本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong Securities India Private Limited (HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K. (HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公 司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), Haitong International Japan K.K. ("HTIJKK"), Haitong International Secu ...

[Table_Stock] 盐津铺子（002847） 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Author] 分析师: 梁瑞 Tel: 021-53686409 E-mail: liangrui@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870523110001 联系人: 赖思琪 Tel: 021-53686180 E-mail: laisiqi@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870122080016 [Table_BaseInfo] 基本数据 最新收盘价（元） 75.67 12mth A 股价格区间（元） 61.45- 137.61 总股本（百万股） 196.06 无限售 A 股/总股本 88.04% 流通市值（亿元） 130.61 公 司 点 评 躬身入局延伸产业链， 全渠道赋能核心品类高速增长 ——盐津铺子 2023 年年报点评 [Table_Rating] 买入（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 投资摘要 事件概述 3月26日，盐津铺子发布2023年年报及2024年一季度业绩预告。2023 年，公司实现营业收入41.15亿元，同比+42.22%；归母净利润5.06亿 元，同比+67.76%； ...

核心观点 高景气延续，品类渠道演绎逻辑有望见长 ⚫ 事件：公司发布 2023 年报，公司 23 年实现营收 41.15 亿元/yoy+42.22%，归母净利润 5.06 亿/yoy+67.76%，扣非归母净利润 4.76 亿/yoy+72.84%；单 Q4 实现营收 11.11 亿 /yoy+20.22%，归母净利润为 1.10 亿/yoy+32.64%，扣非归母净利 1.00 亿/yoy+21.23%。公 司发布 2024 年第一季度业绩预告，24Q1 预计实现归母净利润 1.5-1.7 亿元/yoy+34.48%- 52.41%，扣非归母净利润 1.3-1.5 亿元/yoy+32.18%-52.51%。 ⚫ 产品渠道双轮驱动，收入高景气持续。1）分产品看，公司 23 年辣卤/休闲烘焙/深海零食/薯类 零食/蛋类零食/果干坚果/蒟蒻果冻布丁/其他分别实现营收 14.82/6.27/6.19/3.60/3.19/2.67/2.17/2.25 亿元， yoy+56.71%/12.75%/10.65%/29.98%/594.52%/37.19%/125.67%/2.73%，辣卤、蛋类、蒟蒻 表现亮眼；2）分渠道看 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [12]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.115 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-over-year increase of 42.22%, and a net profit of 506 million yuan, up 67.76% year-over-year [3][24]. - The company focuses on seven core product categories and continues to enhance its channel penetration and product strength, transitioning from a "product + channel" growth strategy to a "channel-driven, product-leading" approach [4][14]. - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, with projections of 5.256 billion yuan in 2024, 6.652 billion yuan in 2025, and 8.356 billion yuan in 2026 [5][15]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a gross profit margin of 33.5%, with a slight decrease from the previous year [5][24]. - The net profit margin improved to 12.3% in 2023, reflecting a strong performance despite a slight decline in gross margin [28]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 2.58 yuan, with forecasts of 3.38 yuan in 2024 and 4.50 yuan in 2025 [5][28]. Product and Channel Performance - The company’s product categories, including leisure konjac products and meat products, saw significant growth, with increases of 84.95% and 39.99% respectively [25]. - The revenue breakdown by channel in 2023 showed that the distribution channel accounted for 71.74% of total revenue, while e-commerce contributed 20.13% [25]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation range of 25-30 times for 2024, indicating a reasonable value range of 84.50 to 101.40 yuan per share [15]. - The company’s market performance is compared to peers, with a focus on maintaining competitive positioning within the industry [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [11][23]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in 2023, achieving a revenue of 4.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 510 million yuan, up 67.8% year-on-year [11][12]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth, with a forecasted net profit for Q1 2024 between 150 million and 170 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.5% to 52.4% [11][12]. - The company has shown robust growth across multiple product categories, with significant increases in sales for spicy snacks, jelly products, and egg snacks [12]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year [11][12]. - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was 31.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 9.9%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][11]. - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate continued growth, with net profits projected to reach 690 million yuan in 2024, 880 million yuan in 2025, and 1.17 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.9%, 28.3%, and 32.1% respectively [11][15]. Product Category Performance - The company’s seven core product categories showed strong revenue growth in 2023, with spicy snacks generating 1.48 billion yuan (up 56.7%), jelly products at 220 million yuan (up 125.7%), and egg snacks at 320 million yuan (up 594.5%) [12]. - The company is enhancing its channel coverage, focusing on key accounts, supermarkets, and convenience stores, while also leveraging social media platforms for marketing [12].

2023 年报&2024 一季报预告点评：全年圆满 收官，24Q1 延续亮眼表现 2024 年 03 月 29 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 供应链布局+生产效率提升，公司盈利能力进入稳健提升通道。公司 2023 年全年归母净利率 12.29%，同比+1.87pct；剔除股权激励后的归母 净利率为 13.72%，同比+1.78pct，盈利能力显著提升。2023 年毛利率 33.54%，销售费用率 12.53%，毛销差 21.01%，毛销差同比+2.09pct，毛 销差提升考虑系公司部分原材料价格回落+深耕供应链+生产自动化提 升共同作用的结果，同时高效的公司组织协同能力保障了公司各个渠道 都 有 较 好 的 盈 利 水 平 。 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 为 4.44%/1.94%/0.40%，同比-0.08/-0.63/-0.09pct。综合看，公司注重人才激 励，通过多次股权激励，叠加此次对电商子公司的股权收购，提升团队 积极性，组织管理能力的不断提升为公司持续发展带来坚实保障。 2023Q4 公司归母净利率为 9.90%，同比+0.93 ...

2024 年 03 月 27 日 公司点评 买入/维持 盐津铺子(002847) 目标价: 87.5 昨收盘:68.79 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company has demonstrated outstanding comprehensive operational capabilities, focusing on core categories and integrating the upstream and downstream supply chain, which is expected to maintain rapid growth through continuous category expansion [10][16] - The company is deeply binding with the discount retail and Douyin channels, with ongoing channel reform benefits and a collaborative development strategy between online and offline sales [10][16] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 1.11 billion (up 20.2%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 110 million (up 32.6%) [1] - For the full year 2023, the company achieved revenue of 4.115 billion (up 42.2%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 506 million (up 67.8%) [1] - The forecast for Q1 2024 indicates a net profit attributable to the parent company between 150 million and 170 million (up 34.5% to 52.4%) [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 5.203 billion, 6.403 billion, and 7.850 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.4%, 23.1%, and 22.6% [11][16] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 675 million, 849 million, and 1.078 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 33.4%, 25.9%, and 27.0% respectively [11][16] Key Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 33.5%, with projections of 32.9% for 2024 and 32.7% for 2025 [11] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable at 35.0% for 2024 and decrease slightly to 34.0% in 2025 [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 22.11 for 2024, 17.57 for 2025, and 13.84 for 2026 [11][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrated impressive performance in 2023, with significant growth in core products such as quail eggs and spicy konjac, slightly exceeding expectations. The multi-category expansion and continuous channel development are expected to release further performance potential, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [5][8]. - The company’s 2023 total revenue reached 4.115 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.22%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 506 million yuan, up 67.76% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2024 is projected to achieve a net profit of 150-170 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.48%-52.41% [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 33.54% (down 1.18 percentage points year-on-year) and a net profit margin of 12.47% (up 2.04 percentage points year-on-year). The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a gross margin of 31.06% and a net profit margin of 9.89% [4][5]. - The company’s operating expenses were effectively controlled, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 12.53% (down 3.27 percentage points), 4.44% (down 0.08 percentage points), 1.94% (down 0.63 percentage points), and 0.40% (up 0.09 percentage points) respectively [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from direct supermarkets, distribution channels, and e-commerce channels in 2023 was 334 million yuan, 2.952 billion yuan, and 828 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -10.03%, +40.35%, and +98.04% respectively. The proportions were 8.13%, 71.74%, and 20.13% [4][5]. - The company’s core products, including spicy konjac and quail eggs, showed remarkable growth, with revenue from spicy snacks, baked snacks, deep-sea snacks, potato snacks, egg snacks, dried fruits and nuts, and konjac pudding reaching 1.482 billion yuan, 627 million yuan, 619 million yuan, 360 million yuan, 319 million yuan, 267 million yuan, and 217 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.71%, 12.75%, 10.65%, 29.98%, 594.52%, 37.19%, and 125.67% [9][11]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 706 million yuan, 920 million yuan, and 1.125 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.53%, 30.29%, and 22.30% respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 3.60 yuan, 4.69 yuan, and 5.74 yuan, with P/E ratios of 21.02, 16.13, and 13.19 respectively [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.115 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 506 million, up 67.76% year-on-year [14]. - The company focuses on seven major product categories, leveraging "channel penetration" and "category brand" strategies to achieve rapid growth. The product mix includes spicy snacks, deep-sea snacks, potato snacks, egg snacks, dried fruits and nuts, konjac jelly pudding, among others, with respective revenue contributions of 36%, 15%, 15%, 9%, 8%, 6%, and 5% [14]. - The company plans to continue focusing on the fast-growing snack channels and aims to enhance its product, channel, and brand momentum [15]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company's net profit margin was 12.3%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 33.54%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, attributed to changes in channel structure with a higher proportion of lower-margin snack retail and e-commerce channels [14]. - The company forecasts net profits of 670 million, 870 million, and 1.166 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22X, 17X, and 13X [15][16].