展望后市，星石投资表示，短期看，海外风险边际下行，行业亮点不断，股市活跃资金偏多的背景下， 市场情绪有望延续修复。即将进入7月，中报预告叠加市场预期7月底或有新的政策定调，预计后续业绩 端和政策端对市场的影响或有所加大。 □本报记者 王宇露 中期视角下，星石投资认为，虽然海外关税因素尚未完全明确，但国内政策发力应对是较为确定的。随 着宏观政策持续为经济复苏提供助力，国内经济基本面预期逐步改善，中期股市情绪中枢也不弱,叠加 当前股市估值并不算高，A股权益类资产依旧具有较强的中长期投资性价比。 上周市场上涨，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数（简称"品牌工程指数"）上涨2.17%，报1627.35点。从成 分股的表现看，恒生电子、东方财富、新宝股份等成分股上周表现强势；年初以来，信立泰、安集科 技、丸美生物等成分股涨幅居前。展望后市，机构认为，随着宏观政策持续为经济复苏提供助力，国内 经济基本面预期逐步改善，叠加当前股市估值并不算高，A股权益类资产依旧具有较强的中长期投资性 价比。 相聚资本研究总监、基金经理余晓畅认为，下半年经济本身不是决定股市走向的胜负手，而是可能出现 的变局点，也对应着股市的变盘。宏观经济之外，新兴 ...

非银行业周报 20250629 香港数字资产市场更进一步 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ➢ 数字资产发展《政策宣言》2.0 发布，香港数字资产市场发展有望更进一步。 早在 2022 年 10 月，中国香港特区政府即发布《有关香港虚拟资产发展的政策 宣言》。6 月 26 日，中国香港财库局发表《香港数字资产发展政策宣言 2.0》， 勾画具前瞻性的策略，建设香港成为全球领先资产中心，巩固香港作为国际金融 中心的领先地位。6 月 27 日，财经事务及库务局（财库局）与证券及期货事务 监察委员会（证监会）展开联合咨询，以引入针对虚拟资产交易服务和托管服务 提供者的监管制度。我们认为中国香港数字资产政策加速推进，相关非银机构也 有望在数字资产托管、跨境支付、数字贸易、RWA、供应链金融等业务领域持续 受益。 ➢ 国泰君安国际证券交易牌照获批升级，券商国际业务或迎发展机遇。牌照方 面，6 月 25 日国泰君安国际公告，公司全资子公司国泰君安证券（香港）正式 获中国香港证监会批准，将现有证券交易牌照升级为可提供虚拟资产交易服务 （VASP 牌照），以及在提供虚拟资产交易服务的基础上提供意见。此次牌照升 级后，客户将可在 ...

本周市场表现强势，超出我们预期。1）短期催化主要来自于分母端。近期联储降息预期提升、人民币 汇率升值及以伊军事冲突趋平稳，特朗普访华预期等因素叠加，边际推升风险偏好。2）谁是增量资 金？主动权益公募新发基金边际回暖、杠杆资金快速跟随，此外从银行板块6月中下旬以来的加速行情 推测，险资资金入市进程也可能有所提速；但ETF、外资未有明显增量。 联系人：陈果/郑佳雯 后续如何演绎？市场表现仍是由资金端/估值端主导。战略上我们保持看多，维持下半年指数"更上一层 楼"的判断，但战术上我们认为短期行情未必会演绎持续急涨，而是依然将呈现一定的震荡特征。机构 中长期资金入市+低利率时代下居民金融资产配置比例提升的趋势是中期逻辑，有望使市场震荡中枢整 体上移，短期脉冲式波动也可能阶段性超市场预期。但当前阶段是否能开启资金的正反馈螺旋仍有待观 察：一是今年以来的结构性行情都未走向持续抱团而是呈现轮动特征，表征资金环境对估值容忍度有一 定约束；二是各方增量资金尚未形成明显合力，更多采取观望、被动跟随策略，而非主动流入；三是除 了内需下滑担忧加剧外，7月中报业绩期、全球贸易环境波动及过于乐观的降息预期能否兑现均存在不 确定风险。 责 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨深度报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 高质量发展新周期，重视格局变化 ——证券行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 资本市场进入新质量发展新周期，券商行业转型深化，业务分化愈加明显，行业集中度有望进 一步提升，孕育龙头券商新优势。建议关注格局变化，重点把握低估值龙头、并购重组、高股 息 H 股三条主线。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 盛晓双 SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 32 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 1）经纪业务：与市场交投高度相关，25Q1 市场热度维持较高下贡献 Q1 业绩部分增量。然佣 金费率延续下降趋势下，成交额弹性伴随减弱。我们聚焦测算，结合不同佣金费率下降幅度及 代买净收入增速假设，测算对应所需的股基成交额，中性假设下若佣金率为 0.0170%，代买净 收入增长 0%/5% ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Momentum Model - Construction Idea: The momentum model is designed to capture the trend-following behavior in the market, particularly effective during the end-of-quarter period when funds tend to adjust their positions based on recent performance trends [13][37] - Detailed Construction Process: The model identifies stocks with strong recent performance and allocates more weight to them. The formula used is: $ \text{Momentum Score} = \frac{\text{Price}_{t} - \text{Price}_{t-1}}{\text{Price}_{t-1}} $ where $\text{Price}_{t}$ represents the current price and $\text{Price}_{t-1}$ represents the price at the previous time period [13][37] - Evaluation: The momentum model performs well during the end-of-quarter period, aligning with the characteristic fund allocation behavior [13][37] Model Backtesting Results Momentum Model - Information Ratio (IR): 1.75 [38] - Excess Return: 1.95% [38] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Value Factor - Construction Idea: The value factor aims to identify undervalued stocks by comparing their market price to fundamental metrics such as earnings, book value, and cash flow [13][29] - Detailed Construction Process: The factor is constructed using the following formula: $ \text{Value Score} = \frac{\text{Earnings}}{\text{Price}} + \frac{\text{Book Value}}{\text{Price}} + \frac{\text{Cash Flow}}{\text{Price}} $ where $\text{Earnings}$, $\text{Book Value}$, and $\text{Cash Flow}$ are fundamental metrics, and $\text{Price}$ is the current market price [13][29] - Evaluation: The value factor has shown a significant shift in fund allocation from growth to value stocks since April, indicating its effectiveness in capturing the market's structural adjustments [29][33] Factor Backtesting Results Value Factor - Information Ratio (IR): 1.38 [38] - Excess Return: 1.45% [38]

多图速览>> 本周（6月23日至27日）的五个交易日中，A股三大指数均累计上涨，沪指本周累计涨1.91%，深证成指累计涨3.73%，创业板指累计涨5.69%。板块概念方 面，本周军工、港口航运、稳定币概念股表现活跃。 | 指数 | 周五涨跌幅 | | 周五收盘点数 周五成交额 (亿元) | 近一 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | -0.70% | 3424 | 6057 | | | 深证成指 | 0.34% | 10379 | 9354 | 3 | | 北班20 | 1.06% | 1440 | 348 | 6. | | 科创50 | -0.18% | 988 | 279 | | | 创业板指 | 0.47% | 2124 | 4646 | 5. | | 下班20 | -1.13% | 2708 | 957 | 1. | | 沪深300 | -0.61% | 3922 | 3435 | 1. | ►牛熊股：近50股本周涨超30% 最牛"马字辈"股出炉 Wind数据显示，本周（6月23日到6月27日）共有49只个股涨幅30%。万里马本周累计涨幅达91.97%居 ...

Group 1 - The demand for securities analysts is increasing, with notable personnel changes in various brokerage firms, indicating a strong need for quality research talent [2][3] - As of June 26, 2023, the total number of analysts in the securities industry reached 5,632, an increase of 66 from the beginning of the year and 687 from the same period last year, despite an overall decrease in industry personnel [2][3] - 48 brokerage firms have increased their number of analysts this year, with Dongfang Caifu Securities adding 26 analysts and several others adding over 10 [2][3] Group 2 - The accelerated flow of analysts reflects the determination of brokerage firms to transform and upgrade their research capabilities, especially in light of the economic transition and industry upgrades [3][4] - Brokerage firms are focusing on emerging industries and niche sectors as key areas for business breakthroughs, with many establishing new research institutes dedicated to these fields [4][5] - Positions specifically for analysts focusing on emerging industries are being created, such as the chief analyst for embodied intelligence at Guojin Securities [4][5] Group 3 - The recruitment of talent related to emerging industries is being strengthened, with firms like Huaxi Securities actively seeking analysts in areas such as low-altitude economy and quantum technology [5][6] - The industry is increasingly prioritizing composite talents with technological backgrounds and cross-disciplinary knowledge, indicating a shift towards hiring technical expert analysts [6]

常被视为A股市场行情风向标的券商板块近期频频异动，成交量亦同步明显放大，其中6月25日整个券商板块成交额突破1000亿元，为年内首次。 另外，值得注意的是，近期多只热门券商股登上龙虎榜，且龙虎榜中普遍出现陆股通专用席位身影，多空力量"对决"十分激烈。 近期券商板块价量齐升 单日成交额年内首超千亿元 作为行情风向标的券商股近期频频异动，除了相关公司股价大幅波动外，整个板块成交量近期也骤然放大。 行情数据显示，若以Wind券商行业指数代表券商板块整体，该指数本周开始出现连续涨势，其中6月23日上涨1.14%，6月24日上涨2.59%，6月25日进一步大涨 5.52%，最近两个交易日则继续大幅波动，其中6月27日振幅超过3%。 从具体券商股表现来看，本周券商股悉数上涨，其中国盛金控本周累计涨幅高达36.02%，天风证券、湘财股份本周累计涨幅均超过20%，国海证券、锦龙股份、 太平洋、东方财富本周累计涨幅则均超过10%。 从成交额上看，近期券商板块成交量明显放大，其中6月25日整个板块成交额突破1000亿元，为年内首次。其中互联网券商龙头东方财富自6月24日起连续4个交 易日成交额超过百亿元。 | 交易日期 | 成交 ...

沪指今日收盘下跌0.70%。资金面上看，沪深两市全天特大单净流出69.51亿元，共计1989股特大单净流 入，2663股特大单净流出。 从申万一级行业来看，今日有16个行业特大单资金净流入，通信特大单净流入规模居首，净流入资金 22.18亿元，该行业指数今日上涨1.79%，其次是电子，今日上涨0.92%，净流入资金为21.32亿元，净流 入资金居前的还有有色金属、纺织服饰等行业。 特大单资金净流出的行业共有15个，净流出资金最多的是计算机，特大单净流出资金34.72亿元，其次 是国防军工，特大单净流出资金17.96亿元，净流出资金居前的还有基础化工、非银金融等行业。 具体到个股来看，26股特大单净流入超2亿元，天风证券特大单净流入18.60亿元，净流入资金规模居 首；恒宝股份（维权）特大单净流入资金9.37亿元，位列第二；净流入资金居前的还有大位科技、二六 三、深圳华强等。特大单净流出股中，东方财富特大单净流出资金7.62亿元，净流出资金最多；拉卡 拉、国盛金控特大单净流出资金分别为5.96亿元、5.95亿元，净流出资金规模位列第二、第三。 股价表现方面，特大单资金净流入超2亿元个股今日平均上涨7.91%，表 ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a significant decline, with many stocks closing in the red, particularly in the banking sector [1][5]. Insurance Sector - China Pacific Insurance had a market capitalization of 387.40 billion, with a trading volume of 1.207 billion, experiencing a decrease of 0.68 (-1.81%) [3]. - China Life Insurance had a market capitalization of 355.57 billion, with a trading volume of 3.833 billion, down by 0.62 (-1.08%) [3]. - Ping An Insurance reported a market capitalization of 1,037.26 billion, with a trading volume of 10.68 billion, declining by 0.24 (-2.67%) [3]. Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai had a market capitalization of 1,762.56 billion, with a trading volume of 54.04 billion, down by 3.19 (-1.78%) [3]. - Wuliangye Yibin reported a market capitalization of 215.28 billion, with a trading volume of 19.14 billion, decreasing by 0.55 (-0.46%) [3]. - Shanxi Fenjiu had a market capitalization of 462.61 billion, with a trading volume of 9.74 billion, down by 16.91 (-1.19%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang had a market capitalization of 232.26 billion, with a trading volume of 17.24 billion, decreasing by 3.40 (-0.78%) [3]. - Cambricon Technologies reported a market capitalization of 244.42 billion, with a trading volume of 48.08 billion, down by 25.00 (-4.10%) [3]. - Haiguang Information had a market capitalization of 323.08 billion, with a trading volume of 23.89 billion, declining by 2.75 (-1.94%) [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD had a market capitalization of 282.79 billion, with a trading volume of 46.33 billion, down by 3.20 (-0.95%) [3]. - Great Wall Motors reported a market capitalization of 1,836.54 billion, with a trading volume of 3.08 billion, remaining unchanged [3]. - Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had a market capitalization of 182.56 billion, with a trading volume of 6.01 billion, down by 0.07 (-1.20%) [3]. Oil and Shipping Sector - China COSCO Shipping had a market capitalization of 686.25 billion, with a trading volume of 7.22 billion, down by 0.12 (-1.37%) [3]. - Sinopec reported a market capitalization of 1,577.64 billion, with a trading volume of 10.47 billion, increasing by 0.04 (+0.27%) [3]. - China National Petroleum Corporation had a market capitalization of 232.97 billion, with a trading volume of 8.30 billion, down by 0.05 (-0.88%) [3]. Coal Industry - China Shenhua Energy had a market capitalization of 793.35 billion, with a trading volume of 59.85 billion, down by 0.11 (-0.27%) [3]. - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry reported a market capitalization of 187.11 billion, with a trading volume of 9.74 billion, down by 1.80 (-0.71%) [3]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) had a market capitalization of 1,144.34 billion, with a trading volume of 7.75 billion, increasing by 0.23 (+1.21%) [3]. Other Sectors - China Nuclear Power had a market capitalization of 192.10 billion, with a trading volume of 4.50 billion, down by 0.89 (-2.86%) [4]. - Yangtze Power reported a market capitalization of 739.43 billion, with a trading volume of 6.81 billion, down by 0.04 (-0.43%) [4]. - Dongfang Fortune had a market capitalization of 364.13 billion, with a trading volume of 194.29 billion, down by 0.09 (-0.39%) [4].