Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has faced operational pressure over the past 24 years, but there has been an improvement in profit per ton in Q1 2025 compared to the previous quarter [1][11] - The company’s total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 21.5 billion and 770 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 35% [5][11] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, while net profit decreased by 33% [5][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company’s steel structure business generated revenue of 20.8 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 4.33 million tons, up 2% [6] - The average price per ton was 4,803 yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year due to falling steel prices [6] - The gross profit margin for the steel structure business was 17.1 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of 394 yuan, down 18% [6] Operational Performance - The company signed new orders worth 28.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, with a production volume of 4.51 million tons [6] - The production and sales rate was 96.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced 1.05 million tons, with a sales volume of approximately 1 million tons [10] - The gross profit per ton was 475 yuan, down 57% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in steel prices [10] - The company reported a significant reduction in R&D expenses, indicating a potential peak in the intensity of its smart transformation efforts [10] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.03 billion yuan and 1.15 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 21% and 30% [11] - The report anticipates improvements in profitability as the company’s smart transformation progresses [11] Market Position - The company’s stock price has experienced a significant correction, and the improvement in ton profit in Q1 2025 supports the "Buy" rating [11]

Core Viewpoint - Honglu Steel Structure (002541.SZ) reported its Q1 2025 financial results, highlighting significant institutional investor activity and changes in public fund holdings [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Holdings - As of April 30, 2025, 49 institutional investors disclosed holdings in Honglu Steel Structure A-shares, totaling 145 million shares, which represents 20.96% of the company's total equity [1]. - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 13.92% of the shares, with a decrease of 0.82 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1]. Group 2: Public Fund Activity - In the current period, 10 public funds increased their holdings, with a total increase rate of 0.89%, including funds like Zhonggeng Value Leadership Mixed and Zhonggeng Value Quality One-Year Holding Mixed [2]. - Conversely, 20 public funds reduced their holdings, with a total decrease rate of 1.46%, including funds such as Invesco Great Wall China Return Mixed A and Zhonggeng Small Cap Value Stock [2]. - Eight new public funds were disclosed this period, while 133 public funds were not disclosed compared to the previous quarter [2]. Group 3: Foreign Investor Attitude - The only foreign institution that did not disclose holdings in the current period was Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][19]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 8.78% in Q1 2025, achieving a revenue of 4.815 billion [1]. - The non-recurring profit has significantly improved, with a non-recurring net profit of 115 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.27% [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from its investments in automation and smart technology, with projections for net profit reaching 1.222 billion by 2027 [4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 137 million, a decrease of 32.78% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 115 million, marking a 31.27% increase [1]. - The production volume of steel structure products increased by 14.29% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.049 million tons in Q1 2025 [2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 9.83%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, with a per-ton gross profit of 473 yuan [2]. Cost Management - The company effectively managed its period expenses, achieving a period expense ratio of 6.21%, down 0.97 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company has seen a reduction in accounts receivable, decreasing by 520 million compared to the end of 2024, indicating improved cash flow management [3]. R&D and Automation - The company has made significant strides in automation, deploying nearly 2,000 welding robots across its production bases since 2023, which is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4]. - R&D expenses in Q1 2025 decreased to 125 million, down 20.1% year-on-year, contributing to the improvement in per-ton net profit [2]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for the company are expected to grow from 21.514 billion in 2024 to 33.630 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.66% [5]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected at 868.65 million, with a year-on-year growth of 12.48% [5].

证券研究报告 鸿路钢构 (002541 CH) Q1 吨净利迎来改善拐点 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 建筑施工 | 公司发布一季报：2025Q1 实现营收 48 亿元，同比+8.78%，归母净利 1.37 亿元，同比-32.78%，扣非净利 1.15 亿元，同比+31.27%。我们认为公司 在经过两年智能化改造投入后，25 年有望迎来资本开支影响减弱、产能利 用率恢复爬坡趋势、机器人应用降本增效阶段。公司 25Q1 新签订单测算量 137 万吨，同比+13.9%，实现产量 104.91 万吨，同比+14.3%，吨净利 109 元/吨，同比提升 14 元/吨，环比提升 10 元/吨，盈利能力连续 7 个季度同比 下滑以来首次迎来改善拐点，维持"买入"评级。 25Q1 研发费用减少，吨净利同、环比提升 25Q1 公司毛利率为 9.83%，同比-0.76pct，环比-0.93pct，吨毛利同比减少 60 元/吨，环比减少 29 元/吨，显示成本端受钢价持续下滑的影响有所降低。 我 们 测 算 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） 25Q1 扣非业绩超预期，盈利拐点已现 25Q1 营收增速拐头向上，扣非业绩超预期。公司 25Q1 实现营收 48.2 亿 元，同增 8.8%，结束连续 4 个季度的收入下滑；实现扣非后归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比大幅增长 31%，超市场预期，主因 Q1 研发费用率下降； 实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同降 33%，同比下滑主因上年同期确认较多的 政府补助。25Q1 以产量计算的吨扣非后净利 109 元，同比/环比提升 14/10 元，单吨盈利能力已实现触底回升。公司 25Q1 新签订单同增 1.3%，历 经 4 个季度同比下滑后增速回正；钢结构产量同增 14.3%显著加速，结束 连续 4 个季度产量微增的状态。整体看公司 25Q1 订单、产量、营收、扣 非吨净利均出现向上拐点，后续公司业绩有望持续向上修复。 毛利率下降，费用率降低，钢材采购增多致 Q1 现金流净流出。25Q1 公 司毛利率 9.83%，YoY-0.76 个 pct，主因钢结构售价跟随钢价下行（25Q1 热轧卷板日均价格 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） 25Q1 扣非业绩超预期，盈利拐点已现 25Q1 营收增速拐头向上，扣非业绩超预期。公司 25Q1 实现营收 48.2 亿 元，同增 8.8%，结束连续 4 个季度的收入下滑；实现扣非后归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比大幅增长 31%，超市场预期，主因 Q1 研发费用率下降； 实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同降 33%，同比下滑主因上年同期确认较多的 政府补助。25Q1 以产量计算的吨扣非后净利 109 元，同比/环比提升 14/10 元，单吨盈利能力已实现触底回升。公司 25Q1 新签订单同增 1.3%，历 经 4 个季度同比下滑后增速回正；钢结构产量同增 14.3%显著加速，结束 连续 4 个季度产量微增的状态。整体看公司 25Q1 订单、产量、营收、扣 非吨净利均出现向上拐点，后续公司业绩有望持续向上修复。 股价走势 -50% -36% -22% -8% 6% 20% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 鸿路钢构 沪深300 毛利率下降，费用率降低，钢材采购增 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The recent volatility in the US Treasury market is largely attributed to the upcoming June maturity, which may be overestimated in terms of its impact on financial markets [2] - In the short term, the supply pressure from maturing US Treasuries is expected to be limited, with a more significant focus on the debt ceiling adjustments anticipated in Q3 [2] - Long-term demand for US Treasuries may face a downward trend, with potential alternatives including European and Japanese bonds, as well as gold [2] Group 2: Technology Sector - The report discusses India's potential as the next manufacturing hub for Apple, highlighting the competitive tariff advantages for Indian exports compared to China [4] - Apple theoretically has the capacity to produce the required number of iPhones in India, but initial production will still rely on Chinese exports due to current limitations [4] - The localization of components in India is still in its early stages, with significant reliance on supply chains from other Asian countries for critical parts [4] Group 3: Energy and New Energy - The lithium battery production forecast for May shows a slight decline in overall production, primarily due to the cancellation of mandatory storage policies and the impact of US tariffs on exports [5] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the lithium battery industry remains positive, driven by new vehicle models and technologies [5] - Recent power outages in Spain, Portugal, and southern France have underscored the need for investment in grid upgrades and DC grid technology, presenting opportunities for Chinese power equipment companies [6] Group 4: Media and Publishing - Phoenix Media reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 3.226 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline, but a significant increase in net profit due to continued tax incentives [7] - The company maintains a stable core business and is rated as a "buy" based on its solid performance and favorable tax policies [7] Group 5: Financial Sector - The report indicates that the China Construction Bank's Q1 2025 net profit and revenue showed slight year-over-year changes, with a focus on asset quality and credit expansion [9] - The bank's diversified income sources and stable operations support a "buy" rating [9] Group 6: Consumer Goods - The report highlights the strong performance of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with Q1 revenues showing a significant year-over-year increase, driven by stable oil and gas production [20] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to its robust operational performance and project advancements [20] Group 7: Real Estate - The report notes that China Petroleum's Q1 2025 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, attributed to increased natural gas production and sales [34] - The company is rated as "increase" based on its strong performance and potential for further growth in the natural gas sector [34]

| 证券代码:002541 | 证券简称:鸿路钢构 | 公告编号:2025-030 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码:128134 | 债券简称:鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构(集团)股份有限公司 关于不向下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 1、证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 2、债券代码：128134 债券简称：鸿路转债 3、转股价格：人民币 32.44 元/股 2、可转换公司债券上市情况 经深圳证券交易所"深证上[2020]971号"文同意，公司本次公开发行的可 转换公司债券于2020年11月2日在深圳证券交易所挂牌交易，债券简称"鸿路转 债"，债券代码"128134"。 特别提示 4、转股期限：2021 年 4 月 15 日至 2026 年 10 月 8 日 5、自 2025 年 4 月 9 日至 2025 年 4 月 29 日期间，公司股票已有十五个交易 日的收盘价低于当期转股价格的 85%（即 32.44 元/股）的情形，已触发"鸿路 转债"转股价格的向下修正条款。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [12]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth and address risks in key areas, signaling positive stability for the real estate chain [2][9]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of high-quality development to respond to external uncertainties, particularly in the context of international trade tensions, such as the escalating US-China tariff situation [8][9]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to receive policy support as a key driver for economic growth, with a focus on enhancing funding and implementing new policies [10][11]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policies - The report outlines the need for consistent policy orientation, utilizing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, including the issuance of special bonds and maintaining liquidity to support the real economy [9][10]. Real Estate Market - The report indicates that real estate development investment in March 2025 was CNY 0.9 trillion, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with sales and new construction areas also showing declines [62][63]. Infrastructure Investment - In March 2025, narrow infrastructure investment reached CNY 1.9 trillion, up 5.9% year-on-year, while broad infrastructure investment was CNY 2.6 trillion, reflecting a 10.7% increase [54][55]. Sector Performance - The construction sector is advised to focus on the dual themes of stabilizing growth and the "Belt and Road" initiative, with recommendations for companies with high overseas exposure to benefit from increasing international orders [11][12].

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2025-031 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 第六届董事会第二十一次会议决议的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第六届董事会第二十一 次会议于 2025 年 4 月 20 日以送达方式发出，并于 2025 年 4 月 29 日在公司会议室以现场 的方式召开。会议应出席董事 5 人，实际出席董事 5 人，会议由董事长万胜平先生主持， 公司全体监事、高级管理人员列席了会议。本次会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》和《公 司章程》的有关规定，出席会议的董事以书面表决的方式通过了以下决议，决议合法有效。 公司 2025 年第一季度报告全文刊登在《中国证券报》、《证券时报》、《上海证券报》、 《证券日报》和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）。 （二）会议以 5 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权 ...