要点 事件： 25H1，公司实现收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润分别为 106/2.9/2.4 亿元， 同比+2%/-33%/+1%；其中 25Q2 实现收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润分别为 57/1.5/1.2 亿元，同比-3%/-33%/-17%。 点评： 产销量同比两位数增长。25H1 产量 236 万吨（同比+12%），判断 25H1 产销 率约为 95%，销量 224 万吨（同比+11%）；其中 25Q2 产量 131 万吨（同比 +11%），产销率 95%，销量 125 万吨（同比+9%）。 吨盈利承压，吨扣非净利同环比下降。25H1，钢结构业务吨毛利 370 元/吨（同 比-65 元）；25Q2 吨毛利 362 元/吨（同比-79 元，环比-19 元）。或由于：1） 市场竞争加剧；2）订单结构变化，小单占比提升；3）智能化改造增加固定资 产吨折旧（折旧同比+13%，高于销量增速）。25H1，吨扣非 106 元/吨（同比 -11 元）；25Q2 吨扣非 99 元/吨（同比-31 元，环比-16 元），主要来自于吨毛 利同比下降（吨期间费用基本持平）。 2025 年 8 月 26 日 公司研究 产销量保持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in operational performance in 25H1, with revenue of 10.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 33% due to a significant drop in non-recurring gains [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, which is anticipated to lead to a new round of supply-side reforms in the steel industry, helping to stabilize and potentially increase steel prices [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 25H1, the company reported a gross margin of 10.0%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in steel prices [2]. - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 200 million yuan in 25H1, which is an increase in outflow compared to the previous year, attributed to increased procurement of steel materials [2]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 640 million, 780 million, and 920 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -17%, +21%, and +18% [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company’s market share is expected to continue to rise, supported by a slight increase in new signed orders and production growth despite a weak macro demand environment [1][3]. - The report highlights that if steel prices increase by 3%, 5%, or 10%, the company's net profit per ton could increase by 15, 25, or 50 yuan respectively, significantly impacting overall profitability [3].

Core Insights - The central government has clarified its stance on addressing "involution" competition, transitioning from policy formulation to implementation since the second half of 2024 [1][2] - In July 2025, 33 construction-related central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises issued a "Proposal" advocating for the "Four No's" principle: no scale assembly, no blind expansion, no excessive debt, and no shell structures, aiming to resist "involution" competition and shift focus from price competition to value competition [1][2] Construction Industry Analysis - The report emphasizes the shift from price competition to value competition in the construction industry, driven by the "anti-involution" policy [2] - The analysis categorizes the construction industry into three major segments: central state-owned enterprise blue chips, international engineering, and steel structure [2] Central State-Owned Enterprises - For traditional undervalued central state-owned enterprise blue chips, the focus should be on three dimensions: dividend capability, price elasticity, and technological transformation [3] - In Q1 2025, the market share of nine major construction central enterprises increased to 59.89%, indicating strong order acquisition capabilities [3] - Companies with strong dividend capabilities, such as China State Construction and Sichuan Road and Bridge, are recommended [3] International Engineering Sector - The international engineering sector benefits from price elasticity, particularly with rising expectations for resource prices [4] - North China International, which has a significant coal sales volume, is highlighted for its potential profit contributions from coal business in 2026 [4] Steel and Cement Industries - The steel and cement industries are expected to improve profitability through the exit of outdated capacities and product structure upgrades [5] - Companies like China National Materials and China Steel International are recommended, with China Aluminum International suggested for attention [5] Steel Structure Sector - The steel structure sector is divided into manufacturing and installation segments, with rising steel prices benefiting manufacturing companies like Honglu Steel Structure [6] - The transition towards intelligent construction and green building is expected to enhance the competitive advantages of leading companies in the installation segment, such as Jinggong Steel Structure and Jianghe Group [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy is transitioning from policy definition to implementation, with a focus on shifting from "price competition" to "value competition" in the construction industry [14][15] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from improved cash flow and report quality due to the optimization of supply and demand dynamics, which will enhance the dividend capacity of state-owned enterprises [15][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology transformation and the development of non-traditional construction businesses, such as smart cities and smart construction, as key paths for traditional construction companies [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Traditional Low-Valuation State-Owned Enterprises - The market share of nine major state-owned construction enterprises has increased from 30.45% in 2016 to 48.9% in 2024, with a further rise to 59.89% in Q1 2025, indicating strong order acquisition capabilities [15][21] - The report highlights three dimensions for understanding the implications of "anti-involution": dividend capacity, price elasticity, and technology transformation [2][14] - Companies with strong dividend capabilities, such as China State Construction and Sichuan Road and Bridge, are recommended [2][24] 2. International Engineering Sector - The international engineering sector is expected to benefit from price elasticity due to rising expectations for resource prices, particularly in coal [3][29] - The report suggests that improvements in downstream profitability and high-quality development in industries like steel and cement will drive demand for engineering companies [3][29] 3. Steel Structure Sector - The steel structure sector is divided into manufacturing and installation, with rising steel prices benefiting manufacturing companies like Honglu Steel Construction [4][29] - The transition towards intelligent and green construction is expected to enhance the competitive advantages of leading companies in the steel structure installation segment [4][29] - Companies like Jianghe Group and Jinggong Steel Construction are highlighted for their significant growth in overseas orders [4][29] 4. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their performance and valuation metrics, including China State Construction, China Chemical, and Honglu Steel Construction, all of which have favorable P/E ratios and dividend yields [9][25][27]

乐至奋安新型高端铝合金型材西南基地，工作人员正在生产线上忙碌。田姣 摄 ●铁路机车产品产量同比增长130.8% 近日，资阳市2025年经济"半年报"出炉。今年上半年，全市地区生产总值530.1亿元，同比增长7.0%。其中， 工业对经济增长的支撑作用尤为突出：1月—6月，资阳规模以上工业增加值同比增长15.8%，增速高于全省平均 水平8.5个百分点，位列全省第4。 规模以上工业增加值的增长速度，是判断短期工业经济运行走势的重要指标。资阳上半年规模以上工业增加 值增速创下近五年同期最好成绩。工业不断攀高,资阳底气与动力何来？ A 强化市场开拓产品产量增长强劲 看整体 ●规模以上工业增加值同比增长15.8% ●增速高于全省平均水平8.5个百分点，位列全省第4 看行业 ●纺织服装、服饰业同比增长70.4%，通用设备制造业增长56.2%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长 108.3%，燃气生产和供应业增长29.6% 8月4日，在中车资阳机车有限公司的总装车间，几节灰蓝色的内燃机车正在进行升级改造，完成后将运往土 库曼斯坦重新投运；厂房外的轨道上，一辆白蓝黄相间的CKD6S型机车正在调试，即将出口哈萨克斯坦。 今年， ...

Group 1 - The market trend has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward phase in the second half of the year, potentially surpassing the peak in the second half of 2024 [4] - The U.S. is accelerating the Section 232 investigation, with a high likelihood of imposing tariffs on copper, while the feasibility of drug tariffs remains low; results are expected to be announced in the second half of the year [10] - The net profit forecast for Qiu Tai Technology has been raised by 20%/31%/40% for 2025/2026/2027, driven by the strong growth in IoT module shipments and product specification upgrades [14] Group 2 - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71%, supported by rising prices and reduced processing costs [20] - Juhua Co. anticipates significant profit growth due to the ongoing high demand for refrigerants, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards by 11%/10%/8% [24] - Miao Ke Lan Duo expects a net profit of 120 million to 145 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68.1% to 103.1%, driven by strong market positioning in cheese [31] Group 3 - Tesla's global delivery volume showed a recovery in Q2 2025, while domestic new energy vehicle brands are intensifying competition, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior [36] - China Hongqiao expects a net profit increase of approximately 35% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 12.36 billion yuan, supported by stable aluminum prices and resource availability [42] - Honglu Steel Structure reported double-digit growth in order volume and production in Q2 2025, with ongoing improvements in smart manufacturing processes enhancing competitive advantages [46]

长江精工钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 | 股票简称：精工钢构 | 股票代码：600496 | 编号：临 2025-081 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债简称：精工转债 | 转债代码：110086 | | 注：公司目前无已签订尚未执行的重大项目。本公告所涉及数据尾数差异系四舍五入 造成。 长江精工钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第二季度经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 一、业务签约及销量情况 2025 年 1-6 月，公司（包括控股子公司）共新签合同 360 项，累计合同金额 125.1 亿元，同比增长 2.2%。2025 年 4-6 月，公司（包括控股子公司）共新签合 同 191 项，累计合同金额 63.7 亿元，同比增长 3.7%。 2025 年 1-6 月，公司钢结构销量 83.5 万吨，同比增长 47.0%，其中 4-6 月钢 结构销量 45.0 万吨，同比增长 63.6%。 二、具体业务发展情况 单位：亿元 | | | | 2025 年 | 1-6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in steel structure sales for the first half of 2025, indicating strong growth in demand and operational performance [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's steel structure sales reached 835,000 tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.0% [1] - For the period from April to June 2025, steel structure sales amounted to 450,000 tons, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 63.6% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has experienced a slight increase in new orders in Q2 2025, with a total of 14.38 billion yuan in new contracts signed, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.2%. The production volume continued to show double-digit growth, with a total output of 2.3625 million tons in H1 2025, up 12.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in steel prices due to recent policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the industry, which may lead to a new round of supply-side reforms. This could enhance the company's profitability through inventory revaluation and improved project signing rates [3]. - The implementation of nearly 2000 welding robots is anticipated to significantly reduce costs and increase production capacity, potentially leading to a substantial increase in net profit [3]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - In Q2 2025, the company signed 73.3 billion yuan in new orders, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year. The average price of large orders fell by approximately 5% to 5167 yuan per ton due to declining steel prices [2]. - The company achieved a production volume of 1.3134 million tons in Q2 2025, marking a 10.6% increase year-on-year, maintaining a double-digit growth trend [1]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 870 million yuan, 1.04 billion yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 20%, and 20% [4]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 14, 12, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its market share and entering overseas markets, which is expected to contribute to its order growth and production capacity [1]. - The anticipated increase in steel prices could lead to a significant rise in the company's net profit, with estimates suggesting an increase of 0.7 billion yuan to 2.2 billion yuan depending on the price fluctuations [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][23]. Core Views - The company has seen a year-on-year increase in both order volume and processing volume, highlighting investment opportunities in the steel structure sector at a relatively low point [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the supply-side reforms in the steel industry, which may lead to improved profitability as steel prices rise [3]. - The company is focusing on intelligent transformation and has invested in advanced manufacturing technologies, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Orders and Production - In the first half of 2025, the company signed new orders totaling 14.38 billion, a slight increase of 0.17% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, new orders amounted to 7.328 billion, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year. The steel structure production for the first half of 2025 reached 2.3625 million tons, up 12.19% year-on-year, with Q2 production at 1.3134 million tons, an increase of 10.56% year-on-year [1][2]. Pricing and Market Trends - The company has seen an increase in the number of large contracts (over 10,000 tons) from 6 in Q2 2021 to 18 in Q2 2025. The average price per ton for new orders in Q2 2025 ranged from 4,535 to 8,494 yuan, indicating a 5.11% increase in average price compared to Q2 2024 [2]. - Steel prices have stabilized between 3,160 and 3,370 yuan per ton, with an average of 3,233 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.2% [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 868.65 million, 1,015.91 million, and 1,222.03 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.14, 12.09, and 10.05 [5][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 21,514.36 million in 2024 to 33,629.99 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.66% [5]. Intelligent Transformation - The company has established a dedicated research team for intelligent manufacturing and has invested in various advanced production technologies, including automated cutting and welding equipment, which are expected to enhance production efficiency [4].