| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称:鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-073 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码: 128134 | 债券简称:鸿路转债 | | 2、可转换公司债券上市情况 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于预计触发鸿路转债转股价格向下修正条件的 提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 5、自 2024 年 11 月 6 日起至 2024 年 11 月 19 日，公司股票已有 10 个交易日的 收盘价格低于当期转股价格的 85%。若后续公司股票收盘价格继续低于当期转股 价格的 85%，预计将有可能触发转股价格向下修正条件。 一、可转换公司债券发行上市概况 1、可转换公司债券发行情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会"证监许可[2020]1983 号"文核准，安徽鸿路 钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2020 年 10 月 9 日公开发 行了 1,880 万张可转换公司转债，每张面值为人民币 100 元，发行总额 18.80 亿元，期限六年。 2022 年 6 月 8 日 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain Overweight rating with a target price of 23.8 yuan, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 19x [2] - The target price remains unchanged despite a downward revision in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.26/1.40/1.54 yuan from the previous 1.92/2.15/2.39 yuan [2] Core Views - The company's Q1-Q3 2024 steel structure production increased by 0.58% YoY to 3.25 million tons, with Q3 production up 1.42% YoY to 1.14 million tons [2] - New contract signings for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 4.34% YoY to 21.9 billion yuan, with Q3 signings down 3.74% YoY to 7.57 billion yuan [2] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 declined by 6.37% YoY to 15.887 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping 26.29% YoY to 655 million yuan [2] - The company is expected to reach a production capacity of 5.2 million tons by the end of 2024, with a focus on improving intelligent manufacturing to reduce costs [2] Industry Outlook - According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the steel structure industry, China's steel structure usage is expected to reach 140 million tons by 2025 and 200 million tons by 2035, accounting for 15% and 25% of crude steel production, respectively [2] - The National People's Congress approved a 6 trillion yuan debt limit to replace local government implicit debt, with 2 trillion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026, which is expected to benefit the industry [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 21.927 billion yuan, a 6.8% decline YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to drop 26.3% YoY to 869 million yuan [3] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 1.26 yuan, down from 1.71 yuan in 2023A [3] - ROE for 2024E is expected to be 8.8%, down from 12.8% in 2023A [3] Production and Orders - Steel structure production for Q1-Q3 2024 increased by 0.58% YoY to 3.25 million tons, with Q3 production up 1.42% YoY to 1.14 million tons [2] - New contract signings for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 4.34% YoY to 21.9 billion yuan, with Q3 signings down 3.74% YoY to 7.57 billion yuan [2] Valuation and Peers - The company's 2024E PE is 13.10x, compared to peers like Jinggong Steel Structure (11.3x) and Hangxiao Steel Structure (26.9x) [15] - The company's 2024E EPS is 1.26 yuan, higher than peers such as Jinggong Steel Structure (0.27 yuan) and Hangxiao Steel Structure (0.11 yuan) [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% [2][12]. Core Views - The company has faced continuous pressure on performance, with a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024. Revenue reached 15.887 billion yuan, down 6.37%, and net profit was 655 million yuan, down 26.29% [1]. - Weak demand has led to revenue pressure, with new contracts signed in the first three quarters of 2024 amounting to 21.926 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.34% year-on-year. The production model of "customized production based on demand" has also impacted output [1]. - The report anticipates a potential stabilization in steel prices and ongoing improvements from smart transformation initiatives, which could enhance unit profitability [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.887 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.37% year-on-year, and a net profit of 655 million yuan, down 26.29%. The adjusted net profit after excluding non-recurring items was 357 million yuan, down 48.98% [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 5.562 billion yuan, a decline of 5.69% year-on-year, with a net profit of 228 million yuan, down 32.37% [1]. Market Conditions - The overall weak downstream demand has been a significant factor affecting the company's performance. The average price of hot-rolled coils fell by 8.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, contributing to revenue decline [1]. - The company’s steel structure output for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 3.2507 million tons, showing a slowdown in growth compared to 28.4% year-on-year in 2023 [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2024-2026, with estimates of 883 million yuan, 1.070 billion yuan, and 1.174 billion yuan respectively. The expected earnings per share (EPS) for these years are 1.28 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.70 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) of 13.04, 10.76, and 9.81 [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from smart transformation initiatives that will enhance efficiency and profitability in the future [2].

证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 2024 年 11 月 8 日、11 日、12 日投资者关系活动记录表 编号：T2024-014 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | 投资者关系 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | 现场参观 | 电话调研 | | | □其他 | | | | 2024年11月8 日下午14：00— | 16：30 | | | 上海牧鑫私募基金 马响；海富通城基金 | 陈聂 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Honglu Steel Structure (002541 SZ) [6] Core Views - Honglu Steel Structure is the leading domestic steel structure manufacturer with a strong competitive advantage in cost efficiency, production scale, and customer stickiness [1] - The company's annual production capacity has reached 6 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 90% and a production-sales ratio of 95% in 2023 [1] - The domestic steel structure market has significant growth potential, with the industry expected to grow at a CAGR of over 9% from 2023 to 2025 [2] - The company is expanding its overseas business, with successful deliveries in Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico, and is expected to benefit from higher-margin overseas orders [2] - The company is accelerating its intelligent transformation, focusing on cutting, welding, and spraying processes, which is expected to significantly improve cost efficiency and profitability [3] Industry Overview - The domestic steel structure market is highly fragmented, with the top 5 listed companies accounting for only 7% of the market share in 2023, and Honglu Steel Structure holding a 3 8% market share [2] - The steel structure industry is expected to grow steadily, with the usage of steel structures projected to reach 1 4 billion tons by 2025, accounting for 15% of crude steel production [2] - The industry is undergoing a transformation, with small and medium-sized enterprises being phased out due to stricter policies and price fluctuations, while leading companies like Honglu Steel Structure are strengthening their market position [39] Company Operations - The company has 10 major production bases across China, strategically located to enhance order response speed and large-scale project collaboration [18] - Honglu Steel Structure has a strong cost advantage due to its large-scale procurement, intelligent production, and refined management capabilities, with steel procurement costs 10%-13% lower than industry peers [21] - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with major state-owned enterprises and industry leaders, such as China State Construction, China Metallurgical Group, and SMIC, ensuring stable and large-scale orders [32] Intelligent Transformation - The company is focusing on intelligent transformation in three core areas: cutting, welding, and spraying, which is expected to significantly improve production efficiency and reduce costs [3] - By 2024, the company had equipped over 500 high-power laser cutting machines, improving cutting precision and efficiency, and increasing material utilization by 0 9% [3][56] - The company has made significant progress in welding robots, with the potential to increase gross margins by 0 9-1 8 percentage points depending on the replacement rate of welding robots [3] Overseas Expansion - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with orders from Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico already delivered in 2024 [2] - Overseas orders are expected to contribute significantly to the company's profitability, with higher margins compared to domestic orders [47] - The company's overseas business is mainly driven by domestic customers' overseas projects, which reduces market development costs and avoids risks associated with geopolitical and exchange rate fluctuations [47] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 23 539 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18 6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1 179 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1 4% [5] - The company's R&D investment in 2023 was 700 million yuan, accounting for 2 97% of revenue, a significant increase of 52% year-on-year [51] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1 25, 1 40, and 1 56 yuan per share, respectively, with a current PE ratio of 13 4x for 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [3][12]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure due to weak upstream and downstream demand, leading to a slight decline in orders and revenue. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.89 billion yuan, down 6.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 655 million yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company is increasing its investment in smart transformation, which is expected to enhance product quality and reduce production costs in the long term, thereby strengthening its scale effect [1]. - The report suggests that with the introduction of new counter-cyclical adjustment policies, downstream market demand is expected to recover, which may further improve the company's capacity utilization and sales prices [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company signed new orders worth 21.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw new orders of 7.44 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year [1]. - The average steel price index showed a downward trend, with the company's gross profit margin in the third quarter at 9.21%, down 1.59 percentage points from the previous quarter and down 3.10 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses for the first three quarters reached 510 million yuan, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year, reflecting its commitment to smart manufacturing [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, predicting operating revenues of 21.88 billion yuan, 23.47 billion yuan, and 25.50 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 24.91 billion yuan, 26.43 billion yuan, and 27.69 billion yuan [1][8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised down to 880 million yuan, 934 million yuan, and 1.021 billion yuan, compared to previous estimates of 1.203 billion yuan, 1.358 billion yuan, and 1.510 billion yuan [1][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.3, 10.7, and 9.7 respectively [1][6]. - The report indicates a decline in the gross profit margin forecast for 2024-2026 to 10.5% for each year, down from previous estimates of 12.8%, 13.0%, and 13.1% [8][9].

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（下称"公司"）第六届董事会第十四次会议 于 2024 年 10 月 29 日以送达方式发出，并于 2024 年 11 月 5 日在公司会议室以现场的方 式召开。会议应出席董事 5 人，实际出席董事 5 人，会议由董事长万胜平先生主持，公司 全体监事、高级管理人员列席了会议。本次会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》和《公司章 程》的有关规定，出席会议的董事以书面表决的方式通过了以下决议，决议合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 会议经过审议并表决，形成决议如下： | 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-069 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 一、会议以 5 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权，审议通过了《关于暂不向下修正"鸿路转债" 转股价格的议案》。 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 第六届董事会第十四次会议决议公告 特此公告。 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有 ...

5、自 2024 年 10 月 16 日至 2024 年 11 月 5 日期间，公司股票已有十五个交 易日的收盘价低于当期转股价格的 85%（即 32.44 元/股）的情形，已触发"鸿 路转债"转股价格的向下修正条款。 证券代码:002541 证券简称:鸿路钢构 公告编号:2024-070 债券代码:128134 债券简称:鸿路转债 安徽鸿路钢结构(集团)股份有限公司 关于不向下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示 4、转股期限：2021 年 4 月 15 日至 2026 年 10 月 8 日 6、2024 年 11 月 5 日，公司召开第六届董事会第十四次会议审议通过了《关 于暂不向下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格的议案》，公司董事会决定本次不向下修 正"鸿路转债"转股价格。自本次董事会审议通过后的次一交易日（即 2024 年 11 月 6 日）重新起算，若再次触发"鸿路转债"转股价格向下修正条款，届时 公司董事会将再次召开会议决定是否行使"鸿路转债"转股价格的向下修正权利。 一、可转换公司债券发行上市概况 1、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 15.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 660 million yuan, down 26% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 360 million yuan, down 49% year-on-year [2][6] - The slowdown in steel structure production growth is attributed to a large-scale intelligent transformation of production equipment, leading to a temporary decline in capacity utilization [6] - The company's steel structure profitability is under pressure due to intensified industry competition, resulting in price declines exceeding cost reductions [6] - The company expects revenue growth to recover in the coming years, with projected revenues of 22.8 billion, 25.2 billion, and 27.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, down 32% year-on-year [2][6] - The average capacity utilization rate for the first three quarters of 2024 is estimated at 86.7%, a decrease of 5% year-on-year [6] - The company signed new contracts worth 21.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with Q3 new contracts amounting to 7.6 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit per ton of steel structure was 447 yuan in Q3 2024, down 196 yuan year-on-year, while the net profit per ton was 172 yuan, down 106 yuan year-on-year [6] - The company’s operating cash flow improved in Q3 2024, with a net cash flow of 370 million yuan, an increase of 2.7 million yuan year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantages and growth prospects, with a projected EPS of 1.48, 1.65, and 1.82 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.6 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [6]

证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 2024 年 10 月 30 日投资者关系活动记录表 编号：T2024-013 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 投资者关系 活动类别 | \n□媒体采访 \n□新闻发布会 □路演活动 \n 现场参观 □电话调研 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 \n□业绩说明会 | | 调 研时间 / ...