Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longbai Group is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on its performance in 2024 but is actively advancing its mining development and internationalization of titanium dioxide [1] - The company reported a revenue of 27.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.79% [5] - The report highlights the potential for capacity expansion in the mining sector, despite challenges such as increased impairment losses and financial expenses [5] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: Net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, EPS of 1.48 yuan, PE ratio of 11.4 times - 2026: Net profit of 4.69 billion yuan, EPS of 1.96 yuan, PE ratio of 8.6 times - 2027: Net profit of 5.29 billion yuan, EPS of 2.21 yuan, PE ratio of 7.6 times [5][6] - The company’s titanium dioxide production in 2024 was 1.2955 million tons, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, with sales of 1.2545 million tons, up 8.25% year-on-year [5] - The average prices for titanium concentrate and titanium dioxide in 2024 were 2,181 yuan/ton and 15,572 yuan/ton, respectively [5] Market Performance - The current stock price is 16.39 yuan, with a market capitalization of 39.111 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 32.580 billion yuan [2] - The stock has seen a turnover rate of 50.95% over the past three months [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longbai Group is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on its performance in 2024 but is actively advancing its mining development and internationalization of titanium dioxide [1] - The company reported a revenue of 27.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.79% [5] - The report highlights the potential for capacity expansion in the mining sector and the stability of profitability from titanium concentrate and titanium dioxide [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company produced 1.2955 million tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, and sold 1.2545 million tons, an increase of 8.25% year-on-year [5] - The average prices for titanium concentrate, titanium dioxide, and sponge titanium in 2024 were 2,181 yuan/ton, 15,572 yuan/ton, and 48,200 yuan/ton, respectively [5] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.52 billion yuan, 4.69 billion yuan, and 5.29 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.48 yuan, 1.96 yuan, and 2.21 yuan [5][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its overseas market share and establishing overseas production bases to achieve a full-process internationalization from raw materials to sales [5] - Longbai Group is focusing on two key mining projects: the joint development of the Hongge North Mining Area and the development of the Xujia Gou Iron Mine, which are expected to sustain growth in mining capacity [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 27.54 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.8% to 2.17 billion yuan, with the net profit excluding non-recurring items also down by 32.8% to 2.10 billion yuan [6][10]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year but recovering from a negative quarter-on-quarter result [6][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling 1.19 billion yuan. Additionally, the chairman proposed a share buyback plan with a total fund of no less than 300 million yuan and no more than 500 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [6][10]. Financial Performance - The company’s titanium dioxide sales reached 1.2545 million tons in 2024, an increase of 8.25% year-on-year, while sponge titanium sales rose by 42.57% to 66,900 tons. However, iron ore sales fell by 30.80% to 3.0022 million tons [10]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.48 billion yuan, 3.38 billion yuan, and 4.08 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10]. Market Strategy - The company is actively pursuing an overseas expansion strategy, adjusting its export focus towards emerging markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia due to anti-dumping investigations affecting its international market space [10]. - The company aims to enhance its competitive strength by increasing its capital investment in its wholly-owned subsidiary, thereby supporting its external investments and business expansion [10]. Industry Outlook - The titanium dioxide industry is currently experiencing an imbalance in supply and demand, with prices showing slight fluctuations. However, the company anticipates a recovery in profitability due to increasing demand in sectors such as aerospace and medical [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][31] Core Views - The company is expected to see a decline in net profit for 2024, with a forecasted revenue of 27.51 billion yuan (up 2.8% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan (down 32.8% year-on-year). However, in the first quarter of 2025, the company is projected to turn a profit with a net profit of 690 million yuan (down 27.9% year-on-year, but up from a loss) [10][4] - The titanium dioxide market is experiencing increased supply, with domestic production expected to reach 4.67 million tons in 2024 (up 17% year-on-year). The average price for titanium dioxide is forecasted to decline, with an average of 15,526 yuan per ton in 2024 (down 2% year-on-year) [2][19] - The company is actively developing key projects to expand titanium concentrate production capacity, which is expected to support future growth despite current market pressures [3][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 27.51 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan, with a significant drop in net profit attributed to lower iron concentrate prices and underperformance in the new energy sector [10][4] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 7.05 billion yuan (down 3.2% year-on-year, up 6.1% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 690 million yuan (down 27.9% year-on-year, but turning profitable quarter-on-quarter) [10][4] Market Dynamics - The company’s titanium dioxide sales volume is expected to grow to 1.2545 million tons in 2024 (up 8% year-on-year), with international sales accounting for 57% of total sales [2][19] - The average price of titanium concentrate is projected to be 2,180 yuan per ton in 2024 (up 3% year-on-year), while iron ore prices are expected to decline [3][20] Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong position in the titanium dioxide industry, with an increasing self-sufficiency rate in titanium concentrate. However, increased competition and weak demand in some regions due to macroeconomic factors have led to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [4][31] - The revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 3.006 billion yuan and 3.894 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.26 yuan and 1.63 yuan [4][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong resilience as a market leader, with significant dividends reflecting management confidence [1] - The integrated advantages in the titanium dioxide sector support good profitability, although margins in iron and titanium products remain under pressure [2] - The industry landscape for titanium dioxide is expected to improve, with dividends and share buybacks showcasing the company's confidence [3] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to ongoing pressures in downstream demand, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 2.9 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.2 billion RMB respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 27.51 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.17 billion RMB, down 33% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a revenue of 7.05 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 690 million RMB, down 28% year-on-year [1][2] Product Performance - Titanium dioxide sales increased by 8.3% to 1.254 million tons in 2024, with revenue rising by 6.8% to 18.98 billion RMB, despite a 1.3% decrease in average price [2] - The company's gross margin for titanium dioxide improved by 2.8 percentage points to 31.4% due to integrated raw material advantages [2] Market Outlook - The price of titanium dioxide has seen slight increases, with the sulfuric acid method priced at 14,800 RMB/ton and the chloride method at 18,100 RMB/ton as of April 18 [3] - The company is expanding its integrated raw material advantages through ongoing development projects, which are expected to maintain a low-cost competitive edge in the medium to long term [3] Valuation and Estimates - The target price for the company is set at 19.20 RMB, based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a strong market position despite downward adjustments in profit forecasts [4][6] - The company’s estimated EPS for 2025 is projected at 1.20 RMB, with a downward revision from previous estimates [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2024 performance fell short of expectations, while 1Q25 results slightly exceeded market expectations, primarily driven by better sales of titanium dioxide products [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and a net profit of 2.169 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.91 yuan, which represents a decline of 32.79% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin in 4Q24 was 19%, showing a significant decline of 8.6 percentage points year-on-year and 6.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 3.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.54% year-on-year [1]. - In 1Q25, revenue was 7.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.21%, with a net profit of 686 million yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.29 yuan, down 27.9% year-on-year [3]. Product Performance - Titanium dioxide revenue in 2024 grew by 6.82% to 18.98 billion yuan, with sales volume increasing by 8.25% to 1.255 million tons, despite a 1.3% decline in average price to 15,130 yuan per ton [2]. - The gross margin for titanium dioxide improved by 2.83 percentage points to 31.35% [2]. - Revenue from iron products decreased by 24.5% to 1.942 billion yuan, with sales volume down 30.8% to 3 million tons, leading to a gross margin decline of 8.34 percentage points to 40.81% [2]. - Sponge titanium revenue increased by 16.7% to 2.65 billion yuan, with sales volume up 42.6% to 66,900 tons, but the price fell by 18% to 39,600 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross margin drop of 14.77 percentage points to 3.11% [2]. Development Trends - The company has a relative advantage in titanium dioxide exports, particularly in regions with fast-growing demand such as India and Brazil, due to the lowest anti-dumping tax rate among domestic companies [4]. - The joint development of the Hongge North Mine and the Xujia Gou Iron Mine is ongoing, with expectations for new titanium ore capacity to gradually release by 2026, which will drive profit growth [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to declining gross margins for titanium dioxide and sponge titanium products, the profit forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 26% to 2.8 billion yuan, with a 2026 profit forecast of 4.24 billion yuan [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3x for 2025 and 9.5x for 2026, with a target price of 23 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 36% [5].

Core Insights - Longbai Group reported a revenue of 27.513 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.169 billion yuan, with basic earnings per share of 0.91 yuan [2] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.060 billion yuan and a net profit of 686 million yuan [2] Group 1: Market Position and Production - Longbai Group is a leading diversified enterprise focused on the research, manufacturing, and integration of new materials such as titanium, zirconium, and lithium, with a production capacity of 1.51 million tons of titanium dioxide and 80,000 tons of sponge titanium, ranking first globally [3] - The company is the largest producer of titanium dioxide and has both sulfate and chloride process capabilities, with its production base in Jiaozuo, Henan, being the largest single-site titanium dioxide production facility globally [3][4] - In 2024, Longbai Group produced 1.2955 million tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 8.74%, and sold 1.2545 million tons, with domestic sales accounting for 42.91% and international sales for 57.09% [4] Group 2: R&D and Innovation - The company increased its R&D investment, achieving a new high in R&D intensity, focusing on original innovation and key technology development to enhance its comprehensive technical strength [5] - Longbai Group is committed to creating a differentiated competitive advantage in the titanium industry, with ongoing efforts in product development, raw material substitution, and cost control [6] - The company holds over 1,270 patents, including more than 410 invention patents, and has been recognized for its technological advancements and contributions to national and industry standards [6] Group 3: Dividend Policy - In 2024, Longbai Group distributed cash dividends totaling 2.144 billion yuan, representing 98.85% of its annual net profit, continuing a trend of substantial dividends in recent years [7] - The company plans to distribute additional cash dividends of 1.186 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a proposal for a share buyback of 300 million to 500 million yuan to support employee stock ownership plans [7]

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