Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester filament industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for quality companies in this sector [5][14]. Core Insights - The cost support for polyester filament raw materials remains solid, with expectations for a post-holiday inventory replenishment trend. The industry is currently in a seasonal lull before the Spring Festival, but proactive supply adjustments are laying the groundwork for recovery after the holiday [5][6]. - As of February 6, 2026, the operating rate for downstream textile production has dropped to 25.15%, while the operating rate for polyester filament has decreased to 79.65%. This decline is attributed to seasonal maintenance and self-regulated production cuts, effectively alleviating supply pressure [5][6]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament (POY/FDY/DTY) are at historical lows, with respective days of inventory at 12.7, 15.8, and 19.4 days. Downstream raw material inventory has also fallen to a historical low of 8.74 days, indicating a clear need for replenishment post-holiday [5][7]. - The price spread for polyester filament has significantly improved since late January 2026, with POY/FDY/DTY spreads recovering to 1375, 1575, and 2475 CNY/ton respectively. The PTA cost support remains robust, with no major new PTA facilities expected to come online in 2026, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance that will continue to support filament prices [5][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with the closing price on February 6, 2026, at 68.05 USD/barrel, down 3.73% from the previous week. The WTI price was 63.55 USD/barrel, down 2.55% [21]. - As of January 30, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 420 million barrels, a decrease of 3.455 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 4% decline compared to the past five years [23]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore increased to 15.63 USD/barrel as of February 6, 2026, reflecting a rise of 6.2 USD/barrel from the previous week [60]. - The price spread for gasoline (RBOB) against WTI crude oil was 18.4 USD/barrel, up 1.8 USD/barrel from the previous week, although still below the historical average of 24.5 USD/barrel [63]. Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA has increased, while the profitability of polyester filament has decreased. As of February 4, 2026, the average price of PX in Asia was 904.93 USD/ton, down 1.78% week-on-week [5][14]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is currently average, with expectations for gradual improvement as new production capacities are expected to taper off in the coming years [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for the global chemical industry driven by the new demand cycle from anti-involution and AI, with a focus on the upcoming peak season in the chemical sector leading to price increases [1][2] - Chinese chemical companies are expected to benefit from solid cost and efficiency advantages, entering a long-term upward performance cycle [2] - The report emphasizes the potential for increased dividend yields as supply-side constraints and demand recovery enhance industry profitability [2] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on sectors with supply constraints and recovering demand, which are likely to see sustained improvements in industry conditions [2] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Coal Chemical: Hualu Chemical, Luxi Chemical, Baofeng Energy 2. Oil Refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC 3. Polyurethane: Wanhua Chemical, Huafeng Chemical 4. Phosphate Fertilizer: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, Xinyangfeng, Batian Shares 5. Pesticides: Yangnong Chemical, Lier Chemical, Xingfa Group, Limin Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Xin'an Shares, Runfeng Shares 6. Potash Fertilizer: Salt Lake Shares, Yara International, Oriental Iron Tower [2] Supply Drivers - The report notes that domestic anti-involution measures and the exit of European production capacity are expected to support the chemical industry's recovery [3] Demand Drivers - The report identifies several demand-driven opportunities, including: 1. Gas turbines and SOFC upstream: Zhenhua Shares, Yingliu Shares, Longda Shares, Wanze Shares, Sanhuan Group 2. Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: Juhua Shares, New Zhoubang, Runhe Materials 3. Energy storage industry chain: Chuanheng Shares, Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Shares, Yuntu Holdings 4. Robotics materials industry chain: PEEK - Kingfa Technology, Zhongyan Shares, Guoen Shares, Huitong Shares 5. Semiconductor materials industry chain: Photoresists: Yanggu Huatai, Wanhua Shares, Dinglong Shares, Tongcheng New Materials, Jingrui Electric Materials, Jiuri New Materials, Yake Technology [7][10] Recent Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong relative performance, with a 1-month increase of 5.7%, a 3-month increase of 15.4%, and a 12-month increase of 47.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [5] Key Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many, with several companies rated as "Buy" [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Oil ETF (561360), which opened with a gain of 0.84% at 1.442 yuan on February 9 [1] - The major holdings of the Oil ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sinopec, with varying performance: China National Petroleum down 0.74%, China National Offshore Oil down 0.29%, and Sinopec unchanged [1] - The Oil ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return, managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 42.91% since its establishment on October 23, 2023, and a return of 13.78% over the past month [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances within the ETF include Jerry Holdings up 2.76%, China Merchants Energy up 2.55%, and Henglian Petrochemical up 1.17% [1] - The article provides a detailed overview of the ETF's performance metrics, indicating a strong upward trend in the oil sector [1]

Group 1: Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline and diesel have increased this week [1][2] - In the US, gasoline prices have also risen this week [2] Group 2: PX Market - The average price of PX this week is $895.6 per ton, down $26.4 per ton from the previous week, with a price difference from crude oil of $404.1 per ton, down $23.5 per ton [1][2] - PX operating rate stands at 89.9%, unchanged from the previous week [1][2] Group 3: Key Refining Projects - The price difference for key domestic refining projects this week is 2403 CNY per ton, up 38 CNY per ton (2% increase) from the previous week [1] - The price difference for key foreign refining projects this week is 1104 CNY per ton, up 7 CNY per ton (1% increase) from the previous week [1] Group 4: Polyester Sector - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 7071, 7279, and 8179 CNY per ton respectively, with increases of 171, 136, and 114 CNY per ton from the previous week [1] - Weekly profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 208, 80, and 80 CNY per ton respectively, with increases of 275, 251, and 237 CNY per ton from the previous week [1] - Inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY are 12.7, 15.8, and 19.4 days respectively, with changes of -1.3, +0.1, and -0.6 days from the previous week [1] - The operating rate for long filament is 83.5%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous week [1] Group 5: Weaving Sector - The operating rate for weaving machines is 42.4%, down 8.8 percentage points from the previous week [1] - Raw material inventory for weaving enterprises is 8.7 days, up 0.1 days from the previous week [1] - Finished goods inventory for weaving enterprises is 26.0 days, down 2.7 days from the previous week [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that domestic and international refining projects are experiencing price changes, with domestic projects showing a price difference of 2403 CNY/ton, up by 38 CNY/ton (2% increase) compared to the previous week [2] - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 7071, 7279, and 8179 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 171, 136, and 114 CNY/ton [2] - The average profit for POY, FDY, and DTY is reported at 208, 80, and 80 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week increases of 275, 251, and 237 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - The PX average price this week is 895.6 USD/ton, down by 26.4 USD/ton from the previous week, with a price difference from crude oil of 404.1 USD/ton, which is a decrease of 23.5 USD/ton [2] - The PX operating rate stands at 89.9%, showing no change from the previous week [2] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have risen this week, as have gasoline prices in the United States [2] Group 3 - Relevant listed companies in the private refining and polyester filament sector include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [3]

Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the China Petroleum Industry Index (H11057) rose by 2.00%, with key stocks such as Zhejiang Longsheng up 6.18%, Hengyi Petrochemical up 5.01%, and Rongsheng Petrochemical up 4.93% [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 1.82%, with a latest price of 1.0 yuan and a turnover rate of 10.86% during the trading session [1] - The Petrochemical ETF attracted a total of 1.447 billion yuan in inflows over the past 20 trading days [1] Key News - The previous trading day saw fuel oil prices fluctuate upwards, closing above the moving average. In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, PetroChina and BP purchased three ships of 20,000 tons each of 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil from Sinopec, Shell, and Canon for loading between February 19-23 [2] - The PVC main contract fell by 2.18%, with spot prices decreasing by 40-50 yuan/ton. The price trend and inventory depletion speed depend on the recovery of demand post-Spring Festival. If downstream projects like infrastructure can effectively start, inventory pressure may gradually ease [2] - As of the end of January 2026, domestic PVC social inventory was 1.2064 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.45% and a year-on-year increase of 60.54% [2] Global Refining Activity - As of the week ending February 6, global refinery shutdowns totaled approximately 5.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 880,000 barrels per day from the previous week, primarily driven by the resumption of activities in Asia [3] - Future global refinery shutdowns are expected to slightly decrease to just above 5 million barrels per day, largely dependent on the restart timing of the Dangote refinery, a key uncertainty in Africa [3] Geopolitical Focus - The situation in Iran is under market scrutiny, with plans for continued negotiations and a significant decrease in the probability of U.S. actions against Iran, leaving Iranian oil supply and the Strait of Hormuz unaffected [3] - The Russia-Ukraine situation shows no significant progress in ceasefire agreements, with ongoing negotiations under pressure from sanctions and reduced Indian purchases affecting Russia's financial position [3] Institutional Insights - CICC believes that the next expected turning point in the oil market may be the production peak of U.S. shale oil, with potential for substantial improvement in market oversupply in the second half of the year, which could provide marginal cost guidance and upward price movement opportunities [4] Popular ETFs - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) track the China Petroleum Industry Index, focusing on "big energy" security logic. They not only share profits from downstream chemical products but also secure upstream resource value through high allocations to leading refining companies, demonstrating stronger performance resilience during oil price upcycles [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery opportunity across various sub-sectors, with specific recommendations for leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) in the MDI sector, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028, Buy) in the refining sector [3][5] - The demand for oxalic acid is expected to rise, driven by investments in the iron-lithium supply chain, indicating a tightening supply-demand situation that may elevate market conditions [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report continues to favor recovery opportunities in the chemical sub-sectors, recommending leading companies such as: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC industry: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining sector: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Agricultural chemical chain: Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), Xinyangfeng (000902, Buy), Shidanli (002588, Not Rated), Yuntu Holdings (002539, Not Rated), Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy) - Phosphate chemical sector: Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated), Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) - Oxalic acid sector: Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3] Market Dynamics - The chemical industry has seen increased attention, with a recovery in stock prices following a dip influenced by precious metals and crude oil futures. This indicates a shift away from previous narratives tied to external market influences [8] - The report highlights that the current chemical market rally is primarily driven by policy guidance and strategic adjustments within the industry, suggesting a return to a favorable economic cycle for the chemical sector [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a weekly update on major refining and petrochemical sectors, including price, profit, inventory, and production rate data for domestic and foreign projects, as well as key companies' performance and financial forecasts [1][2][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Brief - **6 Major Private Refining Companies' Performance**: The report tracks the price changes of 6 major private refining companies in the past week, month, three months, and year. For example, Hengli Petrochemical had a -5.3% change in the past week, 12.3% in the past month, 41.5% in the past three months, and 70.9% in the past year [8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: It also provides earnings forecasts for these companies from 2024 to 2027, along with price - earnings ratios (PE) and price - to - book ratios (PB) [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) and domestic and foreign refining spreads are presented. The domestic refining project spread this week was 2403 yuan/ton, a 1.6% increase from last week, while the foreign spread was 1104 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: Product prices, profits, inventories, and production rates are detailed for various polyester products such as PX, MEG, PTA, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips. For instance, the POY industry average price was 7071 yuan/ton this week, a 171 yuan/ton increase, with a weekly average profit of 208 yuan/ton, a 275 yuan/ton increase [2][9]. - **Refining Sector**: Prices and spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China, the US, Europe, and Singapore are reported. For example, the domestic gasoline price was 7588 yuan/ton this week, a 53 yuan/ton increase [9]. - **Chemical Sector**: Prices and spreads of various chemical products like EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, polyethylene, and polypropylene are provided [9]. 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends No specific data analysis is provided in the given content, but it likely focuses on the trends of the big refining index and project spreads [11][12][13]. 2.2 Polyester Sector The section covers multiple aspects such as the prices and profits of PX, PTA, and various polyester filaments (POY, FDY, DTY), as well as the production rates and inventories of polyester products and downstream weaving industries. For example, the PX average price was 895.6 dollars/ton this week, a 26.4 dollars/ton decrease, and the PX production rate was 89.9%, unchanged from last week [2][9]. 2.3 Refining Sector It includes the price and spread relationships between crude oil and refined oil products in different regions (China, the US, Europe, and Singapore), such as the relationship between crude oil and domestic diesel prices [72][75][83]. 2.4 Chemical Sector The section presents the price and spread relationships between crude oil and various chemical products, like the relationship between crude oil and polyethylene LLDPE prices [109][110].

Market Overview - The three major indices in A-shares experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 4065 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.33%, and the ChiNext down 0.73% [2] - The total market turnover was 2.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 308 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 2700 stocks rising [2] Sector Performance - The oil and gas, chemical, and mining sectors showed strong performance, with multiple stocks such as Tongyuan Petroleum and Junyou Co. hitting the daily limit [4] - The chemical sector saw an overall increase of 1.45%, with core sub-industries like basic chemicals and diversified chemicals leading the gains [16] - The basic chemical sector had a net inflow of over 156.73 billion yuan, while the power equipment sector saw a net inflow exceeding 203.54 billion yuan [6] Fund Flow Analysis - Main funds shifted away from defense, media, and food and beverage sectors, moving towards power equipment and basic chemicals [5] - The chemical industry ETF saw significant inflows, with a total of 14.49 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 15 days, indicating strong market confidence in the sector [20] Stock Highlights - Hunan Gold and Data Port were among the top gainers, with net inflows of nearly 29 billion yuan and over 20 billion yuan, respectively [10] - Stocks like Hunan Rihua and Zhejiang Wenlian saw significant outflows, with declines of 7.63% and 9.79% [10] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a "trial period," with a high number of first-day limit-up stocks but lacking a unified logic, indicating rapid rotation of funds [14] - The strong performance of the chemical sector is attributed to a combination of rising product prices, supply-side contraction, and demand from emerging sectors, suggesting a fundamental recovery rather than mere speculation [17]

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日人民币升值受益板块主力资金净流出5.13亿元，游资资金净流入1.2亿元，散户 资金净流入3.93亿元。人民币升值受益板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，2月6日人民币升值受益板块较上一交易日上涨0.16%，荣盛石化领涨。当日上证指数报 收于4065.58，下跌0.25%。深证成指报收于13906.73，下跌0.33%。人民币升值受益板块个股涨跌见下 表： ...