Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the petrochemical cycle is on an upward trend, driven by three main conditions: rising oil prices from the bottom, supply-side capacity clearance, and demand-side stimulation through a loose monetary environment [1][2] - The report predicts that by 2025, oil prices will stabilize at around $50 to $60 per barrel, nearing historical lows, with the World Bank forecasting moderate GDP growth in 2026 and 2027 [1][2] - The report highlights that the reduction in capital expenditure and the clearance of outdated capacity will be key drivers for the improvement of the cycle, with China's refining enterprises expected to see a significant convergence in the ratio of capital expenditure to depreciation starting in 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is effectively controlling capacity, with the government setting a cap of 1 billion tons on refining capacity, signaling the end of the expansion cycle [2] - The report notes that the price spread between naphtha and ethylene has dropped to its lowest point in November 2025, but has since recovered, indicating a positive price transmission mechanism in the industry [2] - The report anticipates that global oil supply and demand will improve in 2026, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fluctuate between $55 and $75 per barrel, benefiting refining profitability [2] Group 3 - The report discusses the increasing influence of China's petrochemical sector on the global stage, as high energy prices in Europe have led to capacity clearance among Western chemical companies, creating a trend of "West retreating and East advancing" [3] - China's private refining enterprises are showing strong profitability resilience and are expected to continue outperforming international petrochemical leaders [3] - The report suggests that the valuation of leading private refining companies in China is at a relative low point, with potential for significant valuation increases if return on equity (ROE) improves [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a collective shift in business strategies driven by multiple factors, leading to a recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The long-standing focus on market share in China's chemical industry is being transformed, with companies now facing increased barriers to entry due to supply-side reforms, environmental checks, and dual carbon goals [1] - Internal policy adjustments and external anti-dumping investigations are signaling a necessary change in the expectations surrounding market share [2] Group 2: Business Strategy Shifts - Companies are moving towards sacrificing existing market share to enhance short-term return rates, as merely halting expansion is no longer sufficient to address inventory and excess capacity [2] - The change in business strategies is primarily driven by shifts in the mindset of entrepreneurs and management, marking a significant departure from previous industry recovery patterns [2] Group 3: Selection Criteria for Investment - The preferred selection criteria for the industry include the strength of expansion constraints and the depth of leading companies' advantages, with stronger constraints leading to lower expectations for market share-driven growth [3] - The depth of leading companies' advantages not only constrains industry expansion but also determines the potential recovery in industry return rates [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended investment opportunities include: - MDI: Wanhua Chemical (600309) - Petrochemicals: Sinopec (600028), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - Phosphate Chemicals: Chuanheng Shares (002895), Yuntianhua (600096), Xingfa Group (600141) - PVC: Zhongtai Chemical (002092), Xinjiang Tianye (600075), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618), Tianyuan Shares (002386) - Polyester Bottle Chips: Wankai New Materials (301216) [4]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is undergoing a strategic shift from a focus on market share to profitability, driven by internal policy adjustments and external pressures such as anti-dumping investigations [4][7][11] - The report identifies five key sectors with investment potential: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes, emphasizing the importance of leading companies with significant market share and competitive advantages [4][12][55] Group 1: Industry Trends - The chemical industry has historically prioritized market share, but recent policies and market conditions are prompting a shift towards profitability [7][13] - The supply-side reforms and dual carbon goals have raised entry barriers, leading to increased industry concentration without curbing expansion ambitions [7][13] - The trend of sacrificing market share for improved returns is becoming more prevalent, as companies recognize the need to adapt to changing market dynamics [31][11] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - MDI: The leading company, Wanhua Chemical, is expected to benefit significantly from its strategic shift towards profitability, with potential for substantial earnings growth in 2026 [56] - Petrochemicals: Major players like Sinopec and Rongsheng Petrochemical are undergoing operational adjustments that could reshape industry trends [57] - Phosphate Chemicals: The sector is poised for revaluation due to a tight supply-demand balance and increasing recognition of phosphate's value in energy security [59][60] - PVC: The industry faces strong supply constraints, with emerging markets driving demand growth despite domestic challenges [60] - Polyester Bottle Flakes: The sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to high industry concentration and strategic production limitations by leading firms [61]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01% on January 20, with 20 industries rising, led by the oil and petrochemical sector, which increased by 1.74% [1] - The communication and defense industries experienced the largest declines, with drops of 3.23% and 2.87% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 95.723 billion yuan, with 11 industries seeing net inflows [1] - The banking sector had the highest net inflow, increasing by 0.80% with a net inflow of 1.472 billion yuan, followed by the real estate sector, which rose by 1.55% with a net inflow of 627 million yuan [1] Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical industry rose by 1.74%, with a net outflow of 32.276 million yuan [2] - Out of 47 stocks in this sector, 31 rose while 15 fell, with 18 stocks experiencing net inflows [2] - The top three stocks with significant net inflows were Hengli Petrochemical (1.75 billion yuan), Sinopec (890.169 million yuan), and Continental Oil (587.633 million yuan) [2] Notable Stocks in Oil and Petrochemical Sector - Major stocks with significant net outflows included Rongsheng Petrochemical (-68.2609 million yuan), Baomo Co. (-66.8692 million yuan), and Tongkun Co. (-44.9582 million yuan) [2] - The table of capital flow in the oil and petrochemical sector highlights various stocks, including Hengli Petrochemical with a 6.62% increase and a net inflow of 17.49715 million yuan, and Sinopec with a 1.35% increase and a net inflow of 890.169 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a meeting between Rongsheng Petrochemical's General Manager Xiang Jiong and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, focusing on enhancing cooperation in oil supply and potential collaboration in liquefied natural gas and other sectors [1] Group 2 - Rongsheng Petrochemical considers Canada as one of its most important crude oil supply sources, indicating a strategic partnership in energy resources [1] - The meeting included discussions on further cooperation regarding Canadian crude oil and opportunities in liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, and ethane [1] - Key participants in the meeting included Canadian ministers and ambassadors, showcasing the significance of the dialogue for both countries [1]

Group 1 - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.46% on January 19, with Bohai Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed significant price increases, with Bohai Chemical rising by 10.02% to a closing price of 4.50 [1] Group 2 - The main capital flow in the refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 562 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 475 million yuan [2] - Notable stock performances included Hengli Petrochemical, which rose by 6.91% to a closing price of 25.08, and Runbei Hangke, which increased by 6.04% to 42.13 [1][2] - The trading volume for Bohai Chemical reached 956,500 shares, contributing to a transaction value of 413 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - The price spread for domestic key refining projects this week is 2439 CNY/ton, down 102 CNY/ton (4% decrease) compared to the previous week [1] - The price spread for foreign key refining projects this week is 1102 CNY/ton, down 58 CNY/ton (5% decrease) compared to the previous week [1] - The average PX price this week is 893.7 USD/ton, up 3.0 USD/ton compared to the previous week, with a price spread against crude oil of 422.9 USD/ton, down 18.1 USD/ton [2] Group 2 - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester sector this week are 6657 CNY/ton, 6879 CNY/ton, and 7779 CNY/ton, respectively, with week-on-week increases of 107 CNY/ton, 129 CNY/ton, and 29 CNY/ton [1] - The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are -61 CNY/ton, -179 CNY/ton, and -179 CNY/ton, with week-on-week changes of +79 CNY/ton, +93 CNY/ton, and +27 CNY/ton [1] - The inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 12.8 days, 17.4 days, and 23.2 days, with week-on-week changes of +1.1 days, -2.1 days, and -1.4 days [1] - The operating rate for long filaments is 90.3%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.1 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - The price spread for domestic key refining projects this week is 2439 CNY/ton, a decrease of 102 CNY/ton (down 4%) compared to the previous week [1] - The price spread for foreign key refining projects this week is 1102 CNY/ton, a decrease of 58 CNY/ton (down 5%) compared to the previous week [1] - The average price of PX this week is 893.7 USD/ton, an increase of 3.0 USD/ton compared to the previous week, with a price spread against crude oil of 422.9 USD/ton, a decrease of 18.1 USD/ton [2] Group 2 - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester sector this week are 6657 CNY/ton, 6879 CNY/ton, and 7779 CNY/ton, with increases of 107 CNY/ton, 129 CNY/ton, and 29 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are -61 CNY/ton, -179 CNY/ton, and -179 CNY/ton, with increases of 79 CNY/ton, 93 CNY/ton, and 27 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [1] - The inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 12.8 days, 17.4 days, and 23.2 days, with changes of +1.1 days, -2.1 days, and -1.4 days respectively compared to the previous week [1] Group 3 - The operating rate for long filaments is 90.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous week [1] - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene have decreased this week [2] - In the US, gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene prices have increased this week [2] Group 4 - Relevant listed companies in the private refining and polyester filament sector include Hengli Petrochemical (600346), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233), and Xin Fengming (603225) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost - end of polyester has strong support, and leading filament producers announced further production cuts. The domestic key large - scale refining and chemical projects' spread this week is 2439 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 102 yuan/ton (- 4%); the foreign key large - scale refining and chemical projects' spread is 1102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/ton (- 5%) [2]. - In the polyester sector, the weekly average prices of POY/FDY/DTY are 6657/6879/7779 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 107/129/29 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits are - 61/- 179/- 179 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 79/93/27 yuan/ton. The inventory levels are 12.8/17.4/23.2 days respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 1.1/- 2.1/- 1.4 days. The filament operating rate is 90.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 pct [2]. - In the refining sector, domestic refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) declined this week, while US refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) increased [2]. - In the chemical sector, the average PX price this week is 893.7 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 dollars/ton. The spread compared to crude oil is 422.9 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18.1 dollars/ton. The PX operating rate is 90.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 pct [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining and Chemical Weekly Data Briefing 3.1. Six Private Refining and Chemical Companies' Performance - **Stock price changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the petroleum and petrochemical index had a 1 - week change of - 0.3%, a 1 - month change of 8.3%, a 3 - month change of 13.1%, a 1 - year change of 15.1%, and a change of 11.7% since the beginning of 2025. Among private refining and chemical companies, Rongcheng Petrochemical had corresponding changes of 0.3%, 23.2%, 21.3%, 31.4%, and 30.0%; Hengli Petrochemical had 1.0%, 24.3%, 39.0%, 63.8%, and 58.4%; Hengyi Petrochemical had - 0.3%, 27.1%, 58.0%, 72.1%, and 68.0%; Tongkun Co., Ltd. had 4.2%, 27.8%, 35.2%, 55.6%, and 57.5%; Xin Fengming had 3.1%, 26.8%, 34.4%, 76.8%, and 88.1% [8]. - **Profit forecasts**: For 2024A - 2027E, Hengli Petrochemical's归母 net profit is expected to be 7.0, 8.0, 9.3, and 10.7 billion yuan respectively; Rongcheng Petrochemical's is expected to be 7, 19, 29, and 41 billion yuan respectively; Xin Fengming's is expected to be 1.1, 1.1, 1.7, and 2.3 billion yuan respectively; Tongkun Co., Ltd.'s is expected to be 1.2, 2.0, 3.5, and 4.0 billion yuan respectively; Hengyi Petrochemical's is expected to be 2, 4, 7, and 8 billion yuan respectively [8]. 3.2. Oil Prices and Refining and Chemical Spreads - **International crude oil**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week is 64.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 dollars/barrel (4.7%), and a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. In yuan/ton, it is 3300.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 143.4 yuan/ton (4.5%), and a year - on - year decrease of 22.2%. The average price of WTI crude oil is 60.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.2 dollars/barrel (3.8%), and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%. In yuan/ton, it is 3085.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 108.5 yuan/ton (3.6%), and a year - on - year decrease of 25.4% [8]. - **Refining and chemical spreads**: The spread of domestic refining and chemical projects this week is 2438.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 102.3 yuan/ton (- 4.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The spread of foreign refining and chemical projects is 1102.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 58.4 yuan/ton (- 5.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 19.6% [8]. 3.3. Polyester Sector - **Upstream products**: PX average price is 893.7 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 dollars/ton, with a spread of 422.9 dollars/ton compared to crude oil, a week - on - week decrease of 18.1 dollars/ton, and an operating rate of 90.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 pct; MEG average price is 3699.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.1 yuan/ton, with a spread of 398.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 126.3 yuan/ton, inventory of 73.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.0 tons, and an operating rate of 64.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 pct; PTA average price is 5047.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20.7 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 160.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.9 yuan/ton, inventory of 3.6 days, no week - on - week change, and an operating rate of 77.4%, a week - on - week increase of 2.3 pct [10]. - **Polyester filaments**: POY average price is 6657.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 107.1 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 60.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 79.1 yuan/ton, and inventory of 12.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 days; FDY average price is 6878.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 128.6 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 179.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 93.3 yuan/ton, inventory of 17.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 days, an operating rate of 90.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 pct, and a sales - to - production ratio of 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 19.7 pct; DTY average price is 7778.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28.6 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 179.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26.9 yuan/ton, and inventory of 23.2 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 days [10]. - **Short fibers and bottle chips**: Polyester short - fiber average price is 6512.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of 9.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 yuan/ton, inventory of 5.9 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 days, an operating rate of 90.7%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 pct, and a sales - to - production ratio of 63.1%, a week - on - week increase of 4.9 pct. Polyester bottle - chip average price is 6098.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 68.6 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 132.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 53.5 yuan/ton [10]. - **Downstream products**: The inventory of weaving is 28.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 tons, and the operating rate is 54.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0 pct [10]. 3.4. Refining Sector - **China**: Gasoline average price is 146.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 82.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 7526.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25.4 yuan/ton, with a spread of 4225.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 168.8 yuan/ton. Diesel average price is 123.3 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 58.8 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 6334.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70.7 yuan/ton, with a spread of 3034.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 214.1 yuan/ton. Jet fuel average price is 102.1 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 37.6 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 5246.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.8 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1946.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 155.2 yuan/ton [10]. - **US**: Gasoline average price is 75.7 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 11.2 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 3873.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 148.6 yuan/ton, with a spread of 573.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 yuan/ton. Diesel average price is 92.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 28.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4731.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 171.2 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1430.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27.8 yuan/ton. Jet fuel average price is 82.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 17.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4198.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 162.0 yuan/ton, with a spread of 897.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.5 yuan/ton [10]. - **Europe**: Gasoline average price is 84.9 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 20.4 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4362.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59.5 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1061.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 83.9 yuan/ton. Diesel average price is 86.6 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 22.1 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4449.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 148.6 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1149.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 yuan/ton. Jet fuel average price is 98.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 4.0 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 34.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 5061.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200.5 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1760.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 57.1 yuan/ton [10]. - **Singapore**: Gasoline average price is 71.8 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 7.4 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 3673.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 62.2 yuan/ton, with a spread of 373.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 81.2 yuan/ton. Diesel average price is 81.1 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.8 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 16.6 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4147.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 136.0 yuan/ton, with a spread of 847.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton. Jet fuel average price is 82.6 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.0 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 18.2 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4228.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 95.6 yuan/ton, with a spread of 928.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47.8 yuan/ton [10]. 3.5. Chemical Products Sector - **EVA**: EVA photovoltaic material average price is 9400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton, with a spread of 6099 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 107 yuan/ton; EVA foaming material average price is 9300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a spread of 5999 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 43 yuan/ton [10]. - **Polyethylene**: LDPE average price is 9207 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 207 yuan/

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the reduction in production of polyester filament supports the upward movement of product prices [1]. - Domestic and international refining project price differentials are tracked, with domestic key refining project price differential at 2474.39 CNY/ton, a decrease of 21.68 CNY/ton (-0.87%) week-on-week, while the international price differential is at 1105.24 CNY/ton, down by 57.47 CNY/ton (-4.94%) [2][3]. - Brent crude oil's weekly average price is reported at 64.50 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, which have influenced oil prices. Initially, oil prices rose due to these tensions, but later eased as the situation in Iran stabilized and Venezuelan oil exports resumed [2][15]. - Domestic refined oil prices have shown a slight decline, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6334.57 CNY (-70.71), 7526.14 CNY (-25.43), and 5246.79 CNY (-11.79) per ton respectively [15]. Chemical Sector - The chemical products' prices have generally increased due to strong cost support. Polyethylene prices are fluctuating, while polypropylene prices are rising due to reduced supply pressure from increased maintenance [2][43]. - EVA prices have significantly increased due to the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, leading to improved price differentials [2][43]. - Benzene prices have risen, but the price differential remains stable, while styrene prices have increased due to strong overseas demand and declining inventory [2][43]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - In the polyester segment, cost support remains strong, but weak demand in the textile sector has led to a slight increase in PX prices. The overall operating rate has decreased due to maintenance and production cuts in filament plants, resulting in price increases driven by supply-side support [2][43].