Market Overview - The leisure food sector experienced a decline of 0.52% on February 2, with Li Gao Food leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Youyou Food (603697) saw a significant increase of 9.99% in its closing price at 13.54, with a trading volume of 203,700 shares and a transaction value of 264 million [1] - Other notable gainers included: - Hao Xiang Ni (002582) up 5.00% at 13.44 with a transaction value of 811 million [1] - Zhi Zhi Food (002557) up 4.72% at 23.96 with a transaction value of 605 million [1] - Li Gao Food (300973) reported a decline of 6.36% in its closing price at 42.14, with a trading volume of 54,400 shares and a transaction value of 236 million [2] Capital Flow - The leisure food sector saw a net outflow of 66.88 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 98.06 million [2] - The capital flow for key stocks included: - Youyou Food with a net outflow of 50.25 million from main funds [3] - Three Squirrels (300783) had a net inflow of 25.34 million from main funds [3] - Salted Fish (002847) reported a net inflow of 13.69 million from main funds [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates multiple companies in the consumer staples sector as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - The consumer staples industry in January 2026 shows a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different segments [3][29]. - Among the eight key consumer industries tracked, four are experiencing positive growth (condiments, frozen food, soft drinks, and catering), while four are facing declines (high-end and above Baijiu, mass-market Baijiu, dairy products, and beer) [29]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (High-end and Above) - In January, the revenue for high-end Baijiu reached 47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.0%. The price pressure is significant, with expectations of over a 10% price drop throughout the year due to high inventory levels [11]. Baijiu (Mass-market and Below) - The mass-market Baijiu segment generated 22.9 billion yuan in January, down 3.0% year-on-year. Despite the decline, the segment shows resilience due to rigid demand and adaptability to consumption scenarios [13]. Beer - The beer industry reported revenues of 17 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year. The demand was affected by adverse weather and the delayed Spring Festival, leading to a cautious inventory approach by distributors [15]. Condiments - The condiment sector achieved revenues of 46.9 billion yuan in January, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The recovery in the catering channel and increased demand from small and medium-sized businesses are key drivers [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector's revenue was 43.5 billion yuan in January, down 3.3% year-on-year. The demand remains under pressure, but a potential recovery is anticipated in the coming months due to low base effects [19]. Frozen Food - The frozen food segment saw revenues of 14.99 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. The demand is supported by pre-Spring Festival stocking and favorable weather conditions [21]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry generated 96.2 billion yuan in January, with a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year. Increased promotional activities indicate heightened market competition [24]. Catering - The catering sector reported revenues of 16.2 billion yuan in January, up 2.5% year-on-year. The demand is gradually improving, particularly in small and medium-sized restaurants [26].

Group 1 - Since January 2026, the A-share market has seen a wave of shareholder return activities, with 8 listed companies announcing various ways to reward investors, including physical gifts, discount coupons, and service rights [1][2] - This trend reflects the maturation of the Chinese capital market, indicating a diversification in how listed companies reward investors and a shift towards emotional connection and long-term value recognition in investor relations management [1][3] - Companies like Chen Ke Ming Food Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Shou Xian Gu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. have initiated shareholder return activities, offering free products to shareholders based on their holdings [1][2] Group 2 - Other companies such as Quanjude Group, Furui Group, and Panda Dairy have also launched shareholder return activities in January, expressing gratitude to shareholders through various means [2] - The strategy of using products or services to reward shareholders enhances their perception of the company's value and fosters trust and long-term investment willingness, while also serving as a platform for brand promotion [2][3] - Over the past decade, more than 70 listed companies in the A-share market have conducted shareholder return activities, with over 30 companies doing so in 2025 across various sectors including consumer, cultural tourism, medical, and technology [2]

·底部机会与茶饮空间观点：相关研究报告指出价格带茶饮阿尔法成长空间广阔，为相关领域的研究分析提供了重 要参考方向，该研究报告的发布时间为2026年1月21日。 ·蜜雪大跌后核心观点阐述：a. 原材料成本变动对公司综合毛利率影响有限：柠檬、咖啡豆涨价，但其他原材料价 格同比回调，综合下来原材料因素对毛利率无太大影响，后续将做详细拆解；b. 2026年相较于2025年，因原材料 因素导致毛利率波动的概率较低；c. ·底部机会与茶饮空间观点：相关研究报告指出价格带茶饮阿尔法成长空间广阔，为相关领域的研究分析提供了重 要参考方向，该研究报告的发布时间为2026年1月21日。 ·蜜雪大跌后核心观点阐述：a. 原材料成本变动对公司综合毛利率影响有限：柠檬、咖啡豆涨价，但其他原材料价 格同比回调，综合下来原材料因素对毛利率无太大影响，后续将做详细拆解；b. 2026年相较于2025年，因原材料 因素导致毛利率波动的概率较低；c. 重申对蜜雪的长期看多观点。 ·竞争优势、业绩空间与估值分析：某企业在10元以下价格带市占率接近60%，具备极强成本优势、规模效应，供 应链壁垒深厚，竞争格局优势具备持续性。 ·其他原材料变动及综合 ...

1月27日，盐津铺子跌2.05%，成交额2.33亿元。两融数据显示，当日盐津铺子获融资买入额1796.97万 元，融资偿还1218.02万元，融资净买入578.94万元。截至1月27日，盐津铺子融资融券余额合计1.72亿 元。 融资方面，盐津铺子当日融资买入1796.97万元。当前融资余额1.71亿元，占流通市值的0.91%，融资余 额超过近一年80%分位水平，处于高位。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，盐津铺子食品股份有限公司位于湖南省长沙市雨花区长沙大道运达中央广场写字楼A座32 楼，成立日期2005年8月4日，上市日期2017年2月8日，公司主营业务涉及休闲食品科研、生产、销售和 农产品精深加工。主营业务收入构成为：辣卤零食44.91%，烘焙薯类15.61%，果干果冻14.56%，深海 零食12.33%，蛋类零食10.52%，其他2.06%。 截至9月30日，盐津铺子股东户数1.80万，较上期增加65.13%；人均流通股13663股，较上期减少 39.44%。2025年1月-9月，盐津铺子实现营业收入44.27亿元，同比增长14.67%；归母净利润6.05亿元， 同比增长22.63%。 分红方面，盐津铺子 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][11]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][11][15]. - The report highlights a diversified performance across sub-sectors, with beverages outperforming food and liquor categories [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a cumulative decline of 1.37% this week, with A-shares down 1.57% and H-shares up 1.21% [1]. - Key performers included companies like Hao Xiang Ni and Wei Zhi Xiang, with significant weekly gains [1]. 2. Sub-sector Insights - **Liquor**: - Moutai's price remains stable with an upward trend, and the focus is on sales momentum during the Spring Festival. Recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [2][11]. - **Beverages**: - The dairy segment is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a focus on leading companies like Yili. Recommendations include Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage [2][15]. - **Snacks**: - The report emphasizes strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly in konjac products, with companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong innovation [2][13]. - **Catering Supply Chain**: - The sector is entering a peak season for inventory and sales, with new standards for prepared dishes being solicited for public opinion [2][14]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on four main lines for investment: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven companies, and potential recovery in the liquor sector [3][11]. - Recommended stocks include Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Weidong, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have shown resilience and growth potential [17][19]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Key companies are projected to maintain strong earnings growth, with Moutai expected to achieve a stable performance and Yili showing significant recovery potential [4][15][19]. - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector [4][19].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Sector - **Key Insights**: The sector shows signs of consumption recovery despite a near-term property market downturn. Valuation remains attractive, approximately 1 standard deviation below 10-year averages, indicating that a consumption recovery is not yet priced in [2][21]. Consumer Staples - **Baijiu**: Anticipated demand support for mid-end baijiu due to easing alcohol bans and private consumption growth. Companies are expected to accelerate channel transformations for sustainable EPS growth [3][8]. - **Beer**: Premiumization continues through product diversification and in-home channel expansion, despite on-trade softness. CR Beer expects low-single-digit volume growth in 2025, with Heineken volumes projected to grow by 20% YoY [3][8]. - **Dairy**: Liquid milk sales are expected to recover modestly in 2026, driven by marketing and innovation, despite a weak 2025. Fresh milk shows resilience with double-digit growth [3][8]. - **Freshly-Made Beverages (FMB)**: Guming is expected to maintain steady SSSG in 2026 through category expansion and dine-in growth, despite the phase-out of delivery subsidies [3][8][19]. - **Condiments**: Sequentially improving demand is expected, with Haitian focusing on multi-product categories and Jonjee anticipating a cleaner 2026 after a weak 4Q25 [3][8]. Consumer Discretionary - **Home Appliances**: Companies like Midea and Haier expect higher overseas growth compared to domestic markets in 2026. Strategies include price hikes and operational efficiencies [4][10]. - **Jewelry**: Brands with unique designs may consolidate post-VAT reform. Laopu is expected to achieve strong sales growth due to increased focus on value-added services [4][10]. - **Restaurants**: Intense competition leads to divergent strategies, with some companies lowering prices while others upgrade offerings. DPC Dash is on track for expansion despite market uncertainties [4][10]. Stock Implications - **Most Preferred Stocks**: CR Beer, Guming, MIXUE, China Foods, YUM China, among others, are highlighted as preferred investments due to their growth potential [5]. - **Least Preferred Stocks**: Companies like Swellfun, Nongfu, and Gree are noted as less favorable due to various challenges [5]. Key Risks - Risks include demand recovery uncertainties, cost inflation or deflation, and changes in the competitive landscape. These factors could significantly impact the consumer sector's performance [21]. Additional Insights - **Pet Food**: The industry is shifting towards online sales, with over 85% of sales occurring digitally. Competition is intensifying, pushing brands towards innovation and product differentiation [13]. - **Snack Sector**: Rapid category diversification and channel restructuring are creating growth opportunities, particularly through snack discounters [9][12]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China consumer sector.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Market Performance - The leisure food sector increased by 0.73% compared to the previous trading day, with "Good Idea" leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] Individual Stock Performance - "Good Idea" (002582) closed at 16.18, up 6.03% with a trading volume of 698,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.123 billion yuan [1] - "Wancheng Group" (300972) closed at 219.50, up 3.51% with a transaction value of 601 million yuan [1] - "Lihigh Food" (300973) closed at 46.56, up 1.77% with a transaction value of 155 million yuan [1] - "Nanjiao Food" (605339) closed at 18.94, up 1.39% with a transaction value of 47.9721 million yuan [1] - "Purple Lotus Food" (603057) closed at 29.69, up 1.19% with a transaction value of 224 million yuan [1] - "Three Squirrels" (300783) closed at 24.50, up 0.82% with a transaction value of 221 million yuan [1] - "Maiqu'er" (002719) closed at 9.21, up 0.66% with a transaction value of 52.3833 million yuan [1] - "Liangpinpuzi" (603719) closed at 12.12, up 0.33% with a transaction value of 48.7241 million yuan [1] - "Guifaxiang" (002820) closed at 12.63, up 0.32% with a transaction value of 84.7587 million yuan [1] - "Ganyuan Food" (002991) closed at 62.82, up 0.05% with a transaction value of 59.5207 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The leisure food sector experienced a net outflow of 112 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 128 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows varying trends, with "Wancheng Group" having a net inflow of 9.9595 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - "Lihigh Food" had a net inflow of 295.83 million yuan from retail investors, while "Salted Fish" (002847) saw a net outflow of 2.19959 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector through reduced import costs, improved domestic demand, and increased foreign investment allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - The RMB has accelerated its appreciation, breaking the 7 mark offshore on December 25 and reaching 6.96 onshore by January 22, indicating enhanced economic momentum and improved export competitiveness [1]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles (May-November 2020 and November-December 2022), the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Cost, Demand, and Valuation Dynamics - Cost: The appreciation of the RMB reduces the converted prices of imported raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2]. - Demand: The recovery of domestic demand is a fundamental support for the strong RMB, which will further lower companies' restocking costs, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active restocking, thus reinforcing demand resilience [2]. - Valuation: The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, enhancing the inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, which is expected to bring liquidity premiums to the food and beverage sector, known for its high foreign ownership [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main lines of focus for investment: 1. Cost benefits, recommending companies such as Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3]. 2. Demand recovery, recommending companies like Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3]. 3. Valuation recovery, recommending companies including Yili Group, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3].