荣盛石化10亿 元-20亿元。而2024年以来，荣盛控股已连续开展多次增持，累计增持公司股票16.93亿元。持续的大手 笔增持及回购操作，彰显了 ...

一、监事会会议召开情况 荣盛石化股份有限公司（以下简称"荣盛石化"）第六届监事会第二十三次 会议通知于 2025 年 4 月 22 日以电子邮件、书面形式送达荣盛石化全体监事。监 事会会议于 2025 年 4 月 29 日以通讯方式召开，会议由荣盛石化监事会主席孙国 明先生主持，监事会会议应出席的监事 3 人，实际出席会议的监事 3 人。本次监 事会会议的召开符合《公司法》等法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件及《公 司章程》的有关规定。 证券代码：002493 证券简称：荣盛石化 公告编号：2025-029 荣盛石化股份有限公司 第六届监事会第二十三次会议决议公告 本公司及监事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 符合法律、行政法规和中国证监会的规定，报告内容真实、准确、完整地反映了 上市公司的实际情况，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 表决结果：同意 3 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 三、备查文件 1.《荣盛石化股份有限公司第六届监事会第二十三次会议决议》。 特此公告。 二、监事会会议审议情况 经与会监事认真审议，充分讨论，以记名投票方式表决，会 ...

荣盛石化股份有限公司（以下简称"荣盛石化"）第六届董事会第二十四次会 议通知于 2025 年 4 月 22 日以电子邮件、书面形式送达荣盛石化全体董事。董事 会会议于 2025 年 4 月 29 日以通讯方式召开，会议由荣盛石化董事长李水荣先生 主持，会议应出席的董事 9 人，实际出席会议的董事 9 人。本次董事会会议的召 开符合《公司法》等法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件及《公司章程》的 有关规定。 证券代码：002493 证券简称：荣盛石化 公告编号：2025-028 荣盛石化股份有限公司 第六届董事会第二十四次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 二、董事会会议审议情况 经与会董事认真审议，充分讨论，以记名投票方式表决，会议审议通过了以 下议案： 1.《关于 2025 年第一季度报告的议案》 该议案的具体内容详见 2025 年 4 月 30 日刊登于《证券时报》《证券日报》 《中国证券报》《上海证券报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）上的《2025 年第一季度报告》（公告 ...